IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 #29

[Jacobite]

So, what usually happens after one faints and collapses with Long QT?
Odds are they will be just fine and back to normal in 15 minutes.
Lauren had Long QT. This is the one fact that is in fact a fact in this case.

 

[Ixchel13]

Didn't mean that POIs and Lauren and crew were junkies. What I meant is bad things have happened here to informers, and if drugs are wound up in this disappearance, even from the edges of this disappearance, it wouldn't be a stretch to fear reprisal for
including this, connecting this, to her disappearance either wrongly or rightly.

 

[elmorejames]

OK really? This isn't a powerball jackpot we're talking about. I've heard all kinds of statistics such as you've presented. Of course the odds are very slim that a stranger will abduct you. But as you place yourself nearer to them, meaning a place they will likely be in, a time they
may be out trolling, and then incapacitate yourself and watch those odds change drastically. All this was directly in place IF Lauren was able to leave and did leave.
Let's take this little boy the other day. By the way, I called the police station to get as many details as would be allowed. He had been missing only 12 minutes before the police had him safe. Time: middle of the day with people all around. Place:upscale neighborhood Chance of inebriated people trolling the neighborhood: very slim. Not really a place that someone would be trolling to snatch a kid, but not impossible. All in all, his chance of a stranger abduction was low, and if so, the police could have possibly run the person down on the spot with fast descriptions from the many people around who would have seen the abduction. Police response was excellent.
I totally agree that her friends could be involved in foul play. They are
telling different stories, but as we have agreed, take out the riff raff and the stories are pretty much the same. This could also be the level of drug abuse each one is responsible for. Are they just using or selling? If selling, then they are not going to go into that at all unless they are forced to. Their lawyers are probably telling the LE that when they have enough evidence to charge their client and arrest them, that's when they will tell EVERYTHING they know.
Until then, no more talking.
Look at what we alone have done with the info that they have given. We have tried and convicted them. I don't feel sorry for them. I think they deserve the scrutiny and bad feelings they are getting just because they didn't make sure she got home. But, let's play hot potato for a minute. Plenty of other people had the chance to rein Lauren in but let her go, especially those no good roommates of her's. No one insisted that she stay safely back at SmallWood. People wonder how the altercation got started in the 5th floor lobby near her apt. Well, let's see, I'm willing to bet that HT and BW have something to do with that. Somehow, they come off as victims. This time Lauren went too far my arse, they were up to their eyebrows right along with her and were probably waiting for her to get back. When she didn't show, they should have called the police immediately, IMO, MOO, MHO.

If I remember correctly, BW was back home in NY when this all went down. She was even interviewed with another girl BL who mentioned she was leaving to head to Bloomington to help search after the interview was being filmed. HT maybe, BW I doubt.

 

[CoolJ]

When talking about statistics we have to disregard chance statistics in this case. What I mean by this is that we cannot say " the odds are __% that a person will be abducted". We have to add in the variables. The biggest variable in this case is that she is still missing almost 2 yrs later. So the statistics that give us the "powerball" like chances of being abducted are not relevant here. We would need to know the statistics that tell us the chances that a person missing for 2 yrs was abducted. Does this make sense?

 

[Ixchel13]

If I remember correctly, BW was back home in NY when this all went down. She was even interviewed with another girl BL who mentioned she was leaving to head to Bloomington to help search after the interview was being filmed. HT maybe, BW I doubt.

sorry in advance, yet there were/was other roommate(s) home.

 

[SeeingForThe1stTime]

I'm not really sure about all these stats. I'm a word person, not a numbers person. I do think that the stats being discussed here though are in fact the incorrect stats to be looking at; if you want to be looking at them at all. Discussing stats about how someone could become missing that isn't already missing is pointless. Lauren already IS missing so if you want to consider stats you would really need to be looking at the rate of missing people with known outcome cases who were victims of stranger abduction vs. something else. Then you would have to factor in the vast number of unsolved cases as (x) unknown and at that point it's all beyond me but I would venture to guess that if you look at this statistic the chances of stranger abduction skyrockets. All that being said, given the fact that Lauren already is missing, you can look at the complicated statistics I mention above or the simple and real odds. 50/50. She was abducted by a stranger or she wasn't. In Laurens case, it really is just that simple.

 

[AbbeyR]

One more thing. A witness did indeed stop to help Lauren that night. Yet she did not call 911. Why not? A. Corey Rossman is such a magical charmer that he convinced her she did not see what she saw with her own eyes. B. What she saw was not as severe as is being distorted on this board.

Distorted? Lauren's condition that night is one of the only things about this case that has been documented by enough different sources that it seems pretty clear.

