Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #8

[dixiegirl1035]

I've been reading, watching this develop since the beginning. What has really bothered me the most is the route of transmission. We know that it is droplet, but I get the feeling that it is also significantly indirect. My gut tells me that this critter is hardier than the "normal" virus, and is surviving on surfaces longer than expected. The incubation was initially estimated at 2 weeks, with the most common development of symptoms at 5 days. However, that seems to be changing to a longer incubation. Which is why I suspect it's surviving on surfaces longer than just hours, and more like days. So, indirect transmission is just as concerning as droplet/airborn. Wash hands. A lot. Keep hands away from face as much as possible. Try to keep a 3 ft bubble of space around you at all times. To my fellow healthcare workers, be safe out there.

There were a few sections on transmission in the WHO China team report. Within families once prevention and control measures happen. Here's one excerpt that discussion where transmission is most likely to occur. FYI

From the joint mission WHO press conference (PDF below)
"Familial clustering of COVID-19 has been identified, especially in Guangdong and Sichuan, where up to 78% - 85% of the confirmed cases were from familiar clusters. The familial clustering just reflected that the prevention and control measures in these two provinces are highly effective. Thanks to the these strict prevention and control measures, only the second-generation cases and clusters occurred inside families after the occurrence of imported cases. No continuous community spread was found."....

"For example, in other provinces, the clustered cases we have seen are clusters of families, and there are no second-generation cases at the community level, so we see that the method adopted in China is to conduct exhaustive case identification and close contact tracing, quarantine, and basic hygiene measures, including constant emphasis on the importance of frequent hand washing to the public."

From the Joint WHO Mission Final report (PDF below)

"Household transmission -
In China, human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus is largely occurring in
families. The Joint Mission received detailed information from the investigation of clusters
and some household transmission studies, which are ongoing in a number of Provinces.
Among 344 clusters involving 1308 cases (out of a total 1836 cases reported) in Guangdong
Province and Sichuan Province, most clusters (78%-85%) have occurred in families.
Household transmission studies are currently underway, but preliminary studies ongoing in
Guangdong estimate the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.....

China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain
transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the
global response. This rather unique and unprecedented public health response in
China reversed the escalating cases in both Hubei, where there has been widespread
community transmission, and in the importation provinces, where family clusters
appear to have driven the outbreak."

 

[dixiegirl1035]

The first video has the epidemiologist from Pandemic on Netflix, I think. She estimates 40-60-% of Americans will get it but for most it will be mild.

Semantics are important. The male announcer said "may" in his overlay of the interview with clips. The doctor herself never said any percentage on camera, just what the categories are. The word "may" comes from projections which have been done by statisticians that we've discussed in the first two threads, and reflect what "may/could" happen if there were no interventions, which of course now countries are doing. In the US are many interventions and surveillance etc. to prevent such a number from happening is the preparations and actions done to date, and those to come in the future. MOO

 

[galiuro1]

So disappointed and disgusted with my government (all branches up and down the line)...so impressed with scientists and doctors who are working on this, and the medical staff who have to actually be the boots on the ground...

But having to turn my own eyes to my blooming roses and marvel at their petals poking up into thin clouds over a deep blue sky. Gotta get it whilst I can...

 

[beatrixpotter]

Why did CDC send NYC man home without testing for coronavirus?

Coronavirus Precautions: International Travelers Arriving At NYC Airports Concerned By Lack Of Screenings

And this is exactly what I thought was happening. Almost no diagnosis anywhere for weeks making it look like things were under control while it's seeding everywhere. I knew there was no way all these people are flying in to the US and NONE of them was infectious. But we had no new diagnosis. Then we discover the tests were faulty.

And now we hear they are refusing to test people unless they meet certain cockamamie diagnosis criteria. I remember reading the same of people in China. One lady couldn't get in a hospital anywhere, couldn't get the right paperwork to be treated or hospitalized. Then weeks later was hauled off to a quarantine camp because she couldn't get the right paperwork to prove she had already had COVID-19. They demanded paperwork from a hospital to prove she was no longer ill but she couldn't get it since she was never allowed in a hospital to begin with.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

JMO
Ive heard similar incomplete and incompetent
news updates from health officials that are supposed to know all about this new virus.

