IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #17

[GrainneDhu]

Looking back at first thread...

Early morning the 14th it was reported they were last seen around 12:30:
http://www.radioiowa.com/2012/07/14/two-evansdale-girls-missing-since-early-friday-afternoon/

KWWL also reported late afternoon of the 14th they were last seen by their grandmother around 12:15.

Then at 5:45 pm the wfcourier says they were last seen at 12:15 behind Lederman's.

So Grandma did say they were last seen at 12:15 before the cctv came out. I had previously wondered if the cctv jogged her memory of the time - but it looks like she determined that time first.

I just don't get her getting worried 15 minutes after she saw them if they really did leave at 11:30 to ride bikes. They would have been gone for 45 minutes unseen already. Then she sees them at 12:15 and at 12:30 she is looking for them in her car. WHY? Did she see something out the window after they rode by that concerned her?

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

I think she'd been seeing them regularly as they played, maybe every 5-10 minutes. Then when it stretched out longer than usual, she started to grow concerned.

Kinda the same way smart parents get worried when the kids get quiet...

 

[nikb]

Does Aunt T work? How was she able to immediately arrive to help search for the girls?

I don't know of course, but I think most employers would make an exception for something like this. If she worked close by especially, and depending on type of work, someone might've said "go now! I'll cover your shift."

 

[GrainneDhu]

Wow... that's just amazing. Thank you for sharing.

I agree with you I think this was silent or at least quiet. The news clip made me think it might not've been, but I still think it was either someone they knew, or like you said they were terrified and went quietly.

Your story about the woman and child in the store was really inspiring. Thanks for sharing how you approach (or might approach) a situation like this. So many times I've felt like "I should do something!" but rarely know what to do. I guess I have a hard time knowing when to do something and when not to, as I'm sure a lot of people do. I never really thought about how a simple but empathetic comment could do so much.

BBM

As in so many things, the credit goes to my mama and the way she brought me up. I have no instinct or touch with people at all but I spent my whole life watching my mama interact with people. People trusted her instinctively and would tell her the most amazing things on the strength of a minute's acquaintance with her.

Going anywhere with her was like what I imagine being in the entourage of a celebrity would be like. People constantly approached her and talked to her. All I do is ask myself "what would Mom do now?" and it hasn't steered me wrong yet, even though I don't have her people knack.

Try getting into the habit of saying kind things to people who look a bit harried. It gives you experience in how to approach intervention if needed and it makes the world a better place to be.

 

[threecrazykids]

Very cool story! Thanks for sharing. And I must admit I'm :floorlaugh: a little bit. I hope your husband is into sleuthing and/or dog tracking too! I can imagine my husband humoring me but giving me the weirdest look if I said "Can you go walk where we don't usually go and rub up against some branches? I'm just going to shut the blinds so the dog doesn't see... we'll come look for you soon."

He was laughing at me, but agreed to do it just to humor me. He thinks I'm "obsessed" with trying to figure out this case - but completely understands considering we have a young daughter as well and it's way to close to home.

He just chuckled when I said "go hide in the acreage down the straight path from the gate and we will see if he can find you since we never go that way". He said right away..."I think you're underestimating what a dog's instinct and senses are capable of".

I also have to wonder...would he be able to do that with all of us or maybe just my husband because he's extremely close to him? Maybe have to test him on that one.:waitasec:

 

[threecrazykids]

Ain't it COOL??!!!

When you do things like that, it really brings home the fact that dogs perceive so much more of the environment than we humans do. To your dog, your husband was far from invisible. He had the scent equivalents of huge neon signs pointing out where he'd been and where he was.

You know, even if you feel you or your dog is too old or too whatever for SAR, there are other sports based on scentwork. The AKC has the tracking dog titles and then there is "Nosework" which is based on how dogs hunt areas for drugs or explosives.

I've done all three and it is way too much fun. It's like growing a mystical connection with a whole different world, being able to perceive the world in something the same way a dog does.

Come to the dark side, my friend... we have fun and we have brownies.

It was SO cool!:woohoo:

It makes sense to me what you say about the huge neon signs to the dog because like I said, he didn't even break stride...he went right to him.

Question for you (this is what baffles me) - How did the dog know to even track my husband? How did he know we were looking for him? THAT is what had me in all sorts of confusion. I guess I assumed that trained handlers give some sort of command that indicates we are "on the hunt" for a particular scent. I just took him out there to see what he would do. I didn't say "go find him" or "where is he" or anything like that...so what made him know the "game" was to track down my husband?

