CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

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MODNOTE

Websleuths is victim-friendly. As such, we're suspending discussion on the intentional ingestion of recreational drugs as a contributing factor in this tragic incident unless and until there is any evidence revealed in toxicology reports, LE statements and/or approved mainstream media reports that would indicate otherwise.

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According to Steven Jeffe, their close family friend - from the Washington Post:
When they lived in San Francisco, the couple enjoyed DJing and going to clubs, Jeffe said. But since they moved to Mariposa — they became “avid outdoor people.”

They moved from SF just over a year ago, and "avid" outdoor people, does not equate with "highly experienced" outdoor people.
I just think a lovely, intelligent couple overestimated their capabilities, and underestimated Mother Nature. Carrying the baby had to be the physical
last straw as they started to fail. If the dog had to be carried too, that would have been the end of any chance of them making it to the car.
 
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Not peculiar at all IMO.

The Regional Office deals with all the National Forests in California, and they recently made a decision to close specific National Forests due to fire concerns, and then a week or so later they expanded that order to apply to all NFs in the state.

That has nothing to do with site-specific orders that individual NFs might issue about a specific location with a specific concern, such as where there has been, for example, storm damage or erosion problems on a specific road, or outbreak of noxious weeds or certain diseases affecting trees or wildlife, or even the mysterious deaths of multiple people due to unknown reasons which might possibly involve something in the environment. MOO

Thanks for the insight. I prolly take all this too literally but the only “known hazard” the SNF has identified, acted upon and repeatedly references is the cyanotoxins.
Yet the order attributes the closure to “unknown hazards” (excluding weapons and chemicals) while expanding the worrisome algal bloom field and reminding the public that was ‘the area where a family was discovered…’.

“Unknown hazards” may be a generic term but it sounds chilling. I prefer my hazards to be known.
Perhaps we have already started down a rabbit hole, to paraphrase the Defense Chief 20 years ago at the start of the US war on terror: ‘There are known knowns and there are known unknowns, there are things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.’
The blue-green stuff is either a known known or a known unknown because it can’t possibly be an unknown unknown. Right?
 
<modsnip>

According to Steven Jeffe, their close family friend - from the Washington Post:
When they lived in San Francisco, the couple enjoyed DJing and going to clubs, Jeffe said. But since they moved to Mariposa — they became “avid outdoor people.”

They moved from SF just over a year ago, and "avid" outdoor people, does not equate with "highly experienced" outdoor people.
I just think a lovely, intelligent couple overestimated their capabilities, and underestimated Mother Nature. Carrying the baby had to be the physical
last straw as they started to fail. If the dog had to be carried too, that would have been the end of any chance of them making it to the car.

Agree, esp with how steep the climb was back up to the truck. Also, when Jon had previously been on the trail or part of it, it was before the 2018 fires, I believe. Had the last leg been downhill it may have saved them. MOO.
 
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Thanks for the insight. I prolly take all this too literally but the only “known hazard” the SNF has identified, acted upon and repeatedly references is the cyanotoxins.
Yet the order attributes the closure to “unknown hazards” while expanding the worrisome algal bloom field and reminding the public that was ‘the area where a family was discovered…’.

“Unknown hazards” may be a generic term but it sounds chilling. I prefer my hazards to be known.
Perhaps we have already started down a rabbit hole, to paraphrase the Defense Chief 20 years ago at the start of the US war on terror: ‘There are known knowns and there are known unknowns, there are things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.’
The blue-green stuff is either a known known or a known unknown because it can’t possibly be an unknown unknown. Right?

Agree entirely!

The algae situation as it was understood a month ago, did not trigger a closure of that trail but rather a warning sign so visitors could be aware and make informed choices.

At this point I'm sure the administrators of the forest don't know much if anything more than we do, including whether the algae played any role in their deaths.

I feel confident the local trail closure is more about the uncertainty than anything else. Once they know what caused it (hopefully it will eventually become clear) then they can decide to take various actions such as cleanup if it turns out to be a spill of something toxic, expanded warnings if it is related to the algae, or better overall public awareness if it turns out to be heat alone. I seriously doubt the closure will become a longterm thing although it might become a regular closure during the extreme types of conditions that existed that week. Kind of like how certain areas are closed to public access during times of high avalanche likelihood. All MOO
 
Make more posts about dogs! This one is really enlightening IMO.

On/off lurker for several WS case follows, so had to finally make an account to comment on this one, but felt I could shed some more light on this topic as an ER vet who has treated many cases of canine heatstroke, albeit some to no avail.
I work in the PNW, where summers are fairly mild but the recreation opportunities abound. We had an unprecedented heatwave at the beginning of June where temperatures reached the low 100s & the night time low was only ~80. We treated (& lost) so many patients to heatstroke in those few days, many from just attempting simple walks around their neighborhood. Most people were not used to the heat & as very few have central AC the overheating process they kicked into gear on their walks, had a hard time getting reversed once they got home.

