ID - DeOrr Kunz, Jr., 2, Timber Creek Campground, 10 July 2015 - #28

[KatieLiz]

All JMO
ok....I think I may have found something that is quite damning to the parents story. I have been searching back through interviews and things trying to find something and this is something that doesn't jive with what the parents told LE.

Remember how the parents said when they called 911 they had been looking only for about 1/2 hour to maybe an hour at most. Well listen carefully to this interview with grandma and focus on what she is saying about ALL the missed calls she saw on her phone from JM. Then at exactly the 5:40 mark listen very carefully to what we are being told. We are told that the Mom only called 911 AFTER she had spoken to grandma.

Well then, what does this mean?
It means that in order for JM to had made ALL those other calls to grandma's phone that were missed before she finally got ahold of her, then MUCH more time had to have gone by with the boy being missing.
There were a slew of missed calls according to what we are hearing. And notice carefully that when she finally got ahold of her that she could not make out a word that JM was saying.

This is telling because it means the "act" started right there and she was waiting until she got ahold of her mom before they pulled the trigger with the act and calling 911. Because lets put anybody else in their shoes while you are missing your son. There is no way you would wait on getting ahold of someone that may or may not ever answer before you call 911 to get help searching for a missing child. But more importantly there is no way only 1/2 hour or so of searching had gone on before calling 911. There were a slew of missed calls which means she was probably trying to get ahold of her all morning long is my guess. This is where the parents are caught in a definite lie or fib at least.

All JMO of course

http://www.localnews8.com/news/exte...dma-of-missing-toddler-deorr-kunz-jr/39482978

You're exactly right. And I have said all along it will be their call logs, cell records, and tower pings that nail them in this case. And I believe that's exactly where LE got suspicious, the phone call timelines. And I think that is why Klein keeps saying they think every single thing the parents have said could be fabricated. Because stories and timelines simply don't add up.

 

[Paulas88]

I wonder if JMA married the new husband so he wouldn't be forced to testify against her? She never married VK, even though they had a child together.

 

[neesaki]

neesaki educate me please. What is the "Median statistical distance" that R Koester speaks of?

In the back of my mind is that they start searching 2 km out, then expand to 5 km out, is this what RK refers to?

Also what did the SAR guy Jeff Hasse say? Were those his words in your quote? tia

I honestly don't know the exact distance, and I measure distance in miles, not km's, here in the U.S. I think that information is out there, but I don't have time to find it at the moment. Perhaps someone else here has that information. I'm thinking it's outside of 3 miles, or possibly further. Thinking back, there have been several victims found as far as 8 miles, IIRC. Well, anyway, here is the link again, and Jeff's post in it's entirety. Hope this helps.

ETA: Regarding the distance, It also would depend on the age, a small child would doubtfully be found as far as 8 miles away, unless they had been abducted or taken by an animal predator.

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...19-Marshall-14-May-2008&p=4688694#post4688694

Posted by MTRTA Search Manager - Post # 130

Thank you for your support.

When a search goes on as long as this one has, there is a tremeandous amount of frustration among everyone involved, both directly and indirectly. Speculation tends to become more and more wild. The rumor mill takes on a life of its own. Conspiracy theories abound.

However, one of the best questions one can ask about a lengthy search is; "Is there a comprehensive search plan in place?" Many times the answer is no and search efforts lack direction or the same areas are searched over and over.

There are only two reasons why Brandon hasn't been found yet. 1) He is located in an area that we haven't searched yet. or 2) We searched where he is, but missed him. The former can be resolved by sticking to the search plan. (It is also possible that he is outside the area entirely, but that is extremely unlikely based on the massive amount of data generated by the HRD dogs.) The latter issue keeps me up at night. However, a careful analysis of the clues and wind patterns as well as calculating Cumulative Probabilities of Detection help direct us in this regard.

It is amazing how often inexperienced Search Managers fail to consider the former problem. In Lost Person Behavior by Robert Koester, he describes that, in the vast majority of failed searches, Search Managers did not search beyond the median statistical distance. By definition, these searches have a 50:50 chance of failing.

The main reason for this is likely "Scenario Lock" as described in an earlier post. It is common in searches for assumptions made early in a search (based on the flimsiest of evidence) to become written in stone over time. I believe it was quite reasonable early on to follow up on the presumption that Brandon fell in the Yellow Medicine River and drowned. However, one can obtain a reasonable Probability of Detection in 4-5 searches (especially when using quality HRD dogs). 57 is beyond overkill. This is Scenario Lock.

It has been a tough sell among some people to convince them that the evidence suggests that Brandon continued walking beyond the Yellow Medicine River. But the evidence clearly suggests that he did.