Given the fact that we'd been out in the acreage night after night, his scent would (I assume) be all over out there on the trails...but how did he know that our intent was to "track" him down?

 

[TxLady2]

I don't get why the timeline is such a big deal. That's why I never say anything about it. Like I said before, your making it too hard. Remember.. JMO

It matters because it can pinpoint where they were when they were taken. A timeline is always important, it gives LE a place to start.
I don't think it would be impossible for two healthy girls to get from one point to another point 1.5 miles away in 8 minutes, BUT to have them virtually disappear in that same amount of time is kind of tricky.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

You might be correct that the girls were never at the lake that day.

But why do you think Aunt Tammy went right to the lake immediately upon her initial searches? Coincidence?

Morning Katy!

I think the rest of the family had looked everywhere they could think of before Tammy was even called, right?

Maybe she knew they had not checked the lake area and thought they may have ridden there. Maybe when she was a young girl she had gone to the lake on her bike so she was hoping the girls had done the same.

That was before anyone knew the girls were seen (on camera) just minutes before in town though going in the opposite direction.

IMO

 

[TxLady2]

BBM

As in so many things, the credit goes to my mama and the way she brought me up. I have no instinct or touch with people at all but I spent my whole life watching my mama interact with people. People trusted her instinctively and would tell her the most amazing things on the strength of a minute's acquaintance with her.

Going anywhere with her was like what I imagine being in the entourage of a celebrity would be like. People constantly approached her and talked to her. All I do is ask myself "what would Mom do now?" and it hasn't steered me wrong yet, even though I don't have her people knack.

Try getting into the habit of saying kind things to people who look a bit harried. It gives you experience in how to approach intervention if needed and it makes the world a better place to be.

OMG! Did we have the same mother?? Mine was a magnet for babies and kids, she could quiet a crying baby in 2 seconds. And everywhere we went she made friends with total strangers who told her their life stories and she always knew the right words to say.
I hope I inherited a little of her ability, I never fail to smile and speak to little kids, and so far I haven't had one parent who saw me as a threat. But then I don't get too close, either.

 

[GrainneDhu]

It was SO cool!:woohoo:

It makes sense to me what you say about the huge neon signs to the dog because like I said, he didn't even break stride...he went right to him.

Question for you (this is what baffles me) - How did the dog know to even track my husband? How did he know we were looking for him? THAT is what had me in all sorts of confusion. I guess I assumed that trained handlers give some sort of command that indicates we are "on the hunt" for a particular scent. I just took him out there to see what he would do. I didn't say "go find him" or "where is he" or anything like that...so what made him know the "game" was to track down my husband?

Given the fact that we'd been out in the acreage night after night, his scent would (I assume) be all over out there on the trails...but how did he know that our intent was to "track" him down?

I have theories but only your dog has the facts.

My theory is that since you go out about that time every evening, your dog started playing the "what's wrong with this picture?" game and decided that Daddy needed to be rounded up for the usual evening stroll. Most dogs really like routine, it makes life predictable for them. Since they don't speak English, predictability is even more important for them than it is for humans.

Your dog may also have been reading your body language. You were intent on something, you were hoping to see something and your dog may have made a lucky educated guess based on his years of living with you.

A huge part of training tracking dogs is teaching them not so much that you are going tracking but what track they should be looking for. Tracking training is based on positive reinforcement (rewards), so dogs figure out very fast that the quickest way to get what they want is to do what you want.

Dogs that are being trained in tracking figure out when they are going tracking by their handler's behaviour and sometimes by what equipment the handler uses (in AKC tracking, a harness is required). It's not uncommon to pull up to where the track was laid and have the dog ping-ponging back and forth out of excitement before you've even turned the engine off.

As for the scent, no problem for a dog. Scent that is 24 hours old is way different for a dog than fresh hot scent. Consider that dogs can often tell within 10-15 feet when they are going backwards on the track. The difference between the scent at one end of a 15 foot track and the beginning is only a few seconds, at most. A 24 hour difference is simple in comparison.

 

[threecrazykids]

I have theories but only your dog has the facts.

My theory is that since you go out about that time every evening, your dog started playing the "what's wrong with this picture?" game and decided that Daddy needed to be rounded up for the usual evening stroll. Most dogs really like routine, it makes life predictable for them. Since they don't speak English, predictability is even more important for them than it is for humans.

