Hurricane Harvey - August 2017

[CARIIS]

Thanks Coldpizza for starting this thread! Checking in from East Texas. I'm about 50 miles from Lufkin! Expecting rain and wind for sure probably much like Ike! Prayers for everyone in the storm's path to be safe!

How far away are you from landfall -- be careful

 

[CARIIS]

Hurricane Harvey Rainfall Poses Danger to Ill-Prepared New Orleans

As a major hurricane churns in the Gulf of Mexico, New Orleans is facing the biggest threat to public safety since Katrina ravaged the city 12 years ago. With a large number of pumps and turbines out of service, it is not clear if the city is ready for Hurricane Harvey, and the city is studying emergency evacuation plans.

Three of the five power turbines that power the 120 pumps that are supposed to keep the low-lying city from being swamped by rainwater are not working. And 15 of those pumps were offline because of repairs.

Earlier this month, substantial rainfall caused the Lakeview and Mid-City neighborhoods to flood, soaking some areas in knee-deep water because the city’s pump and drainage systems were not at full capacity. Harvey is expected to pour another five to 10 inches of rain on the city.

Oh man they broke like last week that unreal

 

[CARIIS]

I remember Ike like yesterday Bootsctr, so much destruction along the coast, power out for weeks in many areas, one of my worst memories though was the night it came in, the screaming wind for hours on end, there's just nothing (and nothing good) like the sound of a hurricane as it passes over you. Rita was the same way even though it was further away, unearthly screeching all night long.

Ike in the panhandle was unreal . I remember one day on talk radio a caller from the area called in - it was 6 weeks later and he just got his power back that day

 

[CARIIS]

Are you going to be evacuating?

I just saw that they did issue mandatory evacs not sure where

He is gonna lose his steering currents and stall - and may go back out and restart

MSNBC

Reminds me of Allison she was a nothing and then bam

Tropical Storm Allison was a tropical storm that devastated southeast Texas in June of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. An arguable example of the "brown ocean effect", Allison lasted unusually long for a June storm, remaining tropical or subtropical for 15 days, most of them over land dumping torrential rains. The storm developed from a tropical wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico on June 4, 2001, and struck the upper Texas coast shortly thereafter. It drifted northward through the state, turned back to the south, and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico. The storm continued to the east-northeast, made landfall on Louisiana, then moved across the southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic. Allison was the first storm since Tropical Storm Francesin 1998 to strike the northern Texas coastline.[SUP][1][/SUP]
The storm dropped heavy rainfall along its path, peaking at over 40 inches (1,000 mm) in Texas.

 

[CARIIS]

Tid bits

Stay safe guys

Here is his barometric pressure lower means intensifying

now at 971

MSNBC

just for some notions

Rita 895

Katrina 902

Wilma lowest ever 882

Ivan 910

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#By_pressure

Here are current water temps

basic rule is 80 is when they start. He has got lots of hot water to go over before landfall which intensifies him. Hot water is gas for hurricanes .

Tight eye means stuff -- Andrew was super tight eye.

What the eye does is come and go. Does its thing then kinda fades and then starts to reform . Eyewall replacement cycles:

Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

He should do some of these before landfall , and every time he reforms if it gets real tight that means the 12-3 part is really intense.

We should see some shots of the eye changing tomm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/rtofs/rtofs_sst_gulf.html

here is water currents

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/rtofs/rtofs_current_gulf.html

Storm surge model

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032942.shtml?inundation

I am Fl they are interesting to track

if ya do it like a clock 12-3 is the meanest in terms of winds. Casue they are wrapping around plus moving inward so you get the forward movement of the entire system (landfalling) plus right at 12 o clock is when the winds are tightly wrapped about the eye-and sweeping around

That part generally is also really bad for storm surge cause water is piling up.

Here are the tracking models . Some have better history than others but they use all of em and try to play around with them to get the one that gets broadcast

The European one is the best!


http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al092017.png

 

[gregjrichards]

Thinking of all of you who are affected please stay safe and keep us updated how you are.

 

[LaLaw2000]

I have 7+ family members in Texas from Dallas, to Ft. Hood, to North Houston, to Victoria. One of my brothers has a condo on South Padre Island, and my sister has a condo in Galveston. They use the condos as vacation homes.

None of my family in Texas are evacuating. They have drinks every night so I suppose that helps! If the electric goes out they just have a gigantic neighborhood Texas barbecue with everyone bringing the meats they have in the freezer.

Everyone in my family think they are all 10ft. tall and bullet proof. They are not 'sceered' of anything! That is why I am sitting here in Louisiana saying prayers for all of them!

