CA - ‘Uncharted territory’ as Lake Oroville rises toward damaged dam

[CARIIS]

59 mins ago

FEMA stages at Travis Air Force Base in response to Oroville Dam situation


Logistics workers the Federal Emergency Management Agency coordinate the delivery of relief supplies that are being stored at Travis Air Force Base as a contingency against a possible failure of the auxiliary spillway at Oroville Dam. The base is acting as a staging area for FEMA personnel, providing space for necessary equipment and supplies.


http://www.timesheraldonline.com/ge...ce-base-in-response-to-oroville-dam-situation

 

[CARIIS]

[FONT=&amp]........




experts around the country are focusing on a leading suspect: Tiny bubbles.

[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]The prospect is simple, yet terrifying and has been the culprit in a number of near disasters at dams across the globe since engineers discovered about 50 years ago. In a process called "cavitation," water flowing fast and in large volumes can rumble over small cracks, bumps or other imperfections in concrete dam spillways as they release water during wet years. The billions of gallons of water bumping off the surface at 50 miles an hour create enormous turbulence that can form tiny water vapor bubbles that collapse with powerful force, and like jackhammers, chisel apart concrete.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]same phenomenon nearly caused the collapse of one of America's other largest dams, Glen Canyon, a 710-foot tall behemoth on the Colorado River, in 1983.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Awesome piece:[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]https://www.arcamax.com/currentnews/newsheadlines/s-1927692?fs[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]"It starts with small holes, but it can break off big chunks of concrete," said Paul Tullis, a professor emeritus of civil engineering at Utah State University and cavitation expert. "It's like a big grinder. It causes concrete to be torn apart."
[/FONT]report offers the first indication from officials of what might have caused the catastrophic failure of the spillway. It’s unclear whether the rainwater was a primary reason for the spillway damage or one of many.

summary of the incident, prepared by state water officials four days after the crater in the concrete chute appeared, said water from heavy rains hit the hillsides where the massive concrete spillway runs.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-oroville-dam-cause-spillway-20170216-story.html

 

[CARIIS]

Here is the radar from NOAA -

We’ve already had two big events like this so far this year, now forecasts show a clear pattern of a heavily moisture laden “atmospheric river” taking aim directly onto the Oroville Dam watershed over the next week. Accumulated precipitation forecasts show that the Lake Orovile watershed will score a direct hit with the maximum amount of precipitation over the next 10 days (see graphic near bottom of this article).

“atmospheric river” =idendtical to a hurricane only difference is they do not rotate

2,000 mile long river going across the area look at it:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/02/15/super-soaker-atmospheric-river-taking-aim-on-beleaguered-orovilledam/

USGS records small Earthquakes near #OrovilleDam

Weight transfer is what it is called - just learned that.


Two small Earthquakes were recorded near Lake Oroville in the last 24 hrs, which appear to be a result of the fast lake level changes, and the subsequent release of pressure from water weight. Note the two yellow dots on the USGS map below:


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/02/16/usgs-records-small-earthquakes-near-orovilledam/

 

[CARIIS]

Feb 15:

The long-term forecast has rainfall totals withing the watershed that are showing the exact spot where Lake Oroville watershed is located will get 11.62 inches of rain over the next 10 days, the most accumulated rainfall in the entire western USA


Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article133030359.html#storylink=cpy

The operating manual is from 1952! Used now. Absurd. .......tied to outdated weather models. At Oroville, the manual cites weather patterns prior to the 1950s, and data doesn’t account for the catastrophic floods of 1986 and 1997
Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article133030359.html#storylink=cpy

3220​

Latest imagery its kinda hard to make out where calif is!!! go 140W on the bottom and go up!!

https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog...as-a-brief-break-before-getting-pounded-again

If anyone knows anyone in that area pls pass along because news seems all over the place- this info is from the weather people not a local weatherperson !!

 

[Elley Mae]

A report prepared for crews responding to damage at a Northern California dam suggests rain may have contributed to a massive crater in the main concrete spillway for Lake Oroville.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/16/the-latest-water-levels-at-lake-behind-dam-keep-dropping/


Whoda thunk it.

 

[CARIIS]

A report prepared for crews responding to damage at a Northern California dam suggests rain may have contributed to a massive crater in the main concrete spillway for Lake Oroville.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/16/the-latest-water-levels-at-lake-behind-dam-keep-dropping/


Whoda thunk it.

