I suspect what will sink him, is his attempts to explain this in his police interview, assuming trail woman comes up to spec as a witness.
The video of his car, plus seeing the 3 girls, places him on an approximate 'flight path' to the bridge, and as far as we know, he didn't deviate from that. Trail Woman then sees a bridge guy on the bridge - which is where we expect to find RA according to his own version.
There is now no way for him to get off the bridge and past the victims, unless they somehow took a detour to let him slip by. The details of their phone location will be quite critical to this IMO.
To me the most interesting part of the MS podcast discussion is that RA basically told LE he is bridge guy and that could well be part of the killers profile. He got a thrill out of being the suspect.
His mistake IMO, is having had years to think about it, he stuck with his exit path, because he didn't know about Trail woman, and didn't know how accurately photos, cameras and calls would establish a timeline.
He likely believed he could argue he got off the bridge before the timestamp in the video - he really only needs a 5min window I think, to get past where the victims will come on to the trail. But the problem is Trail Woman proves there is no such window - because she sweeps the path between the victims and the bridge.
This already proves BARD that RA=BG
But IMO what MS has not paid attention to, is LE will have tripped him up on this stuff in the interview
Especially I suspect, that knowing what he knew of the evidence, RA will have gone for a fast walk version, to let him get back past the victims carpark entry point. No other version works for him.
What he didn't realise is he needs to get on and off the bridge before Trail Woman gets on to the trail - because she creates a complete "bottle episode' defining the time and space window in which all the events occur. Especially she corroborates the victims arrival time, and sees the accused car still parked at 2.14
The only way i can make it work is if somehow the victims went off trail for some minutes, before the bridge
Is this reasonable doubt? I think if he evolved his story in the interview, he is sunk.
thanks for the post! - I believe we're trying to put this together along the same thought pattern.
Agreed that seeing the 3 girls at Freedom puts him on the flight path toward MHB as you say.
Agreed that per PCA, RA places himself on Platform #1 of MHB which is also where Witness 4 describes seeing someone.
Where my challenge enters, and I can tell from Gray H's video he similarly struggles is trying to account for what seems to be very off-and-on pace changes from seemingly all of the walkers at the scene in order to reconcile the various time-stamp evidence proof. At :36 of Gray's animated video of the timeline he states "Some Assumptions Were Made" which absolutely were necessary to make the unknown timeframes work with the known timestamps. Below are 2 versions of mine per Gray's video, one sorted by person/group, then after that a (more head-scratching) summary version by route:
Juvenile Girl Witnesses 1/2/3 - timestamps of HB 12:43 photo, 1:26 bench photo west of Mears, encounter with BG/RA that had to have occurred after 1:35 based on camera of RA's car, then overhead observation at 1:46 by Witness 4 verified again by camera of her car
-- 30 minutes (extremely slow) 12:43 to 1:13 from north end High Bridge to Mears trailhead
-- 28 minutes (still extremely slow) 1:13 to 1:41 from Mears trailhead to Freedom Bridge
-- 3 minutes (a near-sprint comparably) 1:41 to 1:44 from Freedom Bridge to bridge over SR25 observation by Witness4
BG/RA - only timestamp is of 1:27 Harvestore camera shot of his supposed car, the rest have to be assumed in order to reconcile with various people's accounts, but... RA '17 interview with CO places his arrival at around 1:30, RA's and 3 girls' accounts generally agree on their place of intersection, and RA '22 interview places himself on MHB Platform #1 in agreement with Witness 4 saying she saw someone at same location
-- 9 minutes 1:28 to 1:37 RA has to have remained in his car (to have met the 3 girls where/when took place)
-- 4 minutes (purposeful pace) 1:37 to 1:41 from CPS Parking to Freedom Bridge
-- 4 minutes (very fast) 1:41 to 1:45 from Freedom Bridge to Mears trailhead
-- 2 minutes (lightning fast) 1:45 to 1:47 from Mears trailhead to north end High Bridge
-- 10 minutes 1:47 to 1:57 that is presumed RA stands on Platform #1 'watching fish' while observed by Witness4
-- 5 minutes (now very slow) 1:57 to 2:02 part of the way back (halfway back?) from MHB toward Mears trailhead, before U-turning, remembering per above he'd covered the
entire Mears to MHB distance in 2 minutes only moments earlier
-- 7 minutes (even slower) 2:02 to 2:09 from the U-turn point returning to north end MHB (he has to be out of sight looking backwards on A's 2:07 photo
-- 4 minutes (blisteringly fast over rickety surface) 2:09 to 2:13, the believed abduction time, to cross the length of MHB
Witness 4 - timestamp of Harvestore video of her still driving/not yet parked at 1:46, and similar video of her again driving/having left parking at 2:14. This would mean her entire time on the trails was approx 24 minutes 1:48 to 2:12. Gray's video has her practically leaping out of the car just seconds after driving past the camera and already having run to the trailhead in less than a minute from passing the camera, showing you have to rush her pace to make this work. It also is tough to reconcile when she says she passes girls to where they were known to have been at 2:07.
-- 4 minutes (jogging pace) 1:48 to 1:52 from Mears trailhead to north end High Bridge
-- 2 minutes (equal to above pace) 1:52 to 1:54 halfway back (as W4 asserts) from High Bridge towards Mears trailhead.
-- (no time is really built in here for her to have paused at MHB long enough to have observed someone standing 50 to perhaps 150 feet away and noting their clothing as she described) but is reasonable to assume less than a minute IMO
-- 15 minutes from 1:57 to 2:12...it gets questionable here as per the pace she had been moving she'd have arrived back at her car by 1:57 which is a very short total walk/jog of like 9-10 minutes. Either she stopped in place or slowed to a standstill pace near her car, or as Gray assumes in the video she kept walking past her car for awhile then U-turned back to her car (IMO don't recall seeing any description of W4's entire route so while either is kind of a stretch MOO, either could be plausible, and one of those has to have occurred for her account to be believed. In any event she is photo'd west of the parking area driving again by 2:14
A & L - camera photo timestamp of Kelsi's dropoff per PCA just before 1:49, IG southward photo of empty bridge at 2:03, IG photo of A with no one else visible behind at 2:07, L's 43-second video beginning or ending at 2:13
-- 11 minutes (leisurely pace) 1:48 to 1:59 from Mears trailhead to north end High Bridge
-- 14 minutes (still leisurely pace w/stopping) 1:59 to 2:13 to cross the length of MHB
So, per Gray's video and also IMO what's necessary to reconcile the provable timestamps...
from Mears trailhead to north end of High Bridge/MHB
-- 30 minutes for the 3 juvenile girls (perhaps they were very young and couldn't go faster?)
-- 2 minutes for RA/BG
-- 4 minutes for Witness4
-- 11 minutes for A & L
Crossing the length of the High Bridge/MHB
-- 4 minutes for RA/BG
-- 14 minutes for A & L
Interestingly observed that the older (and more out-of-shape?) people meaning RA/BG and Witness4 (to make the timeline/scenario reconcilable) need to be moving significantly faster compared to the younger more athletic people.
MOO - Blows my mind that IF this was unplanned that everything happened in such a short window of time - RA/BG drives from home to trails to take a walk, perhaps something he's done numerous times, then within a half-hour he instead performs an abduction of 2 teenage local girls. Even if he'd been kind of looking for an opportunity such as this, the ground to cover and number of things one would have to think of or consider their tracks, would seem staggeringly difficult.