FL/GA/SC/NC - Hurricane Idalia, Aug 2023

[Friday Fan]

Latest satellite still from TD - 10. It was moving SW for bit during the middle of the night. Now it's moving E at 2 mph. Pressure is 1001 mb. It's really blobbing around and pulling in tons of moisture. I don't know what it's going to do when it enters the Gulf. (Will the convection area continue to increase in size or will the storm become more compact as it gains strength?)

I believe the maximum wind has increased in the closest to landfall forecast: 72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 90 MPH

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Forecast Discussion

Although the winds aren't particularly strong in the forecast, I'm afraid this is going to be dangerous storm due to it's physical size with storm surge and flooding extending out far from it's center of circulation. I hope those in storm surge risk areas of FL Gulf Coast have evac plans.

IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits

Western Atlantic IR Satellite Loop

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[Lexiintoronto]

Franklin strengthens in the Atlantic, now the second hurricane of 2023 season

Franklin has strengthened into a hurricane in the western Atlantic and is now the second hurricane of the 2023 hurricane season.

keprtv.com

Hurricane Franklin has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts, a central pressure of 989 mb, and is moving to the north-northwest near 7 mph.

Although the hurricane is forecast to pass well offshore the East Coast of the United States, Franklin is capable of producing deadly rip currents and waves this weekend into early next week along portions of the East Coast.

Hurricane Franklin Bringing High Surf, Rip Currents Up The US East Coast; Tropical Storm Warning For Bermuda

It's not a U.S. danger, but one indirect impact is important if you're headed to the beach.

www.wunderground.com

It can still go off-course, but right now I can’t tell you how happy I am that it doesn’t look like it’s going to hit us directly here in Nova Scotia or anywhere else. Huge sigh of relief. The ground is too saturated and everything is in full leaf. It would have meant disaster.

TD 10 is moving at 1 mph! It's not moving and that's not good. Notice the forecast points for 7 pm Sat, 1 pm Sunday, and 1 am Monday. No movement. What on earth? Ugh........

I’m worried for those of you in Ten’s path, I hope it loses power.

From Canadian sources:

Hurricane Track - Environment Canada

Tropical cyclone information track map showing storms currently tracked by the Canadian Hurricane Centre

weather.gc.ca

 

[TexLil]

TD-10 is now TS Idalia. Everyone stay safe.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1695828996678991900

 

[PayrollNerd]

Almost the same exact track of Michael back in 2018. I hope Idalia isn't as strong

That is exactly what I was thinking. Here's a side by side comparison. One of the reasons Hurricane Michael 2018 was so destructive, is the topography. That area is so flat, there is literally nothing to stop a storm. It didn't slow down until it got to the higher elevations and mountains in GA.

 

[PayrollNerd]

https://flhurricane.com/?fbclid=IwAR2xeRIgP8obZRZ0e1NU4ImLnoiNb_Qn1E73v5JcqcNhjfU4hLxX7kxSpHI

5PM EDT 27 August 2023 Update
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and for the Dry Tortugas.



It's the water, not the wind. The big bend area of FL is more rural and low, swampy, lots of natural parks, etc. I hope people learned from Hurr Ian last year, get out before you can't.

 

[HmmMysterious]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1695944488068186158

 

[Friday Fan]

Idalia's cloud tops in the center of circulation have been -80 and -90 C. This thing is pumping energy. Normally clear skies have the same temp as air or warmer. Light clouds are around 32 F. Rain is -30-50. Mesoscale convection, including tornados are around -60. (Sometimes hail will have pockets below -60, but it's not very common)

I think it will be hurricane tomorrow...MOO...

 

[HmmMysterious]

Omg Idalia is rapidly intensifying and now has winds of 60 mph and a pressure of 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Idalia Forecast Discussion

And the discussion is now predicting a 110 mph hurricane at landfall in Florida

 

[HmmMysterious]

 

[Lexiintoronto]

“Hurricane Watch Issued for Florida Gulf Coast for Tropical Storm Idalia​

The state was mobilizing resources ahead of the storm, which could be a Category 2 hurricane with winds of up to 100 miles per hour when it reaches western Florida, officials said.​

Aug. 27, 2023, 7:41 p.m. ET
[…]
The Florida Division of Emergency Management told residents to keep their gas tanks at least halfway full in case emergency evacuation orders were issued.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida signed an executive order on Saturday declaring a state of emergency in 33 counties in preparation for the storm.
“If you are in the path of this storm, you should expect power outages, so please prepare for that,” he said on Sunday. “If you are power-dependent — particularly people who are elderly or who have medical needs — please plan on going to a shelter.”
The state mobilized 1,100 members of the National Guard, which has 2,400 high-water vehicles and 12 aircraft ready for rescue efforts. Electric companies will have workers on standby starting on Monday.
The Hurricane Center noted in an advisory on Sunday that from Tuesday into Wednesday, parts of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia could get up to six inches of rain, with higher isolated totals of 10 inches.
Heavy rainfall was also expected to spread into portions of the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday, the center said.
“Rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba,” the center said. “Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday.””

Hurricane Watch Issued for Florida Gulf Coast for Tropical Storm Idalia

The state was mobilizing resources ahead of the storm, which could be a Category 2 hurricane with winds of up to 100 miles per hour when it reaches western Florida, officials said.

www.nytimes.com

 

[PayrollNerd]

Sarasota update:
The schools are closing Tue & Wed so they can be used as shelters. There is a mandatory Level A evacuation here. That usually means the beach and bay side, Long Boat Key, Siesta Key, etc.

