I've a feeling Knox will not be extradited. First, the excuse in both countries will be further appeals. Second, I don't think Italy will be that keen on extraditing her. It is an international embarrassment. They may go through the motions but I don't think they will push that hard.
We will see.
I doubt she will be. The treaty is pretty clear about it IMO.
In order for an extradition to happen, the requesting country has to convince the State department that it is a legitimate request that falls within the orbit of the treaty. If they succeed at that, then the State department assumes the role of prosecutor and requests an extradition order from a Federal judge. At that point Italy would have to supply a record of the evidence, the proceedings at trial and the judgement argument. The federal judge would then examine that to determine if the Italian court made a proper determination based on the evidence. But, it would be done in the context of US law and procedure, since extradition is only allowable under those circumstances.
There would be a number of problems with this. Firstly, it is clear that the rights of AK and RS were violated during the initial interrogation, both under US law and under Italian law. The Italians don't seem to have a problem with this, but a US federal judge most certainly would. any evidence gathered from that would be inadmissible under US procedures, and therefore cannot be considered.
Secondly, most of the physical evidence presented by the prosecutions forensic experts was disputed by the defence. In the first appeal trial the court appointed independent experts who rebutted most of that evidence and determined that there was significant malpractice in the collection and analysis of the evidence. A US judge looking at that evidence is going to either defer to the opinion of those court appointed experts, or appoint his/her own panel of experts who will come to the same conclusions (because they are scientifically correct). That is going to make the final verdict reached in Italy appear in error.
There will essentially be a final trial, but in a US federal court, with US attorneys having to make argument based on US standards. Other than supplying information, Italy would not be involved. With what we know about the evidence and the case, I find it hard to believe that would happen, or that it would pass muster before a federal judge.
I think what will happen is that Italy will request extradition, the State department will say no (for the reasons explained above) and that will be the end of it. I don't think that either country will want it to go to an open US court where the Italian judgement will be torn to pieces in public.