Disconnecting JAG-things that point to another killer

[carbuff]

The Pala Indian Reservation consists of 12,000 acres. Leticia's remains were found miles South of where Amber's remains were found.

If that's true, then it's less significant. While the forensics teams were on the site, one of the TV stations said Leticia was found just on the other side of the road -- I assume he meant the main road, not the side road, but still within a mile.

I think your point about stranger abduction is a good one.

 

[marieblasdell]

Do we know if she was in a shallow grave? I didn't think any of that had been confirmed by LE.

Burying is either to cover up or remorse, so it happens in both types of cases. (And strangers can feel remorse after as well)

Right. I shouldn't have said anything about a grave, since that wasn't my point. Here's what my question was. Let's consider abductions:

Abductions by family members: what percentage end in death for the abductee?

Abductions by acquaintences: what percentage end in death for the abductee?

Abductions by strangers: what percentage end in death for the abductee?

My hunch, though it's not backed up by statistics, is that the last group of abductions has the highest death rate. Does anyone have actual statistics to verify or disprove this?

 

[sarx]

The latter two certainly have the highest death rates. There are some rough figures out there, but these stats are hard because so many children are never found and then there is the issue of linking them to a murderer, as well as still living but sold, etc. A lot of people feel there is no real good way to quantify because of all the variables.

Then there comes the question of where does the boyfriend of the mother fit in (in this instance anyway). Depending on how long, etc, he might better fit under the second category.

 

[Ghostwheel]

So in keeping with the possibilities of the mother's boyfriend, what if other peoples sightings helped make LE decide he was not a viable suspect? If you take away those other sightings, barring other things which could exonerate him (although I don't know what that would be), he then becomes a suspect again, would he not?

 

[SoCalSleuth]

So in keeping with the possibilities of the mother's boyfriend, what if other peoples sightings helped make LE decide he was not a viable suspect? If you take away those other sightings, barring other things which could exonerate him (although I don't know what that would be), he then becomes a suspect again, would he not?

I think that LE always thought Amber was a runaway. About 9 months or more after Amber disappeared LE classified her as "missing child not an abduction or runaway"--never understood what that meant. Once the parents and boyfriends passed lie detector tests--which happened immediately--they never took another look. Does anyone know how long they were a couple and if they are still together?

 

[southern_scout]

This is going off on a total tangent, but the wolf-thing and the reservation made me think of Twilight. If she was crazy about that series/Jacob, could she have possibly agreed to meet someone she met online outside school to go to the reservation? (the kids in the book like to go to LaPush beach, which is also on a "reservation"). Maybe they even made it that far, before she met with foul play? Might be a way someone would have lured her into a car, if she had some "real life Jacob" teenage fantasy thing.

 

[jjenny]

This is going off on a total tangent, but the wolf-thing and the reservation made me think of Twilight. If she was crazy about that series/Jacob, could she have possibly agreed to meet someone she met online outside school to go to the reservation? (the kids in the book like to go to LaPush beach, which is also on a "reservation"). Maybe they even made it that far, before she met with foul play? Might be a way someone would have lured her into a car, if she had some "real life Jacob" teenage fantasy thing.

I presume police didn't find anything on her computer to suggest she arranged to meet someone-otherwise they could have identified a suspect/found her body long before this.
Certainly one would think something would have been reported if she did arrange to meet someone online. Maybe she was chatting with people on line but that had nothing to do with her death.

 

[sarx]

We don't know what they found on the computers or on her phone or land line, there are all kinds of ways that she could have been in contact with someone. Not saying that she was, but it is certainly a possibility.

 

[SoCalSleuth]

This is going off on a total tangent, but the wolf-thing and the reservation made me think of Twilight. If she was crazy about that series/Jacob, could she have possibly agreed to meet someone she met online outside school to go to the reservation? (the kids in the book like to go to LaPush beach, which is also on a "reservation"). Maybe they even made it that far, before she met with foul play? Might be a way someone would have lured her into a car, if she had some "real life Jacob" teenage fantasy thing.

Her screen name "Wolfintheend" is a reference to the Twilight series--it means she wants Bella to choose the Wolf (the Native Ameican) at the end of the series. We have no idea if she agreed to meet a boy or girl on the reservation or anywhere for that matter. Could be LE checked it out and he/she said "She never showed up" and that was that--no other evidence of anything. Bottom line is--we know squat other than the location of the remains. I'm still curious that no one has any info on the mom's boyfriend. If someone knows his name and could pm me with it I'll investigate further.

 

[jjenny]

Her screen name "Wolfintheend" is a reference to the Twilight series--it means she wants Bella to choose the Wolf (the Native Ameican) at the end of the series. We have no idea if she agreed to meet a boy or girl on the reservation or anywhere for that matter. Could be LE checked it out and he/she said "She never showed up" and that was that--no other evidence of anything. Bottom line is--we know squat other than the location of the remains. I'm still curious that no one has any info on the mom's boyfriend. If someone knows his name and could pm me with it I'll investigate further.

