CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #2

[SophieRose]

I concur with @RickshawFan 's scenario above. I believe LE went into this case understanding heat stroke about as much as we did. I feel I have to take what LE says with a grain of salt-- given their past dramatizing of this family's death as Daily Mail material-- until the final tests are in. And this goes for their report of which route the family took.

FWIW, the newest report says Philip Kreycik died within five hours. Yes he had no water, and yes, he exercised aggressively for 45 minutes and jogged for an hour, but that leaves 3 more hours of slow walking and dying. In his case, too, heat stroke was rarely mentioned because his experience as a trail runner prejudiced so many to assume he knew what he was doing.

The Sheriff may have thought they went down Hite Cove because their car was parked next to it.

 

[RickshawFan]

I think maybe we're underestimating the number of mines in the area: https://thediggings.com/mining-districts/ca682

There appear to be 50 active sites in the Hite Cove area in Mariposa. I guess this means claims—I mean, whaddo I know about mining—but this might have appealed to Gerrish.

 

[rahod1]

The Sheriff may have thought they went down Hite Cove because their car was parked next to it.

Good point. I found a highlight of Savage Lundy on the map I posted prior.
Savage\Lundy Trail

 

[RickshawFan]

I think maybe we're underestimating the number of mines in the area: https://thediggings.com/mining-districts/ca682

The Sheriff may have thought they went down Hite Cove because their car was parked next to it.

But I'm thinking that's also where you park your car if you want to go down into the gulch.

 

[SophieRose]

Good point. I found a highlight of Savage Lundy on the map I posted prior.
Savage\Lundy Trail

I found that map and several others a few days ago. On one of them I mapped the car about .3 miles from the SL trailhead, but still doesn't come to 8.5. Maybe they think they went to Nutmeg Gulch waterhole. Or maybe the distance in the report is incorrrect.

 

[Deleted member 292879]

I’m inclined to believe the Chronicle about the loop as IMO they’ve been doing excellent and thorough coverage of this case. As a mom, I can see how if they’d done a couple of 5ish-mile hikes earlier in the summer with baby (pure speculation) they would feel confident they could try 8.5 (EDIT: or 7mi or whatever it was!) Perhaps the baby would nap in the carrier for some of that time. Or they just went the wrong way, meaning to do Savage-Lundy first. The other thing that leads me to believe the Chron map is right is that SAR seemed to have gone clockwise before finding them in the middle of Savage-Lundy. At least, finding them at 11am and some other media descriptions of the search suggested to me they went clockwise around the loop. All MOO, and correct me if that last bit sounds wrong.

Oh and welcome @RedHaus!

I had another random thought today. So random, but since this case broke I’ve kept thinking of a segment in the podcast Locations Unknown where the hosts talk about hiking in jeans: Don’t do it, was the gist. They discuss a disappearance where a woman was attempting a huge hike to Mt. Katahdin in jeans. She was never found. Their point being that her attire and other details suggested ill-preparedness. I have noticed quite a few pictures of the couple in pretty casual attire while hiking, and with utmost respect to them, I am circling back to the notion that up until 2019, they lived in SF, something a few of you have pointed out before as a factor. Sure, they’d been to far-flung and hot places, but I wonder if their backgrounds in the cities and a sort of cavalier, “Hey, this is our backyard” attitude about Mariposa just did not serve them well on the day they perished. They were prepared, but not that prepared. They were feeling adventurous—too adventurous for conditions that in five or ten years they may have become all too wary of.

 

[rahod1]

I found that map and several others a few days ago. On one of them I mapped the car about .3 miles from the SL trailhead, but still doesn't come to 8.5. Maybe they think they went to Nutmeg Gulch waterhole. Or maybe the distance in the report is incorrrect.

5

Unless those distances of each leg are incorrect, it's definitely close to 7Mi total for the loop. It's 2.8Mi for the trail they were found on.

 

[Deleted member 292879]

I think maybe we're underestimating the number of mines in the area: https://thediggings.com/mining-districts/ca682
But I'm thinking that's also where you park your car if you want to go down into the gulch.

