Found Deceased CA - Paul Miller, 51, Canadian missing in Joshua Tree Natl Park, San Bernardino Co., 13 Jul 2018 #2

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves

New Posts

Status
Not open for further replies.
Maybe the Park Superintendent (DS) mis-spoke when he said "trail head"....

FWIW, in the still unsolved case of little Laura Bradbury who also disappeared in JTNP, the sheriff's department brought in a hypnotist to try and coax more details from campers who witnessed a man in a van...

Just saying.
 
OK I went back to the post by Neil the witness, and I think we have talked about some of this before, but it has been awhile, so I am kind of starting "fresh" again (we may have new people on the thread who have fresh eyes and opinions, etc). The quotes I am taking from Neil were from the other WS thread linked a few posts back.

Neil said: "The hike both ways is up to a ridge at half way and then down the other side. Going back, I went about 2/3 of the way up to the ridge and then stopped for 2 or 3 minutes in the shade from a large boulder next to the trail. I was there not earlier than 9am and not later than 9.15am.
Paul came round the bend from the ridge and down the trail towards me."

To me, this sounds like Neil was hiking back to his car and Paul was hiking out, not having been to the oasis yet, correct? OR does anyone else read it differently? When Neil said "round the bend from the ridge and down the trail" I'm assuming that means Paul was just hiking up and over the ridge on the way out and then started heading down towards Neil (who was hiking up the ridge to return to the trailhead). If that's the case, then there is still, unfortunately, a lot of areas on the trail where something could have happened to Paul, as he still had to complete the out portion of the trail and then the whole hike back.

And I remember from before that there was time discrepancies. Neil even addresses this in his post, saying (I am paraphrasing) that Paul HAD to have left the hotel earlier than is being reported for him to be on the trail between 9-915 when Neil saw him. Yet every article I have read about this has said he left the hotel room at 9, including the one linked a few posts up, where it said: "It was about 9 a.m. that he – an experienced hiker and outdoorsman – told his wife he wanted to do one more hike before they checked out of their hotel room at 11 a.m." So that meant he just left at 9, which means it would have been impossible that Neil saw him on the trail.

So I guess it comes down to, who was accurate on time as to whether or not it's possible that it was him Neil saw. I know the wife said "around 9," but I don't know that she would have said that if it was truly 30 or more minutes earlier. And perhaps she wasn't looking at a clock, but with having a flight to catch, I can't imagine when he said "Hey I'm gonna go for a hike," that she didn't look at the time. All MOO of course. So I don't know where that leaves us. If the wife is right on the time, Neil couldn't have seen Paul (and Neil sounded very confident it was absolutely between 9 and 915 that he saw this man/Paul on the trail).
 
MntnHiker said:
OK I went back to the post by Neil the witness, and I think we have talked about some of this before, but it has been awhile, so I am kind of starting "fresh" again (we may have new people on the thread who have fresh eyes and opinions, etc). The quotes I am taking from Neil were from the other WS thread linked a few posts back.

Neil said: "The hike both ways is up to a ridge at half way and then down the other side. Going back, I went about 2/3 of the way up to the ridge and then stopped for 2 or 3 minutes in the shade from a large boulder next to the trail. I was there not earlier than 9am and not later than 9.15am.
Paul came round the bend from the ridge and down the trail towards me."

To me, this sounds like Neil was hiking back to his car and Paul was hiking out, not having been to the oasis yet, correct? OR does anyone else read it differently? When Neil said "round the bend from the ridge and down the trail" I'm assuming that means Paul was just hiking up and over the ridge on the way out and then started heading down towards Neil (who was hiking up the ridge to return to the trailhead). If that's the case, then there is still, unfortunately, a lot of areas on the trail where something could have happened to Paul, as he still had to complete the out portion of the trail and then the whole hike back.

And I remember from before that there was time discrepancies. Neil even addresses this in his post, saying (I am paraphrasing) that Paul HAD to have left the hotel earlier than is being reported for him to be on the trail between 9-915 when Neil saw him. Yet every article I have read about this has said he left the hotel room at 9, including the one linked a few posts up, where it said: "It was about 9 a.m. that he – an experienced hiker and outdoorsman – told his wife he wanted to do one more hike before they checked out of their hotel room at 11 a.m." So that meant he just left at 9, which means it would have been impossible that Neil saw him on the trail.

