IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #12

[Anna1964]

I often see posts that rule out an option based on the risk that the perp is taking. These individuals have most likely have had a habit of risk-taking behaviors throughout their lives. Many of the more well-known cases of child abduction where the child was found and the perp charged and prosecuted (ie Amber Dubois, Victoria Stafford, Sandra Cantu, Adam Walsh, etc.) involved perps who took high risks by abducting children from public places and/or well traveled streets. They were just seconds away from being seen by a witness. Risk level does not seem to be a factor that seems to place highly in whether or not a child can or will be abducted.
Some children were abducted from their own homes with a family member sleeping in another room (ie Polly Klaas, Jessica Lundsford.) These were crimes of opportunity with high risk involved. IMO the question shouldn't be "why would he/she risk it?", but "how could it be done, considering the risks involved?"
How many cases of almost abductions have ended with the perp running away and never being caught or charged? I would imagine there are probably a lot of failed attempts before the perp actually succeeds at his/her crime.
These sickos don't think like a normal person "What if I get caught?" but think instead "How can I get away with this?."

:goodpost:

 

[Wishbone]

Again, not dismissing just following in my minds eye.

So he has a stun gun. Uses it on the girls.

One at a time obviously...so what does the other girl do when she sees her friend stunned?

Scream, most likely...but maybe not, if too surprised.

Then girl two gets stunned.

So the perp has two stunned girls lying on the path. How does he move them? Lyric was a heavy girl and a dead weight is difficult for anyone to budge.

So he manages to pick up Lyric and toss her over his shoulder...which still leaves one stunned little girl lying on the ground. How does he carry her?

Remember, TG was on that path at 12.20 and saw the bikes...no perp, no stunned girls, no nothing.

A taser won't necessarily lay you out on the ground, expecially the ones that most civilians buy. If you zap one little girl you most likely won't have to use it on the second child as they will be very afraid. In fact, you may not have to use the weapon at all because some of them would appear very scary to little kids. Then there is always the threat of a knife or real gun that would subdue a child. Just too many ways to intimidate youngsters and oldsters for that matter.

 

[cindersoot]

How do we know there were no car tyre tracks?

tia.

We don't. But Im pretty sure if there were LE and FBI would of gotten tire impressions. That might tell them the make and model of a vehicle. Or what kind of tire.

 

[nikb]

How do we know there were no car tyre tracks?

tia.

I wondered that too. Ollipop said he saw some and took pictures. All just my own remembering, I haven't seen anything in the news.

ETA: I don't know if the tracks were in the same location being discussed. I just remember that he saw tracks.

 

[SK_Hunter]

Can't speak to that meat shop. But meat packer isn't a butcher. When I think of a butcher, it is a person who butchers an animal and then sells the meat all at the same site. Meat packing is much more like a factory where animals are slaughtered and then packed for transport elsewhere.

Would a "Packer" need a knowledge/skill of knives? Obtain knowledge/skill after becoming one?
How big do these "factories" tend to get would you say? I would imagine animal storage, meat locker, work area??

Locals, does K & W Sausage and Specialty Meats slaughter the animals at their location? Has a search of/near K & W Sausage and Specialty Meats been conducted as part of the neighborhood canvassing?

TIA.

 

[cindersoot]

I wondered that too. Ollipop said he saw some and took pictures. All just my own remembering, I haven't seen anything in the news.

Ollipop probally saw the LE tracks. Unless he was taking photos before the abduction.

 

[cluciano63]

I read an interesting quote from someone involved in investigations like these.

They said, essentially -

You don't start at left field with investigations like this, you start at home base and work out.

No one has ever gotten past home base in this situation.

No one who is considered MOST LIKELY (statistically) has actually been cleared.

:maddening:

But that is the case in so many of these current cases; Isabel, Ayla, Haleigh, Hailey, Lisa, etc...LE is hardly ever to clear the parents or families. It's like they can't rule out any scenarios in these cases. Here, at least they ruled out the lake. That is all, as far as we know.

 

[azuredewdrop]

I wondered that too. Ollipop said he saw some and took pictures. All just my own remembering, I haven't seen anything in the news.

I wonder how much the scene was disturbed by family, local LE/first responders in the initial 24 hours when they weren't looking at it like an abduction/crime scene but rather a "kids got lost/kids ran away/kids accidently drowned" scenario. :waitasec:

 

[GGE]

Me too! Non WS people just don't undertand....:floorlaugh:

WebSleuths: Excusing Homemakers From Housework Since 1999

 

[SK_Hunter]

My profile of this guy is he is local, lives near the lake, is in his 30's and married with kids. Has watched the girls ride their bikes on numerous times. Has fantasized about abducting them and planned it.

