10ofRods
Verified Anthropologist
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Yep, 80% is when herd immunity results as the end game. You call it fear mongering, but the truth is scary sometimes. That doesn't mean folks should discount it, hopefully it will make them ACT.
It's a mathematical formula if nothing was done and the virus had a certain R0, (I think they used R0 of 3 when we discussed this in ~ thread #2) what herd immunity would result in.
Folks downplay by calling it fear mongering, but it's just a simple fact MOO if NOTHING was done. It's well accepted modelling for epidemics that scientists use all over, and it pooh poohed by many folks who just can't believe or wrap their heads around it.
I just had a FB interaction with someone who was pooh poohing what his city said about having only 107 cases, and that his county said over 50,000 by beginning of May and 1,000 deaths if folks didn't change their behavior/isolate/stay at home, and this was my response.
"I think many state/local governments are modelling for the worst case perhaps to align capacity for their health systems, and to get the average person to modify their behavior - is it working? I read the article you are referring to, and in it states that says "Currently, the county is seeing a doubling of confirmed cases every 4-5 days." So if your folks are using a doubling time of your current 107 cases every 4 days, your county would indeed get over 50,000 positive tests and 1,000 deaths with a 2% death rate by May 1 or until the peak is reached and starts to come down with that input. I just did the math. (Heck, they could have started with the 8 deaths because who the hell knows the true rate of infection anywhere in the US, and ended up mathematically with 4,096 deaths if doubled every 4 days) . The models are tools for tactics to justify their decisions which indeed does scare folks even when they can't fathom it to be true. Yet, it indeed could be if nothing was changed, such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses. Buuuutttttt, if the doubling of that 107 is every 5 days vs. 4, you will decrease projected infections from 50,000 to 19,000 and deaths from 1,000 to 380 in the same period. Buuutttttt, If it doubles every 6 days you get down to 6,848 cases and 137 deaths.......But using worse case scenario of doubling every 4 days is more likely to make you, the average person, change your behavior to get that doubling time longer with less infections; and cities need to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
Even if everything is done, we'll still reach herd immunity (or higher) within a couple of years. That's why some people's doctors are telling them...2022. I have two cousins who both had cancer (multiple myeloma survivor in the family - got it when he was 57 and he is now one of the longest living survivors in the nation, an incredible guy, aged 70 now - he must NOT get this). Both are on immune suppressants for life. One had a complete bone marrow transplant - twice.
SO. It's going to remain around. It looks like some people who develop antibodies still shed live virus - perhaps indefinitely (although, as with the common cold, probably a very small number). But for the vulnerable, this one is out there, here to stay, not going anywhere and very very virulent (easy to catch) and aggressive (has new mechanisms for assaulting your immune system).
It's those new mechanisms that are costing human lives. NO one had even vague immunity to this - it's just like when Europeans brought their viruses to the New World (and took some new ones back).