Dogs don’t sweat, they can only release their heat through panting & evaporative (sweating) through their paw pads. This makes them much more susceptible to overheating than people as the temperature of the ground will directly impact their ability to cool (or will contribute to drive their temperature higher).

I have dogs Oski’s size & coat length, & even here in a more moderate climate, I am very careful about not taking them on exposed hikes with little shade if it gets above 80. In the summer I preferentially hike along or to water, pack water for them, & take plenty of shade breaks along the way. As others have said, in the type of heat they were attempting a venture in, you could not pack enough water to hike comfortably & safely for just a solitary person & dog… let alone 2 adults & an infant. The amount you’d need to pack & number of breaks you’d need to take in the beating sun would make it very unenjoyable.
I wouldn’t attempt a hike at all with a dog when it’s in the 90s unless it was less than a mile & fairly flat & shaded. MOO from seeing the worst of the worst.

On the note of Cyanobacteria/blue-green algae. Not all blue-green algae contains the harmful cyanobacteria & not all cyanobacteria contains the neurotoxin which contains the very fast death factor (VFDF). All of which, needs to be consumed to affect the individual, which is why you’ll find lots of case studies about dogs but few about people (they just can’t help themselves when they swim). They would not be affected by VFDF from contact, they would have had to take at least a good healthy swig of it.
The VFDF hits very rapidly with staggering, seizures, death. Usually within 45 min from ingestion. Most dogs that get this are DOA once they arrive. I have known 1 or 2 dogs that were able to get into a vet clinic very quickly between seizures & death & be induced into a medical coma on a ventilator for days & survive it. These are VERY rare cases (one belonged to a vet & so was intubated/bagged during transport off the trail, which made survival possible).
The harmful Cyanobacteria lacking VFDF (which I think is more common) usually takes several hours prior to onset of clinical signs & is usually more gastrointestinal in onset.

My last thought is that I don’t expect any of the autopsies/necropsy to be too conclusive. All 4 of those bodies sat out in sweltering heat for >48hrs, that will lead to a lot of confounding postmortem changes. Had they been taken off the trail the night they died, I think signs of heatstroke would likely be more readily apparent.

As others have theorized, I think this is a tragic case of overestimation of ability & lack of foresight regarding temperatures. I think it is highly likely the dog was the first to succumb & was likely carried, which lead to more exertion & stress in the people & then a domino effect with the heat & being on those exposed switchbacks. Very sad but hope it is a case that others can learn from when setting out for causal adventures with their pets & kids.
 
From the SF Chronicle. Don't know if this was mentioned before, sorry if it's a repeat. The Philip Kreycik story iust reminds me so much of these folks ~
Loving, family oriented people who went out for their excercise - run - hike - adventure - for the day. Didn't expect to be gone lone. Rapidly overcome by soaring temps. Never came home. Please respect Nature, it will always win.

GPS data is revealing new details about runner Philip Kreycik's death

For more than 30 minutes on July 10, runner Philip Kreycik tore through Pleasanton Ridge Regional Park at a pace only achieved by seasoned athletes, at times dipping well below a 6-minute mile on a day that would hit 106 degrees.

But the Berkeley man began to slow considerably by the time he hit 8 kilometers, or about 5 miles, according to GPS data from Kreycik’s smartwatch. And what had been an intuitive path through well-worn trails had become erratic, with Kreycik zig-zagging in tight clusters around a remote game area before coming to a full stop.

The GPS data provide crucial clues into the conditions surrounding his death, after an initial autopsy found no signs of traumatic injuries. The report, obtained exclusively by The Chronicle, suggests that Kreycik may have experienced an altered mental state toward the end of his run, and that he likely died before search team boots ever hit the ground.

Sgt. Ray Kelly, a spokesman for the Alameda County Sheriff’s Office, said Kreycik’s movements could indicate a sort of delirium from heat exhaustion.

“Some experts in this field looked at the data and explained to us that it’s very possible that he had a heat stroke-related incident,” Kelly said. “This can cause people to hallucinate and act out in irrational ways before they become unconscious.”
 
My own speculation about why they went out for a hike on such a hot day is that they had a new piece of equipment that they wanted to try out, namely, a backpack carrier for the baby. Thinking the new carrier (speculating that it was new based on the IG post) would be cooler for the baby and her father than the papoose type they had used before, they went out in the morning for a test run. Idk if either of them were gear heads, but it’s hard to let new equipment collect dust for those sorts of folks.
I'd agree very much with this concept, especially if it's discovered they only planned on a quicky "hike", like an hour or so. If they planned on the whole loop, I can't imagine they didn't have something else in mind than testing out a new baby pack.

