IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #16

[LaylaD]

I think one thing we can all agree on is that whoever took them is either extremely well organized and detail oriented or one of the luckiest people alive. Things have just fallen into place too neatly with almost no evidence or witnesses.

(Snipped for length)

Assuming that all known 'players' are what they appear to be, I could see someone giving them directions to follow that would take them past Mr. C , who sounds like he waters his lawn pretty regularly, and then to the area where the bikes were found.

Great post. The only question/ concern I have with your scenario is that Mr./Mrs. C's statements of seeing the girls (or at least EC) on their street frequently doesn't fit with them asking for directions. Just MOO.

 

[nikb]

<snipped for space, and BBM> I think one thing we can all agree on is that whoever took them is either extremely well organized and detail oriented or one of the luckiest people alive. <snip>

I've come to the conclusion that the person/people is/are either trusted by at least one of the girls (and probably both) so they could get them to leave there willingly without making any kind of a scene or they live on the lake and put the bikes there in case someone had seen them at/near the lake. I can't really see any reason to stage the bikes in such an odd place with the possibility of any number of people passing by and seeing them before they were done if they were taken somewhere else. If taken close to home, especially considering the direction they were last seen riding, it seems like the river would have been a better place.

I definitely believe it was well-planned, and it seems like the only evidence that has been found may have been left there purposely to be found. The few things that are known just tend to make everything seem more confusing. Assuming that all known 'players' are what they appear to be, I could see someone giving them directions to follow that would take them past Mr. C , who sounds like he waters his lawn pretty regularly, and then to the area where the bikes were found. If TG is fairly regular about his riding (same days, approximately the same time), they could have either made sure the girls were there before he came by, or planted other bikes there for him to see and replaced them with the girls' bikes when they got there. The CCTV tape may be the one thing that wasn't expected, and did put a bit of a kink in an otherwise perfect setup.

<snip>

This is already getting too long. If people think I might be on the right track, or at least close to it, I can continue later.

I completely agree with you and bolded the stuff that really stands out to me. MOO.

 

[otto]

Please don't apologize! I think we have to think of all possibilities, and for some reason your idea about the girls helping some poor innocent person that hurt him- or her- self didn't really come to mind or at least didn't register before. I mentioned it several threads ago but even as a young adult I'm certain I was nearly grabbed by someone who was asking for directions and help reading a map. The map was way farther inside the car than it needed to be from the window and I was even a little hesitant. When the guy grabbed my arm I yanked it away and some unrelated people pulled into the parking lot so the guy took off. Even at the time my heart was pounding but I thought I was being over-cautious. (Oddly for my directionally challenged self something similar happened when I was a kid).

If someone was hurt and needed help? I'd have helped without giving it a second thought, even as a young girl.

Ted Bundy usually wore a fake cast or carried crutches when he asked young women for help. Then he murdered them.

 

[MotherOcean]

Just thinking.... why did LE stop at Mr. C's house to ask if they knew anything but not stop at Ollipop's house which is even closer to the lake? Is there a cctv at the PD/Fire Station on Gilbert & Evans? Maybe there were seen on video there.

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Very good question. Mr. C. said that LE was out talking to people in the neighborhood. I have tried to find out if there is a camera at the PD/Fire Station and haven't been able to find out for sure. I was hoping a local would eventually clue us in about that, but I think there had to be one or more. It could be that they are pointing towards S. Evans and not towards Gilbert.

It really does seem like there should be some other surveillance tape of the girls that day. It seems like whether they were on the streets the whole time or if they ended up on the nature trail that someone should have seen them. For some reason I just can't picture the bikes being staged. I can only see that being the case if someone who lives really close to the lake is the perp. (but that still wouldn't solve the problem of there being no additional tapes or witnesses, that we know of, because the distance would be almost as far anyways) or one other scenerio which I can't discuss.

 

[katydid23]

Respectfully, since none of us appear to be the kidnappers & LE isn't sharing much info I think everyone is just sharing their theories while anxiously waiting for news that both girls are found (hopefully safe but honestly the chances of that are dwindling each day).

IF by chance MCM's BF JW is related to these particular homeowners then he "might" have some inside info on when this house was going to be shown to prospective buyers. Since an appointment would likely be set up for the would-be buyer & realtor to meet it's possible the owners even knew of the appointment & others (????) might have been present or overheard the conversation. Six degrees of separation (Kevin Bacon) and all. So it's not too far fetched for others to know when the appointment(s) would be. Therefore the perpetrator would not have to worry about being caught in the act.

And we can't forget DM was found under the porch of an abandoned/empty house in the area when he was arrested for drugs. Was it on the market when this happened? I can't remember. I know it there was a video of the house w/ creepy music on youtube but was it a realtor's video to help sell the house? (Just thinking while typing, not really asking a ?)

