If it's aggravated child abuse then it's murder in the first degree as well. I think for the jury in the end it will come down to whether it was an accident or abuse/murder (either two is fine with me). I think from the jailvideos we've seen, we don't see a Casey that's afraid of anybody. In the jailhouse tapes, she doesn't talk to Cindy as afraid of her. They were the one tiptoeing around issues, afraid to frustrate Casey. We even see Casey blowing up, saying it was a waste calling Cindy, wanting Tony. From the jailhouse videos I really can't picture a Casey that's scared of Cindy. More of an indignant Casey.
I think it will come down to accident or murder. Since chloroforming your kid is aggravated child abuse it would be murder. And I just don't see the drowning-theory working. A cop really thought it would be better to get rid of a body (jailtime)than report an accident (no jailtime)? The defense really shot themselves in the foot (Thanks Jose, my man) by involving GEORGE in it. I mean, Casey could've panicked (yeah right), but George as well?