Geographic Profiling

[dotr]

I guess once my medical retirement comes through, I will research since it hasn't been done.

Human T. issue is raised in this LISK thread if you are interested ArmyLady!
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...rolled-Prostitutution&p=10630347#post10630347

 

[shadowraiths]

There's a closed LISK maps thread, which I moved to the top of this forum, for reference. That thread can be found here:

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?134809-Maps-amp-Aerial-Photos-***-NO-DISCUSSION-***

 

[Neptune]

Excerpt: I realize that I'm not profiling geographically according to the strict definition of the term & how it's done, but here goes nothin!

I think use whatever method helps you to understand the crime and that you’re comfortable with (I can’t do complicated math formulas, so that’s out for me!) Any effort is noble effort.

Excerpt: Mission Killers kill for a specific purpose, such as to do God's work by ridding the world of "depraved prostitutes"

Never heard of this definition – and it’s exactly what I think the LISK is. Good comment.

Excerpt: I can't figure out yet how to draw a line 125 degrees ESE from Gilgo Beach to see if it crosses Bermuda yet, but I'm studying, and I'll let you know.

Obviously, from my many post about Google Earth, it’s my favorite sleuthing tool. Google Earth is different than Google Maps. You must download it (for free) and it’s a giant globe that takes you anywhere in the world in a matter of seconds. It also has tools: “push” pins for marking spots (these can be private or public) and – for this challenge of yours – a ruler where you can draw and save a line! Good luck!

 

[Oriensbelt]

Very interesting Super Sleuth, you maybe on to something. Like I said in a previous post, someone that is a state park employee, he knows this area very well, but lives close but not too close. :thinking:

 

[Neptune]

Does anyone know if any members are building GIS layers in Google Earth? I started a point file for missing women in TN (that's where I live) and quickly was overwhelmed with the number of missing from the bigger cities. I used to be a researcher using GIS and image analysis (now disabled) and decided to dig around a little before re-inventing the wheel....

Do you mean in the Gallery? After all, Websleuths is ultimately a public service. Can't think of a better website that could benefit from a GIS component.

 

[matou]

What are the storm and tidal impacts to Gilgo beach? Maybe the suspect knows that tides and other processes could flood out the bodies so he wrapped them? In an effort to make sure the body parts stayed together? Is the northern shore of the parkway prone to flooding? I would think that hurricanes would do some serious damage to such low lying ground. JMO

 

[Neptune]

Does anyone know if any members are building GIS layers in Google Earth? I started a point file for missing women in TN (that's where I live) and quickly was overwhelmed with the number of missing from the bigger cities. I used to be a researcher using GIS and image analysis (now disabled) and decided to dig around a little before re-inventing the wheel....

Do you mean in the Gallery? After all, Websleuths is ultimately a public service. Can't think of a better website that could benefit from a GIS component.

Also, AmyLou... I was thinking... building a UID/MP layer in Google Earth might make a good exit project for a CS or GIS graduate student.

 

[No it's not]

Should have posted in this thread, so here goes:

When I connect JANE DOE Nr.3 ( mother of toddler, found just off the service road on Jones Beach) in a straight line to where LAQUETTA GUNTHER was found (alley across from 650 between 703/705 North Beach St, Daytona FL) or Daytona Beach in general or Atlantic City in general, look at the locations:

• Jones Beach NY, at least 10 on JB and GB/ Statepark
• Atlantic City NJ, AC-4
• Norfolk/Virginia Beach VI, any unsolved murders?
• Wilmington NC, any unsolved murders?
• Daytona Beach FL, DB-4
• Orlando FL, any unsolved murders?
• I-4 all the way to Lakeland/ Bartow FL, plenty unsolved murders

If LISK was to be responsible for all 10 murders ("lineup")from JB to N of GB, then I find it highly interesting, that LI/GB, AC, DB and most of the I4-stretch lies on one straight line!!

-Nin

 

[Forager]

"No it's not", you've clearly put a lot of thought into this (the post immediately below), so the fault may be mine, but I'm having trouble understanding your larger point. Could you give me more on the connections you are seeing?

 

[twocuriouscats]

Should have posted in this thread, so here goes:

When I connect JANE DOE Nr.3 ( mother of toddler, found just off the service road on Jones Beach) in a straight line to where LAQUETTA GUNTHER was found (alley across from 650 between 703/705 North Beach St, Daytona FL) or Daytona Beach in general or Atlantic City in general, look at the locations:

• Jones Beach NY, at least 10 on JB and GB/ Statepark
• Atlantic City NJ, AC-4
• Norfolk/Virginia Beach VI, any unsolved murders?
• Wilmington NC, any unsolved murders?
• Daytona Beach FL, DB-4
• Orlando FL, any unsolved murders?
• I-4 all the way to Lakeland/ Bartow FL, plenty unsolved murders

If LISK was to be responsible for all 10 murders ("lineup")from JB to N of GB, then I find it highly interesting, that LI/GB, AC, DB and most of the I4-stretch lies on one straight line!!

