Thanks Cartman, I know it was a bit of a longshot but I thought it would be interesting to see if any particular landmark correlated with those displays.
Bart, if you take all of the sexual assaults in the area prior to the abductions (I know some may not be linked), there are a few things that stand out:
* All occur within the boundaries of Claremont (even the Swanbourne rapes)
* None (with the exception of the Taxi attack in DM's book) occur on the Northern side of the railway tracks (Tracks a possible buffer boundary)
* Most earlier attacks occurred closer to the railway line near to Subways
* Most earlier attacks occur more in the periphery of Claremont CBD
* MM is seen coming from the direction of the overpass
* SS abductor is seen coming from the direction of the Claremont Subway
I would reason that either Claremont was part of the killer's daily commute (through the subways perhaps) or that the killer lived in a suburb such as Mt Claremont, Daglish or even Wembley.
What was the car park to the north of Claremont Train Station like in 1995? Was it well lit?
It was dark. There's a proper car park there now. Back in the day it was just dirt and gravel and maybe some old bitumen. But it wasn't flat (it was not only sloped, but also bumpy and uneven), there were no curbs and no dedicated car spaces. It was "park where ever you can". During the day the car park was mostly full - park and ride commuters and people who worked in Claremont would park there.
Aside: It did occur to me earlier that JR could have crossed the tracks and been taken in this car park but I think it's unlikely as there is no reason to go there. There's hardly any traffic at that time of night so there wouldn't be a reason to go over to that side. Posters have testified here that as women they would prioritise safety and not walk to dark areas but SS chose to walk down dark and deserted western end of St Quentins rather than the closer, much more well lit and higher traffic route to the phone boxes across the road from The Conti. But on that occasion she was walking to a phone box whereas I can't see a reason to cross the tracks.
Consider these things;
1. The Cott Hotel abduction - circa 1989.
This seems to have an element of opportunism. Guy sees girls passed out so he abducts here. It's possible the guy was in the pub and saw her leave, followed her etc, but it's more likely he was sitting in his car watching people when he saw her walk to her car. He took her to Lakeway Drive in, Narla Way Swanbourne. North West side of Claremont.
Aside: Swanbourne High is also on Narla Rd and where LW went to school.
Could this abduction be the CSK's first victim?
2. The Swanbourne rapes - Jan 1, 1993
3. Claremont Subway attempted rape - Jan 1, 1994
Both towards the north west access to Claremont. Both on New Year's Eve. So for two years in a row someone (probably the same person) chose New Years Eve as the time he would sexually attack women.
What sort of person would do this? SK experts say it's common for SK's to use alcohol or drugs when committing their crimes but I'm not so sure in this case. Our guy seems to have played the percentages and I'm not sure if I can see him DUI all the way out to those dump sites and back. Maybe amphetamines, but I think alcohol is likely.
So if this assumption is correct, it's probably also unlikely the CSK was out partying (i.e. drinking) on NYE and then left his friends at say midnight and went and stalked and raped (or attempted to rape) women.
One NYE rape in the same area would lead me to think a one off guy who was drunk and saw an opportunity. Two rapes in consecutive years in the same area suggest a degree of pre-meditation and planning and probably committed by a loner who rather than celebrating with mates was stalking women.
So a lot of the early attacks (if we assume they are also CSK) seem to be focused on the North West access to Claremont. Here's a map of important locations;
Assumption 1: The above incidents are the early work of the CSK
Assumption 2: Those locations give us a hint as to which way he would usually access Claremont
Assumption 3: Rossmo's theory holds some relevance in that there's a buffer zone
From this we'd be able to hypothesize 2 different buffer zones and two accompanying red zones (zones in the ovals and buffer between those ovals and Claremont)
I like the smaller red zone in Mt Claremont for the following reasons;
1. The Cott Hotel/Lakeway Drive in abduction suggests this man is local and is familiar with the Drive-in.
2. While it looks close on the map, there's a geographic and social separation of City Beach to Claremont. Typically different people who hang out at different places and with different social groups.
3. I think a person living City Beach and North would be more inclined to start dumping North of the city rather than south of the city.
I'm quite openly hot for LW. The above is completely circumstantial and based on nested hypotheses and as soon as you base one hypothesis on another hypothesis you're increasing the unlikelihood. The other issue is of DNA - ifn they have it then he's not the guy. I still have him in front of the pack but is it possible that LW was responsible for a heap of these sexual attacks but not the CSK? Also consider - surely out of these attacks and the Rowe Park W@nker, police have been able to get a description?