I am just saying people on drugs do not worry so much about getting caught because they are not thinking about consequences anyway.

I am NOT implying it was DM or JW who kidnapped the girls just trying to explain why myself & others have questions about "the house".

And let me add to that, there was also previous speculation that JW was introduced to Misty by Aunt Tammy. Apparently Aunt T. was a long time family friend of JW. So her 'gut feeling' of where to instantly find the girls would work well with this hypothetical as well...:angel:

 

[Marilynilpa]

Just thinking.... why did LE stop at Mr. C's house to ask if they knew anything but not stop at Ollipop's house which is even closer to the lake? Is there a cctv at the PD/Fire Station on Gilbert & Evans? Maybe there were seen on video there.

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This is something I have been wondering about, too. What led LE to canvass Mr. C's neighborhood, but ignore Ollipop's neighborhood?:what:

 

[nikb]

Ted Bundy usually wore a fake cast or carried crutches when he asked young women for help. Then he murdered them.

The crazy thing is I REMEMBER that from watching the movie as a teenager and I still didn't think about it. I can't even imagine the thousands of kinds of "stranger danger" parents have to try to teach kids about while still trying to teach them compassion and kindness to others.

 

[hambirg]

Okey-dokey, I think it is quite likely that the girls traveled the route on this map:

http://goo.gl/maps/XmXNe


I think they traveled to the west end of Brovan where they then headed north on River Road. They could have taken a right onto Lafayette at the corner or they could have cut through the parking lots of the businesses there on the south side of Lafayette. I think it's most likely that they cut through the parking lots from somewhere right around the corner of River Road/Lafayette and traveled to S. Evans right near the west side of First Security State Bank where they then headed south. I think one reason that they may have then turned south on S. Evans right there rather than going further down on Lafayette is because the parking lots from the bank on towards the east are broken up with patches of grass, so they may have been harder to ride the bikes on. Before that point, it looks like they would have been able to stay in parking lots and wouldn't have had to get right on the road. I think they were headed towards Evansdale Nature Trail and so, once on S. Evans, they went one block to Morrell Ave. where they began to travel east until they hit the trail. If Mr. C's statement about seeing them is accurate, and if it was Lake Ave. that he was referring to when he said that he saw them ride past his house, then that would mean that they took a right at the skateboard park that is at the corner of Gilbert and the nature trail. I believe they did that, rode to Lake Ave. where they turned and began to travel south until they got to S. Evans. (However, it is possible that they continued on Gilbert past the front of Mr. C's house and then turned south on S. Evans.) At that point, they may have turned (or run into, if they were on S. Evans already due to turning there from Gilbert, rather than on Lake Ave.) onto Arbutus and gone to just right there where the grassy area is located. I believe it was Ollipop who said that they could have cut through that patch of grass in less than 30 seconds and been on the trail again. I think they headed west on the trail past the wooded area there and into the area that is fenced on both sides where they stopped for some reason. This map would give them a travel time of around ten minutes from the CCTV to the gate at the jetty.

This is just one of many maps that I've made as I've tried to determine what route I think they took to the lake. There are, of course, many possible routes. When I first heard of Lyric & Elizabeth's case, I found Hollye's map, and I assumed that they took the nature trail but then I began to read here and saw that there are many ways that they could have gone. But, now I've gone back to my original thoughts and this is the way that I think they most likely traveled.

I think that even if the girls were taped at 12:11, and not at 12:19, that they still would not have been at the gate area of the trail in time for Mr. TG to see them. If the clock was actually a little fast and they were there at the camera a few minutes before 12:11 they may have possibly made it there in time for an "around 12:20" sighting but I personally do not think that is feasible. It's just too close for me to comprehend.

:moo:

MOO, of course.

BBM

I don't think that's possible. They would have passed a gas station, Lederman's, another strip mall and some small quicky mart type place. Take the little yellow Google man for a walk on the map. . .too many cameras.

MOO

 

[hambirg]

I think one thing we can all agree on is that whoever took them is either extremely well organized and detail oriented or one of the luckiest people alive. Things have just fallen into place too neatly with almost no evidence or witnesses.

I've come to the conclusion that the person/people is/are either trusted by at least one of the girls (and probably both) so they could get them to leave there willingly without making any kind of a scene or they live on the lake and put the bikes there in case someone had seen them at/near the lake. I can't really see any reason to stage the bikes in such an odd place with the possibility of any number of people passing by and seeing them before they were done if they were taken somewhere else. If taken close to home, especially considering the direction they were last seen riding, it seems like the river would have been a better place.

