IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #13

[sreshowtime]

ditto Sunlight on the work /service vans...I was concerned as to customers of the Big & Tall shop- they sell safety shoes too- someone do a little shopping that day or week? Around lunchtime?

I wonder too that the perp(s) is someone, one or both girls knew or were a little familiar with.
Grr i am so tired of these innocent children seemingly disappearing into thin air

 

[ROM828]

Off Topic well sorta--Sorry but wondering how many people are trying to multitask on this sight and watch the Olympics at same time . Just have to keep rewinding to see whats going on This has been the strangest way to watch the Olympics ever. Its like my Computer and the Olympics are competing with each other ! :-0

one word....DVR

 

[Copper]

Yes, I think you are exactly right. I'm not discounting any of the witnesses, and I can make it work.

They leave at 12:11-ish on a mission to meet their "friend." They ride down Evans, turn and ride by Mr. Carpenter's house, then pass the sewage lift station driveway on Arbutus where the perp is hiding. He sees them, so he walks out the other end (Maiden Lane, and along the fence). He is there waiting when the girls approach. He strikes up a conversation and lures them into the woods. TG comes along and swerves to miss their bikes, on the blind curve, as he described it, which is NOT the gate.

The perp subdues the girls in his vehicle in the woods (handcuffs, chloroform, whatever), then realizes that the bikes left where they are will point LE in the direction of the woods. He wants to put a little distance between the abduction location and the bikes. So he walks them down to the gate. There is no risk of being seen from the other side of the lake, because this section is obscured. If someone comes along, he will just smile and say, "hey, my daughter left her bike here," and nobody would ever suspect an abduction!! He thinks leaving them at the gate will make it look like the girls went into the lake and buy him time, which it does!

He returns to the car, and drives away.

LE denies the existence of TG (three times) because they don't want to reveal to the perp that they know the bikes were moved.

This has to be just killing TG that he was within feet of the girls and could have saved them, if he had only known.

If I'm reading this right, then you're saying the girls took Evans almost all the way to the lake, but decided to turn east on Gilbert and then south on Lake? Anyone know why they'd do that? All I can think of is that the perp lives on Lake Avenue.

 

[SapphireSteel]

If I'm reading this right, then you're saying the girls took Evans almost all the way to the lake, but decided to turn east on Gilbert and then south on Lake? Anyone know why they'd do that? All I can think of is that the perp lives on Lake Avenue.

No big mystery, it's just the most direct route to where the bikes were found.

 

[roseofsharon]

If I'm reading this right, then you're saying the girls took Evans almost all the way to the lake, but decided to turn east on Gilbert and then south on Lake? Anyone know why they'd do that? All I can think of is that the perp lives on Lake Avenue.

Couldn't the perp have also lived on Arbutus or South Evans near Maiden Lane.

Just MOO

 

[Copper]

Looking at maps.google.com, Evans runs south all the way to the lake where it has to slant east and then turns fully east to become Arbutus and goes by the sewage list station.

If they are going directly to the lake as fast as they can, why would they turn onto Gilbert, go a block east and then turn back south on Lake? It wouldn't get them to the lake any faster.

 

[gregjrichards]

Sorry if this has already been posted but thankfully the Iowa state fair has backed down and allowed a booth with information about Elizabeth and Lyric's disappearance.

http://thegazette.com/2012/08/07/iowa-state-fair-booth-to-feature-information-on-missing-girls/

I sincerely hope that adults at the fair ensure the safety of the children present and the children are not put in any danger. The state fair is an ideal place for a child to be abducted and I hope parents and law enforcement are vigilant of suspicious behaviour.

 

[cluciano63]

And yet the need for a booth at the fair makes me discouraged...does LE really not have a suspect? And if not, how could they have dared to proclaim they believed the girls were alive in the way that they did?

 

[Snufamonbobball]

And yet the need for a booth at the fair makes me discouraged...does LE really not have a suspect? And if not, how could they have dared to proclaim they believed the girls were alive in the way that they did?

MOO, LE will never say anything other than the girls are alive until a time which FORENSIC evidence says otherwise. Elizabeth Smart is the prime example, people may have discounted the sightings if LE had said she was dead.