Overall, I'm starting to think this couple had very little experience planning, supplying, or executing a hike. We don't know yet, but maybe even their clothing exacerbated the situation. Or someone got disabling blisters from a poor match of footwear to feet doubled with extreme hit. One of my top questions that would tell us a lot about preparedness and planning: "Were they wearing hats?"
 
I'd agree very much with this concept, especially if it's discovered they only planned on a quicky "hike", like an hour or so. If they planned on the whole loop, I can't imagine they didn't have something else in mind than testing out a new baby pack.

Overall, I'm starting to think this couple had very little experience planning, supplying, or executing a hike. We don't know yet, but maybe even their clothing exacerbated the situation. Or someone got disabling blisters from a poor match of footwear to feet doubled with extreme hit. One of my top questions that would tell us a lot about preparedness and planning: "Were they wearing hats?"
IMO, people learn from experience and it's just very unfortunate that a few don't survive their experience to learn from it.

In this situation, I don't think proper planning was the problem, I think the decision to go on that trail at all (in summer) was the miscalculation.

I personally question whether Alltrails is a good source of info for hiking, I prefer official sources or guidebooks by experienced hikers who know the routes and region really well, but as an app expert, JG probably relied on it more than someone from my generation would.
 
I wonder if the computer analysis will reveal what app they used for weather forecasts, and what it reported. Possibly it didn't reflect how hot it would be on the trail.
 
MODNOTE

Again: Websleuths is victim-friendly and speculation has to be fact-based.

No more lifestyle speculation based on donut orders.


Any discussion of obsessions or compulsions has to be based on stronger evidence than someone ordering a gluten-free (or even a sugar-free) donut. Someone buying a donut from a donut store does not mean they consider themselves morally and/or intellectually superior to others, nor does the type of donut purchased constitute evidence of an eating disorder, grandiose ideation or a sense of entitlement.

As we wait for more validated information, please keep the speculation based on the evidence we have so far. Thank you.

Edited to correct grammar :oops:
 
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They were both described as avid hikers by everyone who personally knew them, and they were both adventuring different places together on a daily basis.

We don’t know who’s idea it was to go on this particular hike, but according to the timeline, LE said it was Jonathan who researched Hites Cove hike on his phone app the day before their Sunday hike.
“Avid hikers” might mean generically that they’d “hiked a whole bunch”. That could cover an awful lot! It’s very possible they’d never gone on actual family hikes in CA (for example), but had only gone on guided trips, and those were in foreign countries. Everything would have been taken care of for them, including supplies, itineraries, duffel bag of stuff..
This is not where I began this case, but I’m starting to think they had almost no experience planning and hiking just by themselves. And this was a very strenuous hike (even in easy conditions), not a little wildflower jaunt with meager ups and downs, which likely would have been a good match for novice hikers, a baby, and a dog.
 
I've seen several posts making reference to Ellen's debilitating health condition and some speculation about how she wasn't able to work anymore, her state of mind because of this, etc. I think this is based on an IG post that she made on May 18, 2018. (Login • Instagram). In this post she writes: "This picture may seem like an ordinary day at work but for me, it's so much more. This past Tuesday was potentially my last time ever working for a technology company or maybe any company. After being diagnosed with a debilitating health condition, I realized I want to take life in a different direction. A direction with more intention, passion, and nourishment. So good bye corporate America and hello funemployment for now."

I don't read this as someone who's devastated about leaving corporate America / employment in tech. It's someone realizing they want to take their life in a more meaningful direction, and actually doing it. I don't think it was "impossible" for her to work for a company. She just didn't want to do it. She was getting her 500 hour yoga teacher training and enrolled in grad school at CIIS.

JMO as someone who would love to stop working in tech and say good-bye to corporate America. :)

ETA: Sorry, I posted this in Thread #2 at like literally the instant it was closed and I don't know how to delete the previous post.
 
“Avid hikers” might mean generically that they’d “hiked a whole bunch”. That could cover an awful lot! It’s very possible they’d never gone on actual family hikes in CA (for example), but had only gone on guided trips, and those were in foreign countries. Everything would have been taken care of for them, including supplies, itineraries, duffel bag of stuff..
This is not where I began this case, but I’m starting to think they had almost no experience planning and hiking just by themselves. And this was a very strenuous hike (even in easy conditions), not a little wildflower jaunt with meager ups and downs, which likely would have been a good match for novice hikers, a baby, and a dog.

According to a family friend by the name of Rosanna Heaslett, she said that they hiked on weekends:
https://kmph.com/news/local/entire-family-reported-missing-in-mariposa
 
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