I've been asking myself why am I so certain of what I believe I'm seeing in this video. Then it dawned on me; it's my job!
I edited out the rest of your post following this sentence to save space, but I wanted to say that of all the theories I've read, I find this to be one of the least likely and most arbitrary. I understand that you've watched hotel security cameras for years, but what you're postulating is an incredibly detailed and specific story happening completely off-camera. I can understand if you might just be thinking through possibilities, but I can't see becoming so utterly certain of it when there are far more likely possibilities.
The way I analyze any criminal case is to start with the most obvious explanations, and if I can eliminate them then I move on to less obvious ones. That's the only logical way to do it. And of course we don't have the info to be completely eliminating very many possibilities because we're missing most of the puzzle. As long as the most obvious (and likely) possibilities have not been disproved, I'm sticking with those as my primary theories. To do otherwise is to get lost in fantasy land (which I suppose is harmless if you realize you're doing it) or egotism.
For me, the most likely current theories are:
-EL killed herself intentionally or unintentionally, either motivated by drug influence, severe mental illness, a more common reason such as depression, or out of sheer bad judgement.
-EL was murdered by one or more people who are quite familiar with the hotel, and was placed in the water tank either because it was the best hiding place, or for some other motivation.
-There was some kind of accident involving EL and at least one other person while they were on the roof that resulted in EL falling or climbing into the tank. The other person(s) decided to flee and not call the police.
Personally, I am more strongly drawn to the second theory, based on a number of facts that indicate that it's unlikely she did this on her own. I suspect that she was murdered without pre-planning on the part of the murderer (ie. an impulsive sexual killing or something like that). The murder would have been familiar with the roof, as the water tank would have come to their mind as a very logical solution to the difficult problem of getting rid of the body without being detected. Hiding it anywhere in the building for long would have resulted in a strong odor in a matter of a few days. Removing the body from the building would have required either dismemberment or a very sketchy luggage/bag of some kind, and there would still be a problem of transportation. Which is why I suspect the murder doesn't own a car. So where else could the body possibly be hidden without smelling up the hallways? Under water inside those tanks on the roof... those tanks the killer was already familiar with. And the other upside is that any evidence on her body would be washed away by current in the tank and into the building's plumbing and ultimately the sewer. Likewise, and evidence left behind on the roof would likely be washed away by weather before the body was discovered. At worst, the tank idea would buy the killer(s) time and help remove evidence (and confuse people upon the eventually discovery); at worst, the body would be discovered within days by a maintenance person or by some indication in the water system that someone noticed. Either way, the body was out of the hands of the killer(s), and no sketchy body removal was required through the building. As for the many people who have questioned why killer wouldn't have thrown the body off of the building, it seems to me that this would have drawn far more immediate attention than the water tank, and assuming the perpetrator(s) managed to not fall under immediate suspicion, it would likely have been quickly proven that EL died before falling (based on time of death, if not other signs).
Anyway, as for the motive, I suspect it's one of the few obvious reasons that young, vulnerable women alone in a big city find themselves dead. I don't see any reason to start from the perspective that she was killed by a delusional schizophrenic who saw her as a part of his strange, paranoid fantasy and decided he wasn't safe until she was placed into a water tank on a building's roof. That kind of scenario is way out in the stratosphere of extremely unlikely and rare motives--it's precisely the kind of thing someone thinks of after they've watched that elevator video too many times and their mind is off in fantasy land... which I can understand, because I was tempted to go that way myself.
But in reality, I think that video would probably be less freaky and mysterious if only we could hear the audio. I really think one of two scenarios is happening, neither of which involves her being stalked by the killer. I think she was either not in her normal mindset (drugs, mental illness, etc), OR she was messing around with someone who was either in the other elevator going up and down the floors or running up and down the stairs. It appears she was messing with someone to me. That body language expert may not have gotten some things right, but I think he nailed the general idea that she was not in fear, not
real fear. There is also the possibility that she was both intoxicated on drugs AND playing an elevator/stairs game with someone. Really the only part that distinctly makes me think she was not in her right mental state is the trippy, wavy hand gesturing she does toward the end, but even that could be explained as a girl intentionally acting bizarre or crazy within the context of a playful moment with someone.
Regardless, that video may or may not represent an interaction with a killer. She could have befriended someone in the building that she was playing around with, particularly given her nature (and possible intoxication). They could have been a younger guest, even a female. All we know is that she went missing soon after that. I could easily imagine a scenario in which she met some European traveler, took some drugs (maybe ecstasy or lsd), and ended up drawing too much attention to herself and her vulnerable state in a building that has a number of people who could potentially find that kind of situation too difficult not to take advantage of.
One last thing. Further back in this thread or one of the previous ones, people were wondering if pedophiles who have sexually assaulted children would even be interested in a girl EL's age. The answer is yes, depending on the individual pedophile. Many pedophiles have also raped adult women. In fact, a pedophile killed a prostitute in another famously seedy and murder-laced historical NYC hotel, the Hotel Carter:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/cri...ody-found-times-square-hotel-article-1.236968
A lot of pedophiles are into power over weak victims, be they kids or adults. And apparently the Cecil Hotel has several sexual predators (child and otherwise) roaming the halls.