My youngest is camping in NC and will have to delay her drive home until Thu. My friends in Lawrenceville, GA will host her on Tue night & Wed night while the storm passes.

My oldest is in Panama City Beach and has Covid so evacuating is tricky. She could get a hotel if necessary. But, that area is on the edge of the cone, kinda like I am here. So hopefully, she can shelter in place.

I haven't left the house since Friday morning. I have no desire to step foot in a store, there's nothing I need and its too people-y out there anyway!

 

[Friday Fan]

Sarasota update:
The schools are closing Tue & Wed so they can be used as shelters. There is a mandatory Level A evacuation here. That usually means the beach and bay side, Long Boat Key, Siesta Key, etc.

My youngest is camping in NC and will have to delay her drive home until Thu. My friends in Lawrenceville, GA will host her on Tue night & Wed night while the storm passes.

My oldest is in Panama City Beach and has Covid so evacuating is tricky. She could get a hotel if necessary. But, that area is on the edge of the cone, kinda like I am here. So hopefully, she can shelter in place.

I haven't left the house since Friday morning. I have no desire to step foot in a store, there's nothing I need and its too people-y out there anyway!

I hope your oldest will be OK. Is she in a surge risk area?

 

[Lexiintoronto]

Sarasota update:
The schools are closing Tue & Wed so they can be used as shelters. There is a mandatory Level A evacuation here. That usually means the beach and bay side, Long Boat Key, Siesta Key, etc.

My youngest is camping in NC and will have to delay her drive home until Thu. My friends in Lawrenceville, GA will host her on Tue night & Wed night while the storm passes.

My oldest is in Panama City Beach and has Covid so evacuating is tricky. She could get a hotel if necessary. But, that area is on the edge of the cone, kinda like I am here. So hopefully, she can shelter in place.

I haven't left the house since Friday morning. I have no desire to step foot in a store, there's nothing I need and its too people-y out there anyway!

I’m not familiar with the names, but I understand you’re in Idalia’s path. We’re concerned for all of you and for Cuba. But I know you’re very self-sufficient and prepared. I understand not wanting to go out to the stores right now and them being ‘too people-y out there’. (lol!) It may not be worth the added stress

 

[lonetraveler]

Sarasota update:
The schools are closing Tue & Wed so they can be used as shelters. There is a mandatory Level A evacuation here. That usually means the beach and bay side, Long Boat Key, Siesta Key, etc.

My youngest is camping in NC and will have to delay her drive home until Thu. My friends in Lawrenceville, GA will host her on Tue night & Wed night while the storm passes.

My oldest is in Panama City Beach and has Covid so evacuating is tricky. She could get a hotel if necessary. But, that area is on the edge of the cone, kinda like I am here. So hopefully, she can shelter in place.

I haven't left the house since Friday morning. I have no desire to step foot in a store, there's nothing I need and its too people-y out there anyway!

I live on the SE coast of NC and we are under a high alert level for Wednesday and Thursday and are expecting Tropical Storm conditions with flooding. CAT 3 hurricane is now forecasted to hit Florida.

 

[PayrollNerd]

I hope your oldest will be OK. Is she in a surge risk area?

She can walk to the beach but is in Evacuation Zone C. Of course that doesn't mean diddly if the storm is strong & furious. The NOAA office is in Evacuation Zone B so she literally needs to stay put, unless this monster veers to the left.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[Puzzles8]

Tomorrow will be a telling day. Prayers for everyone to say safe.

For storm tracking, I'd suggest WFLA in Tampa. At some point they will probably go to live coverage.

WFLA

WFLA News Channel 8 On Your Side in Tampa Bay Florida

www.wfla.com

@PayrollNerd , what do you consider the best station in your area?

Take care all!

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tomorrow will be a telling day. Prayers for everyone to say safe.

For storm tracking, I'd suggest WFLA in Tampa. At some point they will probably go to live coverage.

WFLA

WFLA News Channel 8 On Your Side in Tampa Bay Florida

www.wfla.com

@PayrollNerd , what do you consider the best station in your area?

Take care all!

Agreed, tomorrow is going to give us a better idea. It probably will be the big bend area, but the right quadrant does the most damage.

The flooding is going to be scary. That wind will literally shove that water right up into the Peace River, Myakka River, into Tampa Bay and any other tributaries. You can be 10 miles inland and be flooded.

I actually do not own a TV nor do I have cable. I just have basic internet.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

I live on the SE coast of NC and we are under a high alert level for Wednesday and Thursday and are expecting Tropical Storm conditions with flooding. CAT 3 hurricane is now forecasted to hit Florida.
View attachment 443417

Stay safe. We’re all thinking of you and everyone in the storm’s path.

I hope everyone keeps us updated as much as they can, but we understand that you will have other priorities.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

Agreed, tomorrow is going to give us a better idea. It probably will be the big bend area, but the right quadrant does the most damage.

The flooding is going to be scary. That wind will literally shove that water right up into the Peace River, Myakka River, into Tampa Bay and any other tributaries. You can be 10 miles inland and be flooded.

I actually do not own a TV nor do I have cable. I just have basic internet.

When Fiona knocked out everything here in Nova Scotia last year I was able to get a weak signal on my cellphone and load Twitter only. It became my lifeline.