Wow…great find @RickshawFan

 

[woods]

If this case proves to be a heat stroke, this wouldn’t be the first family that died of a heat stroke:

Death Valley Germans - Wikipedia

 

[Figuring]

My position on where the family was and where they'd been.... IMO the assumption that they did a loop trip is backing good WS-ers into a box. If we give that up, there are many more possible scenarios. We also don't have a definitive statement from LE: with have an imagined map from the journalist.
So, you've got mom and dad, baby and dog. They park the car and get out. It's 85-90 degrees. They don't have a big plan for the day, but just want to stretch their legs and get out of the house. With COVID and all, they've been getting cabin fever. They've brought enough water to do just the little outing they have in mind, and maybe a little extra. Maybe there's rumors of a mine not far in or they have some other end point planned, maybe not.
So, they head down the dirt road to the gulch. Leisurely.... They're feeling great still when they reach the switchbacks. They go down a bit.
Then they realize the heat is really quite overwhelming, they anticipated there would be trees, and the baby is fussing. They know they didn't bring much water, and reckon they'd need more to continue. So, they turn around and head back to the car. Soon after (or 15 minutes or 30 minutes after, it really doesn't matter), the heat overcomes them.

A plan to hike the whole loop here is outlandish. It doesn't match with the couple's experience level, which was very solid and which would have given them many cautionary vibes. It doesn't match their parental responsibility, and we haven't heard from anyone that they were anything but super caring parents? I really can't see them doing the loop, let alone pushing through it to the end: it just doesn't fit. IMO the only way to signal that that's what they did is to examine their "carry in/carry out", so we'd know what scale of a trip they planned and what they'd used. If there's not much, IMO there's no way they planned to go far.

Thank you SO much for taking the time to write this—it really makes the most sense of all scenarios!! It also seems possible that the statement attributed police (that they family had hiked most of 8.5 miles) might have been premature or misreported.

 

[Figuring]

Found this trail map. All three legs of the loop are shown with respective distances. I get a total of 6.7Mi. 2.1 Hites Cove 1.8 South Fork Merced 2.8 Lundy Savage.
Lundy Savage FAIRLY STEEP with around 1700FT (+/-) elevation change.

Map

This is soooo helpful, thank you!!

 

[SophieRose]

Unless those distances of each leg are incorrect, it's definitely close to 7Mi total for the loop. It's 2.8Mi for the trail they were found on.

Unless they rounded up all the legs including Hite Cove, and then .5 back to the car, that would make 8.5 miles.

 

[woods]

I wonder where their bladder lined backpack was located?

 

[rahod1]

My position on where the family was and where they'd been.... IMO the assumption that they did a loop trip is backing good WS-ers into a box. If we give that up, there are many more possible scenarios. We also don't have a definitive statement from LE: with have an imagined map from the journalist.
So, you've got mom and dad, baby and dog. They park the car and get out. It's 85-90 degrees. They don't have a big plan for the day, but just want to stretch their legs and get out of the house. With COVID and all, they've been getting cabin fever. They've brought enough water to do just the little outing they have in mind, and maybe a little extra. Maybe there's rumors of a mine not far in or they have some other end point planned, maybe not.
So, they head down the dirt road to the gulch. Leisurely.... They're feeling great still when they reach the switchbacks. They go down a bit.
Then they realize the heat is really quite overwhelming, they anticipated there would be trees, and the baby is fussing. They know they didn't bring much water, and reckon they'd need more to continue. So, they turn around and head back to the car. Soon after (or 15 minutes or 30 minutes after, it really doesn't matter), the heat overcomes them.

A plan to hike the whole loop here is outlandish. It doesn't match with the couple's experience level, which was very solid and which would have given them many cautionary vibes. It doesn't match their parental responsibility, and we haven't heard from anyone that they were anything but super caring parents? I really can't see them doing the loop, let alone pushing through it to the end: it just doesn't fit. IMO the only way to signal that that's what they did is to examine their "carry in/carry out", so we'd know what scale of a trip they planned and what they'd used. If there's not much, IMO there's no way they planned to go far.

Two adults and a DOG *should* provide fairly distinct prints. Your scenario would show a down hill portion (or all the way to river) and back, with dual tracks (both directions) up to the point they were found and single tracks (only heading down) from the starting point to where they were found. I have also suggested that it *should* be very possible to see similar prints on the rest of the loop if they attempted the full loop.

 

[Tellyties]

I took the statements differently. Apologies if I’m reiterating what I said upthread.

