Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #39

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Yep, 80% is when herd immunity results as the end game. You call it fear mongering, but the truth is scary sometimes. That doesn't mean folks should discount it, hopefully it will make them ACT.

It's a mathematical formula if nothing was done and the virus had a certain R0, (I think they used R0 of 3 when we discussed this in ~ thread #2) what herd immunity would result in.

Folks downplay by calling it fear mongering, but it's just a simple fact MOO if NOTHING was done. It's well accepted modelling for epidemics that scientists use all over, and it pooh poohed by many folks who just can't believe or wrap their heads around it.

I just had a FB interaction with someone who was pooh poohing what his city said about having only 107 cases, and that his county said over 50,000 by beginning of May and 1,000 deaths if folks didn't change their behavior/isolate/stay at home, and this was my response.

"I think many state/local governments are modelling for the worst case perhaps to align capacity for their health systems, and to get the average person to modify their behavior - is it working? I read the article you are referring to, and in it states that says "Currently, the county is seeing a doubling of confirmed cases every 4-5 days." So if your folks are using a doubling time of your current 107 cases every 4 days, your county would indeed get over 50,000 positive tests and 1,000 deaths with a 2% death rate by May 1 or until the peak is reached and starts to come down with that input. I just did the math. (Heck, they could have started with the 8 deaths because who the hell knows the true rate of infection anywhere in the US, and ended up mathematically with 4,096 deaths if doubled every 4 days) . The models are tools for tactics to justify their decisions which indeed does scare folks even when they can't fathom it to be true. Yet, it indeed could be if nothing was changed, such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses. Buuuutttttt, if the doubling of that 107 is every 5 days vs. 4, you will decrease projected infections from 50,000 to 19,000 and deaths from 1,000 to 380 in the same period. Buuutttttt, If it doubles every 6 days you get down to 6,848 cases and 137 deaths.......But using worse case scenario of doubling every 4 days is more likely to make you, the average person, change your behavior to get that doubling time longer with less infections; and cities need to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

Even if everything is done, we'll still reach herd immunity (or higher) within a couple of years. That's why some people's doctors are telling them...2022. I have two cousins who both had cancer (multiple myeloma survivor in the family - got it when he was 57 and he is now one of the longest living survivors in the nation, an incredible guy, aged 70 now - he must NOT get this). Both are on immune suppressants for life. One had a complete bone marrow transplant - twice.

SO. It's going to remain around. It looks like some people who develop antibodies still shed live virus - perhaps indefinitely (although, as with the common cold, probably a very small number). But for the vulnerable, this one is out there, here to stay, not going anywhere and very very virulent (easy to catch) and aggressive (has new mechanisms for assaulting your immune system).

It's those new mechanisms that are costing human lives. NO one had even vague immunity to this - it's just like when Europeans brought their viruses to the New World (and took some new ones back).
 
Oh

@zecats what did you out in the treasure boxes? Do tell.
I ordered a bunch of coloring books, crayons, markers & pencils for my nail salon techs to give their kids. They are up the creek. They all work on a cash basis, idk what will happen to them. I always felt sorry for their children, mostly forced to sit in the salon all summer all day. All well behaved, sitting quietly, with little to do. I’m going to make arrangements to get stuff to them next week, working on a strategy.

I sent one for each child separately. Granddaughter says that her brother (younger) thinks everything is for him otherwise. LOL

I included a card to each of them with a note and a list of the items, where they came from or why I included them. Also, to name a few:

*Heart candy (from Valentine's Day)
*Coloring pages
*Stuffed animals (her -an elephant holding a heart in its trunk/ him a
Saint Bernard carrying a barrel
*Note cards
*Phillies baseball banks, trucks and bobbleheads
*Some hot wheels (him) and tiny hummingbird earrings (her)
*Fancy bookmarks

I mailed them Thursday afternoon and they received them already - this morning. Fastest ever for USPS from here to there.

ETA I ordered more stuff to send for Easter - puzzle and sticker books, reading books, and journals for them to write in, since schoolwork is all online etc.
 
