Israel Keyes: General Discussion

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wow, that would fit with a suspicion i've had for awhile now that he was responsible for the murder of pastor Carol Daniels in Anadarko, OK...

Carol Daniels is part of the rationale behind that time frame, I have a suspicion he might have been responsible for that too.

But here’s the full thing: I think it’s likely that he committed a murder and possibly a couple robberies in Minnesota/Wisconsin in January 2010, and based on his patterns and his timeline August 09 seems like a time when he could have “set up shop” in that region.

The FBI have been cagey about Keyes’ presence in all three places - WI/MN, OK, NM - and driving from the former to the latter is a pretty straight shot that goes straight through OKC.

AND if you buy into the possibility that Keyes murdered Rose Bly (I am iffy on this but think it’s possible) she disappeared in Wisconsin a couple days before Carol Daniels was murdered.

I don’t think it’s especially likely that he killed either of them, but I think both are possible, and if he did one he probably did both.

So there are a lot of things about that timeframe and sequence that make some sense to me, but to be clear there’s no hard evidence that he was around there at that time - like I said it’s just a guess/theory.

Eta: I should add that I am pretty confident of the January 2010 murder in Minnesota, much more so than either of the aforementioned ones.

 

[MesquiteO21]

Carol Daniels is part of the rationale behind that time frame, I have a suspicion he might have been responsible for that too.

But here’s the full thing: I think it’s likely that he committed a murder and possibly a couple robberies in Minnesota/Wisconsin in January 2010, and based on his patterns and his timeline August 09 seems like a time when he could have “set up shop” in that region.

The FBI have been cagey about Keyes’ presence in all three places - WI/MN, OK, NM - and driving from the former to the latter is a pretty straight shot that goes straight through OKC.

AND if you buy into the possibility that Keyes murdered Rose Bly (I am iffy on this but think it’s possible) she disappeared in Wisconsin a couple days before Carol Daniels was murdered.

I don’t think it’s especially likely that he killed either of them, but I think both are possible, and if he did one he probably did both.

So there are a lot of things about that timeframe and sequence that make some sense to me, but to be clear there’s no hard evidence that he was around there at that time - like I said it’s just a guess/theory.

Eta: I should add that I am pretty confident of the January 2010 murder in Minnesota, much more so than either of the aforementioned ones.

what was the January 2010 MN murder?

i too have thought IK had to have done something in Minnesota given his friend in the army that was from MN and he was a huge Vikings fan, etc (not a great endorsement for the Vikings lol). Plus, like you mentioned, the FBI has been extremely mum on his MN whereabouts except i believe just one brief connecting flight in Minneapolis. No way that was the only time he was in the state.

the one i think and have been very vocal about? Brandon Swanson (May 2008). there's just SO much there that fits with Keyes.

 

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Eric Peterson, last seen 1/19/10.

What possibly places Keyes in the area at the time are some pretty credible sightings at a Vikings game a couple days before Eric disappeared.

 

[MesquiteO21]

Carol Daniels is part of the rationale behind that time frame, I have a suspicion he might have been responsible for that too.

But here’s the full thing: I think it’s likely that he committed a murder and possibly a couple robberies in Minnesota/Wisconsin in January 2010, and based on his patterns and his timeline August 09 seems like a time when he could have “set up shop” in that region.

The FBI have been cagey about Keyes’ presence in all three places - WI/MN, OK, NM - and driving from the former to the latter is a pretty straight shot that goes straight through OKC.

AND if you buy into the possibility that Keyes murdered Rose Bly (I am iffy on this but think it’s possible) she disappeared in Wisconsin a couple days before Carol Daniels was murdered.

I don’t think it’s especially likely that he killed either of them, but I think both are possible, and if he did one he probably did both.

So there are a lot of things about that timeframe and sequence that make some sense to me, but to be clear there’s no hard evidence that he was around there at that time - like I said it’s just a guess/theory.

