Roger’s Escape
My father was a CIA analyst. He said there were 2 simple techniques when trying to ascertain something.
1) Almost everything is possible, but there are few things that are probable. Eliminate the improbable. How do you do that? Many times it’s based on life experiences. Children/Teenagers tend to think in possibilities, not probabilities because they don’t have enough life experiences.
2) It has to make sense. If it doesn’t make sense, there has to be a reason for that-
a) you haven’t asked the right questions.
b) you don’t have enough information; or
c) someone may be withholding the needed information.
So why would Roger leave? My answer is based upon 2 things- 1) what I know from his single-word response for the 2 words/phrases that were part of the in-class free association exercise; and 2) what the sheriff’s detective told me later. That is all it will be based upon- but that is enough.
Roger was experiencing a situation in his life. I think silver1bs had stated near the beginning of this original website that everything with Roger was fine. I know that wasn’t the case from what I read and what the detective had said. That’s why I questioned if this person was really Roger’s sister. However, not many people were aware of his situation. Another earlier poster (I think went by the id ‘Chief’ or something like that) claimed to be a high school friend, and made 2 very interesting comments (now I’m paraphrasing because I don’t know where the post is anymore to look it up- I should tell you I’m not very computer literate, and I don’t know what threads are or how to find them; I use my computer for emails and storing my Classic Rock music collection)- 1) life is not always what it seems; and 2) he hoped Roger found what he was looking for ( I don’t think he was referring to an object, but a state of mind). A couple of people picked up on it, asked some questions about what it could mean, and then it was forgotten. And the Chief never replied again that I know of, so no further explanation. But it does fit into the scenario I was told by the detective. So, these were important statements. That means there were a few people who were aware to one degree or another of Roger’s situation. But no one stepped up to help him- friends or family. Again, I did not find out until after the fact. Roger never came to me and said- “Mr. Pash, I have a situation in my life, and would like you to help me”. Although I will say that when I had the opportunity, I took a college course later on this subject/situation, so that if I ever came across it again, I would have better knowledge of it and how to approach it. There is the possibility that there was more than one issue that Roger was dealing with. I only know of the one issue, so I will not theorize about other reasons as to why he left, just that he did. Now if others want to speculate as to what he was dealing with, that’s their prerogative, but chances are they will be wrong, and if a few do stumble upon it, they really won’t know it. You simply don’t have the information needed to validate your assessment. But we have to consider what’s possible, and more importantly, what’s probable. That latter becomes more difficult to ascertain.
So what do we know?
- Roger was facing a difficult situation in his life. That much is obvious.
What options did Roger have in dealing with his situation?
1a)- Do nothing, and continue to live with his situation- to put up with it as best he could. But apparently, it became overwhelming and this option was no longer a viable choice.
1b)- To confront those responsible for the situation. But from descriptions of him, Roger seemed more affable than confrontational. And by doing so may have made it a public issue, and that was something that may not have been desirable.
1c)- To seek help/assistance from friends or family members in dealing with the situation. It seems there were friends (how many I don’t know) who were aware of the situation to some degree, but felt they couldn’t, shouldn’t, or wouldn’t help in any way. And I find it hard to believe that close family members wouldn’t step up to help. Part of what the detective uncovered came from family. So silver1bs, are you ready to divulge to the sleuthies what they need to know to figure it all out?
1d)- Or, to remove yourself from the situation. Just simply leave. That way the situation is no longer a part of your life. It doesn’t become public. No explanations are necessary. You have the opportunity to start over, to start fresh. For a 17-year old, that may have seemed the best, and easiest, choice. Is there the possibility that maybe a friend/friends suggested this to him as an option? Possibly. Could a person get false identification papers, and achieve a sense of personal freedom and….safety. Teenagers tend to think nothing bad will happen to them, so they are willing to place themselves in dangerous situations without fully realizing or appreciating the danger. So my thought? Roger decided to simply walk out the door and leave the building without ever looking back. If that was his choice, I understand why. How many teenagers runaway every year (for a variety of reasons) to just get away and never look back. Without knowing the particulars, you have no right to judge him. If you were in his circumstances, you might have very well handled it differently. But you are not Roger, so whatever you would have done is irrelevant, and not a basis for judgment.
