IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #18

[SapphireSteel]

Those numbers came from NAMUS and DOJ. The article is about prevention, but the statistics are from cases of actual abductions.

We don't know if a vehicle was used to "bump" the bikes. I don't think LE has released any info regarding that. AFIK it doesn't appear to be the case here though.

There is also some debate whether or not the abduction happened "off road". We have no indication yet where exactly the girls were abducted. I don't think we can rule out, at this point, that it happened near Brovan and anywhere en route to the lake. . .just too little info at this time.

It is interesting to me that, statistically speaking, an abduction of two on bikes is rare or maybe unheard of. What does that tell us? Possibly the girls weren't abducted from their bikes, but were separated from them somehow before the abduction?! :waitasec:

MOO

:rocker:

Finally someone gets what I am saying!

It IS unique...and as sleuthers we need to open our minds and ask, "what does this tell us?"

Indeed, the uniqueness of the situation caused LE to announce they were CERTAIN the girls were still alive, which also goes against every statistic.

There are clues in the psychology and peculiarities of the crime itself which are being brushed away.

:cow:

 

[Truman]

Oh oh...I think it was supposed to be kept downstairs. I don't think we are allowed to discuss it here. I will delete...

If you were trying to lure us downstairs, it worked!!!

 

[Thespyma]

There is a special event that is on my "radar screen". It was held in a town very close to Evansdale. It began the evening of the 13th and went through the 14th. It drew 5000 men (no women) from all over the place. I imagine there were men there from many states, possibly even from other countries. It was one of several national events held this year by a very large men's organization. These events have drawn negative attention in the past while in other cities. One city's attention was particulary harsh after it was revealed by local reporters that the men were leaving the nightly meetings and flooding into local strip club's. That was notable and met with scorn because it is a religious organization.

Lots more I'd love to say about all that, but my theory is pretty crazy. LOL!

p.s. If you happen to guess the organization, please do not write out the name here. I don't want it to come up in any web searches. Yes, I am THAT paranoid about it.

Not crazy at all. Not any more than any other theory at this point and any group, no matter what kind can have unsavoury members amongst them. I will not write out the name but I am pretty sure I know who you are referring too.

 

[RNER]

Katy, I must have missed this! Is this "inside" information or was it reported in MSM? Has the man's name ever been mentioned?

The man's name and crime were reported on MSM. The victim's name was not released on MSM, because she was under-age. Someone connected "the older cousin", which hasn't been confirmed.

 

[MotherOcean]

Gramma didn't want them to go out at all.

She reluctantly agreed to a SHORT bike ride at 11.30.

A short bike ride in my head is a quarter of an hour, a half at most. This would also fit in with why she got concerned - she expected them back by around 12ish.

Which doesn't fit with her NOT calling them in at 12.15 when she saw them...

Mind you she did mix up her times originally so that would explain this discrepancy.

:moo:

During one of her first interviews on video, MCM said that it was normal for them to be allowed to ride their bikes for one hour. They were expected to check in after one hour, so I assumed that's why the grandmother thought they would come back at 12:30. They had left at 11:30. And, she was supposed to be leaving at 1:00.

 

[hambirg]

:rocker:

Finally someone gets what I am saying!

It IS unique...and as sleuthers we need to open our minds and ask, "what does this tell us?"

Indeed, the uniqueness of the situation caused LE to announce they were CERTAIN the girls were still alive, which also goes against every statistic.

There are clues in the psychology and peculiarities of the crime itself which are being brushed away.

:cow:

Don't get too excited. I don't think we have the same theory or we are drawing the same conclusion.

I just simply mean that maybe the girls weren't on their bikes when they were taken.

I see quite a few scenarios. . .

They were off their bikes looking at something near Brovan when they were approached.

They went somewhere other than the lake. . .the school. . .a house and were taken there.

They did go to the lake, drop their bikes and through the gate to the jetty area and were approached there.

And of course, there is always the statistical anomaly, that they were on their bikes and approached by someone with a weapon, forced to get off their bikes and taken.

MOO

 

[nikb]

Probably not, but people have been working on it over the summer.
http://wcfcourier.com/business/local/article_433e1ff7-a1f4-5529-8d3d-12b7e09cac3f.html

Hmmm... interesting. Thanks for the article. So it wouldn't have drawn a lot of people to the area that day to see the haunted house, but it strikes me that people working on it, especially coming up with and 'decorating' the scenes, might be interested in well I'll just say 'unsavory' things. That's pretty out there I know, but one other thought to add to the mix.

 

[nikb]

I think that may be an old link, the article is from 2011.

Oh oops - I missed that. Good catch on the date. Sounds like the place is huge so they might already be working on decorating it, but I imagine the expansion would be done by now.

 

[Confusion]

It's a small town where people are not expecting bad things to happen. If someone sees two children and their bikes being loaded into a van, it would be assumed that the children were being picked up by a parent. It wouldn't look unusual at all.

SBM BBM again
What I said is that in a small town, witnesses are likely to know if the person is not a parent to the child.

In this small town of Evansdale, apparently that did not happen and two young girls were taken without anyone noticing.

I don't understand how you figure that nobody noticing the girls being taken means that nobody would have noticed it if they had seen it happening. With all of the hours I've spent reading about this case and listening to the scanner when I could, I've never seen or heard about anyone who SAW it happen but didn't realize there was a problem. MOO

Someone asked earlier why there weren't as many people posting here anymore. I, for one, don't post here as often because there are certain posters so set on foisting their opinions/guesses/theories on everyone else that they have created an adversarial atmosphere, IMO.

It's good to discuss all options, but none of us, no matter how smart or special we may think we are, have the answer to what happened to Lyric and Elizabeth. There are no named suspects. We don't know for sure where they were abducted. We don't even know when they were abducted. All we know is they were riding their bikes, and now they are gone.