-Nin

Please consider the victimology - JMO (just my opinion). I see your geographical point, but it goes mostly through the ocean. Does that count if the killer can't drive by? Do you think he has a boat and piloted it down to FLA? I feel like I'm missing something (not the first time lol)! BTW, plenty of unsolveds in VA, Wilmington and Orlando, not sure they are connected.

 

[twocuriouscats]

Should have posted in this thread, so here goes:

When I connect JANE DOE Nr.3 ( mother of toddler, found just off the service road on Jones Beach) in a straight line to where LAQUETTA GUNTHER was found (alley across from 650 between 703/705 North Beach St, Daytona FL) or Daytona Beach in general or Atlantic City in general, look at the locations:

• Jones Beach NY, at least 10 on JB and GB/ Statepark
• Atlantic City NJ, AC-4
• Norfolk/Virginia Beach VI, any unsolved murders?
• Wilmington NC, any unsolved murders?
• Daytona Beach FL, DB-4
• Orlando FL, any unsolved murders?
• I-4 all the way to Lakeland/ Bartow FL, plenty unsolved murders

If LISK was to be responsible for all 10 murders ("lineup")from JB to N of GB, then I find it highly interesting, that LI/GB, AC, DB and most of the I4-stretch lies on one straight line!!

-Nin

Amber Costello was from Wilmington.

 

[Forager]

Does anyone know if any members are building GIS layers in Google Earth? I started a point file for missing women in TN (that's where I live) and quickly was overwhelmed with the number of missing from the bigger cities. I used to be a researcher using GIS and image analysis (now disabled) and decided to dig around a little before re-inventing the wheel....

It's good to see cartographic talent coming to Websleuths! Welcome!

I've made some WS case maps in the form of linked Google My Maps, and seen lots of others. I could have missed them, but I have never seen anything beyond screenshots from any other mapping platform, including Google Earth. I use and love GE, but have never tried to share on WS with it. Too few WS site users have Earth on their machines. Anyone can hit a map on My Maps, and lots do. It isn't as powerful or slick, but has almost always accommodated what I wanted to do with it on WS. Re. missing persons, for instance, My Maps did a fast, good job of importing and mapping a spreadsheet of missing women in PA that I pulled down from the NamUs* site.

With the right sharing settings, My Maps permits collaboration on maps, but not much of that seems to happen. As close as I've come to that was in a missing persons case. I worked up a case map and another sleuther suggested an area in which she thought the person's remains might be found. So I mapped those. I had invited the other people on the thread to contribute to the map and set it so anyone with the link could edit the map. Someone took me up on that and moved some of my markers around to incorrect locations. LE checked the suggested search area, found that it had been recently disturbed, and got word to me that they would prefer that we keep our hunches to ourselves. Ouch!

* NamUs also has it's own mapping function. It had been broken for a while, but seems to be working well now. Here's a link to the NamUs missing unidentified persons databases: https://namus.gov/

Here's what the NamUs site shows for missing persons for the area around Gilgo Beach:



And for unidentified persons:

 

[BigCityAccountant]

"No it's not", you've clearly put a lot of thought into this (the post immediately below), so the fault may be mine, but I'm having trouble understanding your larger point. Could you give me more on the connections you are seeing?

.
I see an airplane route....LOL

 

[margarita25]

You guys rock!

( opcorn: )

 

[c4rtm4n]

margarita25 sent me this thread as I was learning about Geographic Profiling (GP) earlier in the year and have been building a system to do geoprofiles.

I've run the dump site coordinates from 1997 - 2008 from shadowraith's map. Rossmo's formula is dependent on the buffer size. As these are all disposal sites, usually said to be further away from the perps anchor than the point of encounter, I have doubled the buffer from what it typically is. Not to mention that using the standard buffer calculation meant the hottest zones were in the water....

I have little undertsanding of the actual geography and nature of these crimes. I am not a geographic profiler. A proper geoprofile I assume would be like https://www.scribd.com/document/181289642/Zodiac-Killer-geographic-profile-by-Kim-Rossmo-Ph-D, all I've done is run the numbers and made a set of pictures.

Here is the set of profiles using various formulae I've run for LISK: http://geographicprofiler.com/crimes/long-island-serial-killer-dump-sites

Take them with a grain of salt.

You can find links to papers about GP http://geographicprofiler.com/papers. If you want to learn about GP and the various formulas, these are a good start, particularly Dr Rossmo's dissertation Geographic Profiling: Target Patterns of Serial Murderers.

 

[FindHG]

margarita25 sent me this thread as I was learning about Geographic Profiling (GP) earlier in the year and have been building a system to do geoprofiles.

I've run the dump site coordinates from 1997 - 2008 from shadowraith's map. Rossmo's formula is dependent on the buffer size. As these are all disposal sites, usually said to be further away from the perps anchor than the point of encounter, I have doubled the buffer from what it typically is. Not to mention that using the standard buffer calculation meant the hottest zones were in the water....

