CA - ‘Uncharted territory’ as Lake Oroville rises toward damaged dam

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We have used tree ring data in one of our groundwater models to help predict the recharge component for one of our over-stressed aquifers. These data go back to the 16th century I believe. Cypress and Live Oak and...

Anyways,they are a very good record of wet-dry cycles. I will look for that today and share it later. I'm sure the same has been done with the Redwoods and what are those... Joshua trees? I will have to look.

Sent from my LG-H740 using Tapatalk



Is that accurate that it often takes days and days for snowmelt to make into all the reservoirs ??

CBS 2 meteorologist Ed Curran says.Three days of temperatures at 50 degrees can melt 2 to 4 inches of snow. If temps fall below freezing at night, the process will be slower.

I guess I wondering role of distance and past history.
 
[FONT=&quot] mountain’s ideal snowpack is quite literally a snow[/FONT]pack[FONT=&quot], because the denser the pack, the longer the snow will take to break down, and the longer the slopes will remain covered. Similarly, rain that then turns snow to ice will make the mess stick around longer, as it will condense the snow already on the ground and strengthen the bonds. Rain with considerably warm temperatures, needless to say, will make the mess disappear.

[/FONT]
https://www.inverse.com/article/10570-how-long-will-it-take-for-this-snow-to-melt

[video=youtube;RmRDE1Dqzok]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmRDE1Dqzok[/video]
 
around 32:00 real interesting

[video=youtube;XPswfQ4M5O0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPswfQ4M5O0[/video]
 
Thats how my little brain works! I have to get some baby understanding of what the heck I am trying to figure out!

But then I need some basic "terms" to figure out how to know what I am googling to get an answer to what I am curious about.

In these days (!) I am trying to figure out roughly what all the snow on all the mountains is gonna really mean as it relates to swollen rivers all over the place out there.

so then I was able to find out some stuff:

[FONT=proxima_nova]In early February, [/FONT]snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains[FONT=proxima_nova] — the combined layers of snow and ice on the ground at any one time — was at its highest since 1995 for this point in the year. When it melts, the snowpack provides one-third of the California’s freshwater supply.

(oppss PS % of calif under drought on this day ast year 95 today 17)

back on track

[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova]an average of 42 inches of water equivalent, compared to 21 inches one year ago (left map)

NOte to self/others - on the maps lighter colored areas mean more snow!!

Which as a Floridian makes totally no sense to me. Logic in my mind would bolder colors mean "MORE" of anything !

[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova]amount of water contained within the snow is called the snow-water equivalent. In just six weeks, California’s snow-water equivalent totals have gone from below average to well above average — 186 percent of the February 21 average, in fact.[/FONT][FONT=proxima_nova]

[/FONT]



Stop babbling ! Bottom line what is coming?

[FONT=proxima_nova]This spring, and possibly before the end of winter, we should see some warming up, which could cause snow to melt faster and flood some areas. Snow in the high Sierras tends to produce a gradual runoff that should keep rivers and reservoirs at healthy levels through the dry season, though the sheer volume of expected runoff could cause flooding in the southern half of California’s Central Valley.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova]The latest spring runoff projections for the major rivers flowing from the Sierra Nevadas into the Sacramento Valley are 130 percent of average and 190 percent of average for those flowing into the San Joaquin Valley.

Californians are getting a break from the wet weather, but it won’t last long: More storms are expected to impact Northern California February 26 and 27. And, nearly two months of California’s wet season remain.

http://www.noaa.gov/stories/snowpack-snowmelt-water[/FONT]

IMAGE-snow%20water%20comparison%20map-NOAA_NWS-725x425-Landscape.png
 
Is that accurate that it often takes days and days for snowmelt to make into all the reservoirs ??

CBS 2 meteorologist Ed Curran says.Three days of temperatures at 50 degrees can melt 2 to 4 inches of snow. If temps fall below freezing at night, the process will be slower.

I guess I wondering role of distance and past history.

I know zero about snowmelt. Cant help you with that.

