I believe that about 90% of cases that have a committal hearing are committed for trial. The magistrate just has to decide if a properly instructed jury MAY find the accused guilty. So with all the circumstancial evidence I believe it is almost 100% certain GBC will be committed for trial.
The REAL cross-examination (rather than establishing the evidence) will happen at the trial. Depending on the veracity of the evidence that is established after cross examination, I would not at the moment venture the chances of GBC found guilty at trial. At the moment we know of very strong circumstancial evidence but there seems, from what has been revealed so far, to be no evidence that places GBC actually at Kholo bridge. I am sure that is a point the Defence will cling to. I will be very interested whether at committal if DNA evidence of Allison's blood in the Captiva will be established. It is important to remember that it is incumbent on the prosecution to prove his guilt, not the reverse for GBC to prove his innocence. There is a difference and he is not obliged to take the witness stand. It will be interesting, when it goes to trial whether he will elect to take the witness stand. If he does that will leave him wide open to difficult questions on cross examination.
I fully agree about the odds.
Also, your mention of the blood in the Captiva- I've been really worried about this too.
If the prosecution do not have this definitively, IMO, the case becomes quite poor. So much hinges on this evidence, even though it wont be proven that the blood resulted from that nights events conclusively.
The hair will be interesting too.
and, thanks for going tomorrow. Wish I could go also.