You are correct, I was assuming JS would have seen the flat tire on his car and there is no report out there stating unequivocally that JS was aware of the flat tire on SS car. I was building off some basic assumptions on the timeline, such as:
And one of my biggest assumptions was that she would have looked at SS' car before Tuesday and have known about the flat. That was based on the assumption that the
police flyer that was released on 3/1/24 showed a picture of the vehicle
as it appeared on 2/26 with an obvious spare tire and missing rim on it. I suppose we could
instead assume that in the ~24 hours after her child went missing on Monday until the interview on Tuesday JS never bothered to go outside her home to the parking lot to look at the last car her child was seen in (I
think it's safe to say the car would be outside her house since he was seen driving back to the complex but that may also be an assumption!)
You are also correct that I was, indeed, making assumptions that JS knew about SS "accidental factory reset" at the time of the cuddle interview. I think it's worth explaining how I landed on that assumption.
- During the cuddle interview, the interviewer says it's been about 24 hours since JS noticed Maddie was missing at 4:00 p.m. on Monday so I am (again) assuming the interview was taken by Channel 9 around the end of the business day on Tuesday.
- The arrest affidavit says: "[a]n interview was conducted with the victim's stepfather...During the interview, he provided consent to search his phone, however he stated had accidentally performed a factory reset on his phone on February 26, 2024, the same day the victim went missing."
- So since he was arrested on Wednesday, February 28, 2024, I (again) assumed he provided his phone to police before that day on Monday or Tuesday because they'd need time to look through the contents from the factory reset.
- I based the assumption that his interview had to be Monday or Tuesday on a few things:
- The Incident Report that was taken on Monday, February 26th seen in this video around 1:35 (right before the cuddling) has a statement from Orange County Sheriff Deputy Joseph that says "I later spoke to Stephan Stern who stated in a verbal and sworn written statement..." So I assumed Orange County Sheriff Deputy Joseph could have interviewed him that Monday.
- During a press conference, Orange County Sheriff Mina also provided context about the possible time of the interviews where police took SS' phone - twice in fact - that made me think the phone was taken before the cuddle:
- The first mention is here beginning at 10:16 where Sheriff Mina says: "the Blood Hound did an extensive search which unfortunately did not provide any results about her whereabouts so our missing persons detective responded to take over the investigation so they did interviews with mom's boyfriend, Madeline's friends from school and we were able to access Maddie's phone..."
- The second mention is here beginning at 10:55 in the same video where Sheriff Mina says: "so during the course of the day on Tuesday detectives and deputies conducted extensive interviews and an extensive canvas and we collected video from the area and again conducted interviews with family members."
- And I built more assumptions based on the fact that during the interview where SS is awkwardly lurking behind JS he appears to be trying to look busy but (despite comments elsewhere) is not scrolling through any phone on Tuesday at 10 pm.
- So perhaps I should not have assumed they took his phone during an interview on Monday or Tuesday before the Tuesday cuddle video or his arrest on Wednesday. I assumed they may have been collecting phones before the interview because they had taken Maddie's phone by then based on:
- The same Sheriff Mina video from above at 10:16 where he mentions that they had Maddie's phone in conjunction with the first time an SS interview was referenced ("so they did interviews with mom's boyfriend, Madeline's friends from school and we were able to access Maddie's phone...") and confirms he has Maddie's phone again at 18:33;
- A guess that they were heavily collecting evidence by that point since the house itself was in police custody by the time Sheriff Mina's press conference on Wednesday afternoon.
- JS also says during the cuddle video that "the detectives have her [Maddie's] phone" but is also seen at 2:54 scrolling through a phone. I assumed JS was scrolling through her own phone rather than Maddie's since she is wearing the same clothes, in the same position, at the same table, with the same interviewer, as the video where she said the detectives have Maddie's phone.
- The fact the arrest affidavit also contains SS' own statement on what his phone number was, which I assumed (again!) the police may have asked him for after they took Maddie's phone to trace back the last communications such as calls or texts between the two.
- I also made assumptions that his phone reset may have come up at some point prior to the cuddle, like:
- When SS was interviewed I assumed JS might ask him about how the interview went and I assumed he may have mentioned they took his phone and details on it then (but that's assuming someone would ask their boyfriend how a police interview about their missing kid went..) Even if he wanted to lie, I assumed he may have had to have admitted it earlier, like:
- When the person making missing flyers on Monday would have asked for recent photos of Maddie (such as from her birthday) which SS would not be able to produce since he factory reset his phone specifically to hide photos; or
- When JS or the police were trying to pinpoint the exact time SS dropped off Maddie on Monday they would have asked him to give location data to pinpoint it and that's when he would have disclosed his phone had been reset.
- There's about a dozen other times I think it would have come up to a normal person but I assume a lot!
I'll just state it plainly:
- Mom should have seen SS' flat tire at some point on Monday or Tuesday when he was at the complex considering his vehicle was the last her child was seen in; and
- Mom should have known the phone was reset when SS could not produce any useful phone info during a critical missing person investigation into her child's disappearance; and
- Mom should have been suspicious about why police took SS' phone when she clearly was in possession of a phone during the same period.
So yes, they're assumptions.