Like any good investigator, we follow the evidence. We can't predict when the search will be completed, only that the plan is clearly showing us what comes next. Searches seem to evolve on their own time schedule.

Jeff

 

[neesaki]

All JMO
ok....I think I may have found something that is quite damning to the parents story. I have been searching back through interviews and things trying to find something and this is something that doesn't jive with what the parents told LE.

Remember how the parents said when they called 911 they had been looking only for about 1/2 hour to maybe an hour at most. Well listen carefully to this interview with grandma and focus on what she is saying about ALL the missed calls she saw on her phone from JM. Then at exactly the 5:40 mark listen very carefully to what we are being told. We are told that the Mom only called 911 AFTER she had spoken to grandma.

Well then, what does this mean?
It means that in order for JM to had made ALL those other calls to grandma's phone that were missed before she finally got ahold of her, then MUCH more time had to have gone by with the boy being missing.
There were a slew of missed calls according to what we are hearing. And notice carefully that when she finally got ahold of her that she could not make out a word that JM was saying.

This is telling because it means the "act" started right there and she was waiting until she got ahold of her mom before they pulled the trigger with the act and calling 911. Because lets put anybody else in their shoes while you are missing your son. There is no way you would wait on getting ahold of someone that may or may not ever answer before you call 911 to get help searching for a missing child. But more importantly there is no way only 1/2 hour or so of searching had gone on before calling 911. There were a slew of missed calls which means she was probably trying to get ahold of her all morning long is my guess. This is where the parents are caught in a definite lie or fib at least.

All JMO of course

http://www.localnews8.com/news/exte...dma-of-missing-toddler-deorr-kunz-jr/39482978

Good points, Hatfield.

 

[Hatfield]

You're exactly right. And I have said all along it will be their call logs, cell records, and tower pings that nail them in this case. And I believe that's exactly where LE got suspicious, the phone call timelines. And I think that is why Klein keeps saying they think every single thing the parents have said could be fabricated. Because stories and timelines simply don't add up.

Yeah. There are probably many more inconsistencies that LE knows about and we are probably not even privy to.

I think what this one tells me is they were waiting to start their "act" with the Grandma first to get another "friendly witness" or person on their side that could vouche for them that they had just lost their child. It sure would be interesting to see the call log pattern of those attempted calls.

The whole thing is so hokey with their actions involving the 911 calls to LE and their original interview. I think they were so worried about sounding believable when calling 911 that they actually made themselves look guilty in the process.

 

[Groundwork]

All JMO
ok....I think I may have found something that is quite damning to the parents story. I have been searching back through interviews and things trying to find something and this is something that doesn't jive with what the parents told LE.

Remember how the parents said when they called 911 they had been looking only for about 1/2 hour to maybe an hour at most. Well listen carefully to this interview with grandma and focus on what she is saying about ALL the missed calls she saw on her phone from JM. Then at exactly the 5:40 mark listen very carefully to what we are being told. We are told that the Mom only called 911 AFTER she had spoken to grandma.

Well then, what does this mean?
It means that in order for JM to had made ALL those other calls to grandma's phone that were missed before she finally got ahold of her, then MUCH more time had to have gone by with the boy being missing.
There were a slew of missed calls according to what we are hearing. And notice carefully that when she finally got ahold of her that she could not make out a word that JM was saying.

This is telling because it means the "act" started right there and she was waiting until she got ahold of her mom before they pulled the trigger with the act and calling 911. Because lets put anybody else in their shoes while you are missing your son. There is no way you would wait on getting ahold of someone that may or may not ever answer before you call 911 to get help searching for a missing child. But more importantly there is no way only 1/2 hour or so of searching had gone on before calling 911. There were a slew of missed calls which means she was probably trying to get ahold of her all morning long is my guess. This is where the parents are caught in a definite lie or fib at least.

All JMO of course

http://www.localnews8.com/news/exte...dma-of-missing-toddler-deorr-kunz-jr/39482978

"There were a slew of missed calls according to what we are hearing. And notice carefully that when she finally got ahold of her that she could not make out a word that JM was saying."

I remember hearing this during the interview with TC and thinking how much her description of JM's demeanor contrasted with how calm JM sounded on the 911 call. JMO

 

[Mickshawn]

"There were a slew of missed calls according to what we are hearing. And notice carefully that when she finally got ahold of her that she could not make out a word that JM was saying."

I remember hearing this during the interview with TC and thinking how much her description of JM's demeanor contrasted with how calm JM sounded on the 911 call. JMO

I wonder if the cell phone logs show calls JMA and VDK made to "each other" prior to the 911 calls?