I have little undertsanding of the actual geography and nature of these crimes. I am not a geographic profiler. A proper geoprofile I assume would be like https://www.scribd.com/document/181289642/Zodiac-Killer-geographic-profile-by-Kim-Rossmo-Ph-D, all I've done is run the numbers and made a set of pictures.

Here is the set of profiles using various formulae I've run for LISK: http://geographicprofiler.com/crimes/long-island-serial-killer-dump-sites

Take them with a grain of salt.

You can find links to papers about GP http://geographicprofiler.com/papers. If you want to learn about GP and the various formulas, these are a good start, particularly Dr Rossmo's dissertation Geographic Profiling: Target Patterns of Serial Murderers.

Great to see, even with salt,c4rtm4n. Ever so grateful to you for all this information to consider and to magz for getting it going. Thank you!!! http://geographicprofiler.com/crimes/long-island-serial-killer-dump-sites

 

[Forager]

So if I'm understanding correctly, there's a fair likelyhood that LISK lives on a boat, eh? ;-)

You are getting good, c4rtm4n. That Rossmo map is much slicker than the ones you were doing some months back on the Colorado highway shootings. Thanks for doing it.

 

[theconsortiumxf]

New sleuth on the block here. I stumbled across an episode of The Killing Season one night in a borderline-delirious grad school marathon study daze and was fascinated by the story.

Anyway, sorry if the following has been posted ad nauseum but it popped in my head and I decided to create an account here to post it: The GB4 were buried 500 feet apart. 500x4 = 2000 feet, which = 666.6667 yards. Coincidence or possibly intentional on the killers part?

 

[diamond29]

Josh and Rachel~~great show~~~great work. Kuddos to you both. Hopefully both of you will be up for a reward, just like MaM.
:goldcrown:

Please forgive me as I'm not familiar with the type of work most of these ladies were in...

A few questions/random thoughts...

Is is common to use a name other than your own in this type of business? The reason I ask, is 3 of the identified victims seem to begin with the letter "M" and I'm wondering if Amber could have possibly have gone by a name that begins with "M". Also, along those lines, if that appears to be the case, I'm wondering if someone in LISK's family (maybe mother???) name would also begin with an "M".

I also noticed a recurring theme of the number 5. As in the 500 feet distance (which I realize has been disproven.) But, it seems there were 5 in a row. 4 insiders and 1 outside (the Asian male). I'm wondering if that signifies something more. Perhaps, LISK was born out of wedlock when mother was in the same type of work and mother remarried into a family with 3 other children (females) and LISK always felt like the outsider?

Can we trace the number of victims to perhaps a phone number or address? IIRC, the victims were found in multiples of 2, 4, 2, 2 or 2, 5, 1, 2. On the A&E map~~it appears the first 2 victims were spaced apart, as if he planned to fill it in with other victims~~then 4 together, then 2 apart, and then 2 together.

IIRC, hurricane Sandy hit LI~~was there any attempt by LE to go back to the site to see if any other evidence was uncovered?

Lastly, I'm a numbers person...LOL~~so I was looking at the spacing posted by Shadowraiths. Hi Shadowraiths :seeya:!!!

Costello & Barthelemy: 0.16 mi = 257.495 m
Barthelemy & Barnes: 0.05 mi = 80.4672 m
Barnes & Waterman: 0.07 mi = 112.654 m
Waterman & John Doe: 0.28 mi = 450.616 m
John Doe & JT: 0.62 mi = 997.793 m
JT & Jane Doe 6: 1.43 mi = 2301.361 m
Jane Doe 6 & Baby Doe: 0.04 mi = 64.3737 m

So, here goes...(just approximating)

The distance between Barthelemy & Barnes was 80 meters. The distance between Jane Doe 6 and Baby Doe is 64. 80-64 = 16 meters.

The distance between Barthelemy & Barnes was 80. The distance between Barnes and Waterman is 112. 112-80 = 32.

16 x 2 = 32 coincidence? Perhaps?

32 x 2 = 64
64+12 = 80

There seems to be a pattern revolving around the number 16.

64/16=4
80/16=5
112/16=7
257/16=16.0625
450/16=28.16
except these two don't have a multiple of 16, unless there is some other multiple.....
997/16 = 62.3125
2301.361 /16 = 143.83

The first 3 are disconcerting..was there anything found at 96? Like possibly another victim? Victim #6, perhaps?? Are there 2 others at 16 and 32 meters??

Is it possible that lisk could have moved to another country or travels back and fourth between seasons. In British Columbia Canada we have alot of aboriginal women murdered and missing called "the highway of tears" street women in Edmonton Alberta and Toronto are being murdered.

 

[dexter75]

Is it possible that lisk could have moved to another country or travels back and fourth between seasons. In British Columbia Canada we have alot of aboriginal women murdered and missing called "the highway of tears" street women in Edmonton Alberta and Toronto are being murdered.

Indeed you could be onto something..
The " highway of tears " has always been very fascinating to me.

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