Is the fact that Terri hasn't been arrested indicative of lack of evidence?

[Donjeta]

JMO but there might be some repercussions for LE even if they had spent very little money. Obviously with fewer resources devoted to the case the investigation would be more likely to be unproductive than it is now and some people might ask very critically why they're doing nothing to investigate Kyron's case.

 

[Donjeta]

You know, I don't know how much KH knows from his LE briefings, but his latest statement sounds like LE indeed does not have enough evidence, because they still have "holes".

“If we’re not ready, if there are holes, that would be tragic. We can’t afford to let whoever was responsible to get away with it.

There is at least one huge hole and it's the fact that they haven't found Kyron.

 

[pufnstuf]

pufstuf

I'm doped up on Benadryl and not at my linguistic best. Thank you for twice correcting my incorrect usage of the word infers to implies. You are correct and that is what I meant.

LE is implying things about Terri and this investigation to justify their spending. It is my opinion that this investigation has been ultimately unproductive -- Kyron has not been found, no one has been arrested or indicted, and after a million dollars have been spent and 22 LE agencies have been focused on Terri and her friends, nothing has come of it. IMHO, LE isn't waiting for the right moment and this isn't some sort of psychological warfare, they simply don't have the evidence.

You're welcome.

Right now, it's impossible for anyone to say that the investigation is "ultimately unproductive," because, as many including me have said numerous times, we don't know what they know. And they have no duty to share with us what they know, regardless of what anyone thinks.

 

[Billylee]

pufstuf

I'm doped up on Benadryl and not at my linguistic best. Thank you for twice correcting my incorrect usage of the word infers to implies. You are correct and that is what I meant.

LE is implying things about Terri and this investigation to justify their spending. It is my opinion that this investigation has been ultimately unproductive -- Kyron has not been found, no one has been arrested or indicted, and after a million dollars have been spent and 22 LE agencies have been focused on Terri and her friends, nothing has come of it. IMHO, LE isn't waiting for the right moment and this isn't some sort of psychological warfare, they simply don't have the evidence.

Ah yes, benadryl, now there's an OTC drug you can give a child and put them right to sleep! And if Kyron was allergic to bee stings (as I think someone reported somewhere) TH would be familiar with that drug for sure....

back on topic: Isn't it possible that LE knows TH had an accomplice and could not have done certain things because of what her verified time line does cover. Perhaps they have enough to arrest her (probable cause) but not enough to convict, because her accomplice is missing. Would they not wait until they can also arrest the accomplice, so that all the "holes" will be filled, which would make a conviction likely. ??? Does this make any sense?

 

[Calliope]

Ah yes, benadryl, no there's an OTC drug you can give a child and put them right to sleep! And if Kyron was allergic to bee stings (as I think someone reported somewhere) TH would be familiar with that drug for sure....

back on topic: Isn't it possible that LE knows TH had an accomplice and could not have done certain things because of what her verified time line does cover. Perhaps they have enough to arrest her (probable cause) but not enough to convict, because her accomplice is missing. Would they not wait until they can also arrest the accomplice, so that all the "holes" will be filled, which would make a conviction likely. ??? Does this make any sense?

Yes, possibly.

About benadryl, it often makes little ones hyper rather than sleepy.

 

[JBean]

JMO: Maybe or maybe not is the most we can say about that.

There are three kinds of people. The first group is the people who have been arrested and maybe convicted. We can conclude that there was some evidence that they did something criminal, hopefully lots of convincing evidence if they got convicted.

Then the world is packed with persons who are never going to be arrested let alone convicted because there is no evidence that they ever did anything criminal, or at least not enough to make an arrest worth while.

Then there is a minority of people who are going to be arrested and convicted for something later. Every one of them is not arrested before they get arrested and we might ask the same question about them: Is there no evidence because they haven't been arrested yet. We don't know. In a few cases the police may have publicly explained about their evidence before the arrest but mostly they like to keep some cards up their sleeve until they're ready to arrest.

