OK I went back to the post by Neil the witness, and I think we have talked about some of this before, but it has been awhile, so I am kind of starting "fresh" again (we may have new people on the thread who have fresh eyes and opinions, etc). The quotes I am taking from Neil were from the other WS thread linked a few posts back.
Neil said: "The hike both ways is up to a ridge at half way and then down the other side. Going back, I went about 2/3 of the way up to the ridge and then stopped for 2 or 3 minutes in the shade from a large boulder next to the trail. I was there not earlier than 9am and not later than 9.15am.
Paul came round the bend from the ridge and down the trail towards me."
To me, this sounds like Neil was hiking back to his car and Paul was hiking out, not having been to the oasis yet, correct? OR does anyone else read it differently? When Neil said "round the bend from the ridge and down the trail" I'm assuming that means Paul was just hiking up and over the ridge on the way out and then started heading down towards Neil (who was hiking up the ridge to return to the trailhead). If that's the case, then there is still, unfortunately, a lot of areas on the trail where something could have happened to Paul, as he still had to complete the out portion of the trail and then the whole hike back.
And I remember from before that there was time discrepancies. Neil even addresses this in his post, saying (I am paraphrasing) that Paul HAD to have left the hotel earlier than is being reported for him to be on the trail between 9-915 when Neil saw him. Yet every article I have read about this has said he left the hotel room at 9, including the one linked a few posts up, where it said: "It was about 9 a.m. that he – an experienced hiker and outdoorsman – told his wife he wanted to do one more hike before they checked out of their hotel room at 11 a.m." So that meant he just left at 9, which means it would have been impossible that Neil saw him on the trail.
So I guess it comes down to, who was accurate on time as to whether or not it's possible that it was him Neil saw. I know the wife said "around 9," but I don't know that she would have said that if it was truly 30 or more minutes earlier. And perhaps she wasn't looking at a clock, but with having a flight to catch, I can't imagine when he said "Hey I'm gonna go for a hike," that she didn't look at the time. All MOO of course. So I don't know where that leaves us. If the wife is right on the time, Neil couldn't have seen Paul (and Neil sounded very confident it was absolutely between 9 and 915 that he saw this man/Paul on the trail).