I wish the booth at the fair wasn't in the hall of law. I really can't see someone wanting to remain anonymous leaving a tip in the DCI's tip box, surrounded by LE, inside the hall of law.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Looking at maps.google.com, Evans runs south all the way to the lake where it has to slant east and then turns fully east to become Arbutus and goes by the sewage list station.

If they are going directly to the lake as fast as they can, why would they turn east on Gilbert, go a block east and then turn south again on Lake? It wouldn't get them to the lake any faster.

It is the quietest route...the other road is a bit wider no doubt a bit faster as well.

Further, it is the usual route the girls took, according to Mr Carpenter. He said he saw them all the time.

I used to bike around as a kid and I'd choose routes based on houses I liked, or bits of road that were fun to bike over...but that route actually is more as the crow would fly, anyway, if you consider where the bikes were found.

Plus, we know Lizzie at least was a "friendly little girl" according to Mr C, and the Evans Rd way doesn't have as many houses, which means fewer people to stop and chat to. She at least would naturally take the more built up route.

of course, merely opinion.



:moo:

 

[SapphireSteel]

And yet the need for a booth at the fair makes me discouraged...does LE really not have a suspect? And if not, how could they have dared to proclaim they believed the girls were alive in the way that they did?

They may think someone who's scared to go to the police station, will call in to the booth.

lease:

 

[sreshowtime]

Mr Carpenter lives on the corner so the girls didn't necessarily have to turn on to Lake....I do not know if he has ever said they did turn or if they were seen on Gilbert

 

[Bootsctr]

Yes, I think you are exactly right. I'm not discounting any of the witnesses, and I can make it work.

They leave at 12:11-ish on a mission to meet their "friend." They ride down Evans, turn and ride by Mr. Carpenter's house, then pass the sewage lift station driveway on Arbutus where the perp is hiding. He sees them, so he walks out the other end (Maiden Lane, and along the fence). He is there waiting when the girls approach. He strikes up a conversation and lures them into the woods. TG comes along and swerves to miss their bikes, on the blind curve, as he described it, which is NOT the gate.

The perp subdues the girls in his vehicle in the woods (handcuffs, chloroform, whatever), then realizes that the bikes left where they are will point LE in the direction of the woods. He wants to put a little distance between the abduction location and the bikes. So he walks them down to the gate. There is no risk of being seen from the other side of the lake, because this section is obscured. If someone comes along, he will just smile and say, "hey, my daughter left her bike here," and nobody would ever suspect an abduction!! He thinks leaving them at the gate will make it look like the girls went into the lake and buy him time, which it does!

He returns to the car, and drives away.

LE denies the existence of TG (three times) because they don't want to reveal to the perp that they know the bikes were moved.

This has to be just killing TG that he was within feet of the girls and could have saved them, if he had only known.

^^^^^:yesss: What Southern Mom and JaimeinLA say!!

 

[cluciano63]

MOO, LE will never say anything other than the girls are alive until a time which FORENSIC evidence says otherwise. Elizabeth Smart is the prime example, people may have discounted the sightings if LE had said she was dead.

I wish the booth at the fair wasn't in the hall of law. I really can't see someone wanting to remain anonymous leaving a tip in the DCI's tip box, surrounded by LE, inside the hall of law.

But they spoke in a very different way, saying they had evidence to show they were alive. That is NOT the same as saying they have no reason to believe they are not alive, which is what LE usually says. I am having a hard time buying that they have such evidence, here it is a month later. If they ever did, it did not pan out and they spoke with too much confidence too soon.

 

[CHERIE.T]

BBM

Hmmm. Totally not meaning to sound snarky (honest ) but do you have a reference for that statistic ?

Clint Van Zant, profiler

 

[Copper]

Mr Carpenter lives on the corner so the girls didn't necessarily have to turn on to Lake....I do not know if he has ever said they did turn or if they were seen on Gilbert

That makes more sense. If they don't turn south on Lake, they're probably taking Gilbert to where it crosses the bike trail.

 

[SeeMamaRun]

I just can't get these girls out of my head. I seem to be spinning in circles with different theories and just when I think I have one that fits, I find some reason why it might not work.

My thoughts right now:

I do believe the girls were at the lake voluntarily and not for the first time.