Statistically it is by far the largest probability to belong to the group of people who are never going to be arrested for Kyron's case since there is no evidence against them, but Terri's particular circumstances might make the statistics not very meaningful.

HI donjeta. where are you pulling those stats from? I would guess there are many cases that LE has to build a case prior to arrest. In those cases I would guess that they have enough to arrest but not enough to convict.
I don't mean to say i think this is the case with TH because I do not know if she is a part of this crime at all. My remarks are in general as I just don't have enough info yet to know if they are holding off or if she is not implicated.

 

[Donjeta]

HI donjeta. where are you pulling those stats from?

Just common sense, really. The population of the Portland metropolitan area is about 2.25 million people according to Wikipedia. Worldwide there are about 6.8 billion people. Usually the police arrest just one or two or a few people during an investigation to a single crime, even if they arrest some innocent people by mistake. So the probability of any random person being among the ones who aren't going to be arrested is huge and the probability of being among the ones who are going to be arrested is very tiny in general. But of course it doesn't mean that the police aren't getting ready to arrest a number of people at any given moment.

If you are one of the principal suspects in any given crime your odds of being arrested because they have evidence are a lot bigger than those of the general population.

So, we'd need to know if she is one of the suspects in Kyron's disappearance. Her lawyer said she is, but even so, you can be a suspect for decades and never be arrested because there is not enough evidence. There are crimes in which the police is fairly sure they know who did it but the perps get away with it forever because of lack of proof.

 

[ami]

That statement intrigues me, so far they have guided us in the direction of Terri Horman in every way possible without actually calling her "a person of interest." LE have done a good job with this and indeed many people are ready to lock her up and throw away the key. One would think then that the final pieces of the puzzle are already in their hands and if Terri is the only suspect what possible way could the investigation be compromised.?

We know Terri's movements that day except for a very small window of opportunity, LE may well have information that fills in the gap and maybe they don't, but anything that they have that fills the gap either implicates her or exonerates her. It's difficult to understand how the investigation would be compromised if this became known, unless LE is looking at another person (accomplice or otherwise) and would like to keep this confidential for now.

Well, this has been discussed at length elsewhere but if LE is building a prosecutable case (as they've implied and Kaine has said), they need reliable witnesses, and as many of them as have real info. If they announced to the general public that Terri was seen in X place, or Kyron was seen alive at Y time, then from that point forward they can no longer gain info about those facts from the public. Same goes if they know or suspect an accomplice, know or suspect an area of interest, etc etc.

 

[JBean]

Just common sense, really. The population of the Portland metropolitan area is about 2.25 million people according to Wikipedia. Worldwide there are about 6.8 billion people. Usually the police arrest just one or two or a few people during an investigation to a single crime, even if they arrest some innocent people by mistake. So the probability of any random person being among the ones who aren't going to be arrested is huge and the probability of being among the ones who are going to be arrested is very tiny in general. But of course it doesn't mean that the police aren't getting ready to arrest a number of people at any given moment.

If you are one of the principal suspects in any given crime your odds of being arrested because they have evidence are a lot bigger than those of the general population.

So, we'd need to know if she is one of the suspects in Kyron's disappearance. Her lawyer said she is, but even so, you can be a suspect for decades and never be arrested because there is not enough evidence. There are crimes in which the police is fairly sure they know who did it but the perps get away with it forever because of lack of proof.

Thanks I guess I wasn't clear on what you were saying.

 

[kappy50]

Just common sense, really. The population of the Portland metropolitan area is about 2.25 million people according to Wikipedia. Worldwide there are about 6.8 billion people. Usually the police arrest just one or two or a few people during an investigation to a single crime, even if they arrest some innocent people by mistake. So the probability of any random person being among the ones who aren't going to be arrested is huge and the probability of being among the ones who are going to be arrested is very tiny in general. But of course it doesn't mean that the police aren't getting ready to arrest a number of people at any given moment.

If you are one of the principal suspects in any given crime your odds of being arrested because they have evidence are a lot bigger than those of the general population.