So I guess it comes down to, who was accurate on time as to whether or not it's possible that it was him Neil saw. I know the wife said "around 9," but I don't know that she would have said that if it was truly 30 or more minutes earlier. And perhaps she wasn't looking at a clock, but with having a flight to catch, I can't imagine when he said "Hey I'm gonna go for a hike," that she didn't look at the time. All MOO of course. So I don't know where that leaves us. If the wife is right on the time, Neil couldn't have seen Paul (and Neil sounded very confident it was absolutely between 9 and 915 that he saw this man/Paul on the trail).
Click to expand...
So 1/3 way up the Trail would take around 20 minutes to hike. Plus his travel time which I think someone said would only be a few minutes.
 
Last edited:
MntnHiker said:
OK I went back to the post by Neil the witness, and I think we have talked about some of this before, but it has been awhile, so I am kind of starting "fresh" again (we may have new people on the thread who have fresh eyes and opinions, etc). The quotes I am taking from Neil were from the other WS thread linked a few posts back.

Neil said: "The hike both ways is up to a ridge at half way and then down the other side. Going back, I went about 2/3 of the way up to the ridge and then stopped for 2 or 3 minutes in the shade from a large boulder next to the trail. I was there not earlier than 9am and not later than 9.15am.
Paul came round the bend from the ridge and down the trail towards me."

To me, this sounds like Neil was hiking back to his car and Paul was hiking out, not having been to the oasis yet, correct? OR does anyone else read it differently? When Neil said "round the bend from the ridge and down the trail" I'm assuming that means Paul was just hiking up and over the ridge on the way out and then started heading down towards Neil (who was hiking up the ridge to return to the trailhead). If that's the case, then there is still, unfortunately, a lot of areas on the trail where something could have happened to Paul, as he still had to complete the out portion of the trail and then the whole hike back.

And I remember from before that there was time discrepancies. Neil even addresses this in his post, saying (I am paraphrasing) that Paul HAD to have left the hotel earlier than is being reported for him to be on the trail between 9-915 when Neil saw him. Yet every article I have read about this has said he left the hotel room at 9, including the one linked a few posts up, where it said: "It was about 9 a.m. that he – an experienced hiker and outdoorsman – told his wife he wanted to do one more hike before they checked out of their hotel room at 11 a.m." So that meant he just left at 9, which means it would have been impossible that Neil saw him on the trail.

So I guess it comes down to, who was accurate on time as to whether or not it's possible that it was him Neil saw. I know the wife said "around 9," but I don't know that she would have said that if it was truly 30 or more minutes earlier. And perhaps she wasn't looking at a clock, but with having a flight to catch, I can't imagine when he said "Hey I'm gonna go for a hike," that she didn't look at the time. All MOO of course. So I don't know where that leaves us. If the wife is right on the time, Neil couldn't have seen Paul (and Neil sounded very confident it was absolutely between 9 and 915 that he saw this man/Paul on the trail).
Click to expand...

I can't find anything that says what hotel they were staying at, but looking at Google maps Fortynine Palms Oasis is less than 10 minutes from most of the hotels on the Highway 62 Strip. So for example of they were staying at the Holiday Inn Express, and he left at 9:00 AM, he would have been at the trailhead by 9:09 AM

Google Maps
 
So if we say his hotel was 10 min away (it could be longer, but let's assume it's the shortest amount of time to give benefit of the doubt), and his wife was correct with the 9 AM time, the earliest he would be at the trailhead would be 910 AM. Then he still has to hike half of the trail going out to be at this ridge.