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L
I’m around. Definitely not coming on here because it’s depressing. I’m trying to avoid most news about this and stay as positive as possible.

One day at a time, ya’ll.

I do have a lot of faith in science, in humanity and in all of us to be able to get through this. We can do it. And we will.

Love you guys.

Love you too. I totally get how it can be depressing. I am obsessed with the news (especially science news) about CV19 and am STILL optimistic about total outcomes.

I just don't want you, personally, to get sick.
 
I sent one for each child separately. Granddaughter says that her brother (younger) thinks everything is for him otherwise. LOL

I include a card to each of them with a note and a list of the items, where they came from or why I included them. Also, to name a few:

*Heart candy (from Valentine's Day)
*Coloring pages
*Stuffed animals (her -an elephant holding a heart in its trunk/ him a
Saint Bernard carrying a barrel
*Note cards
*Phillies baseball banks, trucks and bobbleheads
*Some hot wheels (him) and tiny hummingbird earrings (her)
*Fancy bookmarks

I mailed them Thursday afternoon and they received them already - this morning. Faster ever for USPS from here to there.

ETA I ordered more stuff to send for Easter - puzzle and sticker books, reading books, and journals for them to write in, since schoolwork is all online etc.

You are the best. We decided we'd see our 5 year old granddaughter, despite risks. I worry about it a little. She has one babysitter for one day a week who is supposed to be self-isolating, but has a husband who is extremely extroverted. I keep asking questions.

I guess I have some faith in my immune system (lung damage, lifelong asthmatic). I am 65.
 
I’m contemplating adopting a puppy, but not 100% sure.
My gal is completely deaf due to fireworks a few years ago. Sadly she was fine 07/04 until a neighbor had a commercial firework event, the next day she kept tipping over & shaking her head. I had no idea what was wrong until I opened the fridge & she failed to hear me, then I knew. She’s also old & chubby, idk if she’d like a child dog around. I can’t foster, I would never be able to give the dog up. It would be too emotional. I’m really concerned too many dogs will wind up in shelters. Can Purina not send out vouchers? Send one to every address, anyone without animals can give theirs away. Moo
Foster a senior dog! More available, less likely to get adopted, less "issues" You could foster and the fur baby might never leave. And that's ok! You made room for another dog and saved a life, letting the senior experience love, and snuggles, the good life for the rst of it's days!
 
We’ll have to see what it looks like. I don’t know what the Federal government can do that the states themselves cannot do. I’m sure there’s something, but there’s a line there in terms of enforcement.
The FAA controls air travel and the FRA controls railroads. I remember after 9/11 there wasn't any air travel for several days. I think Trump has the authority to shut-down all non-essential interstate air and train travel.

JMO
 
Her vision is perfect, she’s fine and we have our own sign language. The sad part is one day she could hear perfectly and hours later nothing, so she had to immediately adjust.
Prob’ much dif’ than slowly losing it.
I might drive her to a nursing home or two, and walk her around so the residents can see her! Maybe I’ll do so tomorrow, weather permitting. She’s a ham as well as a stunning red head, maybe she can brighten an otherwise grim day for someone. The days must be hideously long for the elderly in nursing homes.

Aren’t our fur babies the best? She would bring so much joy to nursing homes, etc. Maybe peek through the outside window.
 
We own a auto repair shop. Yesterday a young guy came in for an inspection. We know him. We know his parents and step mom. We actually celebrated thanksgiving, and many other occasions with them.
“Guy”uses a few of DH’s tools to fix something minor. When DH was finishing up the inspection he asked “Guy” how his dad is. Turns out dad tested positive a week ago. Step mom called out of work yesterday because she wasn’t feeling well!! WTH IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE ??!!
DH cleaned and sprayed the tools Guy used, sprayed the doorknobs, threw his gloves in the dumpster, scrubbed hands , and put new gloves on.
 
Friday’s Transcript of Opening Remarks / WHO Briefing:

“WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 27 March 2020
27 March 2020

“Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, wherever you are.

There are now more than half a million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 20,000 deaths.

These are tragic numbers, but let's also remember that around the world, more than 100,000 people have recovered.