How could that be possible? Smug face now.

Can't find it now, (wonder if pulled?) saw with my own two little eyes - Video. . South of there (168 miles city began with a M past Modesto) --the military is moving in.

This is not FEMA/National Guard. The guy would not allow himself to be filmed - saw him walking toward the resident filming - saw his uniform but it looked like he indicated to the resident asking for info to take the camera off him as he got close.

And he spoke to her i will try and find it again for you guys.

In some way I suppose if they know - really would evacuating help in the area. Probably not--it "worked" cause nothing happened. Why cause mass panic, and get a bunch of people trapped in their cars?

I did not realize that the lake had these long tails on it after the main lake.

Goggle images

Scary days ahead

 

[Tulessa]

This brings back memories from this Disaster.

http://hatfieldmccoycountry.com/buffalo-creek-disaster/

Hubby had several family members involved. Thankfully, they all survived.

 

[watergirl62]

Foothills Fault System.

Wonder how the faults running through California impacts the Lake Oroville and surrounds?

Generally, induced earthquakes caused by mass loading, in this case from water, will likely occur along these faults. Hoover Dam construction and the filling of Lake Mead fall into this category of induced earthquakes. They will subside once the system equilibrates.

If the system is also saturated and subjected to (too much) hydrostatic pressure, it will exacerbate the situation. Induced earthquakes associated with fracking and wastewater injection which oversaturates and over pressurizes the formations peripheral to faults fall into this category. Interesting that most of the earthquakes in these systems occur in very old crystalline basement rock formations. Oklahoma is working very hard to control this issue.

I would have to research the local geology to be any more specific than that.

 

[pandamonium]

A pretty basic article about the impact of Oroville Dam:

http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/care-oroville-dam/

This is the road I used to take from my mom's house in Oroville to my sister's in Yuba City.
https://www.facebook.com/ricefarmingtv/videos/1085215318251659/

Now that I figured out my pw for my pc (instead of my phone lol) I can share more pertinent info. All of my family has chosen to stay away this week in light of the fears but every day that goes by they are safe, they second guess themselves. There is truly no way to know with 100% certainty.

National Guard is still in and around Oroville and surrounding communities to assist if/when needed. Fema is setting up base camps with supplies as well in case of emergency.

 

[pandamonium]

This site has statistical info:
current snowpack in Sierra's:
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action

input/output of Lake Oroville:
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO&d=16-Feb-2017+16:01&span=12hours

There are also numerous FB groups (not sure if I'm allowed to post but if I am I'll share upon request) that are providing up to day info. A lot of rumors among them as well so you have to weed thru the junk IF the admins don't but still good info for the most part.

Incredible video from Oroville Fish Hatchery:
https://www.facebook.com/100010308437

Latest press release 2/16/17 at noon. So far they have had at least one a day around noon to provide updates.
https://www.facebook.com/KCRA3/videos/10155039314256514/

Article showing reservoir levels:
http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article133224899.html

 

[CARIIS]

This site has statistical info:
current snowpack in Sierra's:
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action

input/output of Lake Oroville:
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO&d=16-Feb-2017+16:01&span=12hours

There are also numerous FB groups (not sure if I'm allowed to post but if I am I'll share upon request) that are providing up to day info. A lot of rumors among them as well so you have to weed thru the junk IF the admins don't but still good info for the most part.

Incredible video from Oroville Fish Hatchery:
https://www.facebook.com/100010308437

Latest press release 2/16/17 at noon. So far they have had at least one a day around noon to provide updates.
https://www.facebook.com/KCRA3/videos/10155039314256514/

Article showing reservoir levels:
http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article133224899.html

Wow eeeeeeeee that was the military guy that I was talking about ! Cause it was Mercet that he was talking about. I could only remember "M", boy that guy is in trouble!!

it was FB.

His eyes glared when he was talking about him and what he told that lady!!

At the same time, he did acknowledge that they were there (168 miles away from this dam) and were sandbagging.

IMO, there is some irony here - why has the national guard been called in to sandbag 168 miles away from this dam??

Oroville Fish Hatchery FB page has been pulled? What did it show??