If she were going to meet someone on a researvation one would think we would know about it even if that person said Amber never showed up.
The published reports insist she was going to school because she had a check for the lamb, and valentine presents. She also apparently never missed school, or at least that's what been published, she had perfect attendance. Of course there is somebody saying they saw her with a boy-if that's accurate then this boy doesn't fit JAG's description. Could she have met up with a boy who somehow enticed her to go to the reservation?

 

[sarx]

It is entirely possible for someone to set up a meet up without anyone ever knowing or finding out about it.
It's also possible that she took the check and the valentine's to keep everything looking like normal. She certainly would not not say "oh, I don't need that check today, I'm ditching school."
She was a sweet girl, but sweet girls can do really stupid things. I was once that 14 yr old girl who got great grades, rode my horse every day and never missed school. Then I did some really stupid things, luckily I lived to tell about it. I look back all the time though and realize just how close I was to being one of these stories, more than once.

 

[concentric]

This is going off on a total tangent, but the wolf-thing and the reservation made me think of Twilight. If she was crazy about that series/Jacob, could she have possibly agreed to meet someone she met online outside school to go to the reservation? (the kids in the book like to go to LaPush beach, which is also on a "reservation"). Maybe they even made it that far, before she met with foul play? Might be a way someone would have lured her into a car, if she had some "real life Jacob" teenage fantasy thing.

--------------------------
Asked about this before in the thread about the young man walking with her:

03-09-2010, 09:58 AM
concentric

I'm really going to ask something far-fetched:

Thinking about Amber's love of animals again. It has been said in many articles that she loved wolves. Her screen name includes the word wolves or wolf. It has also been said that she started talking to boys online a few weeks prior to her disappearance. A logical point of conversation for a predator to use would be to ask her why she has her screen name, etc.
Taking it even further down this path. Her body was found near an Indian Reservation. Some Native American tribes consider the wolf as a spirit guide or sacred animal. Could this person have lured her to the Reservation area by wanting to show her wolves?

 

[sarx]

Concentric,
I doubt it, if she truly knew her wolves, as it seemed she did, she would know there are none in California. I suppose he could have convinced her he had a Wolf cross, there are some breeders down that way.

 

[jjenny]

Concentric,
I doubt it, if she truly knew her wolves, as it seemed she did, she would know there are none in California. I suppose he could have convinced her he had a Wolf cross, there are some breeders down that way.

Well even if she knew there were no wovles in Ca, what if this person convinced her there were wovles on a reservation? It is easy to convince someone of something if that someone wants to believe it.

 

[sarx]

anything is a possibility.

 

[jjenny]

anything is a possibility.

We really need to know where that tip (lead) came from.

 

[concentric]

Brings us back to the question of how the abduction happened. Was she lured?

 

[Ghostwheel]

Concentric,
I doubt it, if she truly knew her wolves, as it seemed she did, she would know there are none in California. I suppose he could have convinced her he had a Wolf cross, there are some breeders down that way.

There are , in fact, some wolves in California, although they are wolf sanctuaries. Julian has the California Wolf Center. Not Pala, but still in the area.

And a 14 year old probably wouldn't know that there were no wild wolves around.

JMO, I believe there are a few wild wolves still around, being as how a friend of mine ended up with some Husky/wolf mix pups when her dog got out, but I suppose the wolf could have been a private pet somewhere up the mountain.

 

[Ghostwheel]

Here's the problem, without information, we can come up with all kinds of ways someone else MIGHT have done this, but we cannot make any truly educated guesses. On any given day, a person could grab someone and speed off with them, a child could voluntarily go with someone they considered a friend, a parent could kill a child and hide the body (or not), a kid could run away by themselves, or with a friend. But with only a path she walked (I have discovered she walked the street route as far as her parents and grandmother knew), some sightings of someone who looked like her walking in the drizzle with a black hoodie on (how can you recognize that, unless there is a distinguishing design on the hoodie or the pants she was wearing), and the information that she did not arrive at school on a day when she had valentines for her friends and was supposed to buy a lamb she was excited about, I see no way to connect her with anyone, except the last person to see her face to face.

I DON'T see this as a standard runaway, unless there is something else we don't know (which is a lot).

 

[jjenny]

Here's the problem, without information, we can come up with all kinds of ways someone else MIGHT have done this, but we cannot make any truly educated guesses. On any given day, a person could grab someone and speed off with them, a child could voluntarily go with someone they considered a friend, a parent could kill a child and hide the body (or not), a kid could run away by themselves, or with a friend. But with only a path she walked (I have discovered she walked the street route as far as her parents and grandmother knew), some sightings of someone who looked like her walking in the drizzle with a black hoodie on (how can you recognize that, unless there is a distinguishing design on the hoodie or the pants she was wearing), and the information that she did not arrive at school on a day when she had valentines for her friends and was supposed to buy a lamb she was excited about, I see no way to connect her with anyone, except the last person to see her face to face.

I DON'T see this as a standard runaway, unless there is something else we don't know (which is a lot).

I don't think anyone believes she was planning to run away. But possibly somebody could have convinced her to go look at wolves, etc, for that day instead of going to school. But of course with us not knowing what evidence police has or doesn't have, and where the tip came from, we can only guess.