Yesterday, I had the honour of addressing an extraordinary meeting of leaders from the G20 countries.

My message was threefold: we must fight, unite and ignite.

Fight to stop the virus with every resource at our disposal;

Unite to confront the pandemic together. We are one humanity, with one, common enemy. No country can fight alone; we can only fight together.

And ignite the industrial might and innovation of the G20 to produce and distribute the tools needed to save lives.

We must also make a promise to future generations, saying never again.

Viral outbreaks are a fact of life. How much damage they do is something we can influence.

I thank the G20 countries for their commitment to fight the pandemic, safeguard the global economy, address international trade disruptions and enhance global cooperation.

This is especially important for countries who are not part of the G20 but will be affected by decisions made by G20 countries.

Earlier today, we held a briefing with around 50 Ministers of Health from around the world at which China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore shared their experiences and the lessons they have learned.

Several common themes emerged about what has worked:

The need for early detection and isolation of confirmed cases;

Identification, follow-up and quarantine of contacts;

The need to optimize care;

And the need to communicate to build trust and engage communities in the fight.

Countries also expressed several common challenges.

The chronic global shortage of personal protective equipment is now one of the most urgent threats to our collective ability to save lives.

WHO has shipped almost 2 million individual items of protective gear to 74 countries that need it most, and we’re preparing to send a similar amount to a further 60 countries.

But much more is needed.

This problem can only be solved with international cooperation and international solidarity.

When health workers are at risk, we’re all at risk.

Health workers in low- and middle-income countries deserve the same protection as those in the wealthiest countries.

To support our call on all countries to conduct aggressive case-finding and testing, we’re also working urgently to massively increase the production and capacity for testing around the world.

One of the most important areas of international cooperation is research and development.

A vaccine is still at least 12 to 18 months away.

In the meantime, we recognize that there is an urgent need for therapeutics to treat patients and save lives.

Today we are delighted to announce that in Norway and Spain, the first patients will shortly be enrolled in the Solidarity Trial, which will compare the safety and effectiveness of four different drugs or drug combinations against COVID-19.

This is a historic trial which will dramatically cut the time needed to generate robust evidence about what drugs work.

More than 45 countries are contributing to the trial, and more have expressed interest. The more countries who join the trial, the faster we will have results.

In the meantime, we call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19.

The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn't work in humans or were actually harmful.

During the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial.

We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.

We also need to ensure that using unproven drugs does not create a shortage of those medicines to treat diseases for which they have proven effective.

As the pandemic evolves and more countries are affected, we are learning more and more lessons about what works and what doesn't.

WHO is continuing to support all countries in the response.

We’ve published more than 40 guidance documents on our website, providing detailed, evidence-based recommendations for governments, hospitals, health workers, members of the public and more.

More than 1 million health workers have been trained through our courses on OpenWHo_Org. We will continue to train more.

We’re also delighted to report that the COVID-19 Solidarity Fund has now received donations of more than US$ 108 million in just two weeks, from 203,000 individuals and organizations.

Thank you to each and every one of you.

The English version of our WhatsApp Health Alert now has more than 12 million users globally, and the Arabic, French and Spanish versions were launched today. More languages will be added, including Bangla, Chinese, Hindi, Kurdish, Portuguese, Russian, Somali, Urdu, Swahili and more.

I’ve said before that crises like this bring out the best and worst in humanity.

We have recently seen an increase in scams, cyberattacks and impersonation using WHO, my name and COVID-19.

I am very grateful to those working in various national organizations providing critical cybersecurity intelligence to the WHO Cybersecurity team.

Thank you for your efforts to work with us to protect the health systems, health workers and members of the general public who rely on our information systems and digital tools. Special thanks to Microsoft for assisting on this.

I’d like to end with something Singapore’s Minister of Health, Gan Kim Yong, said during today’s briefing.

We are only at the beginning of this fight.

We need to stay calm, stay united and work together.

I thank you.”

Full video of the above Friday Briefing which includes Q & A:
Press briefings
thank you soooooo much. truly.
 
Isn't amazing that what is basically software used by marketing firms to track where their apps go...gives us this great epidemiological data.