 

[pandamonium]

Wow eeeeeeeee that was the military guy that I was talking about ! Cause it was Mercet that he was talking about. I could only remember "M", boy that guy is in trouble!!

His eyes glared when he was talking about him and what he told that lady!!

At the same time, he did acknowledge that they were there (168 miles away from this dam) and were sandbagging.

IMO, there is some irony here - why has the national guard been called in to sandbag 168 miles away from this dam??

Yes, that video went viral so there's no way upper command wouldn't have found out!

Oroville Dam (and surround reservoirs as well) feed into the Feather River, Sacramento River and eventually into the Pacific Ocean so that water literally travels down and thru the entire state. Most of Southern CA gets their water supply from Oroville. People would always get upset that they were draining the lake to sell it to the lower half--lots of division between Northern and Southern CA. My stepdad, who was with California Dept of Forestry for 40+ years shared an interesting article (it's in PDF so I don't know how to share it here) about how Oroville Dam made money selling water and electricity, some of that profit should have been plowed back into maintenance. Instead the price of water to the metropolitan water district and other large water purchasers was kept artificially low by deferring costs (maintenance ).

With the latest rain storms, LA and surrounding areas are also facing flooding issues. Anywhere near any water source on the west coast has had several flood scares this year because of the storms. We've been in drought for so many years and apparently Mother Nature decided to make up for it all in 2 months!

Ah, found the link to the article my stepdad sent:
Eroding California Oroville Dam is almost too good a metaphor for the condition of the state.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-hanson-oroville-20170214-story.html

 

[pandamonium]

Sorry, forgot to reply regarding fish hatchery . .. tried finding it again but couldn't. I think it didn't show because it was in a group vs a page. I've got so many Butte Co/Oroville groups pages right now I can't keep them straight. haha

It was video basically showing just how much water is in the hatchery. Normally the water is very calm, like a pond except for the mini spillways, right?! The water is raging like an ocean or lake with swells. Just very unusual to see that area with water flowing that way.

 

[CARIIS]

This site has statistical info:
current snowpack in Sierra's:
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action




input/output of Lake Oroville:
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO&d=16-Feb-2017+16:01&span=12hours

There are also numerous FB groups (not sure if I'm allowed to post but if I am I'll share upon request) that are providing up to day info. A lot of rumors among them as well so you have to weed thru the junk IF the admins don't but still good info for the most part.

Incredible video from Oroville Fish Hatchery:
https://www.facebook.com/100010308437

Latest press release 2/16/17 at noon. So far they have had at least one a day around noon to provide updates.
https://www.facebook.com/KCRA3/videos/10155039314256514/

Article showing reservoir levels:
http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article133224899.html

And ya know what I learned from your FB post of KCLA TY I am not good with fb.

Just never thought about it. They are really in a tough job. He explained that if the lake gets to 813 the water is not high enough to start through the broken spillway.

So if there inflows surge , it is not until 813 feet they can do anything about it. So basically , its like a catch up (look how good that went once).

So when inflow goes over 100,000 there optionless 100 in 100 out - anything more than that the lake rises.

Peroid. All there is to it.



At its core its a battle between inflow and outflow

So if your anywhere near there just watch this page

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO

When all the stuff get to the resourvoir from the mountains in conjunction with the rainfall when you it getting near 100000 inflow -- get a canoe, scuba gear,a helicopter,jet pack,boogie board,air tanks, life jackets, Or run now before the roads translate to being in a which tend not to float. cariwh

Forget the local news - that page is your key to survival moo

 

[pandamonium]

And ya know what I learned from your FB post of KCLA TY I am not good with fb.

Just never thought about it. They are really in a tough job. He explained that if the lake gets to 813 the water is not high enough to start through the broken spillway.

So if there inflows surge , it is not until 813 feet they can do anything about it. So basically , its like a catch up (look how good that went once).

So when inflow goes over 100,000 there optionless 100 in 100 out - anything than that the lake rises. Peroid. All there is to it.

Yep, it's really a catch 22. There is no win win here from what I've seen/heard. And, there is SO much information floating around, it's hard to decipher what is accurate, what may work, what may not and the fact remains, it's an unprecedented event so nobody really knows with 100% accuracy. Definitely a tough spot to be in.

