4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #95

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Idaho College Murders: Prosecutors Deliver Major Blow to Bryan Kohberger Defense Ahead of Quadruple Homicide Trial​

Bill Thompson argued that the defense was unconvincing in their push to change the venue for the scheduled June 2025 trial.
Thompson insisted the court should “decline to relocate itself, the state and scores of witnesses hundreds of miles only to face another jury pool with similarly high media exposure.”

Prosecutor Thompson did argue in January that a shift to Lewis County, with a population of about 3,500 people and 2,200 active voters, could be a potential fit if Judge felt a change of venue was needed, the Idaho Statesman reported.

However, moving the trial almost 300 miles south to Boise is not convenient, the filing notes. Because of that, prosecutors wrote, “(The) defendant’s motion should be denied.”

They also wrote Idaho law would dictate seating a jury from a nearby county — not one on the other side of the state.
 
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Murder Sheet. The 'Bad Facts' episode that goes over the status of the overall case. If I remember correctly aside from the Colorado case his algorithm/software has been deemed unreliable in other cases/courtrooms. They didn't provide the goods but I'll do some research now and find the things that they are referring to.

Edit:

Update 1-
In United States v. Reynolds (a case that wasn't ultimately overturned because they determined that prosecutors had enough evidence to convicnt even without TRAX) the court found that "there was no supporting evidence that substantiated Ray's claim" of 95% accuracy rate. The same claim that was rejected in Colorado.

Update 2-
In People v. Valdez the court found that Ray's assertion of peer review was "not compelling". And that "it was not clear exactly what TRAX does"

I'll keep adding as I go along.
Thx!
US court of appeals - 6th Circuit

US v Reynolds - I am not finding anything about 95% accuracy rate being rejected. Only support of the district courts decision, which found the maps reliable.

We review a district court’s “admissibility decision” for an abuse of discretion. United States v. Gissantaner, 990 F.3d 457, 463 (6th Cir. 2021). We see no such abuse here.

This case thus concerns only the reliability of TraX’s general technique for mapping an antenna’s coverage area.

So both sides agreed that TraX does not suffer from the defects that have plagued other techniques: its maps do not “overpromise[]” their “precision” by excluding plausible areas where the phone might have been located

The district court reasonably applied these guideposts to TraX’s antenna-coverage mapping.

Two final data points support our conclusion that TraX’s antenna-coverage maps adhere to an accepted approach.

Regarding peer review

For starters, the court conceded that nobody has engaged in any peer review of TraX’s amoeba-shaped coverage areas or its algorithm for determining their sizes. See Reynolds, 2021 WL 3750156, at *3. In other words, no scientists have opined on TraX’s validity (one way or the other) in scientific publications. See Gissantaner, 990 F.3d at 464. But, as the Supreme Court has noted, it is sometimes not surprising that peers have not reviewed a given technique if the relevant issue has never “interested any scientist.” Kumho Tire, 526 U.S. at 151. And, as another court has noted, TraX might have few (if any) uses outside of “criminal investigations” to make it worthy of a scientist’s time. United States v. White, 2023 WL 3161953, at *4 (M.D. Pa. Apr. 27, 2023)

In other words, the company predicted “with a 95 percent accuracy that” a cellphone would have been inside the amoeba-shaped area on a TraX map when it connected to the corresponding antenna. Id., PageID 811, 847. True, Ray testified about internal (not external) tests to estimate this error rate. But he explained how his company conducted them, and the district court identified no “serious deficiencies” in his methodology. Bonds, 12 F.3d at 560; see Reynolds, 2021 WL 3750156, at *4.Dr. Jovanovic, by contrast, asked and answered the coverage-accuracy question. Looking at this issue from the perspective of a cellphone provider trying to map its network, he testified that TraX’s coverage areas were nearly universally wrong. Jovanovic Tr., R.125, PageID 1234–38. He thus disagreed with Ray’s 95% accuracy rate—but for an entirely different question that was “immaterial to the Daubert” inquiry. Mitchell, 365 F.3d at 239. Whether a wedge-shaped map or an amoeba-shaped map better displaysan antenna’s real-world coverage area is beside the point to whether a phone would likely fall within the amoeba-shaped area. In fact, Dr. Jovanovic conceded as much. He noted that the coverage “accuracy” question “in terms of mapping” is a “substantial[ly] different” question than “the probability that [a] phone would be in the area indicated” by TraX’s maps. Jovanovic Tr., R.125, PageID 1235. He added that one could “achieve a hundred percent accuracy” for the latter question by drawing big enough coverage areas. Id., PageID 1307. But he never opined on this location-accuracy question for TraX’s maps. So the district court reasonably credited Ray’s low error rate because it stood alone.