I was talking about tree rings, historic wet-dry cycles, and groundwater recharge, jumping off of SophieRose's post about the historic flood event from the 1860s. Here is a link to an interesting presentation re: tree ring studies in Texas and why they are important clues to help our understanding of drought cycles.

http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/ciess/files/Water_Forum_01_Votteler.pdf

I segued to groundwater... we use groundwater models to predict how much water we will have, and so I mentioned tree rings because we have recently used them to help estimate future recharge, which is the amount of water that infiltrates back into an aquifer, and a critical part of the equation. Hope that makes sense.

groundwater101.JPG
http://www.scopenvironment.org/downloadpubs/scope35/chapter11.html
 
around 32:00 real interesting

[video=youtube;XPswfQ4M5O0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPswfQ4M5O0[/video]

Never knew a snowpack was considered ripe. Ripe for melting point, I suppose.

Had to giggle a little @ 34:28 when he uses a graph of a river in Japan yet manages to use their flow chart to explain river stages. He handled it well.

I am very grateful the dam has held. Hopefully the next two days of rain won't present any problems.
 
Every 200 years California suffers a storm of biblical proportions — this year’s rains are just a precursor
The last freak rainstorm turned the Central Valley into a lake, and we’re due for another one
http://www.theverge.com/2017/2/21/1...c-river-flood-storm-evacuations-rain-arkstorm

The most recent was a series of storms that lasted for a near-biblical 43 days between 1861 and 1862, creating a vast lake where California’s Central Valley had been. Floodwaters drowned thousands of people, hundreds of thousands of cattle, and forced the state’s government to move from Sacramento to San Francisco.

More than 150 years have passed since California’s last, great flood — and a team of researchers with the US Geological Survey have predicted what kind of damage a similar flood would cause today. Their simulation, called the ARkStorm, anticipates that a stretch of the Central Valley 300 miles long by 20 miles wide would be underwater.

:eek: That would be absolutely horrific!
 
We have used tree ring data in one of our groundwater models to help predict the recharge component for one of our over-stressed aquifers. These data go back to the 16th century I believe. Cypress and Live Oak and...

Anyways,they are a very good record of wet-dry cycles. I will look for that today and share it later. I'm sure the same has been done with the Redwoods and what are those... Joshua trees? I will have to look.

Sent from my LG-H740 using Tapatalk

Thank you for your information! FYI, Joshua trees don't grow in the central valley and are a member of the lily family. They don't have growth rings. I love my Joshua trees!!

Judging the age of a Joshua tree is challenging: these “trees” do not have growth rings like you would find in an oak or pine. You can make a rough estimate based on height, as Joshua trees grow at rates of one-half inch to three inches per year. Some researchers think an average lifespan for a Joshua tree is about 150 years, but some of our largest trees may be much older than that.

https://www.nps.gov/jotr/learn/nature/jtrees.htm
 
Thank you for your information! FYI, Joshua trees don't grow in the central valley and are a member of the lily family. They don't have growth rings. I love my Joshua trees!!



https://www.nps.gov/jotr/learn/nature/jtrees.htm

I think watergirl is talking about the bristlecone pine trees, which are located in the White Mountains on the border of California and Nevada. I visited the forest many years ago, real hot in the summer. A lot to see off of Highway 395.
 
:eek: That would be absolutely horrific!


I think folks are feeling out of the woods where my sense from what I have learned its basically best to look at this as a subway system - so interconnected.

If we look at the first onslot in Jan in took several weeks for the implications to be experienced throughout the subway system

Move forward to Ist Feb onslaught. It took several weeks for the impact of all that to mess up the entire subway line.

Then I think its called a flood control agency. Flood Control!

Its just like a place crash. Its never one event .

They know what they are doing - but when a part of the system breaks down (Spillway) then stuff starts.

If we look at what happened, there were days and days that wwent by and then it was another spillway being opened.

More days pass - then another is opened. Repeat x2. But each time they kept having to open more , in a swamped system, there is a place where options get less and less.

Think about it - for decades they have been able to announce flood warnings for years - ahead of time.

They have all the models- how many of us have know about inflow outflow etc all those charts for subway station in the system. Its all calculated - they know.

A lot of it is going to depend exactly on how the snowmelt happens and at what speed.

I think this is far from over Its kinda like aa forest fire - depends on a whole bunch of things as it relates to final outcomes. which only time can tell.

For a subway line to be having troubles, while being stressed out with more passengers than ever, and the Olympics coming to town (!) requiring the system to handle more passengers (snowmelt) - somewhat daunting.