Eta: I should add that I am pretty confident of the January 2010 murder in Minnesota, much more so than either of the aforementioned ones.

as far as Carol, it's just interesting that Keyes supposedly fantasized about killing a pastor in a church and also wanted to commit a crime near a police station as a way of taunting them. He also favored small towns.

i suppose, though, we can't rule out the possibility that Keyes saw the news about it and would maybe have wanted us to think he was responsible for it. Other killers have falsely claimed credit for crimes, and Keyes of course can't be wholly trusted.

the Anadarko police said they had 2 suspects but robbery seems like a rather flimsy motive for a small church that barely even had a congregation as i understand it. and then for a robbery gone wrong seems also like a stretch to spend so much time violating the body by removing clothes, the bleach, posing, etc. even if they wanted to make it look like it wasn't a robbery. so i don't know.

 

[MesquiteO21]

DBM - accidental duplicate post

 

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DBM - accidental duplicate post

Keyes’ description of his church murder plan is SO similar to Carol Daniels that part of me thinks if he’d done it he wouldn’t have ever said that to the FBI for fear that they’d draw a direct line to him.

But there’s an equally big part of me that thinks whoever killed her was an extremely experienced murderer, and Keyes was about as experienced as it gets and can’t be placed elsewhere as far as I know.

As to Brandon Swanson, I thought for a long time there was no chance at all Keyes was involved. I still don’t think he was, I just don’t see a ton of Keyes indicators in his disappearance, but I am a lot more open to it than I used to be.

 

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the one i think and have been very vocal about? Brandon Swanson (May 2008). there's just SO much there that fits with Keyes.

SBM one thing I will say about Brandon Swanson though, TCBS does have him on their list of potential victims.

They haven’t talked about his case except in passing that I can remember, but I do think his inclusion on the list is notable in that he might be literally the only person on the list where there is no indication that Keyes has ever been even in the very general vicinity (say, 100 miles), even just passing through, of where they disappeared.

That lack of activity in the area is one of the main problems I have with Keyes being responsible, and I’m really curious what their rationale is for his inclusion!

 

[MesquiteO21]

Keyes’ description of his church murder plan is SO similar to Carol Daniels that part of me thinks if he’d done it he wouldn’t have ever said that to the FBI for fear that they’d draw a direct line to him.

But there’s an equally big part of me that thinks whoever killed her was an extremely experienced murderer, and Keyes was about as experienced as it gets and can’t be placed elsewhere as far as I know.

As to Brandon Swanson, I thought for a long time there was no chance at all Keyes was involved. I still don’t think he was, I just don’t see a ton of Keyes indicators in his disappearance, but I am a lot more open to it than I used to be.

i could be wrong about BS but:

1. IK was very into gambling and appears to possibly have committed crimes near, or in the radius of, casinos. There are about a dozen casinos near Lynd and/or Marshall.
2. IK was familiar with and frequently used County Route 3. Brandon's call had been routed through a tower at the intersection of County Routes 3 and 10.
3. there's evidence that IK returned to a place within a year of the crime: the public FBI timeline has him in Minneapolis late October 2008.
4. IK liked to move his victims' cars: Brandon's car was not in the location that he had told his parents it had been when he was on the phone with them. This has always been chalked up to being Brandon's mistake not knowing where he was, but was it?
5. the car was located in Taunton...sick IK joke since it's close to/sounds like 'taunting'?
6. there's another possible Keyes victim (can't remember the name) i believe in Texas just before he was caught and his glasses were found placed in his abandoned vehicle. Brandon's glasses were also found in his vehicle which just makes absolutely no sense given that he was legally blind in one eye and was trying to find his parents

it's also worth noting that Brandon is listed in ViCAP (the FBI's violent criminal apprehension program). Now, i don't know exactly what the criteria is for the FBI listing a missing person in ViCAP but i'm sure they probably have to have some sort of evidence or suspicion. The general thought was/is that Brandon encountered an accident somewhere, maybe on a farm but...the ViCAP listing is interesting.

 

[MesquiteO21]

SBM one thing I will say about Brandon Swanson though, TCBS does have him on their list of potential victims.

They haven’t talked about his case except in passing that I can remember, but I do think his inclusion on the list is notable in that he might be literally the only person on the list where there is no indication that Keyes has ever been even in the very general vicinity (say, 100 miles), even just passing through, of where they disappeared.

That lack of activity in the area is one of the main problems I have with Keyes being responsible, and I’m really curious what their rationale is for his inclusion!

i actually emailed Josh a few years ago about my suspicion that BS could be a victim. I didn't hear back but maybe he just put it on the list as a reminder to look into it. Some of my suspicions came directly from the things he mentioned on the podcast like the gambling/casino thing.

