FL FL - Austin Stephanos & Perry Cohen, both 14, Jupiter, 24 July 2015 - #1

[Hiandmighty]

On both of their Instagram accounts there is not one image of them wearing a life jacket out on a boat. [emoji17][emoji53]

Dh and I both agree they probably didnt have life jackets on. You are supposed to also have a type IV flotation device unattached that will hopefully float clear of debris and if you didnt have a life jacket on, you could grab on to it. But those can be easily a pain because they can't be attached to anything so they can fly and flap around. Im guessing they didnt have one of those either (though coast guard does look for it during spot inspections).

dh theorizes they were taking water on because of the waves which drowned out the engine. So they lost control of the boat. They may have tried to fix the engine which is why the cover was off. In the meantime, the boat capsized and threw them out of the boat. Head injuries are a possibility at this point.

They didn't necessarily suffer; if they are deceased, it could have happened rather quickly.

 

[vega]

Without a vest? Not very good. With a vest, slightly higher perhaps- depending on how quickly you get away from the boat (which could easily hit you in the head or any other number of what ifs)

I'm not 100% sure on how long the storm lasted, but in the summer they roll in fast, and they roll out fast. I'd venture to guess maybe an hour at the most, but it was intense.


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I captured these time lapse weather radar snapshot's of the Squall Line that hit Jupiter Inlet Friday afternoon. I confirmed the squall line hit several land based weather stations, including Juno Pier, at 1:30PM local time (Eastern Time). The local time of the radar images below is on the upper right hand corner.

What we see here is at 11am , when they were fueling up their boat, the sky was very clear. Two hours later at 1 PM, the sky overhead and west of Palm Beach County was still clear, with a slow moving area of heavy rain moving E across St. Lucie County (a good distance away to the north). At 1 PM , a new squall line/gust front was just starting to form over the East edge of Lake Okeechobee, well to their west. In the 30 minutes between 1 PM and 1:30 PM this new squall line to the west rapidly intensified east of Lake Okeechobee and surged rapidly offshore. Anyone offshore Jupiter Inlet had virtually no advance warning of the threat posed by this newly forming squall line to the west, as confirmed by several reports of fishermen literally running to shore for their lives to reach safe harbor. This rapid storm development phenomenon is not uncommon for this specific area, it is due to the influence of Lake Okeechobee, combined in this case with the outflow boundary coming south down the coast from Martin County. The meteorological conditions mid-day Friday were ideal for what quickly turned into a worst case scenario.

I will add one more comment here, this is 100% just my personal opinion based on all the information we have to work with. I feel the boys recognized the weather threat, but experienced a mechanical failure as evidenced by the engine cover being off when the boat was discovered by searchers. I think they tried to start the motor and run for safety, and the engine failed to start. My guess is, the battery failed, and the engine would not start. Without power, the boat was quickly turned sideways and flipped over in the intense sea/weather conditions in the gust front that hit them. I believe if the boat was under full power, it would be able to motor through the worst of that weather event. Without a running motor, the boat was at the mercy of the wind and seas. Again this is just my personal opinion.

 

[persimmon]

bbm

So if we believe that it is very likely that both of them did not wear a life vest it would be almost impossible that they even survived beyond Friday afternoon.

Without a vest there's no chance for sirvival in those conditions. The energy it would take to stay afloat would be too great. Even the water temperature might pose a threat after so many days...despite being relatively warm. It's a heartbreaking story...they really seem like great boys.

 

[Hiandmighty]

bay boats don't have a lot of freeboard (the side of the boat from the water line to the rail). They would have been swamped easily given the situation. Taking on water would have cut the engine (possibilty the battery but usually the engine will kill first. The engine sucked water in the intake which would kill the engine. Pretty much screwed at that point anyway. But if the battery was underwater then no chance of starting engine again).

With loss of power to engine, they lost control of the boat. No engine= no steering. No steering= capsize.


Rule #1: stay with the boat. That they werent found with the boat to me is a bad sign for their safety.

 

[Hatfield]

They could have possibly put them on if they noticed it was getting hairy and put them on real quick, no way to know.


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This is my hope too. That they knew the weather was getting real bad and hopefully they put on their life jackets.

With the motor cover off, its likely they were in the middle of the storm trying to restart the engine so there is a chance they put on their life jackets.

But darn it, we are practically out of time. Its been too long now. Im hoping beyond hope at this point.

 

[persimmon]

This is my hope too. That they knew the weather was getting real bad and hopefully they put on their life jackets.

With the motor cover off, its likely they were in the middle of the storm trying to restart the engine so there is a chance they put on their life jackets.

But darn it, we are practically out of time. Its been too long now. Im hoping beyond hope at this point.

Tragic. The engine cover was likely removed because they struggled to restart it. At that point, their age is irrelevent really because anybody would have been doomed to the same fate.