Since the very beginning, I have followed this Coronavirus news heavily from a variety of news sources, and as I hear the Local and National government press conferences, major morning TV news shows, and even CDC updates, I am convinced I am getting more accurate news from watching a variety of qualified doctor Youtubers, actual affected people Youtubers like the British couple that ended up getting the virus, the BNO website, etc.

By using so many internet sources, I get a well rounded and fairly accurate view of what is going on, and a lot of times, it is now conflicting with what the local and national officials here in the states are starting to parrot off each other. What is concerning too, is that they do share some parts that are accurate, but then make broad sweeping inaccurate statements that most people will believe and its just plain wrong information.

Like during the California PC that had the bad audio late yesterday, they were asked if they were tracing and contacting other students while the infected student was in class before he/she showed symptoms, and the response was not comforting. The officials said that they only worried about people he/she contacted after he/she started to show symptoms. Well the problem with that, is I have heard from numerous other sources that this Coronavirus can spread in asymptomatic people (no symptoms yet), so it was plain false what the official said IMO.

You would think to be on the safe side they would at least contact every classmate in every class he/she had and let them know to contact them at the first sign of any cough, fever, headache or other symptom we know happens with this. But no, the officials there are plain not even trying to contact the person's classmates because they claim he/she did not show symptoms yet. Things like this are very important if you want to try to stop the spreading. IMO our US officials are showing signs that they are failing us already.

Its inexcusable because they had plenty of time to get ready as China took the main hit before it got to US and other countries soils.

I bet I'm not the only person here who during pressers for local US folks..we know more accurate answers for questions they pose, and catch the inaccuracies. Myself, I'm not even following tv news for this subject. ONLY here and on the net for sources I trust that we all here now accept as fabulous day to day sources, and some that aren't even MSM (thanks mod JerseyGirl) such as David and Sally, Dr. Sh.... and Dr. C YouTubes.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Speaking of...............here is latest Dr. C posted an hour ago

 

[mickey2942]

He wasn’t sick enough to test? Omg really! This is getting out of hand already

The problem is that things are changing so fast, that "boots on the ground" people don't have the information from policy makers.

Policy makers don't know what to do, they are afraid of being extremist, or alternatively, being too lax. The problem here, is that there is no middle ground. And government officials are leery of actually making decisions.

I note that our president declared that he closed the border with China. Ummm, no, it was private industry that made the decision, specifically, the pilot's union, unanimously agreed that their members would not work in unsafe conditions. No flights to China, or no flights anywhere.

Government, and even the airline industry didn't make the decision to stop flying to China. It was a union contract issue.

 

[WideOpen]

Agreed!
This has been an excellent source of information, thank you frequent posters providing links and material we can explore further if needed!

Im in the Charleston, SC area and I do not see too much panic or low stock yet.

jmo

 

[Herat]

Around here, there is a shortage of hospital beds. ER is overwhelmed with people, entire families in hallways, kids running around touching everything, it is crazy busy every time I go. You have to stay with your relative the entire time to be sure they are getting what they need.

Our local ER expanded to add more triage area and a post-triage waiting room with more separation between patients. They do the intake and triage very quickly to identify those whose problems may concern infections. It has substantially reduced the cross traffic and is much better for families with children. Much easier to put symptomatic people or those who might need specific kinds of care into safer places.

 

[Herat]

Did this get posted already upthread?

120 UC Davis employees are in self-quarantine:

More than 120 UC Davis health care staff in self-quarantine after possible exposure to coronavirus - CNN

At least 35 of those are nurses. So that means UC Davis has an immediate nursing staff reduction of 35 nurses + who knows how many other personnel such as respiratory therapists, laboratory assistants, housekeepers, etc etc etc.