So, we'd need to know if she is one of the suspects in Kyron's disappearance. Her lawyer said she is, but even so, you can be a suspect for decades and never be arrested because there is not enough evidence. There are crimes in which the police is fairly sure they know who did it but the perps get away with it forever because of lack of proof.

My My...shame on LE....She's ALWAYS been the focus...which really trips my trigger...no one else...Absolutley no one else...scares me...I know nothing of her guilt or innocence...or anyone else's for that matter...but come on...And her attorneys have absolutley named her a suspect? A for real suspect ??? did I miss something Thx's D... I always appreciate your posts and insight...

 

[pufnstuf]

My My...shame on LE....She's ALWAYS been the focus...which really trips my trigger...no one else...Absolutley no one else...scares me...I know nothing of her guilt or innocence...or anyone else's for that matter...but come on...And her attorneys have absolutley named her a suspect? A for real suspect ??? did I miss something Thx's D... I always appreciate your posts and insight...

She really trips my trigger, too. I'm just glad that her CSI-watching self wasn't as flawless in her plan as she thought she had been. Her mistakes are what pointed to her as the perp, so LE knew where to focus.

All my opinion.

 

[Donjeta]

My My...shame on LE....She's ALWAYS been the focus...which really trips my trigger...no one else...Absolutley no one else...scares me...I know nothing of her guilt or innocence...or anyone else's for that matter...but come on...And her attorneys have absolutley named her a suspect? A for real suspect ??? did I miss something Thx's D... I always appreciate your posts and insight...

Bunch says she is a "de facto suspect" which basically means that she is in fact a suspect although not officially named as one.

De facto is a Latin expression that means "by [the] fact". In law, it is meant to mean "in practice but not necessarily ordained by law" or "in practice or actuality, but without being officially established". It is commonly used in contrast to de jure (which means "concerning the law") when referring to matters of law, governance, or technique (such as standards) that are found in the common experience as created or developed without or contrary to a regulation. When discussing a legal situation, de jure designates what the law says, while de facto designates action of what happens in practice. It is analogous and similar to the expressions "for all intents and purposes" or "in fact".

[ame]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_facto[/ame]

 

[nurseratchett]

I don't think no arrest yet means there is a lack of evidence at all. I think, as Kaine implied, we don't want to take a chance there will be any "holes". How can one expect to obtain a conviction and appropriate sentencing in a capital murder case if they become sloppy and in a rush simply to placate the vociferous taxpayers of Multnomah County and Oregon?
Living locally, the money and time it is taking does not really seem to be as much of an issue as non locals might suppose. Water cooler chatter has it about 8 to 2 in favor of spending what needs to be spent...I work in a hospital, so not sure what they'd say at a brokerage??
Yes, you see comments in the paper, or on some websites, but keep in mind, this is a small minority that would be kvetching about whatever the current expose of the day is.

People in Oregon are known for being "polite". I think the elephant in the room is that people do not want to mention that LE has not found a body yet.
And, they're worried he may not be found, in which case, what happens next. How can we, collectively as a community, prosecute "someone" without a body.
No one wants to discuss that though, out of deference to the family.

All IMO, of course.

 

[Calliope]

Bunch says she is a "de facto suspect" which basically means that she is in fact a suspect although not officially named as one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_facto

IMO, he's saying she's being treated as a suspect.

 

[Aedrys]

JMO but there might be some repercussions for LE even if they had spent very little money. Obviously with fewer resources devoted to the case the investigation would be more likely to be unproductive than it is now and some people might ask very critically why they're doing nothing to investigate Kyron's case.

And the bigger issue I see is that perpetrator of this crime, which probably is Terri, is not talking and saying where this little boy is, and instead forcing LE to spend millions of dollars to find him. My anger is at that person, not LE. I think what LE doesn't have is Kyron, and there's not willing to prosecute until they have him. I think the whole problem is that he has disappeared into thin air, and LE has to keep spending money on looking everywhere they can for him. Would everyone rather they stop so no more money is spent and Kyron is never found? I know I don't feel that way.