I just compare them to lots of other teens whose activities are far more questionable and I think its such a shame that two good kids met with such a horrific tragedy. People let their kids shoot guns, ride dirtbikes, and play football....and all of these can prove fatal. Nobody is to blame. Good kids being active and wholsesome in my eyes. Tragic

 

[Hatfield]

bay boats don't have a lot of freeboard (the side of the boat from the water line to the rail). They would have been swamped easily given the situation. Taking on water would have cut the engine (possibilty the battery but usually the engine will kill first. The engine sucked water in the intake which would kill the engine. Pretty much screwed at that point anyway. But if the battery was underwater then no chance of starting engine again).

With loss of power to engine, they lost control of the boat. No engine= no steering. No steering= capsize.


Rule #1: stay with the boat. That they werent found with the boat to me is a bad sign for their safety.

I agree and I think they lost power most likely because the high waves were going over or into the engine which stalled it.

Once they could not restart the engine then they could not point the front of the boat into the waves which is about the only way they could have cut through the large waves.

Which means like you said their boat likely turned sideways and they got broadsided by the large waves which flipped it.

Ive been trying to use this as a learning experience and wondering what I could have done if I knew I was going to flip.
Since it would be almost impossible to hang onto that boat in those seas I am wondering if I would be better off to tie myself with a long line to the boat. That way I could stay clear of the thrashing boat and when the weather calms, I could pull myself back to the boat.

Does that sound like the right thing to do if someone knows they are likely to flip in seas like that?

 

[mrsu]

Not that it matters but it appears that Perry is his mother's only child. There are 2 other girls that are step-children. I can't imagine.

 

[mrsu]

I agree and I think they lost power most likely because the high waves were going over or into the engine which stalled it.

Once they could not restart the engine then they could not point the front of the boat into the waves which is about the only way they could have cut through the large waves.

Which means like you said their boat likely turned sideways and they got broadsided by the large waves which flipped it.

Ive been trying to use this as a learning experience and wondering what I could have done if I knew I was going to flip.
Since it would be almost impossible to hang onto that boat in those seas I am wondering if I would be better off to tie myself with a long line to the boat. That way I could stay clear of the thrashing boat and when the weather calms, I could pull myself back to the boat.

Does that sound like the right thing to do if someone knows they are likely to flip in seas like that?

In the video I saw of the capsized boat, not much was above water. Even on the day it was found when waves were calmer water was still going up and over the boat. Would have been incredibly hard for them to stay on top of or hold on to IMO.

 

[Sulamith]

Not that it matters but it appears that Perry is his mother's only child. There are 2 other girls that are step-children. I can't imagine.

You are right. It does not matter.

 

[WhiskeyBent]

This is not their boat, but it has the same type of transom (stern/rear end) It has an open transom.

I think they were swamped from the back and that the cowling (engine cover) came off on its own somewhere between capsizing and the boat being found. I don't recall what the horsepower of the motor was but a cowling typically weighs more than it appears to, and they have ventilation holes. It more than likely sank, in my opinion.

Just bs speculation, but something I've been considering for awhile...

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[mrsu]

Can someone post a link to a cowling similar to the one missing?? I don't get what it is?

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

I will add one more comment here, this is 100% just my personal opinion based on all the information we have to work with. I feel the boys recognized the weather threat, but experienced a mechanical failure as evidenced by the engine cover being off when the boat was discovered by searchers. I think they tried to start the motor and run for safety, and the engine failed to start. My guess is, the battery failed, and the engine would not start. Without power, the boat was quickly turned sideways and flipped over in the intense sea/weather conditions in the gust front that hit them. I believe if the boat was under full power, it would be able to motor through the worst of that weather event. Without a running motor, the boat was at the mercy of the wind and seas. Again this is just my personal opinion.

RSBM

I'm right there with you. Most people I know would never go offshore or in deep water without twin engines, some have three and four engines. fwiw

 

[Hatfield]

This is not their boat, but it has the same type of transom (stern/rear end) It has an open transom.

I think they were swamped from the back and that the cowling (engine cover) came off on its own somewhere between capsizing and the boat being found. I don't recall what the horsepower of the motor was but a cowling typically weighs more than it appears to, and they have ventilation holes. It more than likely sank, in my opinion.

Just bs speculation, but something I've been considering for awhile...

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Thanks for the pic. This is a great picture of what has been discussed about an "Open Transom".

I had mentioned before that I just have a small john boat so I know very little about larger boats, although a lot of the boat safety rules and general boating tips are similar to what I have learned.

This is an important point about the "Open Transom". For people unfamiliar with what that means. It is the back area where the motor is mounted to the transom. Notice there is a cutout area and it is just a small thin white metal that the motor is mounted too and notice the small piece of wood in front.

The "open transom" boat is probably the worst type of boat to have in ocean seas because obviously the water of the sea can come right up through that area and into the boat itself.

