IN - Abigail Williams, 13, & Liberty German, 14, Delphi, 13 Feb 2017 #66

[DarkSkink]

Can you factually state the exact depth of the water where the alleged crossing took place?

No?

Then your theory is no more factual than other suppositions.

Should the creek narrow in an area, the physics of water flow are such that the volume of flow will determine the increase in depth and be spread uniformly. Water doesnt simply drop a foot or 10 without creating a waterfall effect.

If normally the water in one area is one foot below a sandbar, and the creek raises 3', then that sandbar is only 2' below the water level.

 

[BigCityAccountant]

What and left the phone on purpose? Hmmm hadn't thought of that. Why would he/they do that and just the audio? Taunting?

Yes, that was the horrifying thought I had. Only because I had read about a child abductor in Fort Wayne that was taunting LE and IIRC has never been caught and vowed to do it again. He would leave notes on the kids bicycles. You'll have to search these threads on L&A to find my post. It was a while back.

 

[JnRyan]

How the killer must have appeared after all that occurs is an interesting thought. We don't know at what point he emerged from the forest, but he would likely have appeared disheveled and unkempt---muddy, maybe.

It's also interesting that no alert for a vehicle id has been made. Maybe, because the big search and find happened so far after the event it was too late to identify a possible vehicle---but you think someone would have noticed the vehicles parked near them that day.

If he crossed the creek with Abigail and Liberty, his trousers would have been wet. I've also thought it was strange that no vehicle was mentioned. I do remember in the beginning LE asked if anyone had picked up a hitchhiker that afternoon or saw someone walking on the nearby highway. I suspect that LE asked for anyone who might have been on the trail and when they came forward LE asked them directly about other vehicles in the lot. If I had parked even in a small lot with more than half a dozen spots I doubt I could remember the vehicles next to me when asked a few days later.

 

[BigCityAccountant]

Thanks, Steleheart. I'm not convinced, though. LE isn't above putting out misinformation to the news media if it suits their own purpose. Besides, a witness coming forward months later with perfect recollection as to the color of someone's eyes? There's a recent link posted here to an article detailing the unreliability of eyewitness accounts. Additionally, anyone passing BG on the trail isn't thinking, "I better take note of this random guy's eye color because months from now I'm going to be asked to recall everything I can about him".

With all due respect, we don't know if the witness was on the trail. Given that most sleuther's here agree that this wasn't his first redeo, so I suspect the witness may have been another victim in another location that he was tied to by DNA. Hence, the statement "the victim was close enough to him to say that he did not have blue eyes. My suspicion is that the witness is a victim of another crime he committed involving SA against her and she was afraid to speak up. I suspect LE contacted her when they got the match, hence the delay in her coming forward. I suspect she didn't come forward, but they approached her and she agreed to provide whatever information she could. I also suspect she is still afraid as I would be too. This guy is dangerous to ALL women out there and I can't wait for him to be caught and given the death penalty. I also suspect it took so much time because they had to contact the jurisdiction the 1st crime occurred and then that local LE department had to contact the victim and arrange to provide the information.

Also, IIRC (I could be wrong, please correct me if I am) but I believe they said something along the lines of the sketch went back and forth between LE and the witness. These leads me to believe he is NOT local. I suspect the sketch was a combination of phone conversations and emails, perhaps?

All JMHO and speculation.

 

[Confusion]

I know this is basically just semantics, but I wanted to bring up the difference between a scenario and a theory (I try to say which is included in my posts, but don't always remember). I know it's not really important, but I tend to be a stickler for details (along with spelling, grammar and usage, but that's irrelevant).

A scenario is just a basic outline of a story; it's a description of something that could have happened, but it doesn't rely entirely on facts, or even educated guesses.

A theory, on the other hand, is a way of explaining known facts which allows for the possibility of error. I do sometimes say that I'm posting a theory, but it's usually more of a conjecture - based on incomplete facts/information.

Speculation is basically just a guess, trying to form a theory without basing it on facts.

These are very basic definitions, but I just wanted to clear up my own posts even if not everybody follows the same guidelines. If my responses sometimes seem inappropriate, I'm hoping that this will explain why I may misunderstand someone's "speculation", "theory" or whatever. At the same time, if my post says it's a scenario (rather than a theory), it normally means that I know there are some things in it that aren't supported by known facts. Sorry if this is O/T, but I'm just trying to prevent some future disagreements.