Funny you say this as I was just throwing some like this together myself. Apologize for any typos as it's unfinished.

Profile of UNSUB if Abduction

WM 34-38yrs old
Height: 5'10" & Under
Weight: Stocky to Overweight
Relationship: Married
Kids: 2+
Employment: Menial and Mobile
Transportation: Work vehicle, Wives or Relatives
Dominating Female Presence: Mother, Grandmother (Did not mention Wife as I believe he would be dominate in this position)
Proclivities: Young Females
Social Media: Yes, with lot's of young female "friends"
Personality: Abrasive, Moody, Mean.

Overall observation:

Unsub is living a menial existence. His employment is menial, his status in life is menial. Because of this the UNSUB has a very abrasive, moody and always mad appearance. Dominate and in control of his immediate household but submissive and subservient to his overall family. Mother, Aunts or Grandmother. Unsub has a proclivity towards young females. This would lead to an erratic if non existant, sexual relationship with his current partner, wife. The assumption is his wife is not a "young female". I believe the partner, wife, to be overweight and unattractive. This would further disgust and enrage the UNSUB, especially during time of sexual relations (if they occur at all). UNSUB would then seek out what he does not get/see at home. This would mean trolling for prostitutes or visting Strip Clubs and/or Massage parlors. This type of trolling will require long periods of "being away from family" time. Expect many "working late" or "got to go out of town for work unexpectedly" type of excuses. With this type of ingrained manifestation, the need for a fix is equivalent to a drug user. But this is only a fix and the UNSUB will need more. This UNSUB has made the crossover from "Don't touch" to "Touching" things. With this type of internal crossover, the UNSUB is now a danger to society, due to "Right" being subjugated by "Wrong". I believe the UNSUB has a "Sex Slave" fantasy, which would explain the reasoning behind abducting multiple victims. Would probably of mentioned "group sex" or "orgies" on multiple occasions around family, friends and with his partner/wife. He would also have a place to take or "house" these sex slaves. This is also why I believe the girls could still be alive.

Rough draft...IMO

 

[SapphireSteel]

A taser won't necessarily lay you out on the ground, expecially the ones that most civilians buy. If you zap one little girl you most likely won't have to use it on the second child as they will be very afraid. In fact, you may not have to use the weapon at all because some of them would appear very scary to little kids. Then there is always the threat of a knife or real gun that would subdue a child. Just too many ways to intimidate youngsters and oldsters for that matter.

Agreed, but I still can't get the stun gun scenario to make sense.

A perp wants a child, so goes out with a stun gun...but no vehicle?

He finds two children, on bikes.

He stuns both...how does he get them to stop for long enough?

Let's go with the "come and see my puppy" theory. The girls get off their bikes to see the puppy, he stuns them...then what?

How does he remove them both from the scene?

How likely is it an abductor would plan an abduction with no means to get his (stunned) victims away from the scene quickly?

 

[Simp]

I found this site through google.

Are you better today? I can't help but worry about you since your post yesterday.

 

[SapphireSteel]

The day I was at the lake was on a Sunday afternoon, nice out. I saw two old people walking on the west end of the trail, the creepy guy in the white van, and thats it. Keep in mind the girls were abducted during the week day. On Friday.

But you went AFTER the abduction right?

People would be keeping their kids away now.

On that Friday, the lake was full of people hanging out and relaxing.

 

[nikb]

Random question, no theory or suspicion behind it... do people have vacation homes on this lake? Or is it mostly residents who are there full time?

 

[GGE]

Are you thinking something happened to both girls accidently near the home and the bikes were a plant? Hard to think of anything being accidently related with both girls...except a drug overdose out of curiosity. I could see this at the Gma's house because of the occupants, but don't believe it could have happened at the Collin's house. Of course, unless LCM brought it with her.

I'm leaning towards something happening near the house and the bikes being left where they fell at that time, and some other kids riding off with them to the secluded part of the bike trail, where they felt they could take the time to stop and look through the purse. Finding nothing of value, they left the bikes there and tossed the purse over the fence and found some other mischief to get into. That mischief kept them from talking to police about anything that happened that day, because they already are known troublemakers.

All just conjecture on my part.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Funny you say this as I was just throwing some like this together myself. Apologize for any typos as it's unfinished.