I hope that doesn't get lost in the one-upmanship that seems to be going on lately. JMO

I know it's getting harder to bring myself to post here all the time for pretty much that same reason. It seems like a few people are so sure that they have the right theory that they automatically discount anything said that doesn't fit neatly into their scenarios. I think we might be a lot more effective if we took turns with the theories. Take them one at a time, and everybody discuss the good points, the problems and any possible changes that would need to be made for it to work. Of course that's just me, I always have a hard time making decisions because I tend to try looking at all possibilities from all angles, and that's not usually possible. I definitely feel like I spend more time defending my thoughts (which I never state are facts) than I do discussing possible solutions to the problems.

Oh oh...I think it was supposed to be kept downstairs. I don't think we are allowed to discuss it here. I will delete...

I know there was something in MSM about the Internet guy who was arrested for enticing a minor when he had met a 12 year-old a couple of times - and thought he was meeting her a 3rd time, but it was actually LE. I don't remember reading anything about Lyric or her cousin being involved (the cousin is actually 11, I believe, and the 'victim' is 12)

 

[nikb]

The victim was flown by helicopter to large hospital, unsure of the condition. It has been on local television and newspapers, so far victim's name, circumstances, and my brother's name have not been released...we'll see what happens tomorrow when a scheduled "press conference" occurs with LE.

Good luck. I hope they keep quiet about his name. Maybe he can specifically ask them not to give his name, just keep it generic "one witness." I hope he gets some good news about the victim, too.

 

[CN2Souls]

Where is the baseball Field were the girls were at the night before the abduction.

Is it for school, neighborhood or Church?

 

[Darcyline]

I always like having multiple theories (I have 3-4 with Lyric and Elizabeth in descending order of what I think is the most likely to have happened). Some people do prefer narrowing in on one and focusing on that though. At this point, none of us know though so I don't think any theory can be wrong (well...within reason).

I think this case has hit the horrible doldrums time period where we have discussed literally everything we know a million times and no new news has come out for weeks. I am trying to hold onto faith that that means they are about to crack the case and that is why it is so quiet.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Hmmm... interesting. Thanks for the article. So it wouldn't have drawn a lot of people to the area that day to see the haunted house, but it strikes me that people working on it, especially coming up with and 'decorating' the scenes, might be interested in well I'll just say 'unsavory' things. That's pretty out there I know, but one other thought to add to the mix.

Help, I'm missing something. The link is to a June 2011 article - please tell me how this relates? I'm not being snarky, I just can't seem to make a connection. TIA.

 

[nikb]

Help, I'm missing something. The link is to a June 2011 article - please tell me how this relates? I'm not being snarky, I just can't seem to make a connection. TIA.

You're right - I saw your post right after mine and I had missed the date on the article.

 

[foxbluff]

How would someone hide two children in a tent?

I'm having so many problems following along here...it couldn't be age, right?!? LOL

If a poster suggested these two precious little girls were hidden in a tent, I didn't happen to see that. (For whatever it's worth, I know for sure that I never meant to imply that.)

 

[CN2Souls]

I am losing my mind or is an offensive title......?


http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_59a3ef72-ebae-11e1-863c-0019bb2963f4.html

(The HUNT for Lyric and Elizabeth)???????????

 

[Marilynilpa]

You're right - I saw your post right after mine and I had missed the date on the article.

Darn, I was hoping this was something new that my addled brain just couldn't understand.

 

[cluciano63]

I always like having multiple theories (I have 3-4 with Lyric and Elizabeth in descending order of what I think is the most likely to have happened). Some people do prefer narrowing in on one and focusing on that though. At this point, none of us know though so I don't think any theory can be wrong (well...within reason).

I think this case has hit the horrible doldrums time period where we have discussed literally everything we know a million times and no new news has come out for weeks. I am trying to hold onto faith that that means they are about to crack the case and that is why it is so quiet.

I wish that were the case...it never seems to be true in the cases involving children, though. Silence has proven to be no news in so many of them.

 

[mahoolin]

About the haunted house, I think the link was a 2011 link in error, but I think the idea was valid. I wouldn't be surprised if they had already started working on this year's special haunts. IIRC, I read about it earlier when it was posted and all involved have regular jobs, so maybe friday afternoons, sat or sunday are the only times to work on it. Maybe they have regular volunteers each year too? I would have been thrilled to have a quick (free)run-through of a haunted house!
I looked at the map, lafayette rd looks like it's not far from the girls last sighting on video
*One disclaimer, I'm not the world's best with maps, but it looks pretty close to me.
:moo:

 

[MNDad]

Someone asked earlier why there weren't as many people posting here anymore. I, for one, don't post here as often because there are certain posters so set on foisting their opinions/guesses/theories on everyone else that they have created an adversarial atmosphere, IMO.

It's good to discuss all options, but none of us, no matter how smart or special we may think we are, have the answer to what happened to Lyric and Elizabeth. There are no named suspects. We don't know for sure where they were abducted. We don't even know when they were abducted. All we know is they were riding their bikes, and now they are gone.

I hope that doesn't get lost in the one-upmanship that seems to be going on lately. JMO

I've had a couple of theories and each time I have been 100% sure that voila, I have solved everything. I certainly hope that I'm not on the list of "certain posters" that has caused an adversarial atmosphere. I think it is great when someone has a strong theory and can back it up with facts or even over-the-top coincidences, but there really is no benefit to try to be right versus wrong and get others to buy in on your theory. If you are succesful then the brainstorming stops because everyone believes the same thing. It isn't productive to win the debate. The real productivity comes into play when someone puts their theory out there and allow others to find holes in it.

(ps: I am pretty sure I mixed my tenses a lot in there)