Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #13

[Amonet]

The number of people already infected by the mystery virus emerging in China is far greater than official figures suggest, scientists have told the BBC.

There have been 41 laboratory-confirmed cases of the new virus, but UK experts estimate the figure is closer to 1,700.

New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'

Up to 4,500 patients in China may have caught the same strain of coronavirus that has killed two people, scientists fear.

Health officials in Wuhan – the city at the heart of the outbreak which started in December – confirmed four new cases today, taking the total to 48.

But Imperial College London researchers say this may be the 'tip of the iceberg' after analysing flights out of the city.

Experts say the fact three Chinese tourists have tested positive for the virus outside Wuhan indicates the disease toll may be higher than reported.

Scientists fear up to 4,500 Chinese patients may have caught the new coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

COVID-19 -Media, Maps, Videos, Timelines, CDC/WHO Resources, etc. ***NO DISCUSSION***[/b]

POLLS:

POLL: Confident that US agencies are doing everything to prevent the spread of COVID-19?

POLL: What concerns you most about COVID-19?

POLL: Confident in US medical facilities and personnel to adequately manage COVID-19?

POLL: What do you think the status of COVID-19 will be in six months (September, 2020)?

Thread #12

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[Henry2326]

BREAKING: A @Facebook contractor in Seattle has been diagnosed with #coronavirus #covid19. The person was last in the office on Friday, Feb. 21. The office, Stadium East, will close until Monday. Company statement: Ted Land on Twitter

 

[Henry2326]

HAPPY STORY ALERT: @UW @UWVirology has developed it's own #COVID19 test & expects to be testing 1k-1.5k people per day by the end of the week.
Preparation began @ end of 2019, *just in case* it reached U.S.
That decision will save lives.
Go Dawgs.
Seattle Coronavirus Updates on Twitter

They have plans to ramp up testing capacity "substantially beyond" the 1,000-1,500 per day should demand require it.
Seek to move towards a "single swab requirement" which will save resources.
#CoronavirusSeattle #Coronavirus #COVIDー19 #COVID19seattle
UW Medicine develops its own COVID-19 test

 

[Henry2326]

Travis Bedford noted earlier today there are 2 transmissions of the virus running through Seattle. This is his comment on new estimates...

This is good news! (In a terrible situation) We only know of the one transmission chain and we think this contains ~600 (but perhaps up to 1500) infections today. Our numbers among cases with known genetic origins are not up from where they were on Monday. 6/8
Trevor Bedford on Twitter

 

[Tripod]

Sinus is not bacterial.

Sinus infections usually are bacterial. I've had several that occur during and after a bad cold.

 

[JudgeJoe]

Ok I just really figured something out.

Today I noticed my face is more noticeably plump from last week (excessive tator tots, ice cream, etc.).

While it’s important to have these goodies to keep ourselves sane (I personally have no intention of being without chocolate during this outbreak as I hate that “squirrel on crack” feeling)...so, my point is I’m going in for my last round of shopping soon and thinking about what I’ll try to buy this time. Last week was an epic failure.

My focus this week is going to be frozen vegetables and other healthy things, in addition to some treats (perhaps more “fruit based”). We need to take care of ourselves. The last few days I haven’t felt the greatest and I think it’s because I’m run down (which instigated a major hypochondriac episode btw). I finally got a LOT of uninterrupted and much needed rest and feel so much better. We have already talked about the negative effect of stress, etc.

Additionally, while it’s important of course to keep up with the evolving news, especially in one’s area, it’s also good to step away from it for a bit. I’ve noticed this twice now, how much better I feel after stepping away. Some of us can get sucked in to this stuff beyond obsession (raises hand). Take a breather, do something completely unrelated to anything that may trigger thoughts about the “coronavirus”. It is hard to do but sometimes it is needed.

Yes! Step back when watching for hurricanes & new scary germs.

Which brings me back to @Tbone144 ’s credit card condoms. It seems to me that the best solution to the card bacteria is tiny UV lights at the insertion slot. Kills bacteria during dentistry/root canal procedures, so should work here. And more environmentally friendly because no little latex sheaths to toss away through the non-sanitary garbage can flap. I say patent that little sucker up, sell to credit card processing machine manufactures & bank the millions. Buy private island where people with germs will not be allowed entry.

 

[LaborDayRN]

This was both hilarious and not at the same time! You have a gift! Your last paragraph was priceless:



I never watched the series “Breaking Bad” about clandestine meth production, but I think clandestine hand sanitizer “cooking” is the next big thing. You’re onto something!