Profile of UNSUB if Abduction

WM 34-38yrs old
Height: 5'10" & Under
Weight: Stocky to Overweight
Relationship: Married
Kids: 2+
Employment: Menial and Mobile
Transportation: Work vehicle, Wives or Relatives
Dominating Female Presence: Mother, Grandmother (Did not mention Wife as I believe he would be dominate in this position)
Proclivities: Young Females
Social Media: Yes, with lot's of young female "friends"
Personality: Abrasive, Moody, Mean.

Overall observation:

Unsub is living a menial existence. His employment is menial, his status in life is menial. Because of this the UNSUB has a very abrasive, moody and always mad appearance. Dominate and in control of his immediate household but submissive and subservient to his overall family. Mother, Aunts or Grandmother. Unsub has a proclivity towards young females. This would lead to an erratic if non existant, sexual relationship with his current partner, wife. The assumption is his wife is not a "young female". I believe the partner, wife, to be overweight and unattractive. This would further disgust and enrage the UNSUB, especially during time of sexual relations (if they occur at all). UNSUB would then seek out what he does not get/see at home. This would mean trolling for prostitutes or visting Strip Clubs and/or Massage parlors. With this type of ingrained manifestation, the need for a fix is equivalent to a drug user. But this is only a fix and the UNSUB will need more. I believe the UNSUB has a "Sex Slave" fantasy, which would explain the reasoning behind abducting multiple victims. Would probably of mentioned "group sex" or "orgies" on multiple occasions around family, friends and with his partner/wife.He would also have a place to take or "house" these sex slaves. This is also why I believe the girls could still be alive.

Rough draft...IMO

What did you base the height/weight estimate on?

Tia.

 

[cindersoot]

Funny you say this as I was just throwing some like this together myself. Apologize for any typos as it's unfinished.

Profile of UNSUB if Abduction

WM 34-38yrs old
Height: 5'10" & Under
Weight: Stocky to Overweight
Relationship: Married
Kids: 2+
Employment: Menial and Mobile
Transportation: Work vehicle, Wives or Relatives
Dominating Female Presence: Mother, Grandmother (Did not mention Wife as I believe he would be dominate in this position)
Proclivities: Young Females
Social Media: Yes, with lot's of young female "friends"
Personality: Abrasive, Moody, Mean.

Overall observation:

Unsub is living a menial existence. His employment is menial, his status in life is menial. Because of this the UNSUB has a very abrasive, moody and always mad appearance. Dominate and in control of his immediate household but submissive and subservient to his overall family. Mother, Aunts or Grandmother. Unsub has a proclivity towards young females. This would lead to an erratic if non existant, sexual relationship with his current partner, wife. The assumption is his wife is not a "young female". I believe the partner, wife, to be overweight and unattractive. This would further disgust and enrage the UNSUB, especially during time of sexual relations (if they occur at all). UNSUB would then seek out what he does not get/see at home. This would mean trolling for prostitutes or visting Strip Clubs and/or Massage parlors. With this type of ingrained manifestation, the need for a fix is equivalent to a drug user. But this is only a fix and the UNSUB will need more. I believe the UNSUB has a "Sex Slave" fantasy, which would explain the reasoning behind abducting multiple victims. Would probably of mentioned "group sex" or "orgies" on multiple occasions around family, friends and with his partner/wife.He would also have a place to take or "house" these sex slaves. This is also why I believe the girls could still be alive.

Rough draft...IMO

Wow. Thats about what I think.

 

[cindersoot]

Are you better today? I can't help but worry about you since your post yesterday.

What happened?

 

[GrainneDhu]

The empty house across the lake, the paddle boat that the neighbor thought someone used. The neighbor might have been gone that day, or he would see someone messing with their boat. And the dogs losing the scent at the waters edge. The purse on the shore lake side of fence.

The dog evidence of the girls at the edge of the water comes from Aunt TB. When I read the Nancy Grace transcript, it was not at all clear to me that she meant the dogs followed scent to the water's edge. I think she was identifying the spot along the lakeside fence where the dogs first picked up scent.

The lake angles towards and away from the fence; the little rock jetty is at the point where the water is closest.

Sandy Breault was much more clear when she said they had evidence from the dogs that led into the wooded area. No mention of the lake edge at all.

 

[SK_Hunter]

How do you think he did it?

Physically, I mean, with no one seeing or hearing a thing?

The "Bump and Run" method seems to be the MO dujour. See Shunick case.

Vehicle knocks Lyric off bike. Driver gets out. Offers to take Lyric to the hospital and Elizabeth goes along for the ride. UNSUB says he doesnt have enough room for the bikes. Says the bikes will be safe here and leaves them where they are found.....

BTW: Did the bikes have any sign of damage?