And, people don't realize the impact all of this water has on the rest of the state, and for that matter, the world. CA is one of the largest economy's in the world--not the nation--the world! I've seen varying estimates but it's between 4th and 6th. It's pretty disheartening to read the negative comments on news articles when people judge the entire state based on the actions of a few (relatively speaking lol) and saying let them drown, let it fall into the water, they wanted to secede, they deserve it, etc. They really have NO idea what that could/would mean for their state as well.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article83780667.html

That water causes damage to the entire state and it's eco environment, farmland (which alone is one of the hugest operations in the nation as well), businesses, etc. It's like watching dominoes crumble

 

[CARIIS]

MODS: Feeling a bit of a dilemma. I do not know if this is main stream media. But I cant help but thinking this is a video from a person with an awesome camera standing 20 feet away from what they are doing with no narrative- what could be more factual than standing 20 feet away and watching !!

If I am off here pls accept my apologies.

[video=youtube;q3UwVxpTGdE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3UwVxpTGdE[/video]

 

[pandamonium]

My sister and I were wondering about all of this heavy equipment up there and on the roads from a safety standpoint. We have seen videos of the roads literally crumbling from the water/erosion. Hats of to all of these workers up there, for sure! It's a very dangerous situation for them to be in and not a lot of options to get out if they get trapped up there.

 

[CARIIS]

Yep, it's really a catch 22. There is no win win here from what I've seen/heard. And, there is SO much information floating around, it's hard to decipher what is accurate, what may work, what may not and the fact remains, it's an unprecedented event so nobody really knows with 100% accuracy. Definitely a tough spot to be in.

And, people don't realize the impact all of this water has on the rest of the state, and for that matter, the world. CA is one of the largest economy's in the world--not the nation--the world! I've seen varying estimates but it's between 4th and 6th. It's pretty disheartening to read the negative comments on news articles when people judge the entire state based on the actions of a few (relatively speaking lol) and saying let them drown, let it fall into the water, they wanted to secede, they deserve it, etc. They really have NO idea what that could/would mean for their state as well.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article83780667.html

That water causes damage to the entire state and it's eco environment, farmland (which alone is one of the hugest operations in the nation as well), businesses, etc. It's like watching dominoes crumble

Dominos is my exact visualization. The implications are enormous and I agree global.

Refineries could be wiped, our power grid is interconnected and like our dams ancient. 18% of our food comes from there.
disease, Cell towers, financial, death, oil/gas leaking all over , rail service, airports impacted

And I am so with you with --that page I have posted- again here it is

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action

Aint that smart. However it stands to reason, does not even matter which dam it is . They are all interconnected. Water goes down ward!!

If I left a hose running in one pool, and it overflowed, and there were pools below that are there to catch water coming down if they are full, what exactly is gonna happen??

Lake Stasha, holds the most water in the state, take a look at her. Check out Don Pedro on link above.

I tend to be more emotional than logical, but please - this is about water/gravity!

I watched the local outlet for the first time since yesterday and was blown away they are still reporting 1-3 inches, from their 25 year old Doppler radars - meanwhile back at the real office (!)

NOAA who is using satellites, this kind of imagery, running their models through super duper computers, as opposed to weather man on a laptop with make- up -

I am going with a super duper computer just mo

If you want to be more concerned go here

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/awipsProducts/RNOWRK10D.php

and just look at the MIN inflows all over the state , at all the levies, tons of them are already falling apart now.

Hope I am so being dramatic!!

 

[pandamonium]

Yes, it's been years since I've had the 'formal' education regarding the dam and how they all connect. I remember touring it as a kid on a field trip but for the life of me can't remember much . .that was almost 40 years ago. lol

It's fascinating just how interconnected they all are. They have to be able to communicate and I know Shasta was less than 6 ft from the rim at one point and holding their water under the Oroville crisis then started their releases again when things were looking better. But they are all juggling how much to release when and of course, it's all going into the valleys now. I haven't had time to research, but I saw some references that some areas in Sacramento had houses under 40 ft of water!

 

[CARIIS]

My sister and I were wondering about all of this heavy equipment up there and on the roads from a safety standpoint. We have seen videos of the roads literally crumbling from the water/erosion. Hats of to all of these workers up there, for sure! It's a very dangerous situation for them to be in and not a lot of options to get out if they get trapped up there.

PS I also think your name sums this up !!