Though it's horrifying to contemplate what has happened in Illinois (Chicago in particular) since they arrived. Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, Indiana...your college kids have brought it to you.

There's a tiny cluster in Albuquerque, a big one in Phoenix (WHY? Why, Arizona Students, why not just enjoy your own lovely state?)

Apparently, and for obvious reasons, almost no Spring Breakers from California went to Florida.

The above data was a snapshot of one set of Spring Break beach goers on a peak day.
They definitely know what areas are going to have increasing numbers 7-14 days after that!
Moo
Perhaps why Trump has mentioned CT, NY and NJ?
Moo
 
I’m contemplating adopting a puppy, but not 100% sure.
My gal is completely deaf due to fireworks a few years ago. Sadly she was fine 07/04 until a neighbor had a commercial firework event, the next day she kept tipping over & shaking her head. I had no idea what was wrong until I opened the fridge & she failed to hear me, then I knew. She’s also old & chubby, idk if she’d like a child dog around. I can’t foster, I would never be able to give the dog up. It would be too emotional. I’m really concerned too many dogs will wind up in shelters. Can Purina not send out vouchers? Send one to every address, anyone without animals can give theirs away. Moo
BBM. Of course you won't be able to give up a foster dog. We did it and never regretted it.
 
We own a auto repair shop. Yesterday a young guy came in for an inspection. We know him. We know his parents and step mom. We actually celebrated thanksgiving, and many other occasions with them.
“Guy”uses a few of DH’s tools to fix something minor. When DH was finishing up the inspection he asked “Guy” how his dad is. Turns out dad tested positive a week ago. Step mom called out of work yesterday because she wasn’t feeling well!! WTH IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE ??!!
DH cleaned and sprayed the tools Guy used, sprayed the doorknobs, threw his gloves in the dumpster, scrubbed hands , and put new gloves on.
That says it all right there.
 
Friday’s Transcript of Opening Remarks / WHO Briefing:

“WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 27 March 2020
27 March 2020

“Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, wherever you are.

There are now more than half a million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 20,000 deaths.

These are tragic numbers, but let's also remember that around the world, more than 100,000 people have recovered.

Yesterday, I had the honour of addressing an extraordinary meeting of leaders from the G20 countries.

My message was threefold: we must fight, unite and ignite.

Fight to stop the virus with every resource at our disposal;

Unite to confront the pandemic together. We are one humanity, with one, common enemy. No country can fight alone; we can only fight together.

And ignite the industrial might and innovation of the G20 to produce and distribute the tools needed to save lives.

We must also make a promise to future generations, saying never again.

Viral outbreaks are a fact of life. How much damage they do is something we can influence.

I thank the G20 countries for their commitment to fight the pandemic, safeguard the global economy, address international trade disruptions and enhance global cooperation.

This is especially important for countries who are not part of the G20 but will be affected by decisions made by G20 countries.

Earlier today, we held a briefing with around 50 Ministers of Health from around the world at which China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore shared their experiences and the lessons they have learned.

Several common themes emerged about what has worked:

The need for early detection and isolation of confirmed cases;

Identification, follow-up and quarantine of contacts;

The need to optimize care;

And the need to communicate to build trust and engage communities in the fight.

Countries also expressed several common challenges.

The chronic global shortage of personal protective equipment is now one of the most urgent threats to our collective ability to save lives.

WHO has shipped almost 2 million individual items of protective gear to 74 countries that need it most, and we’re preparing to send a similar amount to a further 60 countries.

But much more is needed.

This problem can only be solved with international cooperation and international solidarity.

When health workers are at risk, we’re all at risk.

Health workers in low- and middle-income countries deserve the same protection as those in the wealthiest countries.

To support our call on all countries to conduct aggressive case-finding and testing, we’re also working urgently to massively increase the production and capacity for testing around the world.

One of the most important areas of international cooperation is research and development.

A vaccine is still at least 12 to 18 months away.

In the meantime, we recognize that there is an urgent need for therapeutics to treat patients and save lives.

Today we are delighted to announce that in Norway and Spain, the first patients will shortly be enrolled in the Solidarity Trial, which will compare the safety and effectiveness of four different drugs or drug combinations against COVID-19.