It almost doesnt seem logical to even make boats like this but they do surprisingly well in calm water and with hull pumps and the way the back end is usually tilted toward the back any water that gets in usually washes right back out the back.

But in high seas, this is really bad type of boat to have. Especially if the boat gets turned in wrong direction with no power. A large wave will come right up through that transom area and flood the boat or knock someone overboard.

 

[WhiskeyBent]

Can someone post a link to a cowling similar to the one missing?? I don't get what it is?

In the picture I posted of the open transom, the cowling is the gray shell around the top of the motor, says 225 on it. That whole thing lifts off to access the motor beneath it.

Here is a cowling separate from the motor-

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[WhiskeyBent]

Duplicate post! Oops!


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[WhiskeyBent]

Thanks for the pic. This is a great picture of what has been discussed about an "Open Transom".

I had mentioned before that I just have a small john boat so I know very little about larger boats, although a lot of the boat safety rules and general boating tips are similar to what I have learned.

This is an important point about the "Open Transom". For people unfamiliar with what that means. It is the back area where the motor is mounted to the transom. Notice there is a cutout area and it is just a small thin white metal that the motor is mounted too and notice the small piece of wood in front.

The "open transom" boat is probably the worst type of boat to have in ocean seas because obviously the water of the sea can come right up through that area and into the boat itself.

It almost doesnt seem logical to even make boats like this but they do surprisingly well in calm water and with hull pumps and the way the back end is usually tilted toward the back any water that gets in usually washes right back out the back.

But in high seas, this is really bad type of boat to have. Especially if the boat gets turned in wrong direction with no power. A large wave will come right up through that transom area and flood the boat or knock someone overboard.

Another issue w open transoms is that you have to be careful about how quickly you slow down. All the water that the propeller is moving has to go somewhere when you slow down, and it will come right back up through that "hole" and into the boat.

So... If you're in an open transom in rough seas, and you're hauling butt (perhaps towards shore...?) and you suddenly stop/slow down/cut the throttle/lose power- guess where that water goes? In the boat.


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[Elainera]

I agree and I think they lost power most likely because the high waves were going over or into the engine which stalled it.

Once they could not restart the engine then they could not point the front of the boat into the waves which is about the only way they could have cut through the large waves.

Which means like you said their boat likely turned sideways and they got broadsided by the large waves which flipped it.

Ive been trying to use this as a learning experience and wondering what I could have done if I knew I was going to flip.
Since it would be almost impossible to hang onto that boat in those seas I am wondering if I would be better off to tie myself with a long line to the boat. That way I could stay clear of the thrashing boat and when the weather calms, I could pull myself back to the boat.

Does that sound like the right thing to do if someone knows they are likely to flip in seas like that?

I would be scared to be pulled down if the boat sinks. Or that the rope gets snagged somewhere and pulls me down.

 

[Hatfield]

Someone else mentioned we can use this sad incident as a learning situation and I firmly believe that is true. I have been making mental notes of what I would do differently if ever in a similar situation.

There is 1 learning item that I would like to mention that may help adults if I can explain it properly.

One key thing that I think us adults can take away from this is that children and young teens will do things against the rules sometimes with our larger items like our boats, our cars, etc. And the point is that we need to be very careful with the decisions us adults make well before any rules are broken and any potential accidents happen.

Like with this boat, the adults had a good rule to never go out to the deep water, however, they failed to take into account that kids typically will break rules. We dont know if the adults did not buy an emergency locator device for that boat because they did not think the kids would ever go to the deep water, but it could have been one of the reasons.

The point is that it doesn't matter whether the rules were in place or not. If we own a boat that is near high seas, then we probably should buy an emergency locator device for the boat and teach the children how to use it. Still have the rules and the expectations to never go to the deep water but also have this critical safety device available beforehand and have every person trained to use it.

We were all children and teens once ourselves, so we should never kid ourselves or be naive about the types of things kids will do or the trouble they may get into. No matter how well behaved they are.

I saw something on TV awhile back that said something like...."Show me a kid who never gets in any trouble and Ill show you a kid who just hasn't got caught yet".

Anyway, there is a learning point here somewhere. LOL
I am not sure I explained it good enough what I was trying to say
I think the point is to be as prepared as possible beforehand and never assume anything.

A lot of my safety gear when I go hunting I never have used. But I still have it and still take it with me each and every time.
I have made my own emergency kit when hunting that I take in my backpack and some of the things my wife laughs at me about. I just smile and pack it each time. Things like bandages, 2 flashlights, GPS device even when going to a place I dont expect to get lost in, lighter, snake bite kit, duct tape, a whistle, etc. etc.

I even laugh at some of the items myself when I pack them. But I tell you what. It feels good to have them. I know I have certain things if ever needed or if someone I am with ends up needing them.

Sorry such a long post.

 

[katydid23]

Maybe it is time to make a regulation that boats need to have a working GPS to go out to open sea? Just a thought.