 

[Deleted member 278]

I wonder if the cell phone logs show calls JMA and VDK made to "each other" prior to the 911 calls?

Are you questioning what info logs capture or if they really called each other? Sorry for being dense right now. Blame it on my age, drugs, booze...whatever.

 

[Mickshawn]

Are you questioning what info logs capture or if they really called each other? Sorry for being dense right now. Blame it on my age, drugs, booze...whatever.

I was wondering if they did call each other....like they might be in different places and chatting via cell phone...and the cell phones would show that right? Unless they deleted their dialed out and received calls...

 

[neesaki]

"There were a slew of missed calls according to what we are hearing. And notice carefully that when she finally got ahold of her that she could not make out a word that JM was saying."

I remember hearing this during the interview with TC and thinking how much her description of JM's demeanor contrasted with how calm JM sounded on the 911 call. JMO

Thats where I call TBC's truthfulness into question , how could she not make out a word she was saying. 911 didn't seem to have a problem. I call foul.

 

[Mickshawn]

Thats where I call TBC's truthfulness into question , how could she not make out a word she was saying. 911 didn't seem to have a problem. I call foul.

And what was the issue about TBC getting to the campsite in record time? I never quite understood that.

 

[neesaki]

Quote from yesterday by Klein on their Facebook : "Let us say this when we are quiet we are usually very busy"

Please find Deorr.

 

[Elle*Bee]

I was wondering if they did call each other....like they might be in different places and chatting via cell phone...and the cell phones would show that right? Unless they deleted their dialed out and received calls...

While you can delete the call log on most (all?) phones, the call logs obtained from the cell phone provider will indicate who was called, when and call duration.

 

[KatieLiz]

Quote from yesterday by Klein on their Facebook : "Let us say this when we are quiet we are usually very busy"

Please find Deorr.

... I've had three dreams in the last 2 weeks and in all 3 I signed into websleuths to find the news that poor little Deorr had been found and his parents arrested.

Now... I definitely Don't think I'm Psychic in any way. By I have an uncanny history of dreams coming true.

So basically.. I have a renewed hope that answers will be found sooner than later (or the dreaded- never).

 

[neesaki]

... I've had three dreams in the last 2 weeks and in all 3 I signed into websleuths to find the news that poor little Deorr had been found and his parents arrested.

Now... I definitely Don't think I'm Psychic in any way. By I have an uncanny history of dreams coming true.

So basically.. I have a renewed hope that answers will be found sooner than later (or the dreaded- never).

Believe it or not, I do believe that there can in some instances be something to dreams. You never know.

 

[Deleted member 278]

I think that Jessica, Vernal and Gramps are the ones that are having the most accurate dreams.

 

[kimi_SFC]

After watching the extended interview with Baby DeOrr's grandma (reference Hatfield's excellent and appreciated Opost #539), I am still struck by the detachment she displayed in speaking about him.

He was referred to as "the baby," or "that baby" etc., multiple times. She only mentioned calling him "Baby DeOrr" when describing the initial search at the campground (she called out for "Baby DeOrr" and "D.J." that first night), and when Chelsea ended the interview with the question, "What would you say to Baby DeOrr right now?"

She first spoke to him directly (first person) with, "Nana loves you..." then switched mid stream to describing all of the holidays that have passed and the toys waiting for him (not you).

I don't understand, from a parent's perspective, why it is so difficult for them to say his name. I know my fellow WSers have discussed this before. That said, to watch this entire sit down interview, and observe it for myself, really resonated.

Does it hurt too much to say his name? Perhaps, it does. IME, though, this distancing behavior doesn't jive. The family members of the missing children that I know personally speak lovingly - and achingly - of them (their names are both linked to social media campaigns as well). :cow:

Every time this has happens (and it has been this way since July of last year), my heart cries out,
"His name is BabyDeOrr!"

But maybe that's just me....

Link to interview:
http://m.localnews8.com/news/extend...dma-of-missing-toddler-deorr-kunz-jr/39482978


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[SmartSassyBBW]

Hmm. Maybe the mom doesn't use his name because it's the same name as the baby daddy ( suspect) who she jettisoned shortly after the baby went "missing".


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[Deleted member 278]

Hmm. Maybe the mom doesn't use his name because it's the same name as the baby daddy ( suspect) who she jettisoned shortly after the baby went "missing".


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baby daddy doesn't call him by name either

 

[Traymar]

Hmm. Maybe the mom doesn't use his name because it's the same name as the baby daddy ( suspect) who she jettisoned shortly after the baby went "missing".


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Dad doesn't go by DeOrr though. He goes by Vernal.

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