Yes, the postal police said this about Filomena's room long before they discovered there was a dead body behind the locked door . Agreed: if the break-in was authentic and not actually staged, then it would be plausible that Guede (whom I would agree, seemed to not be held accountable for his criminal actions, for some strange reason) might fall back on habits in a pinch, and with the cottage empty for the holiday weekend.
The problem is there are two competing scenarios, which are mutually exclusive. Either the police came to a conclusion too quickly, and Knox and Sollecito are simply wrongfully suspected, arrested, and convicted - or the police are shrewder than we think, and the 2 did in fact have involvement with this crime (simulation, traces, making a record of innocence with the calls on Nov 2).
They cannot both be true. They are diametrically opposed scenarios. And this is what drives me crazy: I don't want to be wrong, to view the defendants wrongly - whether as innocents railroaded, or guilty but hiding in plain sight. I see both sides too clearly.