Maybe @Tbone144 has given us all a "work from home" idea!

 

[Henry2326]

“If [modeled case projection] analysis is correct, that could mean that Washington is in the position that Wuhan was in January, after the virus was detected but had already been spreading in the community.“
Jeremy WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS Konyndyk on Twitter

 

[Tripod]

I wish you could speak to my acquaintances they are 100% convinced it's a huge hoax created by the media to prevent music festivals. I kid you not. That China was paid to hire actors to create a fake crisis to stop music festivals.
I need new acquaintances.

Oh my, lol! I shouldn't laugh, but my goodness gracious. I suppose I just might steer those folks to the CDC website

 

[MimosaMornings]

I’ve got a wide range of reactions from my group of friends - from totally head in sand to full on prepping. One is discussing their upcoming trip out of the country while the other is telling me that domestic travel will shut down in a few weeks.
Is that a real possibility?

 

[Henry2326]

Twenty-nine cases have been confirmed inside India, including three who have recovered.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said he will not attend next week's Holi celebrations, because of advice from experts to avoid mass gatherings. India coronavirus: Country identifies 29 cases as global infections top 94,000 - CNN

 

[firebird]

This is why some of your friends, including myself, believe the Corona virus risk to be ridiculously overstated. Speculation about WHY, well that's another topic. Plus, the flu is killing babies and little kids along with the elderly and health compromised, whilst the Corona virus seems to be passing the children over, thankfully.
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From the links:
So far, 16,000 people have died and 280,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CD

Of the 125 influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2019-2020 season and reported to CDC:

• 87 deaths were associated with influenza B viruses, and 18 had a lineage determined; all were B/Victoria viruses.
• 38 deaths were associated with influenza A viruses, and 23 were subtyped; 22 were A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses and one was an A(H3) virus.

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)

Flu shot better than last year, despite tough season for kids

 

[Henry2326]

This is why some of your friends, including myself, believe the Corona virus risk to be ridiculously overstated. Speculation about WHY, well that's another topic. Plus, the flu is killing babies and little kids along with the elderly and health compromised, whilst the Corona virus seems to be passing the children over, thankfully.
_______

From the links:
So far, 16,000 people have died and 280,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CD

Of the 125 influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2019-2020 season and reported to CDC:

• 87 deaths were associated with influenza B viruses, and 18 had a lineage determined; all were B/Victoria viruses.
• 38 deaths were associated with influenza A viruses, and 23 were subtyped; 22 were A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses and one was an A(H3) virus.

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)

Flu shot better than last year, despite tough season for kids

I guess we will know in about 3 months time. With an R0 of 2 to 2.5, we should see significant fatalities in Seattle by that time with extensive spread through other major cities.

 

[Henry2326]

BREAKING: Number of confirmed cases of coronavirus outside China reaches 15,000 Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[Tadpole12]

Do you think, 1 million infected in 7 to 8 weeks, in U.S. is a reasonable projection?
@H

 

[MJPeony]

@JerseyGirl I’m tagging you for review.

There are 2 women currently on the Grand Princess cruise ship (the one waiting to dock in San Francisco right now) and the women have started a YouTube channel similar to David and Sally Abel.

I won’t post it directly at this point, but the link to their channel can be found through @Kron4news if you go here: Twitter. You may have to click on “see more replies”. (ETA: Hmm, so that didn’t work for me when I just tried it...maybe try this Twitter.... ugh that’s not working either. Darn it, here is link to YouTube that can be traced back to KRON4news:

)

I could only watch the first half.... I kind of have no words at the moment

JerseyGirl, let me know if ok to discuss. I know videos like this are usually not allowed but given the nature of this “case” and the Abel’s updates I thought this was ok.

 

[margarita25]

I already just (re)-posted above the full CDC telebriefing from Tuesday, but wanted to bring this section forward specifically re: “test kits” for both reference and clarity going forward, as it’s obviously a very important aspect of all of this; (sorry for any rehash, I’m still catching up as usual):


“Our next question comes from Craig Figner with CBS Los Angeles. Your line is open.

Thank you. Dr. Messonnier, a couple of questions. Here in California, do we have new information on testing kits, exactly how many have been shipped, will be shipped, when they will arrive? And also, if you can give, are you able to speak freely? Is anybody in the White House telling you to tamp down anything that you otherwise would like to say?