To reiterate, we reach a narrow holding. This case’s record indicates that TraX’s antenna-coverage maps adhered to the methods that courts have permitted. Both sides agreed that TraX mapped an antenna’s coverage area (and so a phone’s general location) more broadly than the actual coverage area. And undisputed testimony showed that this conservative choice resulted in a low error rate on the relevant question that the government sought to answer: whether a phone that connected to the antenna would fall within TraX’s coverage area. On this record, the district court did not abuse its discretion in permitting Detective Heikkila to opine about these maps.

Daubert starts at page 17

I noticed a lot of US v Reynolds cases. If there is a different US v Reynolds, please share.
 
Great Q's in State's Objection to Deft' Motion for Change of Venue.

@Nila Aella Thx for linking St's Objxn.

From page 7, my favorite ¶, esp'ly the second sentence:
"This Court must ask itself: would an individual who was asked for their opinion about an upcoming jury trial continue a survey if they had no opinions about any upcoming jury trials? And once the survey started, would a prudent, thoughtful, and conscientious person who is reluctant to pass judgment with limited information opine to a stranger whether they believe a criminally accused is guilty of murder?"

Rather doubtful imo that prudent, thoughtful, and conscientious persons would be casually opine about guilt/non-guilt to strangers on the phone.
But multitudes of ignorant BOZOs would be more than willing to give their fact-free opinions imo.

_____________________
08/12/2024 States Objection Defendants Motion to Change Venue
It is truly heartening to see the state's handling of this case! The DT is making appropriate motions and the State is responding thoughtfully IMO.

I believe this showcase of abiding by the process by both sides will mean that once a verdict is in, there will be no issues with the appeals. IMO
 
Thx!
US court of appeals - 6th Circuit

US v Reynolds - I am not finding anything about 95% accuracy rate being rejected. Only support of the district courts decision, which found the maps reliable.

We review a district court’s “admissibility decision” for an abuse of discretion. United States v. Gissantaner, 990 F.3d 457, 463 (6th Cir. 2021). We see no such abuse here.

This case thus concerns only the reliability of TraX’s general technique for mapping an antenna’s coverage area.

So both sides agreed that TraX does not suffer from the defects that have plagued other techniques: its maps do not “overpromise[]” their “precision” by excluding plausible areas where the phone might have been located

The district court reasonably applied these guideposts to TraX’s antenna-coverage mapping.

Two final data points support our conclusion that TraX’s antenna-coverage maps adhere to an accepted approach.

Regarding peer review

For starters, the court conceded that nobody has engaged in any peer review of TraX’s amoeba-shaped coverage areas or its algorithm for determining their sizes. See Reynolds, 2021 WL 3750156, at *3. In other words, no scientists have opined on TraX’s validity (one way or the other) in scientific publications. See Gissantaner, 990 F.3d at 464. But, as the Supreme Court has noted, it is sometimes not surprising that peers have not reviewed a given technique if the relevant issue has never “interested any scientist.” Kumho Tire, 526 U.S. at 151. And, as another court has noted, TraX might have few (if any) uses outside of “criminal investigations” to make it worthy of a scientist’s time. United States v. White, 2023 WL 3161953, at *4 (M.D. Pa. Apr. 27, 2023)