This is a historic trial which will dramatically cut the time needed to generate robust evidence about what drugs work.

More than 45 countries are contributing to the trial, and more have expressed interest. The more countries who join the trial, the faster we will have results.

In the meantime, we call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19.

The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn't work in humans or were actually harmful.

During the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial.

We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.

We also need to ensure that using unproven drugs does not create a shortage of those medicines to treat diseases for which they have proven effective.

As the pandemic evolves and more countries are affected, we are learning more and more lessons about what works and what doesn't.

WHO is continuing to support all countries in the response.

We’ve published more than 40 guidance documents on our website, providing detailed, evidence-based recommendations for governments, hospitals, health workers, members of the public and more.

More than 1 million health workers have been trained through our courses on OpenWHo_Org. We will continue to train more.

We’re also delighted to report that the COVID-19 Solidarity Fund has now received donations of more than US$ 108 million in just two weeks, from 203,000 individuals and organizations.

Thank you to each and every one of you.

The English version of our WhatsApp Health Alert now has more than 12 million users globally, and the Arabic, French and Spanish versions were launched today. More languages will be added, including Bangla, Chinese, Hindi, Kurdish, Portuguese, Russian, Somali, Urdu, Swahili and more.

I’ve said before that crises like this bring out the best and worst in humanity.

We have recently seen an increase in scams, cyberattacks and impersonation using WHO, my name and COVID-19.

I am very grateful to those working in various national organizations providing critical cybersecurity intelligence to the WHO Cybersecurity team.

Thank you for your efforts to work with us to protect the health systems, health workers and members of the general public who rely on our information systems and digital tools. Special thanks to Microsoft for assisting on this.

I’d like to end with something Singapore’s Minister of Health, Gan Kim Yong, said during today’s briefing.

We are only at the beginning of this fight.

We need to stay calm, stay united and work together.

I thank you.”

Full video of the above Friday Briefing which includes Q & A:
Press briefings
thank you soooooo much. truly.
Wow, sad it does make sense that Adult/retirement Communities are hit hard especially with the cruising but the age group is not a good mix. A lot of homeless in FL too. I lived in Miami for 10 yrs and although I miss the sun and outdoor cafes year round etc I am glad I am riding this out in the woods of VA Fortunately my wife can work from home but she still has to go on a big marine base once a week so.....I wish there was something I can do to help the effort, staying home is the best I can do for the moment unless anyone has any ideas. (I don't sew)
i predict devastating results down here in FL. DeSantis is talking to Washington rather than the pulse of the State. And vice versa. Threats of total quarantine to NY and NJ...and the only governor talked to was DeSantis.
 
FLORIDA

"This picture is from 3pm today.
You can see exactly where Duval County ends and St. John’s County begins.
All beaches in Duval are closed, while St. John’s only blocked parking at the beach.
Gov. DeSantis needs to order a state-wide closure of all Florida beaches." Travis Akers on Twitter
Travis Akers on Twitter

Media inquiries:
Photo credit: Clay Archer, Jacksonville Beach resident
Picture captured from his balcony with a 100-400GM with 1.6 extender.
Media has permission to use the photo. He asks that if any outlets use the image to please credit him.
Travis Akers on Twitter

I pray for Florida. Geez Louise!!
 
BREAKING: New York City reports 1,607 new cases and 155 new deaths in evening update, raising state total to 53,925 cases and 883 dead Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

BNO Newsroom on Twitter
NYC is about half of all US cases and deaths. I want to consider the tri-state area statistics segregated from the rest of the country.

Some population densities persons per square mile per Wikipedia:

Manhattan, New York City, NY 69,467
all 5 boroughs, New York City, NY 27,751
Chicago, IL 11,841
City of Los Angeles, CA 8,092
County of Los Angeles, CA 2,100
Oklahoma City, OK 1,070
State of Oklahoma, OK 55

The population density in and around New York City is unique and spreads to NJ and CT.
The map hasn't changed showing that NYC concentration of cases far outstripping anywhere else:
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
 
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