To me, what speaks volumes is that a witness was concerned enough to intervene. Living in an area with a lot of frat houses and students, I can say that no one would bat an eye at a wasted girl stumbling around at night -- there would have to be bigger cause for concern.

The witness did see bigger cause for concern, and the condition she described has been reiterated by the people who saw the videos and other witnesses. Lauren was intoxicated enough to be described by different people as being totally incapacitated, she couldn't walk, no one heard her talk, she fell several times, once without even putting up her hands to block the fall (this is obviously what VV is referring to, she didn't make that part up), and at last sighting sounds like she was at best semi-conscious when she was being dragged, limp over Corey Rossman's shoulder.

When the witness asked if Lauren was okay, CR told her everything was under control and he was taking care of the situation. I don't thing a person would have to be super charming in this situation, only sober enough to give an answer that they were a friend who was already helping the person and look capable of doing so. My guess is that most people in this situation would not intervene further. Ever watch "what would you do" on CNN? They usually have to go to huge lengths to get anyone to react to the scenarios they set up, like having one actor who pretends to be a bystander, roping the real bystanders in -- That's because most people, no matter what the situation, walk right by. When in doubt, people usually opt on the side of not getting involved.

 

[AbbeyR]

All that being said, given the fact that Lauren already is missing, you can look at the complicated statistics I mention above or the simple and real odds. 50/50. She was abducted by a stranger or she wasn't. In Laurens case, it really is just that simple.

But having 2 choices doesn't mean the odds are 50/50...?

The usefulness of stats is pretty limited, but they are a good reminder that all situations are not equally likely.

 

[AbbeyR]

Ixchel,

You've brought up the roommates a few times, but I haven't seen anything or anyone give any reason to suggest they were involved in anything that happened that night. Have you? Just wondering if I'm missing something or if this is just a hunch?

 

[Jacobite]

Distorted? Lauren's condition that night is one of the only things about this case that has been documented by enough different sources that it seems pretty clear.

To me, what speaks volumes is that a witness was concerned enough to intervene. Living in an area with a lot of frat houses and students, I can say that no one would bat an eye at a wasted girl stumbling around at night -- there would have to be bigger cause for concern.

The witness did see bigger cause for concern, and the condition she described has been reiterated by the people who saw the videos and other witnesses. Lauren was intoxicated enough to be described by different people as being totally incapacitated, she couldn't walk, no one heard her talk, she fell several times, once without even putting up her hands to block the fall (this is obviously what VV is referring to, she didn't make that part up), and at last sighting sounds like she was at best semi-conscious when she was being dragged, limp over Corey Rossman's shoulder.

When the witness asked if Lauren was okay, CR told her everything was under control and he was taking care of the situation. I don't thing a person would have to be super charming in this situation, only sober enough to give an answer that they were a friend who was already helping the person and look capable of doing so. My guess is that most people in this situation would not intervene further. Ever watch "what would you do" on CNN? They usually have to go to huge lengths to get anyone to react to the scenarios they set up, like having one actor who pretends to be a bystander, roping the real bystanders in -- That's because most people, no matter what the situation, walk right by. When in doubt, people usually opt on the side of not getting involved.

I am disputing how much of her condition was caused by drugs and alcohol verses her Long QT. That is important because if it was QT? She might have snapped out of it somewhat. However what really rubs me wrong is the term face slam. We do not know if she collapsed or fell head over heels. Big difference. And, her fall was certainly not the last sighting. There were several more cameras in the 2 alleys after 10th and College Apartments.

 

[AbbeyR]

I am disputing how much of her condition was caused by drugs and alcohol verses her Long QT. That is important because if it was QT? She might have snapped out of it somewhat. However what really rubs me wrong is the term face slam. We do not know if she collapsed or fell head over heels. Big difference. And, her fall was certainly not the last sighting. There were several more cameras in the 2 alleys after 10th and College Apartments.

But we really can't know, can we?

We have evidence that gives us a good idea of her physical condition, but how can we assess anything beyond that?

Some of her symptoms might correspond to long QT. They also correspond to being drugged, or taking drugs willingly, and we know that drugs were involved that night, so it could have been due to one or more of these factors. In any case, not sure it matters very much... I'm more concerned with what condition she was in when she was last seen. The questions I think are important and relevant to figuring out what happened are things like:

- was Lauren was able to make decisions, consent to anything, walk or get herself home safely?
- Did anyone give her drugs or alcohol?
- Did she need medical attention or other help?

Also, I'm not sure I'm following why the head slam bothers you? Her fall is described on the Lohud Video, and even the POI say she was getting black eyes, which implies a hit to the face.