Is it possible that someone helped him leave after all? That would make it easier. It is possible, so consider these scenarios:
2a) The ski coach was questioned about Roger’s behavior that prior weekend, and apparently he felt everything was fine. But were Roger’s teammates questioned? Were some of them considered his good friends? What about friendships he may have established with members of competing teams? Since he was at a ski event that prior weekend, might he have told one of them what he was planning, and they agreed to help if he was able to get close to where they lived- “If you can get to (fill in the blank), call me and I’ll come get you”. Definitely possible, but you don’t know the likelihood of that scenario playing out without knowing how strong his friendships were.
2b) School friendships are not limited to friends only in the same grade level. Therefore it’s very likely he had friends who had already graduated. They are older, and are likely to have access to a car. Is it possible he may have called one of them and told them what he was going to do? Asked for their help, and they agreed. Again, possible, but the probability factor is based once again on the level of the friendship.
But as I have thought about this case, one issue has stood out and bothered me. It doesn’t make sense-
2c) The morning he left, his friends said they saw him at the lockers. He said he would be right back. But he never shows up in any of his classes. Wouldn’t that raise a concern for them? Not if he told them he was ditchin’ school that day. Had he ever ditched school before? His friends wouldn’t raise a concern if it would get him caught. So he said he’s going to ditch school and for them to play dumb. Not until later did they realize that he actually ran away, but they don’t say anything because they think it might get them in trouble and screw up their senior year (more likely for them than 2 poachers who fear getting a ticket). Or he said he was running away, and to just pretend they didn’t know. But if he didn’t tell them that, why didn’t they wonder where he was and try to find out. Especially if he hadn’t shown up by lunch. You always have lunch with your friends. Well, maybe he got sick and went home. Wouldn’t you call at lunch or after school, or go over after school to see if he was alright? There were only about 50 seniors each year. There are certain classes that are solely for seniors. So some of his friends would have been in those classes with him. And they knew they had seen him that morning, now Roger is not in class. It just doesn’t make sense that they wouldn’t try to find out why. They could go to the office and ask if Roger left sick. Or do they not want to do that so they don’t raise any alarm.
What may have happened to him after leaving? I have no idea. When I left Cedaredge, I was under the impression he had been found (through his social security number) working in a gas station in Kansas. That was the rumor that had spread through the town. Plus the case had been closed. In fact, for the next 15 years or so, I actually used Roger’s circumstances when discussing free association with my classes as an example of how it could help a therapist go in a certain direction of inquiry. But when I found out that he hadn’t been found (a rumor is after all, just a rumor), I stopped using it as an example. But that means about 1500-1800 former students know Roger’s story.
At this point we have reached a fork in the road. One road goes down a dark path- he got abducted by a motorcycle gang or crazy religious zealots, hit by a car while standing on the side of the road and covered up by the driver, tied up by someone with a shotgun, whatever horrible scenario you can come up with. Virtually everyone of you went down that road. And the problem- it’s all conjecture. Pure and simple conjecture. Are you hoping that if this case ever gets resolved, and you were the closest, that you’ll get a trophy or ribbon? Or just bragging rights.
The other road is less dark- he got away. He started a new life, and found peace. But it too can become dark. He moves to a town that he likes, starts his new life, and then, God forbid, has a fatal car accident 15 years later. He has been living there openly with his new identification, so no one would think he’s not who he says he is. No need to finger print him to check out who he is. They’ve known him for 15 years, and so he was buried under that name. How would you ever find that out?
Now I just have a sense that some of you can’t wait to hammer out your latest weird *advertiser censored*, off-the-wall theory. Settle down and think rationally. There are too many variables that you don’t know; you don’t have the real truth nor were you even aware of its existence. Don’t disappoint and fall back into your old patterns.