I definitely believe it was well-planned, and it seems like the only evidence that has been found may have been left there purposely to be found. The few things that are known just tend to make everything seem more confusing. Assuming that all known 'players' are what they appear to be, I could see someone giving them directions to follow that would take them past Mr. C , who sounds like he waters his lawn pretty regularly, and then to the area where the bikes were found. If TG is fairly regular about his riding (same days, approximately the same time), they could have either made sure the girls were there before he came by, or planted other bikes there for him to see and replaced them with the girls' bikes when they got there. The CCTV tape may be the one thing that wasn't expected, and did put a bit of a kink in an otherwise perfect setup.

I have no idea who it would be or why it was done, so I'd have to guess it was for the one reason we'd all prefer it not be. The type of person I could see it being would be an accountant, an architect, a computer programmer or graphics designer, sports coach, librarian, or others who have to pay attention to details in their work, or someone who suffers from extreme OCD and feels the need to be meticulous about everything in their lives - meals at a certain time, bed at the same time, car washed and maintained on a regular schedule, walk the dog at the same time every day, etc.

This is already getting too long. If people think I might be on the right track, or at least close to it, I can continue later.

BBM. . statistically speaking, it's roughly 3 times more likely for it to be a construction worker than anybody else (since the girls have been missing for more than a month.)

 

[Jules71]

If they truly do not have any other video of the girls that day - then they disappeared from close to home and the bikes were staged. I do not get the feeling this was a random perp.

ETA: For this to be true all 3 possible sightings have to be wrong. (Mr. C, TG, and 2:30 random stranger guy.)

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[Confusion]

Great post. The only question/ concern I have with your scenario is that Mr./Mrs. C's statements of seeing the girls (or at least EC) on their street frequently doesn't fit with them asking for directions. Just MOO.

I've had problems with that part of what they've said from the beginning. It was made to sound like both girls often rode their bikes down that way later in the day (she said evening, but to me that means late afternoon) although it was Elizabeth more than Lyric, but Lyric wasn't normally in Evansdale in the afternoons from the way WC talked. I do think she may have confused them with other girls, or actually saw them closer to home several times, and wanted to make sure people believed they knew who they saw. Not necessarily lying, but making it sound like they were more confident than they actually were.

BBM. . statistically speaking, it's roughly 3 times more likely for it to be a construction worker than anybody else (since the girls have been missing for more than a month.)

I think construction workers do have to pay attention to detail too, although that would be more those who built houses than those who worked on roads. But, even janitors can have obssessive-compulsive behaviors.

 

[MotherOcean]

BBM

I don't think that's possible. They would have passed a gas station, Lederman's, another strip mall and some small quicky mart type place. Take the little yellow Google man for a walk on the map. . .too many cameras.

MOO

Yes, there a lot of businesses along Lafayette. But, I don't know how many cameras are between River Rd./Lafayette and S. Evans/Lafayette. I know that WC has said that the girls like to ride their bikes to the post office but I can't remember if she said behind the post office or through the parking lot. I'm going to try to find that video of her speaking about it. The post office is near the corner of Lafayette and S. Evans. It would be great if we knew if the auction house had cameras pointing towards Lafayette and if so, exactly where they were pointing towards.

 

[hambirg]

If they truly do not have any other video of the girls that day - then they disappeared from close to home and the bikes were staged. I do not get the feeling this was a random perp.

ETA: For this to be true all 3 possible sightings have to be wrong. (Mr. C, TG, and 2:30 random stranger guy.)

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I just can't get past that! I think they had to be abducted close to Brovan.

Btw. . not all 3 sightings would have to be wrong. Only Mr C claimed to see the girls. The other two claimed to see only the bikes. I take that the FBI woman was correct about the 2:30 guy and that TB just mis-understood.

One more thing. . .why were the bikes staged at the lake and not the river? Idk. Maybe the perp was familiar with the lake but not the river, or maybe he thought it was a more secluded spot. I'm still thinking that he thought if he staged the bikes at the lake, and then later dumped the girls in the lake that LE would assume that they drown. Perfect crime, no? It's just didn't occur to him that LE would drain the lake.

 

[iamnotagolem]

I do not think the Cs are lying, I think they believe what they saw. But I've noticed with older people who are retired and have a similar schedule every day that their days blend together easily.

Especially by late afternoon they could have seen/done something that morning and thought it was the day before. Heck you dont even have to be old, I even do it.

It is super easy to remember vital details. I saw a missing person, but unfortunately for me I didn't know she was missing until hours after I saw her. I got home that night and my husband mentioned a missing person who was the sister of his friend on Facebook. I looked and instantly recognized her from earlier in the day. I had traveled through several towns that day and could picture her on the street walking on the left side of the street, even the clothes she was wearing, but I didn't know which town it was. I called the missing persons number and gave them my info. She was found later that night, but not in the town I had thought I'd seen her in it was one of the other towns I'd driven through that day.