 

[SeeingForThe1stTime]

But having 2 choices doesn't mean the odds are 50/50...?

The usefulness of stats is pretty limited, but they are a good reminder that all situations are not equally likely.

I don't doubt that...the whole word person thing and all but just for my own betterment, what else would either she was vs. she wasn't be? I admit I'm pretty daft about math and numbers in general - I also have dyscalculia - but how can 2 choices be anything other than 50/50?


wait. You mean like, 70/30 or 60/40 or whatever? I get it now. Good point. *bonk*

 

[Jacobite]

Agreed. We really need more pieces of the puzzle to solve this case.

 

[AbbeyR]

But wait, just like the inconsistencies in the in MB stories of how LS got over to JR's just how does she get to JR's (especially if it involves going down a set of stairs and then back up another set of stairs) without proving that she can walk? Would that not be quite a bit more of a "walk test" than what he could give her inside of his apt? This leads me to believe that JR knew she could not walk, and so he had to come up with a story to explain that she could walk because others very likely may have seen her falling down. But if he knew she walked down and then back up stairs from CR/MB's to his place that should be proof enough that she could walk unassisted.
MB did not say he carried LS to JR's, and JR did not say he carried LS to his place. CR was supposedly in bed. So, they are both saying LS walked from CR/MB's to JR's. So then why do you need a walk test?

(Snipped for space, and BBM) Yes, this is what I think.

Aside from the PI's account of Lauren's condition, the POI's stories have some classic signs of deception when it comes to a couple key points. The sketchiest and most evasive parts of the stories are how Lauren got from CR and MB's to JR's, and how she left. Both stories originally used the same awkward and distancing language of 'watching Lauren walk away", and when MB changed his story, this part was just omitted and suddenly she was on the couch at JR's. That and, they make no sense.

So, I don't believe she walked out of either apartment on her own, and if she didn't, then they carried her out, or know who did. I also think there's a good chance the POI at 5N were together when Lauren left or was taken out of that apartment, which complicates the scenarios that you describe about who would cover for someone else and why.

[obviously, these are my own thoughts, not trying to pass them off as fact! ]

 

[akh]

When talking about statistics we have to disregard chance statistics in this case. What I mean by this is that we cannot say " the odds are __% that a person will be abducted". We have to add in the variables. The biggest variable in this case is that she is still missing almost 2 yrs later. So the statistics that give us the "powerball" like chances of being abducted are not relevant here. We would need to know the statistics that tell us the chances that a person missing for 2 yrs was abducted. Does this make sense?

We'd also need to know how 'cleared' or 'not cleared' the entire PsOI list is as far as LE is concerned with what they know. While no one close to the case will likely be cleared officially until the case is solved, it's a safe bet to assume some persons are of more interest than others to LE.... although that doesn't mean any of the PsOI are still high on LE's list.

 

[mik1965]

Really weird that HT is a topic of discussion tonight. Just this morning I had an epiphany that she KNOWS what happened. The fact that she said "Lauren went a little too far this time" says that she knows exactly what happened. WHY can't the police bring some of these POIs and even HT in for questioning? I don't understand why they can't question these guys/gals and get their stories individually and see if someone will crack. I honestly think HT knows what happened and possibly even where she is. HT is obviously covering for JR. Another thing I don't understand is why everyone is being quiet. Obviously CR and ZO aren't friends, sk why wouldn't they try and point the finger at each other? Why are all of them being quiet? That boggles my mind!

 

[Dixie811]

Really weird that HT is a topic of discussion tonight. Just this morning I had an epiphany that she KNOWS what happened. The fact that she said "Lauren went a little too far this time" says that she knows exactly what happened. WHY can't the police bring some of these POIs and even HT in for questioning? I don't understand why they can't question these guys/gals and get their stories individually and see if someone will crack. I honestly think HT knows what happened and possibly even where she is. HT is obviously covering for JR. Another thing I don't understand is why everyone is being quiet. Obviously CR and ZO aren't friends, sk why wouldn't they try and point the finger at each other? Why are all of them being quiet? That boggles my mind!

I have also felt that HT knows more than she is saying.

 

[VeryVeritas]

When talking about statistics we have to disregard chance statistics in this case. What I mean by this is that we cannot say " the odds are __% that a person will be abducted". We have to add in the variables. The biggest variable in this case is that she is still missing almost 2 yrs later. So the statistics that give us the "powerball" like chances of being abducted are not relevant here. We would need to know the statistics that tell us the chances that a person missing for 2 yrs was abducted. Does this make sense?