This whole subway line has been stressed for months. Its old. The whole dam system is gonna have to be handling more passssengers solely cause the ground (which often sucks some of the passengers away!) is over it. and saturated

So now the entire system has another whole problem. Instead of being absorbed by masses of land its just gonna become a problem for the entire subway line. . Just the pics recently posted - when that stuff starts to melt -----------

It takes weeks to see how the whole subway line stacks up. I think last weeks weather , as far as the subway line goes - the world won't know for another week (but they do - that is why they still have a multitude of spillways still spewing) .

They are trying to get all the stations along the route , hopefully , capable , of handling the crowds (snowmelt) when the Olympics come to town!

I think the resistance to open them all over the state is cause they knew what was gonna happen and it did.

There is no reason to believe that they do not have that same awareness for the next month.

But really, if we sadly think about it, what can they do - clear out 874,000 people. To where?
jmo

[FONT=&quot]Some reservoirs are already at emergency heights and the massive snow pack continues to build. This could have dangerous repercussions for flooding in the spring.

[/FONT]
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/infographic-744118-california-reservoirs.html
 

This helped me , nice and concrete!!

[h=1]Snowpack + snowmelt = water[/h]

[FONT=proxima_nova]Snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains at its heaviest in more than two decades

[/FONT]
So I am not nuts (or am I!) but when I read :
My only conclusion can be that more water, than experienced in decades has to be on the way .
 
Thank you for your information! FYI, Joshua trees don't grow in the central valley and are a member of the lily family. They don't have growth rings. I love my Joshua trees!!



https://www.nps.gov/jotr/learn/nature/jtrees.htm
OT
Those are gorgeous. How unique. Thanks for this information. Ohhhh they are agave /yucca. I keep planting yucca and agave varieties in my yard because they are very hardy and don't need to be watered. Plus they are beautiful.

http://www.desertusa.com/flora/the-joshua-tree.html
 
Northern California Snowmelt Crisis as Temps Rise into 70s

10 days of up to 75 degree weather will spark an early spring snowmelt.


90 percent of California
as experiencing an “Extreme Water Year,”


Because hundreds of smaller dams in Northern California have been allowed to fill, water runoff for the Sacramento Valley from Sierra Nevada-fed rivers is running at 130 percent of average for this time of year; versus rivers flowing into the San Joaquin Valley, which are running at 190 percent of average runoff.
But as temperatures rise to 65 degrees in mid-mountain elevations at the 6–8,000 foot

storms, 13-degree-above-average temperatures are about to trigger an early spring snowmelt, according to Paul Preston of Agenda 21 Radio News,


The Feather River below Oroville Dam that is holding back up to 3.5 million acre feet of water is currently running at 196 percent

Sacramento River, 156 percent of average.


water levels rose to within 11 feet of Shasta Dam’s 602-foot-high emergency spillway, despite running Shasta’s lower water release gates at full-blast since January 16. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation engineers were forced to open the upper flood gates for 15 minutes on February 23 for the first time in two decades.



t to prevent Oroville Dam from massively pouring over its emergency spillway and flooding over 1 million people in the Sacramento Valley, the 9 smaller supporting dams on the Feather River were allowed to fill up. ....engineers allowed the 5 smaller dams that support Shasta Dam to fill up as well.
aware that Shasta Dam is not tall enough to handle the type of 100-year flood that California may currently be facing,


[FONT=&amp]As our snowmelt travels the 300-mile path from Yosemite’s Mount Dana to the sea, it meanders through the Tuolumne River watershed, past hydropower plants and nurseries, wildlife refuges and chemical plants, vineyards and the San Francisco Bay Area, where it provides water for millions of people.

[/FONT]
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY. The National Weather Service in Sacramento has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow, which is in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday. * TIMING. Snow will begin Sunday afternoon and taper off to lighter snow by Monday morning. * MAIN IMPACT. Weekend travelers could experience travel delays, chain controls, and slick roadways. * SNOW AMOUNTS. Between 4 and 6 inches of snow expected for mountain passes, including Interstate 80 and Highway 50.

[FONT=&amp]

[/FONT]
https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/california-atmospheric-river-sierra-snow-flood-forecast-jan2017


http://www.myforecast.com/bin/alert...,261130CAZ06937,261729CAZ10237,261729CAZ10737

https://twitter.com/CaltransDist3[FONT=&amp]



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