LE responded to the call. They searched with flashlights on the dirt road leading to the gulch. No success. Plus, flashlights are barely useful in any search of the pitch black backcountry (recall you can lose your tent in no time if you “find a bush” at night, even though you’re wearing a headlamp). And, trail searching is not so much LE’s schtick. It has to be super organized to be effective.
And then, the little search group LE mustered encounters technical trail with switchbacks. No way are they stepping on that trail in the dark of night. For starters, the search just got much more difficult. But they would also be risking injury to officers.
So, they call for SAR to step in and summon a helicopter, both for the morning when you can actually see. SAR musters (these are generally volunteers, they may come from a fair distance, and a safe plan has to be organised) and runs their standard protocol.
LE gets back to crime, which is more their skill set.

In that heat, if the family was on that trail, it was always going to be a recovery mission by the time the family was reported missing. It was not going to be a rescue. Decisions are made accordingly.

It does seem quite odd to me that the helicopter didn’t see the family in the trail first thing in the morning.

This entirely changed my perspective on why LE didn’t put forth a more valiant search in the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Thank you for this insight.

 

[Fretgyrl]

I think this makes a lot of sense. If Philip Kreycik knew to get under a tree even in the deepest delirium of his slow gait and zigzag walking, I believe John Gerrish (sitting up) stopped in a bit of shade. I hope LE considers this idea of timing their demise.

which direction were they headed, towards car? also the dog and baby would perhaps be the first to perish? so very tragic

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

I disagree, I think a 3L would be fine for one person to do the loop. IMO.

8.5 miles with 2000 feet change in elevation out with temps of 109 in direct sun? MOO would be wise to bring more.
How Much Water Do You Need on a Hike? - Nomad Hiker
What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke | Outside Online "What you don’t know is how remarkably fast the human body can expel water to cool itself—one and a half liters or more per hour. (Highly efficient, heat-acclimated marathoners can lose close to four liters per hour while they run.) The human gut, however, can absorb only a little over one liter of water per hour. That means that during maximum rates of water loss, it’s possible to drink steadily and still become dehydrated."

Water would not have made a difference in the outcome unless it was ice water they were submerged in but even 3L for an adult in those extreme heat and strenuous conditions may well not have been enough. MOO. On AllTrails even hikers in the spring commented about the heat in the canyon and the need for a lot of water.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

My position on where the family was and where they'd been.... IMO the assumption that they did a loop trip is backing good WS-ers into a box. If we give that up, there are many more possible scenarios. We also don't have a definitive statement from LE: with have an imagined map from the journalist.
So, you've got mom and dad, baby and dog. They park the car and get out. It's 85-90 degrees. They don't have a big plan for the day, but just want to stretch their legs and get out of the house. With COVID and all, they've been getting cabin fever. They've brought enough water to do just the little outing they have in mind, and maybe a little extra. Maybe there's rumors of a mine not far in or they have some other end point planned, maybe not.
So, they head down the dirt road to the gulch. Leisurely.... They're feeling great still when they reach the switchbacks. They go down a bit.
Then they realize the heat is really quite overwhelming, they anticipated there would be trees, and the baby is fussing. They know they didn't bring much water, and reckon they'd need more to continue. So, they turn around and head back to the car. Soon after (or 15 minutes or 30 minutes after, it really doesn't matter), the heat overcomes them.

A plan to hike the whole loop here is outlandish. It doesn't match with the couple's experience level, which was very solid and which would have given them many cautionary vibes. It doesn't match their parental responsibility, and we haven't heard from anyone that they were anything but super caring parents? I really can't see them doing the loop, let alone pushing through it to the end: it just doesn't fit. IMO the only way to signal that that's what they did is to examine their "carry in/carry out", so we'd know what scale of a trip they planned and what they'd used. If there's not much, IMO there's no way they planned to go far.

I assume this will become more clear as the phone is analyzed?

 

[swedepete]

Great find. A map like this can save your life, and it's the most helpful so far in this case IMO.

This excellent map clearly shows that the family most likely would have parked their pick-up truck a bit to the south of where it was found if they had indeed been intending to do the entire loop....

 

[TootsieFootsie]

A case here in Australia.

German tourists walked up to 17km before dying from heat stress