No, we don't have to disregard the statistics. They are what they are.
Random stranger abduction is extremely rare, that is a fact. There is nothing at all(ZERO, not one shread of anything) to point to it. All it does is take focus off of the much more likely possibility that the people who were with her, covered up her death. And there is a great deal pointing to that. We definitely could use some evidence here... and based on LE behavior it seems likely that they have something that indicates it was not a random abduction. The PI's who are much closer to this information and have done their own sniffing did not even hint at such a possibility.

But sure, based on what we know, could a criminal jury convict anyone? no, because you don't send someone to prison unless you have something more concrete. But could these cowards be sued and lose? I think so, there is close to a preponderance of evidence just in public information such that the Spierer's have a better than 50/50 chance of winning a judgement that would be contested for another 10 years. But they are not proceeding with that right now. Why not? Anyone paying attention knows.

 

[AbbeyR]

Really weird that HT is a topic of discussion tonight. Just this morning I had an epiphany that she KNOWS what happened. The fact that she said "Lauren went a little too far this time" says that she knows exactly what happened. WHY can't the police bring some of these POIs and even HT in for questioning? I don't understand why they can't question these guys/gals and get their stories individually and see if someone will crack. I honestly think HT knows what happened and possibly even where she is. HT is obviously covering for JR.

Maybe she knows more. Or maybe she was just used by JR.

Ever wonder why he told his story to the media through HT and not through the team of lawyers he was paying to represent him? Maybe it's because he could say whatever he wanted and not be held accountable for it. Just a thought!

 

[mfunky]

Hi everyone,

I was 21 when Lauren went missing and had just graduated from Michigan State, in which hearing about her disappearance shortly after it happened really got my attention and shook me to the core since so many aspects of that night I lived countless times throughout my years in college. It absolutely saddens me that almost two years later her parents still don't have answers. Anyways, being that I'm obsessed with this case, I've been reading these bulletin boards and finally decided to join in on the discussion.

A couple thoughts:

Judging from the PIs report on LS's condition on the walk back to 5N, LS's condition obviously went from "stumbling around drunk" to barely functioning. Therefore, I'm going to assume whatever happened happened shortly after getting to 5N. My guess is that JR was contacted because things with LS were going downhill faster and faster and faster and CR and MB needed help, or it was too late. By no means do I believe LS was able to engage in conversation by the time JR was involved. I base that conclusion off of the total inconsistencies of MB. He kept changing his story about the last time he saw LS....why lie about that unless there is a reason? Obviously that piece of information plays a key part in putting together the pieces of what happened to LS and who was involved. And with that in mind/further support...

....I don't buy the story of MB putting CR to bed after CR puked, or that LS wanted to keep partying. Yes, I recognize that people do get second winds while partying....but I fail to believe a 90lb girl with a heart condition who quite possibly consumed alcohol / drugs and just sustained scary head injuries would go from barely conscious to wanting to party. If anything, she would be in total agony from hitting her head and would want to sleep. Being that I don't believe this, I don't believe MB contacted JR because LS wanted to keep partying/she knew him better/make her his problem. And this goes back to my initial thought of MBs inconsistencies speaking volumes. This is the part where he can't keep his story straight.

I never believed that LS made the 4:30AM calls from JRs phone. A- If she were alive at this point, I feel as though she would have bigger things to worry about than her phone (i.e- the injuries she sustained on the walk to 5N...). B- If she were alive, I really think she would have just went to sleep. She was probably in and out of consciousness as it was....even if she wasn't, again- HEAD INJURY. She would feel awful and WOULD WANT TO SLEEP. In college I lived about a 10 minute walk home from the bars. It's funny how you can leave the bar feeling so good, yet only a couple minutes later be....not good. One minute you want to keep going, hook up....the next minute all you can think about is getting in your bed and sleeping. And this was just alcohol- can't imagine adding drugs/heart condition/head injuries into the mix.

Another thing I've always found interesting about the phone calls (yes it's circumstantial, but nonetheless interesting) is how no voicemails were left. Obviously if JR placed the calls, he would NOT leave a voicemail indicating what's going on. You know who would though? A drunk person. Drunk people LOVE leaving voicemails. And if LS was really looking for her phone....more reason, on top of being zonked to leave a voicemail.

Sorry for the long post. In closing, I'd just like to add that I believe a lot more answers would have been determined early on if JR was never thrown into the mix by CR and MB. Adding him added so much onto their "stories of what happened"... imagine how different everything would be if the story ended pre-JR involvement. Additionally, I really feel like MB would have been the person LE could have "broken" for information, being that he gave many many variations of the last time he saw Lauren. The only thing from his story I'm going to believe is that he truly was working on papers for school, and was just in the wrong place at the wrong time when all of this happened. However, he chose to move forward in the way he did, so no sympathy here.