Messonnier: Yeah. So the answer to the first question about California’s test kits is i really have to refer you to the state of California. What i can say is over the weekend we shipped additional test kits to California. And i understand from the FDA commissioner that by the end of the week they expect many more test kits to be available through other pathways besides CDC, which i know is great news for the clinicians out there. In terms of my telebriefings, as many of you know, i have been doing these telebriefings regularly since the start of the outbreak. I think we at CDC have been very open and able to answer lots of different questions, including those posed on these conferences. Thank you.

Next question, please.

Our next question comes from Rebekah Lindstrom from 11 Alive. Your line is open.

Thank you. So, i’m trying to understand exactly how this process is going to be changing now that manufacturers are allowed to produce these test kits independently. So, if I understand it correctly, the test kits were sent out to various states, to the public health department and then they were sending it back to the CDC for verification of the results. Talk to me a little bit about now how that process is going to be working.

Messonnier: Sure. Thanks for the opportunity to really clarify CDC’s role. CDC’s role in this space is in getting a diagnostic quickly and correctly and then working with our public health laboratory partners and state and local health departments to make sure that the public health labs have early access to diagnostic capacity. As part of that process, CDC has sent test kits out to states and those test kits are being used right now by many state health departments because of the FDA regulations, those are still considered presumptive positive until those are confirmed test at CDC, but those are actionable results that is state and local health departments are using those to make public health decisions. That part is CDC’s role. In order to get diagnostics to the front lines, that is, in the clinician’s hand at the bedside in the hospital, that’s really not the CDC public health test kit. That’s the availability of test kits from commercial test manufacturers which is something that is overseen by FDA. Again, based on the comments of the FDA commissioner over the weekend, I guess, last week, they are moving quickly to get those test kits out to commercial test manufacturers. That means it will be a tool in the toolbox of clinicians in clinics and in hospitals that they can use based on clinical suspicion to test their patients. That’s why it’s really important that clinicians look at the CDC guidance on our website, join our webinar so they can hear from us what information they need and also for clinicians to be in close touch with their own health departments so they can understand the local situation and how that might impact how they perceive and treat patients. Next question.

Next question.

To make sure I’m understanding real quick, you’re saying that those tests then that might be in the clinics or at the bedside, would still be presumptive positive and then tests would still go back to the CDC for confirmation?

Messonier: Thanks for letting me clarify. No, those kits — those test kits that are commercially manufactured are overseen by FDA, and they won’t have that same public health confirmatory process I was just talking about.”

 

[firebird]

I think a chest x-ray is well-warranted, if things don't or didn't clear up. I'm going to urge my son to get checked again, if he's still coughing.

Thanks. I don't feel any worse and maybe a little better. But I don't have a fever at all, and the doc said my lungs sounded clear on Monday. So I'm doubting I have a serious health issue here. On the other hand, a smoker in my office was told he likely has pnuemonia even though he otherwise has the exact same symptoms/lack of symptoms as me. Just a dryish intermittent cough, high blood pressure and pulse (likely from being ill), shortness of breath (his is worse than mine, but he smokes...so), but no fever or joint pain or anything else flu'ish. Other co-workers also have the annoying cough, but I'm not personallhy close enough to them to quiz them about it Plus, as I mentioned, another close colleague and his wife both had contagious pnuemonia within the past 6 weeks. Idk what's going on, but it surely seems "coincidental" for a very small office. Otoh, I've had the actual flu at least once and this is NOTHING like that experience. As I recall I had a raging fever and joint pain and basically slept on the floor for a couple of days, straight. So if this is the corona virus, most of us can relax and just stay away from the susceptible as much as possible. I haven't even had trouble sleeping.

 

[Henry2326]

Do you think, 1 million infected in 7 to 8 weeks, in U.S. is a reasonable projection?
@H

Possibly 5 to 6 weeks. Both China and South Korea demonstrated an R0 of 2.0 or so. The graphs attached show a projection for each, with the Chinese graph BEFORE they were able to flatten the curve with their actions. It runs to 1.0 million in 5 to 6 weeks. Left unchecked with no mandated quarantines, the US will suffer.

 

[Henry2326]

This is a great move and should be scaled broadly for #COVID19 screening:
“Dr. Jeff Powis, the medical director of infection prevention and control at the Michael Garron Hospital, in Toronto is ready to open a 14-room #COVID19 screening clinic next week” Ont. hospital to set up special COVID-19 clinic to ease busy emergency rooms