 

[BigCityAccountant]

Australia, another case of murder:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...d/news-story/a459ed625d8cdfb5f71ffa695f4b1fb9


5 witnesses who had known the suspect's deed for several years and didn't come forward. I think they only came forward when the suspect was already sitting in jail.

Agreed. In the Brown's Chicken Murders in Palatine IL the girlfriend of the perp didn't come forward I believe for 7 years because she was afraid.

 

[Shiressleuth]

Can you factually state the exact depth of the water where the alleged crossing took place?

No?

Then your theory is no more factual than other suppositions.

Should the creek narrow in an area, the physics of water flow are such that the volume of flow will determine the increase in depth and be spread uniformly. Water doesnt simply drop a foot or 10 without creating a waterfall effect.

If normally the water in one area is one foot below a sandbar, and the creek raises 3', then that sandbar is only 2' below the water level.

Who are you asking or is it rhetorical?
We can factually state the water was higher on the 13th than in the drone video and higher also than on the 14th and definitely much higher than in JM March video based on the flow data. That's as good as it gets.

 

[terpstra1]

With all due respect, we don't know if the witness was on the trail. Given that most sleuther's her agree that this wasn't his first redeo, so I suspect the witness may have been another victim in another location that he was tied to by DNA. Hence, the statement "the victim was close enough to him to say that he did not have blue eyes. My suspicion is that the witness is a victim of another crime he committed involving SA against her and she was afraid to speak up. I suspect LE contacted her when they got the match, hence the delay in her coming forward. I suspect she didn't come forward, but they approached her and she agreed to provide whatever information she could. I also suspect she is still afraid as I would be too. This guy is dangerous to ALL women out there and I can't wait for him to be caught and given the death penalty. I also suspect it took so much time because they had to contact the jurisdiction the 1st crime occurred and then that local LE department had to contact the victim and arrange to provide the information.

Also, IIRC (I could be wrong, please correct me if I am) but I believe they said something along the lines of the sketch went back and forth between LE and the witness. These leads me to believe he is NOT local. I suspect the sketch was a combination of phone conversations and emails, perhaps?

All JMHO and speculation.

I hadn't thought about that. You may be on to something.

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[Shiressleuth]

I know this is basically just semantics, but I wanted to bring up the difference between a scenario and a theory (I try to say which is included in my posts, but don't always remember). I know it's not really important, but I tend to be a stickler for details (along with spelling, grammar and usage, but that's irrelevant).

A scenario is just a basic outline of a story; it's a description of something that could have happened, but it doesn't rely entirely on facts, or even educated guesses.

A theory, on the other hand, is a way of explaining known facts which allows for the possibility of error. I do sometimes say that I'm posting a theory, but it's usually more of a conjecture - based on incomplete facts/information.

Speculation is basically just a guess, trying to form a theory without basing it on facts.

These are very basic definitions, but I just wanted to clear up my own posts even if not everybody follows the same guidelines. If my responses sometimes seem inappropriate, I'm hoping that this will explain why I may misunderstand someone's "speculation", "theory" or whatever. At the same time, if my post says it's a scenario (rather than a theory), it normally means that I know there are some things in it that aren't supported by known facts. Sorry if this is O/T, but I'm just trying to prevent some future disagreements.

That's a helpful way of explaining it. TY. I don't really see what the problem is here. One can always ask or question posters or scroll and roll and beg to differ. Not a problem, it's semantics as you say.

 

[Confusion]

Can you factually state the exact depth of the water where the alleged crossing took place?

No?

Then your theory is no more factual than other suppositions.

Should the creek narrow in an area, the physics of water flow are such that the volume of flow will determine the increase in depth and be spread uniformly. Water doesnt simply drop a foot or 10 without creating a waterfall effect.

If normally the water in one area is one foot below a sandbar, and the creek raises 3', then that sandbar is only 2' below the water level.