 

[iamnotagolem]

I just can't get past that! I think they had to be abducted close to Brovan.

Btw. . not all 3 sightings would have to be wrong. Only Mr C claimed to see the girls. The other two claimed to see only the bikes. I take that the FBI woman was correct about the 2:30 guy and that TB just mis-understood.

One more thing. . .why were the bikes staged at the lake and not the river? Idk. Maybe the perp was familiar with the lake but not the river, or maybe he thought it was a more secluded spot. I'm still thinking that he thought if he staged the bikes at the lake, and then later dumped the girls in the lake that LE would assume that they drown. Perfect crime, no? It's just didn't occur to him that LE would drain the lake.

BBM, genius! I hadn't thought of that but it makes perfect sense. The girls could have talked to him and told him they weren't allowed to ride that far. He probably thought he could dump the bikes and have time to do his crime then bring the bodies back and dump them in the lake before the bikes were even found. He may have even thought he had way more time before they started looking, especially if routinely the girls were out riding their bikes later. But this day grandma had her appt.

 

[otto]

Where is the link that says where the bikes were found, the exact area?

Still catching up ... but if this hasn't yet been answered:

"The area where the bikes were found is fenced on both sides, and it is right where maintenance gate is it is a spot that looks to me like a trap," Dan Morrissey said. "Somebody could have just come along right then or followed them down it would have been the worst spot to be in right there."

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/07/17/fbi-dogs-join-search-for-missing-iowa-girls/

 

[hambirg]

BBM, genius! I hadn't thought of that but it makes perfect sense. The girls could have talked to him and told him they weren't allowed to ride that far. He probably thought he could dump the bikes and have time to do his crime then bring the bodies back and dump them in the lake before the bikes were even found. He may have even thought he had way more time before they started looking, especially if routinely the girls were out riding their bikes later. But this day grandma had her appt.

BBM

See, I hadn't even thought of that, but you're right! This might be especially true if he had been watching them for a few days. :what:

 

[TeenyTaurus]

BBM

I don't think that's possible. They would have passed a gas station, Lederman's, another strip mall and some small quicky mart type place. Take the little yellow Google man for a walk on the map. . .too many cameras.

MOO

In a small town especially, it is very possible that LE didn't even go to look for video until Mr. Pahl contacted the FBI, and even then only after he, himself, took a chance and went over his tapes. That wasn't until Monday, July 16th (3 days later), and not all cameras retain video that long. That is also most likely why they didn't go to even the bank until after the auction house video. Also, looking that area over, a lot of the actual buildings are some distance from the roads/sidewalks, and may not have been in a camera's field of view. This is a small town, not a high crime area for the most part. It wouldn't surprise me, in fact, that some of the cameras on buildings... don't even work.

 

[Sunlight]

Still catching up ... but if this hasn't yet been answered:

"The area where the bikes were found is fenced on both sides, and it is right where maintenance gate is it is a spot that looks to me like a trap," Dan Morrissey said. "Somebody could have just come along right then or followed them down it would have been the worst spot to be in right there."

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/07/17/fbi-dogs-join-search-for-missing-iowa-girls/

Yup. He's right about that..that is what probably happened. MOO the "Somebody could have..." BBM

 

[TeenyTaurus]

As for staging the bikes and purse after abducting the girls closer to home, it actually DOES make sense to me, if planned, and such was to bide more time., as well as make it look as if the girls had ridden to Meyers Lake. The perp would assume that in the beginning, a search would be conducted by family, NOT LE, and such would be either in a limited area (if on foot) or basically restricted to vehicular roadways. Assuming it may take some time for that before LE was even contacted, then LE would concentrate more on the north part of town, around the family's residence, spreading out from there. Had it not been for Mr. Carpenter – who lives right across the street from the fire AND police department – being asked if he had seen the girls (maybe the Sheriff RC claims asked him wasn’t sure where the girls lived, so merely started at that area first?), the only OTHER sighting reported was from TG, riding along a pretty deserted trail. RC’s statement may then have “inspired” the volunteer fireman, on a bike, to ride around the lake. Just imagine if Mr. Carpenter had never been asked! Who knows how long it would have taken for those bikes to have been located at last.
I’m sorry, but staging those bikes, when I really thought about “alternate scenarios” and what LE stated in the beginning that they seemed “staged,” it’s rather… brilliant. Makes my blood run cold at that possible planning. People generally follow the “path of least resistance,” and thus following the trail, if you will, from the bikes and purse almost single-mindedly, stuck there, going around in circles. No sign of any struggle, “inconclusive” scent trail, zero eye witnesses to those girls anywhere around Meyers Lake. Dead end trail, just as planned. My gawd.