Yes, it's aggravating not to know what they have, and it's easier to think they're messing up this case because why else be so quiet, but I have a lot of faith in LE. They are working hard, they are building a solid case, and they are not going to let whoever did this get away with it no matter how high priced of a lawyer they have. I'd rather that than a sloppy investigation, a quick arrest, and then an acquittal because LE didn't do their job properly. A good investigation, unfortunately, takes TIME and MONEY.

 

[BeanE]

This is my understanding and opinion. IANAL.

- In order to make an arrest, there must be sufficient probable cause.

- In every state in the U.S., once arrested, a person must be charged within 72 hours, or let go.

- In order to charge a person who's been arrested, there must be sufficient probable cause.

- DAs don't like to charge a person unless they are reasonably confident they can gain a conviction.

- Convicting someone takes evidence (and a whole lot more, but this thread topic is dealing with evidence only).

- Some states require a Grand Jury indictment before charging a person with certain crimes.

- Gaining an indictment from a Grand Jury is much easier for a DA than gaining a conviction at trial.

- A Grand Jury can indict a ham sandwich. I'm not aware of any ham sandwiches that have been arrested, charged, or tried.

- Neither LE nor DA always reveal all the inculpatory evidence they have. DAs like to save it for the trial, because if they reveal it prior to trial, the defense has more time and opportunity to determine how best to refute it. If the defense can successfully refute evidence, the DA may not gain a conviction.

- There are certain instances in which there may be all three (or four) elements: enough probable cause for an arrest, enough probable cause to charge, an indictment by a Grand Jury, and/or enough evidence that the DA feels confident of gaining a conviction, but a choice is made to delay arresting/charging the person.

- Given the above and my knowledge of Kyron's case, I do not think there is enough probable cause to arrest and/or charge Terri, nor do I think there is currently evidence that leads the DA to feel confident of gaining a conviction.

I think they may have some evidence, but are missing key evidence, specifically, evidence that will support charges of custodial interference, kidnapping, child abuse or neglect, or homicide. Lacking that specific key evidence, I don't think there are any other charges that can be brought against Terri at this time.

Even more specifically, I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that there is sufficient evidence that Terri took Kyron from the school to support charges of custodial interference, kidnapping, child abuse, or child neglect. If, however, Desiree was correct that a witness saw Kyron outside the school near the Horman truck, and if that witness proves credible, I think there is a small chance that the DA may try for one or more of these charges, but I think it would be difficult for the DA to gain a conviction, because I think it would be difficult to prove it was Terri who drove the truck away, and that Kyron was in it.

I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that there is sufficient evidence that Terri abused or neglected Kyron within the parameters of the law. In fact, both Kaine and Desiree have made statements that indicate to me that neither of them believe that Terri abused or neglected Kyron, but rather took at least adequate care of him. However, I think a charge of child abuse or neglect could be considered based on depriving Kyron of the normal care etc of his biological parents with whom he had established relationships. I don't really know though since IANAL.

I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that there is sufficient evidence that Kyron is deceased, and that his death was by homicide. In fact, LE stated (reference Aug 11 LE/DA press conference, Captain Gates) that LE has "received" no evidence that indicates Kyron is not alive. One of the elements of homicide in Oregon is that the person is deceased. It may be possible to convince a jury that a child Kyron's age can not survive on his own, and that there is no evidence that anyone is caring for him in a manner that would sustain his life. I don't know because IANAL.

 

[Billylee]

Well put BeanE, but what is IANAL?

 

[gwenabob]

Well put BeanE, but what is IANAL?

I am not a lawyer.

 

[Scamperoo]

Well, this has been discussed at length elsewhere but if LE is building a prosecutable case (as they've implied and Kaine has said), they need reliable witnesses, and as many of them as have real info. If they announced to the general public that Terri was seen in X place, or Kyron was seen alive at Y time, then from that point forward they can no longer gain info about those facts from the public. Same goes if they know or suspect an accomplice, know or suspect an area of interest, etc etc.

