France - 5 shot, 4 dead in French Alps, may have int'l ramifications, 2012 #2

[Skigh]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/thereport

Radio 4 did a report yesterday.Hope link works!

 

[jjenny]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/thereport

Radio 4 did a report yesterday.Hope link works!

According to that program the house was left to Saad only as he was his mother's favorite. But he felt bad about it and registered his brother there too.
Saad had recently changed all the locks on that house.

 

[Skigh]

According to that program the house was left to Saad only as he was his mother's favorite. But he felt bad about it and registered his brother there too.
Saad had recently changed all the locks on that house.

My feelings are the bbc is deliberately trying to make the general public think the killings are because of a family feud.

The fact that Saad gave his brother his share of the house and that it is reported that the father's estate is worth £4 million makes it seem to me that it would be unlikely that his brother would arrange a killing.

Could it be that perhaps Granny and Mrs Al-Hilli were involved in something and perhaps they were the intended targets?

 

[jjenny]

First he apparently gave the brother his share of the house but it appears he changed his mind since he changed the locks.
And he and his brother were apparently at odds about the house. It might be nothing but I certainly think police should look into it.
As for grandma, what could grandma possibly have done to be a target for murder?

 

[wfgodot]

So. What are the odds here on each possibility? 7.5 it's a family matter, 5.2 it's an international incident, 6.5 for the field, i.e., it's not either of these but something else entirely?

 

[jjenny]

There is always a possibility that it's some random nutcase, I guess (however unlikely).
Also possible the cyclist was the target (also not likely in my opinion, but still possible).

 

[wfgodot]

That's why I put the short odds on the field. Need a new model, I guess, that lists random nutcase and French cyclist the target independently.

 

[rotterdam]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/thereport

Radio 4 did a report yesterday.Hope link works!

Did you notice that it also reported that SAH's dad left for Spain 15 years ago? That would be before the mother died, so that earlier reported parents separation could be true.

 

[rotterdam]

First he apparently gave the brother his share of the house but it appears he changed his mind since he changed the locks.
And he and his brother were apparently at odds about the house. It might be nothing but I certainly think police should look into it.
As for grandma, what could grandma possibly have done to be a target for murder?

Unless Saad was some kind of a saint, I find that (giving half the house to Zaid)hard to believe. Siblings normally do not do that.
On the other hand, Mom could have been thoroughly disgusted with Zaid, since obviously he did not marry a Muslim. With a last name of O'Reilly, more likely a Roman Catholic. Hence the disinherit Zaid thingy.

 

[wfgodot]

Okay, let's try these odds:

Family matter 7.5
International incident: 5.2
Random nutcase 10.1
Cyclist the target 8.1

Feel welcome to rip them asunder.

 

[rotterdam]

So. What are the odds here on each possibility? 7.5 it's a family matter, 5.2 it's an international incident, 6.5 for the field, i.e., it's not either of these but something else entirely?

Guess we need a poll. My bet is on a lethal Iraqi connection/money shake down and by trying to keep the house in Claygate, as a vector.

 

[jjenny]

However they came to be sharing the house, apparently they were in dispute over it. Saad changed the locks on the house and was concerned about ending up in court over it.

""Saad said his brother had sacked his solicitor and he had no communication with [his brother] anymore," Mr Albdi said."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19729566

 

[rotterdam]

Okay, let's try these odds:

Family matter 7.5
International incident: 5.2
Random nutcase 10.1
Cyclist the target 8.1

Feel welcome to rip them asunder.

I like to see the "international incident" broken down a little as follows.
State sponsored assassination (low IMO)
Payback, origin Iraq via hired thugs.
Industrial espionage.

 

[wfgodot]

I like to see the "international incident" broken down a little as follows.
State sponsored assassination (low IMO)
Payback, origin Iraq via hired thugs.
Industrial espionage.

I'd put payback and espionage at 7.5 and state sponsored at 8.1.

 

[kiwi50]

Unless Saad was some kind of a saint, I find that (giving half the house to Zaid)hard to believe. Siblings normally do not do that.
On the other hand, Mom could have been thoroughly disgusted with Zaid, since obviously he did not marry a Muslim. With a last name of O'Reilly, more likely a Roman Catholic. Hence the disinherit Zaid thingy.