Your dog may also have been reading your body language. You were intent on something, you were hoping to see something and your dog may have made a lucky educated guess based on his years of living with you.

A huge part of training tracking dogs is teaching them not so much that you are going tracking but what track they should be looking for. Tracking training is based on positive reinforcement (rewards), so dogs figure out very fast that the quickest way to get what they want is to do what you want.

Dogs that are being trained in tracking figure out when they are going tracking by their handler's behaviour and sometimes by what equipment the handler uses (in AKC tracking, a harness is required). It's not uncommon to pull up to where the track was laid and have the dog ping-ponging back and forth out of excitement before you've even turned the engine off.

As for the scent, no problem for a dog. Scent that is 24 hours old is way different for a dog than fresh hot scent. Consider that dogs can often tell within 10-15 feet when they are going backwards on the track. The difference between the scent at one end of a 15 foot track and the beginning is only a few seconds, at most. A 24 hour difference is simple in comparison.

Very cool info, thank you so much! This makes our evening strolls even that much more fun! There are so many places to hide out there, also it makes the walks more fun for the dog as well - he was all excited when he found him

Thank you!!

 

[Sunlight]

In case you missed it, Salem created a Timeline/Link page, where you can enter pertinent links, timeline info, etc. It is a no discussion thread.

IA IA-Elizabeth Collins, 8,&Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 *Media/Maps/TmLne* - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

 

[otto]

I've been questioning the same thing all along. It's such a common, easy mistake to make.

Of course, if the real time was 12:03 pm, all the witness statements would fit quite neatly.

I'm inclined to believe the statement given by the manager of the Auction Shop because I'm of the opinion that this is one detail that police would have discussed with him. In fact, I doubt that the manager knew that the camera was slow until police examined the footage and attempted to establish the accuracy of the timestamp on the camera.

 

[otto]

It matters because it can pinpoint where they were when they were taken. A timeline is always important, it gives LE a place to start.
I don't think it would be impossible for two healthy girls to get from one point to another point 1.5 miles away in 8 minutes, BUT to have them virtually disappear in that same amount of time is kind of tricky.

The timeline interests me because it's necessary to figure out if the girls were ever at the lake. If the cyclist's tip is valid, then the girls travelled a distance of 1.5 miles and vanished in less than 8 minutes (12:19 - 12:27). If the cyclist saw the bikes, then it's highly unlikely that the bikes were staged, as there simply isn't enough time.

Excluding the cyclist's tip opens up the possibility that the girls were abducted either in the parking lot, or somewhere between home and the lake, and their bikes were staged shortly after the abduction.

If we move the times around, accept that the camera time is 12:11 and the cyclist's time is 12:20, that increases the time to 9 minutes - not much different than 8. If we move the camera time to 12:03 and the cyclist's time to 12:25, then there is enough time for the girls to make the trip and vanish.

 

[otto]

:what: They LE got a lot of stuff?
How did I miss that?
Id love to read the article.

Investigator arrived at the Auction Shop 20 minutes after learning that the manager had the girls on video footage. They spent Monday and half of Tuesday examining the footage. The manager mentioned that they copied the footage and took note of every vehicle that was seen on the footage.

 

[Beyond Belief]

How much time is needed to bike from the abandoned bikes to the restrooms?

 

[Beyond Belief]

How much time would it take to secure two victims in a van, load two bikes, drive to the lake and unload the bikes?

 

[Sunlight]

In the Nancy Grace interview, MCM says they (she and Lyric?? I don't know about E) went to Byrnes Pool a lot during the weeks before the girls went missing. The transcript spells it Burns...but I think this is the one.

http://tinyurl.com/8wob89d


Maybe that is useful, I dunno.

 

[otto]

Maybe someone (Otto?) could make a really cool map with a circle showing where 1.5 miles falls from the cctv sighting.

I'm not convinced that this really helps, as 1.5 miles via the roads, or the trail, would be different than a 1.5 mile radius around the camera location.

 

[Sunlight]

Perhaps the distance from the camera location to the trail needs to be calculated by driving it with a tacometer...or walking it with a pedometer (available as a free app. btw).

 

[cindysue]

In the Nancy Grace interview, MCM says they (she and Lyric?? I don't know about E) went to Byrnes Pool a lot during the weeks before the girls went missing. The transcript spells it Burns...but I think this is the one.

http://tinyurl.com/8wob89d


Maybe that is useful, I dunno.

Its only 8.9 miles from that pool to meyers lake, could that be where she meet the perp?