Most of everything about this case has been discussed at length elsewhere that is why we are here.

If they announced to the general public that Terri was seen in X place, or Kyron was seen alive at Y time, then from that point forward they can no longer gain info about those facts from the public.

That information could well jog the public's collective memory without compromising the case. As to no longer being able to gain info please explain how that would be? If they had the info already it wouldn't become less because we were aware of it, it would remain the same or maybe jog others memories by recounting the information. I'm sure if there are any witnesses they are aware of who they are at this point.

Or as I said before, they are looking at more than one person, an accomplice or otherwise and need to keep this information undisclosed at this time. Which change the dynamics somewhat.

 

[Skully]

This is my understanding and opinion. IANAL.

- In order to make an arrest, there must be sufficient probable cause.

- In every state in the U.S., once arrested, a person must be charged within 72 hours, or let go.

- In order to charge a person who's been arrested, there must be sufficient probable cause.

- DAs don't like to charge a person unless they are reasonably confident they can gain a conviction.

- Convicting someone takes evidence (and a whole lot more, but this thread topic is dealing with evidence only).

- Some states require a Grand Jury indictment before charging a person with certain crimes.

- Gaining an indictment from a Grand Jury is much easier for a DA than gaining a conviction at trial.

- A Grand Jury can indict a ham sandwich. I'm not aware of any ham sandwiches that have been arrested, charged, or tried.

- Neither LE nor DA always reveal all the inculpatory evidence they have. DAs like to save it for the trial, because if they reveal it prior to trial, the defense has more time and opportunity to determine how best to refute it. If the defense can successfully refute evidence, the DA may not gain a conviction.

- There are certain instances in which there may be all three (or four) elements: enough probable cause for an arrest, enough probable cause to charge, an indictment by a Grand Jury, and/or enough evidence that the DA feels confident of gaining a conviction, but a choice is made to delay arresting/charging the person.

- Given the above and my knowledge of Kyron's case, I do not think there is enough probable cause to arrest and/or charge Terri, nor do I think there is currently evidence that leads the DA to feel confident of gaining a conviction.

I think they may have some evidence, but are missing key evidence, specifically, evidence that will support charges of custodial interference, kidnapping, child abuse or neglect, or homicide. Lacking that specific key evidence, I don't think there are any other charges that can be brought against Terri at this time.

Even more specifically, I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that there is sufficient evidence that Terri took Kyron from the school to support charges of custodial interference, kidnapping, child abuse, or child neglect. If, however, Desiree was correct that a witness saw Kyron outside the school near the Horman truck, and if that witness proves credible, I think there is a small chance that the DA may try for one or more of these charges, but I think it would be difficult for the DA to gain a conviction, because I think it would be difficult to prove it was Terri who drove the truck away, and that Kyron was in it.

I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that there is sufficient evidence that Terri abused or neglected Kyron within the parameters of the law. In fact, both Kaine and Desiree have made statements that indicate to me that neither of them believe that Terri abused or neglected Kyron, but rather took at least adequate care of him. However, I think a charge of child abuse or neglect could be considered based on depriving Kyron of the normal care etc of his biological parents with whom he had established relationships. I don't really know though since IANAL.

I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that there is sufficient evidence that Kyron is deceased, and that his death was by homicide. In fact, LE stated (reference Aug 11 LE/DA press conference, Captain Gates) that LE has "received" no evidence that indicates Kyron is not alive. One of the elements of homicide in Oregon is that the person is deceased. It may be possible to convince a jury that a child Kyron's age can not survive on his own, and that there is no evidence that anyone is caring for him in a manner that would sustain his life. I don't know because IANAL.

Great post Bean,

I have struggled with Motive, Opportunity and Means for some time now.

One could say the motive was to get back at KH, but then it gets muddy for opportunity and means. She had a baby with her, and like you said there is no evidence that he is dead, no blood in the truck, no weapon found with blood, no past history of abuse, nothing. The only thing that points to her in my mind is her odd behavior to all of this.