OK...first things first.
A few days ago I was attempting to triangulate the cell records, the Encase activity files for the desktop & laptop, and statements...trying to learn if there was something that would help us better support that Caylee was alive or not when Casey left G&C's ~4:11PM Monday, 6/16. In doing this I made a huge gaffe reading the Encase activity report. Posted the whole stinkin' mess w/o noticing the goof. Within a minute or two I got a short PM from JWG very kindly pointing it out. Sooo...I was able to yank the post and retool. In the end, it took me in another direction. So...big TY to JWG for (a) catching the initial mistake & pointing it out so quickly, and (b) bouncing around this latest, but, not fully resolved observation. :highfive:
Alright then, onto the thing.
Conclusion/Speculation: The Encase activity reports are shifted 1 hr earlier than actual. For example, activity level shown as 2-3PM on the report ACTUALLY describes the activity level that occurred 3-4PM. I have one or two ideas on how this might've happened, but, lets save that for later.
IF this conclusion is correct, it may support the following speculation:
- 6/16 Heavy HP Desktop activity 3-4PM (shown as 2-3PM) can be attributed to Casey since George had left for work <3PM
- During Casey's first opportunity for privacy after George left for work <3PM she spent a significant amount of the time before she left ~4:11PM - on the desktop computer nline:
- Hence, Caylee was likely still alive when George left ~2:45PM 6/16
Some other potentially useful speculation w/o details that would make this even longer:
a) Caylee's naptime was typically 2-4PM based on JWG's Photobucket upload analysis, as well as Casey's recurring cell call duration pattern during this time of the day (ETA: updated time per JWG's owing to central vs. eastern time on Pb records)
b) George statement re: seeing Casey & Caylee leave @ 12:50 was a description of 6/9 vs. 6/16. George called the house 1 minute before he called Casey’s cell @ 3:04PM 6/16 indicating George knew Casey was @ the house when he left
c) The %’s shown in the Encase report may reflects the % of the hour listed during which the computer processor was active. IOW 100% = 60 minutes of activity
OK...here's how we get there.
Working backwards from Tuesday 6/17...
Observing Casey’s cell records for Tuesday, 6/17, it appears she arrived in the area of G&C’s ~2:30PM and waited to either observe George leave, or until a time when she could be confident he was gone. Between 2:30 and 2:49PM Casey placed/took calls to/from Ricardo, Tony and Clint. It appears George left ~2:49PM at which time Casey’s cell went inactive for 57 minutes.
At 3:47PM Casey resumed a light texting conversation with Tony that concluded @ 4:05PM when she called him and left sometime between 4:05-4:36PM.
In agreement with the cell activity that placed Casey @ G&C’s ~2:49PM-4:05PM we have the computer forensics report that tells us the nursing home pic of Caylee with Alex was copied onto the laptop 6/17 3:28PM. (Note: This is the pic that LE used to check the clock of the laptop vs. the camera vs. the memory card to confirm the pic was indeed taken on 6/15).
Also in agreement w/ the cell activity AND the computer forensics report, Casey sent a Facebook message to Amy, 3:15PM 6/17, "cheer up me lady! i love you and can't wait to finally get you moved in". (ETA: Updated Fb after JWG confirmed for me. :thumb
Note that the Encase report shows for the laptop on Tuesday, 6/17:
2-3PM: 80% activity (e.g. perhaps 48 minutes)
3-4PM: 0% activity
These timestamps are in direct conflict w/ the forensics report regarding the downloading of the nursing home pic AND the timeframe in which Casey was @ G&C’s per the cell pings AND the timing of Casey's Facebook message to Amy. However, they synchronize perfectly if the Encase activity report is shifted 1 hour.
On pages 2844 and 2845 are two screen shots of a computer forensic application called
Encase Law Enforcement.
Code:
[FONT=Courier New][B]HP Desktop Compaq Laptop[/B]
[B]Monday, 6/16:[/B]
[INDENT]12AM 1AM 49% *****
7AM 8AM 74% *******
8AM 9AM 15% **
10AM 11AM 80% ********
11AM 12PM 49% ***** 0%
1PM 2PM 1%
2PM 3PM 82% ******** 1%
3PM 4PM 0%
4PM 5PM 1%
11PM 12AM 23% ** [/INDENT]
[B]Tuesday, 6/17:[/B]
[INDENT]12AM 1AM 3%
1AM 2AM 6% *
3AM 4AM 36% ****
4AM 5AM 5% *
8AM 9AM 5% *
12PM 1PM 26% ***
1PM 2PM 3%
2PM 3PM 80% ********
3PM 4PM 0%
4PM 5PM 13% *
7PM 8PM 54% *****
8PM 9PM 44% ****
9PM 10PM 100% **********
10PM 11PM 65% *****
11PM 12AM 6% * [/INDENT] [/FONT]
*snipped for Encase data & some times w/ 0% activity added for continuity)*
Looking @ Monday, 6/16, to see if the same time shift may apply to the Desktop computer…
Casey was on the phone w/ Amy 1:44-2:20PM, and on the phone again w/ Jesse @ 2:52PM-3:03PM. Although Casey could have certainly multi-tasked, consider that this phone activity would have significantly impacted her ability to be active on the computer…leaving only 32 minutes (or ~53%) free & clear during the 2-3PM hour vs. 82% activity (49 minutes) shown on the Encase report .
In contrast, between 3-4PM Casey had almost no activity on her cell phone. She wrapped up her call w/ Jesse @ 3:04PM in order to take the incoming call from George, which lasted <1minute. She also placed one call to Tony that lasted <1minute. She did, however, receive 3 MySpace alerts to her cell phone during this period. If we continue w/ the time-based interpretation of the Encase report, the desktop was in use ~49 minutes. FWIW, if Casey’s cell MySpace alerts were directly or indirectly in response to her desktop activity, these timestamps being 3:23PM through 3:39PM, spanned 16 minutes…and left 49-16=33 minutes of activity to split before and/or after 3:23 & 3:39PM.
IMHO, the above strongly indicates the HP desktop Encase report time is also shifted by 1 hour (e.g. activity level shown as 2-3PM on the report ACTUALLY describes the activity level that occurred 3-4PM), similar to the laptop.
Now, IF one buys the conclusion, one can still interpret it to support a variety of theories. However, IMHO, the degree of usage on the desktop by Casey for what appears to have been 3-4PM, including what appears to have been MySpace activity can be factored in to
support Caylee was likely still alive when George left ~2:45PM 6/16. Otherwise, Casey's first activities in private that afternoon would have more likely been consumed in dealing with something of higher priority than MySpace, etc.