The whole trail is 3 miles, so half is 1.5 (which would be out to the oasis). Neil says this ridge is halfway to the oasis. So halfway to the oasis where Neil says he saw him must be 0.75 miles. He is gaining elevation going out, it is hot....even if he is in good shape let's say and can move pretty fast, I just don't see someone hiking 3/4 of a mile in 5 min. (and that assumes he literally stopped his car, hopped out and immediately began hiking without looking around at all, looking at a trailhead map, etc). And Neil swears it was absolutely not later than 915 that he saw this man. So I still think the times of Neil vs. his wife don't jive. MOO

ETA: I hike a lot. My hiking time depends on a LOT, of course (elevation gain, elevation I am hiking at, heat, how I am feeling, etc), but I can usually do a mile in about 25 minutes or so. I am not the absolute fastest hiker ever, so even if we say he hikes a full mile in 20 min (which I think is pushing it in this heat, but MOO), he still wouldn't do 3/4 mile in 5 min.
 
Elainera said:
Well the wife said "around 9". That could mean 8.45am. If Paul left at that time Neil could very well have seen him at 9.15.
Click to expand...
True and if Paul were planning to be back by 11, I suspect he may have left a bit before 9:00. Witnesses often give estimates when asked to remember. Also, I give Neil a break on time as well, I mean who really pulls out a phone or looks at their watch to determine the exact time you said "Hi" to a fellow hiker passing by. I always assumed Neil was basing his time generally. He knew what time he left the parking area and probably what time he returned to his car. Then a day later he gives a roundabout time that he saw a hiker that could have been Paul.

I also remember reading the reason he dropped off the radar was about not wanting to become verified. And the some negative comments. If foul play was on the table, who wants to be the last person to claim to see Paul alive....Just my speculation on this point.

In any case, I think it's a strong enough statement that it should be taken seriously. However, it's not much help anyway in finding Paul, because Paul has been searched for along the entire trail and beyond, whether or not someone saw him halfway out.
 
The critical timing question would have easily been resolved by reviewing the hotel's security footage. But would police have taken those steps for a non-criminal investigation?

I understand wanting to do something on the last day before flying home, but to leave "around 9" for a planned hike is odd to me. Sunrise in Twentynine Palms on July 13th was 5:42 AM. Complimentary breakfast hours typically start 6-7 AM (speculating about the type of hotel they stayed at). Maybe he just overslept that morning.
 
Hatfield said:
Ok...thanks and maybe we did discuss this. Then the official statments need to begin talking about this 2nd witness and correct their versions to be more accurate IMO. They still are saying only one witness at the trailhead and that is not correct then.

"thats all" in that article is definitely not all then. A 2nd witness that saw him mid-trail is critical information that needs to be put out with any and all updates about the case. That 2nd witness may be the key to solving this case if its an accurate witness.
Click to expand...
I agree that Neil could be extremely instrumental in recovering Paul. That is why I put out a plea for him to rejoin us upthread.

Sadly, Neil's attempt to help by posting here was met with some discourteous remarks, and he opted to stop posting. If he does chose to try to help again, I hope he will be received with more respect, as all posters deserve.
Just my opinion, of course.
 
I agree that when hiking, you probably wouldn't pull out your watch to look at the time when you pass a hiker, but I was going based off the words Neil himself chose to use when posting here, which are: "Going back, I went about 2/3 of the way up to the ridge and then stopped for 2 or 3 minutes in the shade from a large boulder next to the trail. I was there not earlier than 9am and not later than 9.15am." BBM

He could be mistaken, of course, but he chose to write it definitively like that, not as "I think it was around 9 or 915" which I would have read and taken a totally different way. My point in bringing any of this up was just because I think the timeline is vital here. And I agree with above poster that I hope any surveillance cameras at hotel were looked at to see exactly what time he did leave to go hiking. MOO
 
MntnHiker said:
II was there not earlier than 9am and not later than 9.15am." BBM
Click to expand...
Respectfully snipped for focus.
I tend to put credence as to this timeline because, in my *opinion* and personal experience, I have found hikers to be analytic types who map, chart, and plan. They have to. I don't consider "hikers" as leisure walkers/meanderers. I consider hikers to be purposeful in their journeys. I believe both Neil (based on his posts), and Paul fell in to that category, but tragically something went wrong...as we know all too well.
 
I wish we knew what hotel they stayed at, so we could look at street view images to see if there are outdoor cameras. I am going back and re-reading as many articles on Paul that I can find, but I don't remember any of them mentioning the name of the hotel (and there are several hotels in Twentynine Palms).
 