Seriously, everyone in Texas and later in Louisiana please take care and be safe.

 

[CARIIS]

New Orleans is bothersome. I followed it when a bunch of em failed and they had some issues .

But then really he did not blow up until today so they probably did not get the urgency of getting of going again.

A couple of days last week they had some serious concerns about a couple or areas just with rain

The daunting forecast comes just weeks after strong storms [video]http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/09/us/new-orleans-flood-fallout/index.html[/video], leading to flooding at a couple hundred properties and exposing critical deficiencies among 100 large pumps that drain many neighborhoods.
Days later, a key turbine that helps generate an uncommon frequency of electricity needed run the city's oldest, most powerful pumps caught fire, [video=cnn;weather/2017/08/11/new-orleans-state-of-emergency-flooding-dnt.hln]http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/us/new-orleans-flooding-by-the-numbers/index.html[/video].

While some repairs have been completed, "we remain in a state of diminished draining capacity until more of our turbines and pumps are fully restored," Mayor Mitch Landrieu said Thursday morning. "We're in a more vulnerable space than we should be in. ... We're getting a threat at a time when we're not in our strongest position."

Poor NO they have been doing fine and the timing of this is just a drag

[video]http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/24/us/new-orleans-harvey-flooding/index.html[/video]

 

[CARIIS]

My dear friends live in McAllen. Any updates there? I know they don't want me to worry so it is hard to get a straight answer.

Where is that like related to known places !

 

[DeDee]

Hurricane Harvey Rainfall Poses Danger to Ill-Prepared New Orleans

As a major hurricane churns in the Gulf of Mexico, New Orleans is facing the biggest threat to public safety since Katrina ravaged the city 12 years ago. With a large number of pumps and turbines out of service, it is not clear if the city is ready for Hurricane Harvey, and the city is studying emergency evacuation plans.

Three of the five power turbines that power the 120 pumps that are supposed to keep the low-lying city from being swamped by rainwater are not working. And 15 of those pumps were offline because of repairs.

Earlier this month, substantial rainfall caused the Lakeview and Mid-City neighborhoods to flood, soaking some areas in knee-deep water because the city’s pump and drainage systems were not at full capacity. Harvey is expected to pour another five to 10 inches of rain on the city.

I have family in Houston and NOLA. The Houston family evacuated today.

The burden of correcting the nonfunctional pumps and turbines was placed on NOLAs Deputy Director of the New Orleans Sewerage and Water Board, Robert Miller, so he's been fired. Miller neglected to clean out the silted storm drains that were already scheduled to have been repaired. Hence, many parts of the area flooded. The City of New Orleans spent $3mm to remove a few statues instead of repairing drainage systems for the residents.
Due to the severe neglect by Miller and the board, Lakeview is vulnerable to heavy flooding. Lakeview is a charming, newer neighborhood constructed since Katrina.
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/lakeview_top_priority_in_new_o.html

A 14-inch diameter pump capable of pumping 1,000 cubic feet of water per second (cf/s) was repaired at Pumping Station No. 6, bringing the capacity at the massive station on the 17th Street canal up to 5,200 cf/s. But five of its fifteen pumps remain down, including three major ones.
A total of 15 pumps are still under repair.

http://wjtv.com/2017/08/17/new-orleans-official-to-fill-jackson-public-works-director-job/

 

[deedee21]

Gosh! Be safe everyone! Ike hit in September of 2008. We had lots of rain and wind from Ike! It's peak hummingbird season. They are sucking my feeders dry every day getting ready to migrate this fall. Wind from Ike blew my feeders sideways and the hummers really had to fight the wind to feed. Thinking of you Tricia and geevee!

Where would hummingbirds take refuge in this type if weather.
I hope pet owners use their brains this time around.

 

[deedee21]

I have 7+ family members in Texas from Dallas, to Ft. Hood, to North Houston, to Victoria. One of my brothers has a condo on South Padre Island, and my sister has a condo in Galveston. They use the condos as vacation homes.

None of my family in Texas are evacuating. They have drinks every night so I suppose that helps! If the electric goes out they just have a gigantic neighborhood Texas barbecue with everyone bringing the meats they have in the freezer.

Everyone in my family think they are all 10ft. tall and bullet proof. They are not 'sceered' of anything! That is why I am sitting here in Louisiana saying prayers for all of them!

Seriously, everyone in Texas and later in Louisiana please take care and be safe.

Is your brother and sister currently in their vacation homes?

 

[skibaboo]

Be safe everyone!

 

[LaLaw2000]

Is your brother and sister currently in their vacation homes?