I do not believe TG saw the girls' bikes - imo it doesn't fit LE's timeline

I do not believe the abduction was random or in anyway related to the "white van abduction attempts" we've been seeing in Iowa (most of which are fake!)

I want to believe that the girls are alive but it's getting harder & harder

I guess I'm just holding out hope that LE/FBI knows more than they're telling us & this case will break soon.

Praying and praying for L & E to come home but I don't think I have the capacity to solve this mystery!

 

[Bootsctr]

Yes, I think you are exactly right. I'm not discounting any of the witnesses, and I can make it work.

They leave at 12:11-ish on a mission to meet their "friend." They ride down Evans, turn and ride by Mr. Carpenter's house, then pass the sewage lift station driveway on Arbutus where the perp is hiding. He sees them, so he walks out the other end (Maiden Lane, and along the fence). He is there waiting when the girls approach. He strikes up a conversation and lures them into the woods. TG comes along and swerves to miss their bikes, on the blind curve, as he described it, which is NOT the gate.

The perp subdues the girls in his vehicle in the woods (handcuffs, chloroform, whatever), then realizes that the bikes left where they are will point LE in the direction of the woods. He wants to put a little distance between the abduction location and the bikes. So he walks them down to the gate. There is no risk of being seen from the other side of the lake, because this section is obscured. If someone comes along, he will just smile and say, "hey, my daughter left her bike here," and nobody would ever suspect an abduction!! He thinks leaving them at the gate will make it look like the girls went into the lake and buy him time, which it does!

He returns to the car, and drives away.

LE denies the existence of TG (three times) because they don't want to reveal to the perp that they know the bikes were moved.

This has to be just killing TG that he was within feet of the girls and could have saved them, if he had only known.

But they spoke in a very different way, saying they had evidence to show they were alive. That is NOT the same as saying they have no reason to believe they are not alive, which is what LE usually says. I am having a hard time buying that they have such evidence, here it is a month later. If they ever did, it did not pan out and they spoke with too much confidence too soon.

I don't LE or FBI will ever come and say they do not believe the girls to be alive simply because of Jaycee Dugard, Elizabeth Smart and Shawn Hornbeck. There may be others that I am not familiar with, but until bodies are found there is always the chance they could be alive and family members will cling to that chance if they are innocent. I don't believe Jaycee Dugard's mother ever gave up on Jaycee being alive nor the Smart family on Elizabeth.

 

[CHERIE.T]

Yes, I think you are exactly right. I'm not discounting any of the witnesses, and I can make it work.

They leave at 12:11-ish on a mission to meet their "friend." They ride down Evans, turn and ride by Mr. Carpenter's house, then pass the sewage lift station driveway on Arbutus where the perp is hiding. He sees them, so he walks out the other end (Maiden Lane, and along the fence). He is there waiting when the girls approach. He strikes up a conversation and lures them into the woods. TG comes along and swerves to miss their bikes, on the blind curve, as he described it, which is NOT the gate.

The perp subdues the girls in his vehicle in the woods (handcuffs, chloroform, whatever), then realizes that the bikes left where they are will point LE in the direction of the woods. He wants to put a little distance between the abduction location and the bikes. So he walks them down to the gate. There is no risk of being seen from the other side of the lake, because this section is obscured. If someone comes along, he will just smile and say, "hey, my daughter left her bike here," and nobody would ever suspect an abduction!! He thinks leaving them at the gate will make it look like the girls went into the lake and buy him time, which it does!

He returns to the car, and drives away.

LE denies the existence of TG (three times) because they don't want to reveal to the perp that they know the bikes were moved.

This has to be just killing TG that he was within feet of the girls and could have saved them, if he had only known.

Hugh assumption about TG. Your also assuming your theory is true.
No girls found yet .
No poi.
No presser.
No arrest.
Points to LE HAVING NOTHING. Imhoo

 

[MNDad]

I totally agree! I personally discount TG's statement. I threw his statement out of the scenerio before the second video was released. If I didn't throw him out of the timeline then I have him and the girls at the exact same spot at the same time, within mere moments. That does not work for me. And now that the second video has the girls by Elizabeth's home @ 12:19, it definately doesn't work at all.

Only one video has been released. The debate is over the actual time of the video. Date/time stamp says 12:11. Mr. P says slow by 8 minutes.