So once again, one of the side effects of a serious COVID-19 infection is more fatigue on the healthcare team as others have to add in additional shifts or take on more patients in a tertiary care setting.

 

[x_files]

See this is the sort of thing I worry about. Here is a man who lived through the experience in Wuhan, being quarantined, having his FIL die, and his wife being sick.....and even if he says he's been checked twice, he takes no precautions. Who is to know that incubation can't last a bit more than 2 weeks, or if he has been reinfected by another during his evacuation ?

What about all those other people who are not well informed, or who may ignore symptoms while carrying on their regular lives, or those who go to the doctor or ER without calling ahead? I have a neighbor for example who thinks this is all blown out of proportion, and doesn't bother informing herself of the facts. There are probably an untold number of people who are busy doing their thing, occupied with making a living, or whatever who are simply not taking heed. Before you know it, one such person could cause domino effect in one community and spread from there.

I almost felt this had to be a joke.
He isn't taking this seriously. His poor daughter.

 

[What if...]

I’m thinking a lot about, as you mentioned above, “population density”. I’m all over the place right now but have one window open on “disease mapping” in Singapore ( @otto ).

Anyway, I’m watching different YT videos (as usual), and noticing the number of infected of cases as they appear in intervals, in their own respective countries.

For example, S. Korea mentions their first case on Jan. 31 (iirc, need to go back and double check that), then their numbers spike about Feb. 16, iirc. There’s a video that talks about this, noting to post link.

However, it’s hard to draw comparisons jmo because different countries have different dynamics, whether they be related to testing kits, containment, health care, population, many factors.

But I’m just thinking about this as relating to California, and other states and countries, that if we look at the time intervals of exposure to infection as related to the different clusters we know about...

Bottom line - as I said earlier, I wonder what will things look like in 7, 14, and 21 days from now. What will things look in 2 to 3 weeks?

——

I’m trying to pull today’s WHO PC transcript (link error / page not found thing going on all day with that so hopefully that’ll be fixed soon), but today they talked about the containment measures that seem to be helping in China.

There’s a whole segment of discussion re: “containment and/vs. mitigation”...

Oh my head too much input. Need more coffee.

@margarita25 this is a great post!

As you pointed out, there are a lot of fluid dynamics to this outbreak, and I believe that’s something to take note of. There is a GREAT MULTITUDE of variables that need to be considered when trying to determine the way a virus such as this one will spread, as well as how it will be handled.

I mentioned population density because that is a HUGE factor, closely followed by living quarter proximity. Extra precautions will need to be taken by those living in apartment high rises in large cities vs those living in single dwelling homes in sparsely populated areas.

I was thinking about some of the dynamics of the way COVID-19 APPEARS to spread, and IMO, the US (and countries similar in layout) do have an advantage in the fight against the spread.
The US does have a large number of heavily populated cities dotted across the country, but there’s also a lot of open land between those cities - so there are some natural containment borders. Now I’m not suggesting that the virus won’t make its way across the country as I’m actually of the opinion that it will, but I do believe these natural barriers will allow better overall management of the outbreaks. Rather than one large sweeping non-stop wave, hopefully it will roll across in a series of smaller waves. If the timing of those waves can be manipulated just enough to be offset, then resources can be directed to the hot spots for better management. IMO, these small offsets could greatly improve the prospects of managing and directing resources where needed.

The number of variables pertaining to the spread, containment, response, and final outcome are innumerable and multidimensional.

Still trying to wrap my brain around all the information that everyone’s posted just since last night!! My continued and heart felt thanks to each of you that have contributed to this thread! The information provided has been immense, and the humor has been both needed and appreciated!! The benefits of humor and laughter are too often underrated.

Time for more coffee before I continue to catch up!!

(Also adding that, IMO, now would be a really good time for the US to legalize weed nation-wide!!
We (I) could all use a little anxiety reduction right about now, & the economy could really use the financial boost! Win/Win!!!)

(ETA - maybe we could get nation-wide legalization added to our WS poll! )

As always ~ all MOO....