No, they are not and were fortunate enough to have neighbors in South Padre Island and Galveston see to shuttering their condo's.

My sister lives in North Houston off of FM1960 in Champions Forrest. She didn't leave her home when downtown Houston flooded last time. She is older and very stubborn.

One of my brothers lives in Victoria and is not leaving. The other family members are far enough from the coast that flooding will be the only issue. I still worry regardless.

 

[LaLaw2000]

Special prayers for everyone in harms way and special prayers for the city of New Orleans as well.

 

[BigFatMommyDog]

Good Morning! And welcome to Corpus Christi!

Well, Ive always heard that you know the stuff is going to hit the fan when Jim Cantore broadcasts live from your neighborhood... On the plus side, our little city sure looks pretty on TV! Just drizzling right now. It looks like tonite we will get the brunt. I'll check in now and then but who knows how long we will have comms here. Anyway. Keep us in your thoughts:cowcouch:

 

[Spellbound]

No - sigh. We are barely inland and a touch (and I do mean a touch) south of the expected landfall (prayers to Rockport and Aransas Pass please), but our land is on high ground. We may be sorry, but are riding it out. We are NOT under evacuation orders. But we will be impacted - and may be sorry. Keep an eye on that thing, we will be. Thanks for your thoughts ( it's actually very agreeable now - hot, but we always are this time of year)

I sure hope you didn't make a wrong decision by staying. I will be keeping an eye out for you to check in occasionally. Be safe!

I have 7+ family members in Texas from Dallas, to Ft. Hood, to North Houston, to Victoria. One of my brothers has a condo on South Padre Island, and my sister has a condo in Galveston. They use the condos as vacation homes.

None of my family in Texas are evacuating. They have drinks every night so I suppose that helps! If the electric goes out they just have a gigantic neighborhood Texas barbecue with everyone bringing the meats they have in the freezer.

Everyone in my family think they are all 10ft. tall and bullet proof. They are not 'sceered' of anything! That is why I am sitting here in Louisiana saying prayers for all of them!

Seriously, everyone in Texas and later in Louisiana please take care and be safe.

No, they are not and were fortunate enough to have neighbors in South Padre Island and Galveston see to shuttering their condo's.

My sister lives in North Houston off of FM1960 in Champions Forrest. She didn't leave her home when downtown Houston flooded last time. She is older and very stubborn.

One of my brothers lives in Victoria and is not leaving. The other family members are far enough from the coast that flooding will be the only issue. I still worry regardless.

LaLaw .... stubborn can be a good trait in some instances, but I don't know if this is the time to be stubborn. Sure hope your family all stays safe. Even flooding can be a dangerous and horrible condition to endure. praying for everyone's safety at this scary time. Keep us posted.

 

[CARIIS]

Good Morning! And welcome to Corpus Christi!

Well, Ive always heard that you know the stuff is going to hit the fan when Jim Cantore broadcasts live from your neighborhood... On the plus side, our little city sure looks pretty on TV! Just drizzling right now. It looks like tonite we will get the brunt. I'll check in now and then but who knows how long we will have comms here. Anyway. Keep us in your thoughts:cowcouch:

Native Fl here! Just an idea I would use. I would have started yesterday but it blew up so fast

Take zip lock bags (gallon) fill with water freeze. You end up with huge blocks of ice! They melt much slower, and keep stuff in thier colder and give you drinking water.

No heavy lifting bottled water. Free! Once the ones in the freezer are rock hard move down to refridge fill more and freeze. In the fridge they keep that stuff cold too!

SO ya got ice, water, no money .

just an idea huge blocks of ice melt a lot slower that regular ice and if needed can use a bag after it melts for a shower doggie bowl toilet flsuh etc etc

stay safe and start freezing giant gallon bags of ziplocks!!

If ya got really big like a garage freezer go nuts ! make a crazy amount of them ! nothing to lose much to gain

 

[Bravo]

Great idea CARIIS. Good to see you. Please stay safe all in the path.

 

[geevee]

Good Morning! And welcome to Corpus Christi!

Well, Ive always heard that you know the stuff is going to hit the fan when Jim Cantore broadcasts live from your neighborhood... On the plus side, our little city sure looks pretty on TV! Just drizzling right now. It looks like tonite we will get the brunt. I'll check in now and then but who knows how long we will have comms here. Anyway. Keep us in your thoughts:cowcouch:

Good luck BFMD - this storm is so big and expected to move so slowly, I hope everything will be alright for you and yours. The first large outer band is hitting Houston this morning, just light rain in my area.