 

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i actually emailed Josh a few years ago about my suspicion that BS could be a victim. I didn't hear back but maybe he just put it on the list as a reminder to look into it. Some of my suspicions came directly from the things he mentioned on the podcast like the gambling/casino thing.

When I say “the list” I mean on his actual timeline on the website, I don’t think he puts names on that as placeholders, those are cases that are not necessarily “likely” victims but ones he’s at least genuinely considering. A LOT of “potential victims” are mentioned on the podcast that aren’t on the timeline, but Brandon is on there.

And yeah I’ve definitely emailed Josh about cases that subsequently popped up on the podcast/timeline. I think Rose Bly - who is NOT on the timeline despite being discussed extensively on the podcast - was one of them. Although I doubt my emails had much if anything to do with their inclusion haha

 

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i could be wrong about BS but:

1. IK was very into gambling and appears to possibly have committed crimes near, or in the radius of, casinos. There are about a dozen casinos near Lynd and/or Marshall.
2. IK was familiar with and frequently used County Route 3. Brandon's call had been routed through a tower at the intersection of County Routes 3 and 10.
3. there's evidence that IK returned to a place within a year of the crime: the public FBI timeline has him in Minneapolis late October 2008.
4. IK liked to move his victims' cars: Brandon's car was not in the location that he had told his parents it had been when he was on the phone with them. This has always been chalked up to being Brandon's mistake not knowing where he was, but was it?
5. the car was located in Taunton...sick IK joke since it's close to/sounds like 'taunting'?
6. there's another possible Keyes victim (can't remember the name) i believe in Texas just before he was caught and his glasses were found placed in his abandoned vehicle. Brandon's glasses were also found in his vehicle which just makes absolutely no sense given that he was legally blind in one eye and was trying to find his parents

it's also worth noting that Brandon is listed in ViCAP (the FBI's violent criminal apprehension program). Now, i don't know exactly what the criteria is for the FBI listing a missing person in ViCAP but i'm sure they probably have to have some sort of evidence or suspicion. The general thought was/is that Brandon encountered an accident somewhere, maybe on a farm but...the ViCAP listing is interesting.

The most interesting things here by far are the casinos and the vicap thing. I did not know about either of those, food for thought for sure.

Where did you hear about Keyes using Minnesota route 3? I knew he used US 2 a lot which goes thru MN but way further north, the only route 3 I know of him frequenting is the one in New York.

 

[MesquiteO21]

The most interesting things here by far are the casinos and the vicap thing. I did not know about either of those, food for thought for sure.

Where did you hear about Keyes using Minnesota route 3? I knew he used US 2 a lot which goes thru MN but way further north, the only route 3 I know of him frequenting is the one in New York.

Wait hang on you might be right…maybe I was thinking of NY. I’m gonna look into this now again

 

[Falling Down]

Wait hang on you might be right…maybe I was thinking of NY. I’m gonna look into this now again

He was familiar with a lot of the back roads here in NY, 3 was one of them. 30 was another, both state roads. He liked his back roads.

 

[MesquiteO21]

The most interesting things here by far are the casinos and the vicap thing. I did not know about either of those, food for thought for sure.

Where did you hear about Keyes using Minnesota route 3? I knew he used US 2 a lot which goes thru MN but way further north, the only route 3 I know of him frequenting is the one in New York.

I wish I knew when exactly they put him on ViCAP. I’ve tried to figure it out before but couldn’t find anything. Because if he wasn’t on it pre-Keyes capture but was on there after all the Keyes interviews I mean…

(Brian Schaefer is another one I know is on ViCAP and I’ve floated the idea of IK being involved but I’m a lot less sure than about Brandon. But I do think it could be a possibility)

 

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I wish I knew when exactly they put him on ViCAP. I’ve tried to figure it out before but couldn’t find anything. Because if he wasn’t on it pre-Keyes capture but was on there after all the Keyes interviews I mean…

(Brian Schaefer is another one I know is on ViCAP and I’ve floated the idea of IK being involved but I’m a lot less sure than about Brandon. But I do think it could be a possibility)

Brian Shaffer huh. Never thought about that case in relation to Keyes before.

That’s an interesting one because there’s not really ANY explanation that makes sense to me, so in the absence of that I guess why not Keyes?