I agree it's odd giving Zaid half the house. One would have thought if the mother has been dead 10 years or so, this would have been long settled, was there an agreement that Zaid would get more of the father's estate when he died, and Saad has reneged or disputed it.

I still think family and money were involved, just because that seems to be the only concrete facts we have.
I wonder why Zaid is being so quiet, surely if this dispute was only minor, he could speak out about his slain family.

 

[rotterdam]

I agree it's odd giving Zaid half the house. One would have thought if the mother has been dead 10 years or so, this would have been long settled, was there an agreement that Zaid would get more of the father's estate when he died, and Saad has reneged or disputed it.

I still think family and money were involved, just because that seems to be the only concrete facts we have.
I wonder why Zaid is being so quiet, surely if this dispute was only minor, he could speak out about his slain family.

We do not the motive of the killings. Zaid could be scared too and so could other family members.
The SAH family did not appear to be living high on the hog. The house was in need of some maintenance. The back yard, no fancy patio, cheap plastic chairs and some eyesore of a covered small area, did not translate into available cash money. No fancy caravan, no late model BMW. May be even one that he refurbished. A pet project ruin in France that he had been trying to sell the past 2-3 years.
If Saad was involved in selling info previously, you would expect some ready cash money and buying out his brother would be no problem. Monies for such endeavors could have been easily laundered into his companies.
Saad as a typical engineer, was a tinkerer IMO. Hardly international spy material. The report that he needed cash money in order to hold on to his beloved house, is troublesome. May be he did start something stupid and dangerous. Even blackmail comes to mind(important documents). Lots of American $$$$ went AWOL in Iraq.
But then it could also be a red herring.

 

[rotterdam]

I'd put payback and espionage at 7.5 and state sponsored at 8.1.

I put high odds on (private)Iraqi connections.
The BBC radio 4 mentioned that SAH's dad lost money. He apparently never worked after he left Iraq. Some of his assets(income producing?) must have been in Iraq.
Saad could have been aggressively pursuing family Iraqi properties/interest that were confiscated/stolen from his dad over the years. Especially since he needed money to buy out his brother. His dad's death might have given him access to "important documents"'. His dad knew better and did not pursue it.
Naive Saad went for it and got his family killed/hurt.
The current owners/squatters of such Iraqi properties did strike back in a lethal fashion.
It was reported earlier that there was no cooperation out of Baghdad.
Money(greed), not political,religious or espionage, could be the only root of the massacre.

 

[Snoopster]

Google translated quote:

"The four victims were shot twice in the head. This technique of double tap suggests that the killer is a professional who received military training. The weapon used is a submachine gun type Skorpion VZ61, a weapon manufactured in the Balkans, notably used by special forces and Yugoslav Serbian associated with organized crime, "said Marc Drijoux, who believes that the killer is a former paramilitary recruited Serbian mafia in the middle.

In recent years, many intelligence services rely on killers of Serbian origin who operate in the same manner as UDBA (the former Yugoslav secret police, NDT) that liquidating opponents exiled to the West, "says he.

For him, "the carnage was deliberate." "For anyone with military experience or in the field of intelligence, it would have been easier to disguise the murder in road accident - especially as these mountain roads are dangerous, as reported by a panel behind the police cordon and visible in the photographs. [...] The perpetrators have not only wanted to kill, but also send a message to others. '

http://balkans.courriers.info/article20798.html


I wonder if you can hire these guys on kijiji??
:innocent:

 

[Swamp Fox Trot]

I just noticed a few similarities with the Juan Dumois case of 1 August 1980 in Florida. In both cases:
1) entire family of exiles murdered in their vehicle on vacation;
2) efficient, effective operation;
3) retired air force officer on the scene;
4) bicycles present.
Source: http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/227855-foy-letter-to-frankos-5-12-93.html

 

[Snoopster]

O.K. Swamp Fox Trot, that is just plain creepy. The similarities gave me the chills. :/