 

[Hatfield]

I bet I'm not the only person here who during pressers for local US folks..we know more accurate answers for questions they pose, and catch the inaccuracies. Myself, I'm not even following tv news for this subject. ONLY here and on the net for sources I trust that we all here now accept as fabulous day to day sources, and some that aren't even MSM (thanks mod JerseyGirl) such as David and Sally, Dr. Sh.... and Dr. C YouTubes.

Exactly. I think I will start to ignore some of the normal MSM news shows I usually watch to pickup headlines. All the information links we really need have been shared here to dig up accurate information.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

I’m thinking a lot about, as you mentioned above, “population density”. I’m all over the place right now but have one window open on “disease mapping” in Singapore ( @otto ).

Anyway, I’m watching different YT videos (as usual), and noticing the number of infected of cases as they appear in intervals, in their own respective countries.

For example, S. Korea mentions their first case on Jan. 31 (iirc, need to go back and double check that), then their numbers spike about Feb. 16, iirc. There’s a video that talks about this, noting to post link.

However, it’s hard to draw comparisons jmo because different countries have different dynamics, whether they be related to testing kits, containment, health care, population, many factors.

But I’m just thinking about this as relating to California, and other states and countries, that if we look at the time intervals of exposure to infection as related to the different clusters we know about...

Bottom line - as I said earlier, I wonder what will things look like in 7, 14, and 21 days from now. What will things look in 2 to 3 weeks?

——

I’m trying to pull today’s WHO PC transcript (link error / page not found thing going on all day with that so hopefully that’ll be fixed soon), but today they talked about the containment measures that seem to be helping in China.

There’s a whole segment of discussion re: “containment and/vs. mitigation”...

Oh my head too much input. Need more coffee.

Your post "I’m trying to pull today’s WHO PC transcript (link error / page not found thing going on all day with that so hopefully that’ll be fixed soon), but today they talked about the containment measures that seem to be helping in China."


Give me a @ shout out if you cannot view, and I'll download and upload a PDF here on threads for you and others.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

@margarita25 this is a great post!

As you pointed out, there are a lot of fluid dynamics to this outbreak, and I believe that’s something to take note of. There is a GREAT MULTITUDE of variables that need to be considered when trying to determine the way a virus such as this one will spread, as well as how it will be handled.

I mentioned population density because that is a HUGE factor, closely followed by living quarter proximity. Extra precautions will need to be taken by those living in apartment high rises in large cities vs those living in single dwelling homes in sparsely populated areas.

I was thinking about some of the dynamics of the way COVID-19 APPEARS to spread, and IMO, the US (and countries similar in layout) do have an advantage in the fight against the spread.
The US does have a large number of heavily populated cities dotted across the country, but there’s also a lot of open land between those cities - so there are some natural containment borders. Now I’m not suggesting that the virus won’t make its way across the country as I’m actually of the opinion that it will, but I do believe these natural barriers will allow better overall management of the outbreaks. Rather than one large sweeping non-stop wave, hopefully it will roll across in a series of smaller waves. If the timing of those waves can be manipulated just enough to be offset, then resources can be directed to the hot spots for better management. IMO, these small offsets could greatly improve the prospects of managing and directing resources where needed.

The number of variables pertaining to the spread, containment, response, and final outcome are innumerable and multidimensional.

Still trying to wrap my brain around all the information that everyone’s posted just since last night!! My continued and heart felt thanks to each of you that have contributed to this thread! The information provided has been immense, and the humor has been both needed and appreciated!! The benefits of humor and laughter are too often underrated.

Time for more coffee before I continue to catch up!!

(Also adding that, IMO, now would be a really good time for the US to legalize weed nation-wide!!
We (I) could all use a little anxiety reduction right about now, & the economy could really use the financial boost! Win/Win!!!)

(ETA - maybe we could get nation-wide legalization added to our WS poll! )

As always ~ all MOO....

Great post, thanks!

 

[JerseyGirl]

this thread has reached its limit. I will move over recent posts and close this shortly

Please continue here:

Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #9