Hurricane Dean
- Thread starter Beyond Belief
- Start date
Buzz Mills
New Member
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...71.0 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
HEADS-UP JAMAICA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...71.0 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
HEADS-UP JAMAICA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.
MissieMt
New Member
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2007
- Messages
- 3,288
- Reaction score
- 12
Thank you deandaniellws!!
I just got home from work. I don't work the grocery side, but according to the folks that were in the breakroom, everyone is stocking up on hurricane supplies, which makes for mayhem. But I'm glad people are taking it seriously, even though it's not projected to hit here.
Peter Hamilton
New Member
- Joined
- May 14, 2006
- Messages
- 3,374
- Reaction score
- 15
--No--They didn't start naming them til after WW II--and it was only Female names for decades til they changed it to include Male names also--btw thanks for that link to the 1921 storm--population has inceased from 135,000 to 2,500,000 since then--wow, and the same storm today would cause 13 billion in damage!
AmandaBrown23
Im just living among all the madness
- Joined
- May 15, 2007
- Messages
- 1,098
- Reaction score
- 37
Looks like its far away from us!
SeriouslySearching
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2007
- Messages
- 35,527
- Reaction score
- 264
Whew! It seems it might go slightly south of Jamaica! That would be such a blessing!
Buzz Mills
New Member
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...ADDED STORM SURGE INFORMATION...
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...HEADING TOWARD JAMAICA...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE
OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 (was 70) MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 (was 230) MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N...71.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.(was 150mph)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB. (was 920)
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
HEADS-UP JAMAICA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007
...ADDED STORM SURGE INFORMATION...
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...HEADING TOWARD JAMAICA...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE
OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 (was 70) MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 (was 230) MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N...71.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.(was 150mph)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB. (was 920)
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
HEADS-UP JAMAICA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024525.shtml?3day?large#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143525.shtml?5day?large#contents
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.
Buzz Mills
New Member
Not for Jamaica SS--the right side of the hurricane carries the major brunt.
Marthatex
New Member
So is it coming to Texas, or still aiming for Yukutan? I haven't really been worrying yet.
SeriouslySearching
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Hmmmm...Yes...this is true, Buzz..but they talked like it was better than Jamaica taking a direct hit. So which is it?
Buzz Mills
New Member
Don't know for sure yet Mtex, but it moved further South which takes it further away from Texas. It's a wait and see what develeops.
Marthatex
New Member
GREAT! You're much better than watching TV. I shall sleep soundly.
Dark Knight
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Elphaba
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From the look of NOAA charts, the Yucatan is projected to take the brunt of Dean in the a.m. of Tuesday. It will definitely cause a lot of damage for that area (lots of poor areas there... keep those folks in your thoughts and prayers) , but hopefully the width of land as Dean makes landfall, will be enough to slow it well down and initiate a major break up of it before it can move on to cause more devastation as a high category hurricane. If the storm doesn't wobble off the projected track, Texas should fare well and not take a blow... but the Gulf is a mighty place for fueling and refueling hurricanes.
It is in times like this, that mother nature reminds us that we are her mercy.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?3day?large#contents
It is in times like this, that mother nature reminds us that we are her mercy.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?3day?large#contents
This is my first hurricane season in florida (first season anywhere) anyhow, I'm not far from Pensacola.
do hurricanes always go in a straight path?
Wasnt there a hurricane that changed directions and hit over in this direction?
Im learning and tryng to prepare should we need to,Im really green in this area.
Im keeping a close eye on it, but should I be worried for this area?
do hurricanes always go in a straight path?
Wasnt there a hurricane that changed directions and hit over in this direction?
Im learning and tryng to prepare should we need to,Im really green in this area.
Im keeping a close eye on it, but should I be worried for this area?
poco
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No, hurricanes do not always go in a straight path. I live in Largo area - we were suppose to be a direct hit a few years back (see post earlier in this thread; Hurricane Charlie, 2004). We were told to GTHO (get the H out). Then, all of a sudden, Charlie makes an abrupt right turn and slams into Punta Gorda. We got nothing........
Going to see if I can find a map of it for ya.
poco
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Charley_2004_track.png
see how it kinda took a NE turn - it was suppose to hit a little further up the coast, but missed us completely. These things are quite unpredictable.
What's funny (not really) is our whole area (Pinellas County) was told to evacuate and a lot of people did and they all headed for the center of the state where they ended up getting slammed. Sometimes I wonder, unless it is a 4 or 5, if it is not better to just stay put.
MissieMt
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When my husband was in the Air Force we had to evacuate whenever they said to. We have now agreed that if it is a cat3 or higher we will leave. If it was just me and him, and no kids we would probably stay for a cat3. I can just imagine the look of terror in my kids faces if they had to stay for something like that.
PrayersForMaura
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UPDATES:
At 5 a.m., the Category 4 storm, described by forecasters as "extremely dangerous," had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. It is forecast to reach Category 5 intensity, with winds in excess of 155 mph, before bearing down on Jamaica.
Hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles from the center and tropical-force winds extended up to 205 miles.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/19/storms/index.html
Media, police say at least 5 people killed as Dean cuts through Caribbean
Hurricane to brush Haiti, bear down on Jamaica on Sunday, forecasters say
Dean expected to reach Category 5, with 155 mph winds, en route to Jamaica
Forecasters warn of coastal storm surge up to 9 feet over normal tide levels
At 5 a.m., the Category 4 storm, described by forecasters as "extremely dangerous," had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. It is forecast to reach Category 5 intensity, with winds in excess of 155 mph, before bearing down on Jamaica.
Hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles from the center and tropical-force winds extended up to 205 miles.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/19/storms/index.html
Media, police say at least 5 people killed as Dean cuts through Caribbean
Hurricane to brush Haiti, bear down on Jamaica on Sunday, forecasters say
Dean expected to reach Category 5, with 155 mph winds, en route to Jamaica
Forecasters warn of coastal storm surge up to 9 feet over normal tide levels