I agree that the water at the sandbars would only rise as much as the rest of the creek no matter how much wider the rest of it is. A bigger problem is the speed of the water moving through the narrow section. If the creek rose 3' as in your example, the sandbar would only be 2' underwater, but the current would be much faster and be much harder to walk through without losing your balance. MOO

 

[Shiressleuth]

With all due respect, we don't know if the witness was on the trail. Given that most sleuther's her agree that this wasn't his first redeo, so I suspect the witness may have been another victim in another location that he was tied to by DNA. Hence, the statement "the victim was close enough to him to say that he did not have blue eyes. My suspicion is that the witness is a victim of another crime he committed involving SA against her and she was afraid to speak up. I suspect LE contacted her when they got the match, hence the delay in her coming forward. I suspect she didn't come forward, but they approached her and she agreed to provide whatever information she could. I also suspect she is still afraid as I would be too. This guy is dangerous to ALL women out there and I can't wait for him to be caught and given the death penalty. I also suspect it took so much time because they had to contact the jurisdiction the 1st crime occurred and then that local LE department had to contact the victim and arrange to provide the information.

Also, IIRC (I could be wrong, please correct me if I am) but I believe they said something along the lines of the sketch went back and forth between LE and the witness. These leads me to believe he is NOT local. I suspect the sketch was a combination of phone conversations and emails, perhaps?

All JMHO and speculation.

Oh how I hope you are right BCA. This could really help but it would mean he (his dna) is not currently in the system so he may not be caught unless he commits another crime.

 

[DeDee]

Please note I am not stating facts, just speculation.<> RSBMFS

Thoughts?

Given the density of the brush, this would be no easy task.

True. Sgt Holeman confirms this fact when mentioning sticker bushes and thick brush being difficult to maneuver through the rough terrain. RL spoke how he couldn't understand how they appeared on his land due to the difficulty of reaching the rugged obscure location. "It was the way they were found", that I shall refrain from speculating upon, that led to the determination that it was indeed a double homicide of young females.

Perp would transport the bodies back to the spot where they were found.
Given the density of the brush, this would be no easy task. To me, this infers the Perp has some level of fitness and strength. It suggests heavy manual labor that requires strength. Lifting.

Either BG can bench press #400s or perhaps a deer sled was used or something similar. BG may be skilled with experience of working at butchering for a market in the food industry due to foraging the woods for food and such as deer, creeks and rivers for fish for the sporting pleasure and out of necessity. But, I cannot get BG, with two [uncooperative] girls, into the frigid temps of water cause it's cold and wet thru there. My mind has trouble allowing BG into -40F Deer Creek that has a strong current around the bend, following a successful capture of his young prey, as BG is a Hunter of the Worst Kind. BG hunts our babies.

If the children weren't murdered where they were found, where did he take them? It couldn't have been far. A shed, a shack?

I can also go along with this circumstance perhaps occurring since we have viewed outbuildings along DC of the sheds, barns, et al. The 1st SW was issued at a BBR property that had a shed with a concrete slab searched. Mearns' barn had a lengthy CSI presence. LE searching for possible abduction sites after BGs successful herding of his victims, then departing the High Bridge area, to an enclosed place, for the BGs purposes, that offered privacy, that even a duck blind made have hidden, if positioned in the woods.

There is so little doubt that BG totally expected the girls, given their location, to be discovered within 24 hours, or less, from 2:30PM, when the criminal activity was about to begin, until 2:30PM on February 14. And, thankfully, yet sadly, they were.

 

[BigCityAccountant]

Oh how I hope you are right BCA. This could really help but it would mean he (his dna) is not currently in the system so he may not be caught unless he commits another crime.

Right and it would mean that he is a Serial rapist/killer. He will be caught and he will be given the death penalty. IIRC from the Amanda Blackburn thread, Indiana does have the death penalty. I'm just hoping it is before he harms another woman or child.

May today be the day!!!

 

[BigCityAccountant]

Talking about the creek...

Have we thought that the crime could have been committed on the other side of the creek and the girls were able to free themselves and crossed the creek and ran to RL's house only to find that he wasn't home. Maybe they hid on his property and the perp found them. I'm not sold on the "down the hill" was at the bridge. IIRC, you have to walk down a hill at RL's house to get to the creek, no? I have thought for sometime now~~that that audio may have occurred by RL's property and not the bridge.

Hiding on his property and knowing that LE was searching the premises would make sense in this scenario.

JMHO

Ok~~open to criticism of my speculation.