In other words, the company predicted “with a 95 percent accuracy that” a cellphone would have been inside the amoeba-shaped area on a TraX map when it connected to the corresponding antenna. Id., PageID 811, 847. True, Ray testified about internal (not external) tests to estimate this error rate. But he explained how his company conducted them, and the district court identified no “serious deficiencies” in his methodology. Bonds, 12 F.3d at 560; see Reynolds, 2021 WL 3750156, at *4.Dr. Jovanovic, by contrast, asked and answered the coverage-accuracy question. Looking at this issue from the perspective of a cellphone provider trying to map its network, he testified that TraX’s coverage areas were nearly universally wrong. Jovanovic Tr., R.125, PageID 1234–38. He thus disagreed with Ray’s 95% accuracy rate—but for an entirely different question that was “immaterial to the Daubert” inquiry. Mitchell, 365 F.3d at 239. Whether a wedge-shaped map or an amoeba-shaped map better displaysan antenna’s real-world coverage area is beside the point to whether a phone would likely fall within the amoeba-shaped area. In fact, Dr. Jovanovic conceded as much. He noted that the coverage “accuracy” question “in terms of mapping” is a “substantial[ly] different” question than “the probability that [a] phone would be in the area indicated” by TraX’s maps. Jovanovic Tr., R.125, PageID 1235. He added that one could “achieve a hundred percent accuracy” for the latter question by drawing big enough coverage areas. Id., PageID 1307. But he never opined on this location-accuracy question for TraX’s maps. So the district court reasonably credited Ray’s low error rate because it stood alone.

To reiterate, we reach a narrow holding. This case’s record indicates that TraX’s antenna-coverage maps adhered to the methods that courts have permitted. Both sides agreed that TraX mapped an antenna’s coverage area (and so a phone’s general location) more broadly than the actual coverage area. And undisputed testimony showed that this conservative choice resulted in a low error rate on the relevant question that the government sought to answer: whether a phone that connected to the antenna would fall within TraX’s coverage area. On this record, the district court did not abuse its discretion in permitting Detective Heikkila to opine about these maps.

Daubert starts at page 17

I noticed a lot of US v Reynolds cases. If there is a different US v Reynolds, please share.
That was really interesting! Thank you for posting that.

I tried to find more info just now because I recall reading that the decision of the Colorado judge who banned the TraX technology was later overruled by the appellate court. Now, that's just what I remember reading a couple of months ago, but I didn't locate it just now when I looked. I don't think TraX was at the heart of that overruling, however.

Also, from what I understand, TraX has been successfully used in numerous prosecution cases. Again, that's just what I remember reading. I don't have enough time to go down that rabbit hole just now.
 
That was really interesting! Thank you for posting that.

I tried to find more info just now because I recall reading that the decision of the Colorado judge who banned the TraX technology was later overruled by the appellate court. Now, that's just what I remember reading a couple of months ago, but I didn't locate it just now when I looked. I don't think TraX was at the heart of that overruling, however.

Also, from what I understand, TraX has been successfully used in numerous prosecution cases. Again, that's just what I remember reading. I don't have enough time to go down that rabbit hole just now.
I think it's problematic that both sides use it. Local law enforcement/prosecution and the defense. Anything other than GPS is bordering on junk science IMO. Because you can't possibly account for all variables.

My original argument is that if two professionals are disagreeing while interpreting the same data set. A reasonable juror is more likely to put favorable weight on a FBI witness and their methods/procedures, IMO, than they would Sy Ray and the TRAX software.

Let's also keep in mind that not every case gets help from the FBI. So the opposition to TRAX is not going to be the typical type we see in other cases.

MOO
 
Murder Sheet. The 'Bad Facts' episode that goes over the status of the overall case. If I remember correctly aside from the Colorado case his algorithm/software has been deemed unreliable in other cases/courtrooms. They didn't provide the goods but I'll do some research now and find the things that they are referring to.

Edit:

Update 1-
In United States v. Reynolds (a case that wasn't ultimately overturned because they determined that prosecutors had enough evidence to convicnt even without TRAX) the court found that "there was no supporting evidence that substantiated Ray's claim" of 95% accuracy rate. The same claim that was rejected in Colorado.

Update 2-
In People v. Valdez the court found that Ray's assertion of peer review was "not compelling". And that "it was not clear exactly what TRAX does"

I'll keep adding as I go along.
People v Valdez. California Court of appeals 3rd district.

