Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #39

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If gaps in health care resources aren’t filled, more than 80,000 Americans will die over the next four months due to the coronavirus pandemic, epidemiologists at the University of Washington predict.

The grim forecast — based on an analysis of statistics from the World Health Organization, as well as from national and local governments and hospitals — is laid out today in a research paper that’s being submitted to the MedRxiv preprint server but hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed.

Researchers at the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation say their forecast takes current policies on social distancing into account. The problem is that shortages of hospital beds and medical supplies are projected to boost the death toll nevertheless.

Epidemiologists predict 80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July – GeekWire
 
Seenit said:
Not sure the added stress and nicotine cravings would help the situation.
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Some smokers are okay with cold turkey (so if you're one of those, and thinking about it - go for it). And people who smoke only a couple of cigarettes per day - it's time to go ahead and quit.

Nicotine patches still available online, but...having watched many relatives go cold turkey after getting sick (not from CV19, from flu or pneumonia) I'm rooting for all of the quitters and will tolerate a bit of crankiness. Most need some other outdoor habit to occupy them, IME (my dad started picking the gravel out of his lawn and tossing it back into the gravel area, ha).
 
Reasonable & Just said:
Yes. I think it's in order now, and would do it myself if I could do it in a way that doesn't endanger others. I'm still haunted by the GA mammogram technician, Dedra Wilkes, whose 5-year old son was found alive with her body after about 16 hours.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think you're right. My neighbor had been dead all day when I found her come to think of it. Jmo
 
What a crafty thing for your father to do, lol.
I hope a lot of smokers quit now, their money can be used for food or other necessities. Moo
10ofRods said:
Some smokers are okay with cold turkey (so if you're one of those, and thinking about it - go for it). And people who smoke only a couple of cigarettes per day - it's time to go ahead and quit.

Nicotine patches still available online, but...having watched many relatives go cold turkey after getting sick (not from CV19, from flu or pneumonia) I'm rooting for all of the quitters and will tolerate a bit of crankiness. Most need some other outdoor habit to occupy them, IME (my dad started picking the gravel out of his lawn and tossing it back into the gravel area, ha).
Click to expand...
 
Henry2326 said:
If gaps in health care resources aren’t filled, more than 80,000 Americans will die over the next four months due to the coronavirus pandemic, epidemiologists at the University of Washington predict.

The grim forecast — based on an analysis of statistics from the World Health Organization, as well as from national and local governments and hospitals — is laid out today in a research paper that’s being submitted to the MedRxiv preprint server but hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed.

Researchers at the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation say their forecast takes current policies on social distancing into account. The problem is that shortages of hospital beds and medical supplies are projected to boost the death toll nevertheless.

Epidemiologists predict 80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July – GeekWire
Click to expand...

Yes, because people with all the other diseases will still need care and will not get it as readily. Or, if they go in hospital for something unrelated, they'll end up with CV19 (possibly transmitted by their own nurse, who is changing masks only occasionally).

The mask problem alone is going to up mortality rates from other diseases of the elderly.

I'm curious about the viral loads in the hospital rooms where the baby and younger people are dying.
 
I run solo in the mornings to avoid contact with others. No problems, but I did look out my window and saw about 20 or 30 people exercising together in our community park area. Nowhere close to 6 feet apart and sweating all over each other with the kids playing in and around them all.

WTH don't people understand about social distancing??!! :mad:
 
margarita25 said:
Gah I’m trying to contain my blood pressure as it is without reading that article LOL.

Marking ;)
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I read the article but it makes no sense in the context of what has happened and just seems to be political jabbing. There is no way the American government can force law-abiding citizens to take a medical test they don't want to take. The number of available tests has never been the problem. The problem is with the number of health workers needed to administer the tests and analyze the tests. A guy who was traveling via jet developed symptoms after he landed in Omaha. The county health director was asked if everybody on the plane was going to be contacted and she said no, only those seated in the range of two rows in front and two rows in back of the patient would be notified. She said transmission beyond that range would be highly unlikely.

She made it very clear the problem with Covid-19 is that people are asymptomatic yet they are contagious and spreading the disease. The added aspect that traveling was involved made the exposure field far more vast which is why health officials asked only those with symptoms or who thought they had been exposed take the test. But they still can't force someone who meets that definition into taking the test.

JMO
 
Henry2326 said:
If gaps in health care resources aren’t filled, more than 80,000 Americans will die over the next four months due to the coronavirus pandemic, epidemiologists at the University of Washington predict.

The grim forecast — based on an analysis of statistics from the World Health Organization, as well as from national and local governments and hospitals — is laid out today in a research paper that’s being submitted to the MedRxiv preprint server but hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed.

Researchers at the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation say their forecast takes current policies on social distancing into account. The problem is that shortages of hospital beds and medical supplies are projected to boost the death toll nevertheless.

Epidemiologists predict 80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July – GeekWire
Click to expand...

Hasn't even been peer reviewed and based on what if's.

It was put out there in MSM by the "prediction police experts" that over half the country up to 80% will get the virus.

Fear mongering.
 
SCOTT GOTTLIEB

READ: This week tragic reality on ground will overtake events. There are multiple epicenters of U.S. spread. We'll grapple with national epidemic. April will be hard. We'll get through it. Focus must be on slowing spread nationally, support healthcare system, build back in May. Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter
Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter

We can end the national epidemic with tough measures in April, and gradually restart our activity in May and June. As we do, we must focus on getting technology and tools to make sure we can end the current spread more quickly, save lives, and keep it from ever happening again.

That means
1. Massive surveillance system and point of care tests
2. Therapeutics to prevent infection or treat those sick or exposed
3. Eventually a vaccine.
Look to therapeutic antibodies as obtainable, near term promise. Technology will turn #Coronavirus into manageable threat.

Take it slow. Spend time with family. Protect the vulnerable. The CARES Act will help offset some the huge economic burdens. It's a very hard time. We'll get through it. It'll end. We must end it decisively and put in place tools and technology to make sure this doesn't return.
 

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