 

[Sleuthin' n TX]

I think it's ok to debate BUT we have to be debating facts. Guessing or surmising isn't going to get us where we need to be, which is having this case solved. I think lots of posts are re-posts of prior debated/explored issues and may be time consuming for some, therefore frustrating. Also, people who drop in after extended absences, refresh yourself with the discussions that you missed. Easy peasy! Everyone here is great and although I'm new, I truly enjoy reading these posts! Thanks to all of you for your valued time. IMOO

Sad. I've always viewed WS as a safe place to post theories and bounce ideas off of each other. If you only want us to post facts this thread wouldn't have made to #6 much less #66.

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[MsFacetious]

With all due respect, we don't know if the witness was on the trail. Given that most sleuther's here agree that this wasn't his first redeo, so I suspect the witness may have been another victim in another location that he was tied to by DNA. Hence, the statement "the victim was close enough to him to say that he did not have blue eyes. My suspicion is that the witness is a victim of another crime he committed involving SA against her and she was afraid to speak up. I suspect LE contacted her when they got the match, hence the delay in her coming forward. I suspect she didn't come forward, but they approached her and she agreed to provide whatever information she could. I also suspect she is still afraid as I would be too. This guy is dangerous to ALL women out there and I can't wait for him to be caught and given the death penalty. I also suspect it took so much time because they had to contact the jurisdiction the 1st crime occurred and then that local LE department had to contact the victim and arrange to provide the information.

Also, IIRC (I could be wrong, please correct me if I am) but I believe they said something along the lines of the sketch went back and forth between LE and the witness. These leads me to believe he is NOT local. I suspect the sketch was a combination of phone conversations and emails, perhaps?

All JMHO and speculation.

This is what I had wondered about.
I was afraid I'd missed where they specified the witness was on the trail though.
Good to know I didn't miss that. It would make sense if this was the way it unfolded.

 

[Bird of Paradise]

This is what I had wondered about.
I was afraid I'd missed where they specified the witness was on the trail though.
Good to know I didn't miss that. It would make sense if this was the way it unfolded.

Post #307 in the media thread (link on page one of every thread)

Q. In the release you mentioned some things exactly such as the hair color, can you talk about this at this time

A. Basically, the hair color is a reddish brown. She was, the person was not clear on the color of the eyes, but sh.., the person said it was definitely not blue. She was very obvious..., the person was very obviously not blue eyes, but they did mention that they were not clear on what color it was.

Q. So there are people out there who are sure that are sure they saw this guy walking around this day and they helped you out, it that?

A. Pretty much that's what it is, yes.

Q. Did those people come forward right away, or did it take a little time for those people to come forward.

A. It's been a while. It took a little bit, people are scared, they are afraid to be recognized by the subject, so, it just takes a while for these things to happened. Like I said, the picture did not come overnight, we've been working on this for a while

 

[Gisjoe]

Talking about the creek...

Have we thought that the crime could have been committed on the other side of the creek and the girls were able to free themselves and crossed the creek and ran to RL's house only to find that he wasn't home. Maybe they hid on his property and the perp found them. I'm not sold on the "down the hill" was at the bridge. IIRC, you have to walk down a hill at RL's house to get to the creek, no? I have thought for sometime now~~that that audio may have occurred by RL's property and not the bridge.

Hiding on his property and knowing that LE was searching the premises would make sense in this scenario.

JMHO

Ok~~open to criticism of my speculation.

I have often wondered if the down the hill was somewhere else as well. But I'd think if they were able to get away enough to hide from the perp. They would have called 911. JMO


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[Bird of Paradise]

I have often wondered if the down the hill was somewhere else as well. But I'd think if they were able to get away enough to hide from the perp. They would have called 911. JMO

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The voice didn't sound out of breath either.

 

[gliving]

Sad. I've always viewed WS as a safe place to post theories and bounce ideas off of each other. If you only want us to post facts this thread wouldn't have made to #6 much less #66.

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I'm not sure about this. I've been a member here for years and have been told by mods that if I wanted to post a theory or even toss out an idea, it had to based on some fact of the case. One should be cautious against saying their instincts tell them so and so, or their gut feeling is, or so and so happened to my sister, so this with what happened here, etc. if you can't back it up with facts.

Mods?