All I am finding with mention of ZetX is this one which is an opinion. It relates to a heresay objection that was overruled.The court did not hear from an expert from ZetX, but from the detective that did the mapping. JMO

"the visual mapping of the cell tower estimations prepared by the 'algorithm' amounted to data analysis prepared by a third party who was not present for cross examination." This evidence, according to defendant, contained multiple layers of hearsay and the "statements" represented by this evidence were being admitted for their truth, and that makes it inadmissible under People v. Sanchez (2016) 63

In light of the evidence discussed in connection with defendant's ineffective assistance of counsel claim ante, we conclude that, even if it was error to admit the video mapping evidence over defendant's hearsay objection, any such error is harmless under both the Watson and Chapman standards.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwirgKHK2vWHAxULJNAFHQ1nLQ0QFnoECAwQAQ&url=https://casetext.com/case/people-v-valdez-2100&usg=AOvVaw1zr2u1NKpnM5SDgDghawQX&opi=89978449

Still looking for more.
JMO
 


How about footnote 5 on page 10...

The probable cause affidavit did not explicitly state that Defendant was “near” the actual home of the victims, but stated that Defendant was in the vicinity of a cell tower servicing the area of the victim’s residence twelve times in the months before the homicides.

For what it's worth that tower is I think 11 miles from BK's apartment and I believe it has a 20 mile radius. So BK could of pinged that tower from his apartment it would seem.

MOO.
 
How about footnote 5 on page 10...

The probable cause affidavit did not explicitly state that Defendant was “near” the actual home of the victims, but stated that Defendant was in the vicinity of a cell tower servicing the area of the victim’s residence twelve times in the months before the homicides.

For what it's worth that tower is I think 11 miles from BK's apartment and I believe it has a 20 mile radius. So BK could of pinged that tower from his apartment it would seem.

MOO.
You could be right. I am not totally convinced though. I am sure it will be discussed during trial. I lived in a complex across the street from his complex when I went to WSU. There is a hill adjacent to BK's apartment complex that contains multiple apartment complexes. His apartment complex is not on the top of the hill (as indicated by the address being on NE "Valley" Rd). I have read that cell tower servicing can be impacted by terrain, building, etc.

Curious though...since there is a cell tower closer to his apartment than the one in Moscow and the PCA states his cell phone pinged that tower, would it still ping all towers within range?
 
I think it's problematic that both sides use it. Local law enforcement/prosecution and the defense. Anything other than GPS is bordering on junk science IMO. Because you can't possibly account for all variables.

My original argument is that if two professionals are disagreeing while interpreting the same data set. A reasonable juror is more likely to put favorable weight on a FBI witness and their methods/procedures, IMO, than they would Sy Ray and the TRAX software.

Let's also keep in mind that not every case gets help from the FBI. So the opposition to TRAX is not going to be the typical type we see in other cases.

MOO
I don't know the extent of what the TraX science entails, but it's been successfully used in cases where the defendants were convicted. That doesn't tell us whether the juries in those cases put a lot of weight on TraX evidence--there may have been ample other evidence that was sufficient to convict in those cases.

I agree that FBI witnesses will have high credibility with most jurors. But, SR, being former law enforcement, may also be found credible.

So, to my mind, that brings us back to the DNA evidence. I think that will be what convicts BK (or doesn't, because it's touch DNA). I think we'll see DNA experts arguing on both sides.

The State needs to bring their best game with this case because AT is no sloucher.

Some here have proposed that BK intended a trial all along. I don't know that I agree with that but it'd be interesting to know whether AT came up with the defense ideas on her own...
 
How about footnote 5 on page 10...

The probable cause affidavit did not explicitly state that Defendant was “near” the actual home of the victims, but stated that Defendant was in the vicinity of a cell tower servicing the area of the victim’s residence twelve times in the months before the homicides.

For what it's worth that tower is I think 11 miles from BK's apartment and I believe it has a 20 mile radius. So BK could of pinged that tower from his apartment it would seem.

MOO.

IMO, they would not use that since there since a cell phone will connect automatically to the tower with the best signal and there is one in Moscow. Otherwise, his phone would ping thousands of times on his own cell phone tower.
 
You could be right. I am not totally convinced though. I am sure it will be discussed during trial. I lived in a complex across the street from his complex when I went to WSU. There is a hill adjacent to BK's apartment complex that contains multiple apartment complexes. His apartment complex is not on the top of the hill (as indicated by the address being on NE "Valley" Rd). I have read that cell tower servicing can be impacted by terrain, building, etc.

Curious though...since there is a cell tower closer to his apartment than the one in Moscow and the PCA states his cell phone pinged that tower, would it still ping all towers within range?

To answer your question... yes.
 

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