One thing I noticed re-reading several articles is that they do mention a witness seeing him at the trailhead (which is different than where Neil says he saw him), but I don't see any time attributed to that. I'm sure when the witness from the trailhead came forward, s/he could give an idea of time. I wish we knew what time he was spotted at the start of the hike, as that could give us a more specific timeline yet.
 
A couple comments about the media: firstly, they all literally copy and paste the initial story that comes out. They don't send out a reporter to independently investigate the story.

Secondly, even the initial story was likely written by a jounalist relying on police sources, and spending a very brief amount of time writing up the summary of that information before publishing it and moving on to the next story.. Journalists today are not like paid websleuthers, independently investigating what happened, personally interviewing key witnesses, double checking that all the information is internally consistent. Hence the endless amount of time wasted on this forum as people try to read precise details into what are never more than vague media stories.

Journalists and the media know, the vast majority of their audience just want the gist of the story, and too many details are just information overload. Even if the initial reporter had been told "Paul left the hotel at 8:42 am", I don't believe they would report that, it would be weird to be so detailed in this circumstance. 9 am is sufficient. Similarly, the vague statement about a 'witness at the trailhead' has also turned out, in other investigations, to be a CCTV. Trailheads are frequent sites for break-ins, there could be one there.
 
If Neil's timeline is correct, that might give a clue as to what happened--Paul must have been really booking it to reach the ridge that early. And if he was moving that fast, he might have easily overheated before he even realized what was happening.
 
MntnHiker said:
I wish we knew what hotel they stayed at, so we could look at street view images to see if there are outdoor cameras. I am going back and re-reading as many articles on Paul that I can find, but I don't remember any of them mentioning the name of the hotel (and there are several hotels in Twentynine Palms).
Click to expand...
There aren't a whole lot of hotels there, but I can't find any statement saying exactly which one they were staying in. There are a few that are pretty close to the trailhead. In any case, this map shows a florist and also a veterinary office on the potential inroads he could have driven to get to the trailhead. I hope LE/SAR checked to see if any video exists showing him driving in. Possible these places o f business would have cameras. That would again give a better timeline.

Google Maps
 
zecats said:
There aren't a whole lot of hotels there, but I can't find any statement saying exactly which one they were staying in. There are a few that are pretty close to the trailhead. In any case, this map shows a florist and also a veterinary office on the potential inroads he could have driven to get to the trailhead. I hope LE/SAR checked to see if any video exists showing him driving in. Possible these places o f business would have cameras. That would again give a better timeline.

Google Maps
Click to expand...

When I Googled "hotels in Twentynine Palms," it says there are 38 of them, but I have not looked at what other businesses are on roads leading into the park. That is a good idea that hopefully LE has done already.
 
MntnHiker said:
I agree that when hiking, you probably wouldn't pull out your watch to look at the time when you pass a hiker, but I was going based off the words Neil himself chose to use when posting here, which are: "Going back, I went about 2/3 of the way up to the ridge and then stopped for 2 or 3 minutes in the shade from a large boulder next to the trail. I was there not earlier than 9am and not later than 9.15am." BBM

He could be mistaken, of course, but he chose to write it definitively like that, not as "I think it was around 9 or 915" which I would have read and taken a totally different way. My point in bringing any of this up was just because I think the timeline is vital here. And I agree with above poster that I hope any surveillance cameras at hotel were looked at to see exactly what time he did leave to go hiking. MOO
Click to expand...
RBBM
I agree with you about that, but I still give it possibility since he may have been basing it on what time he started his hike, and how long it would take him to reach the return spot where he was when he "saw" Paul. Then again, since he was stopped and taking a short rest, maybe he was checking the time, or checking his phone. I think more likely that Paul actually started earlier than the "9:00 left the hotel" statement. That would make Neil's sighting legit. jmo
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

DNASolves

Who is DeKalb County John Doe (2022)?

Members online

... and 107 more.
Total: 2,504 (members: 108, guests: 2,396)

Online statistics

Members online
108
Guests online
2,396
Total visitors
2,504
Totals may include hidden visitors.

Forum statistics

Threads
602,436
Messages
18,140,387
Members
231,388
Latest member
pennypiper
Back
Top