There’s not much in that case that looks like Keyes to me, but if I squint there’s also not much that precludes him from being responsible, and the timeline and geography both just barely work for me.

As with Brandon, I don’t think it was Keyes, but it sure isn’t impossible.

 

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He was familiar with a lot of the back roads here in NY, 3 was one of them. 30 was another, both state roads. He liked his back roads.

I wish I knew when exactly they put him on ViCAP. I’ve tried to figure it out before but couldn’t find anything. Because if he wasn’t on it pre-Keyes capture but was on there after all the Keyes interviews I mean…

(Brian Schaefer is another one I know is on ViCAP and I’ve floated the idea of IK being involved but I’m a lot less sure than about Brandon. But I do think it could be a possibility)

Kinda bouncing off both of these, I do generally believe Keyes when he said most of his murders didn’t get much press, so I don’t usually look too hard at him when it comes to real well known disappearances, but…

One I really wonder about because (as with Shaffer, and maybe even more so) there is no rational explanation at all for, plus it occurred right along NY 30, is Craig Frear.

 

[MesquiteO21]

Brian Shaffer huh. Never thought about that case in relation to Keyes before.

That’s an interesting one because there’s not really ANY explanation that makes sense to me, so in the absence of that I guess why not Keyes?

There’s not much in that case that looks like Keyes to me, but if I squint there’s also not much that precludes him from being responsible, and the timeline and geography both just barely work for me.

yeah it's been more of just kind of a passing thought about Brian, i don't really have a lot to back it up either so not sure how strongly I believe it. It's just that we know IK had a lot of ties in Indiana with family and burying kill kits, and Columbus isn't terribly far from many places in IN. I've also had trouble placing him anywhere in Ohio which is what he would've wanted of course. And like Brandon, Brian being on ViCAP is interesting. I've seen ViCAP described as a database for serial crimes though i don't think it's solely that. Plus, the thing he mentioned about his victims being assumed to have had an accident which is a theory i've seen somewhat frequently for Brian.

Then again, Brian really got A LOT of coverage which according to Keyes wasn't typical for his victims. It's one of the reasons ive been slightly skeptical about Lauren Spierer though i do think there's a lot there to suggest Keyes as well. And i think it's possible that more than one of his victims did in fact get considerable media coverage.

(Brian's size also makes me somewhat doubtful Keyes was involved. Doesn't make it impossible, but he was decently big -- not fat -- but tall and muscular. Brandon on the other hand was on the shorter side for a male and was thin so that's another thing to consider)

 

[MesquiteO21]

yeah it's been more of just kind of a passing thought about Brian, i don't really have a lot to back it up either so not sure how strongly I believe it. It's just that we know IK had a lot of ties in Indiana with family and burying kill kits, and Columbus isn't terribly far from many places in IN. I've also had trouble placing him anywhere in Ohio which is what he would've wanted of course. And like Brandon, Brian being on ViCAP is interesting. I've seen ViCAP described as a database for serial crimes though i don't think it's solely that. Plus, the thing he mentioned about his victims being assumed to have had an accident which is a theory i've seen somewhat frequently for Brian.

Then again, Brian really got A LOT of coverage which according to Keyes wasn't typical for his victims. It's one of the reasons ive been slightly skeptical about Lauren Spierer though i do think there's a lot there to suggest Keyes as well. And i think it's possible that more than one of his victims did in fact get considerable media coverage.

(Brian's size also makes me somewhat doubtful Keyes was involved. Doesn't make it impossible, but he was decently big -- not fat -- but tall and muscular. Brandon on the other hand was on the shorter side for a male and was thin so that's another thing to consider)

I forgot to mention: I know this is a little out there and obviously hardly a smoking gun, but remember when Brian’s dad passed away two years after his disappearance and someone wrote on the obituary page pretending to be Brian? Saying something like I’ll miss you dad signed from some Caribbean location…That’s absolutely something Keyes would do, and we know he did sometimes post on various sites related to his crimes and kept up with the theories.

Like I said, on its own it’s a rather weak point since there are a lot of screwed up people out there who would do the same thing just to mess with the family and LE. But I also totally see it being Keyes as well. I believe they traced the posting to some public library in Ohio. I’m sure some random prankster would also do that, but can’t rule out that Keyes would think to do this so to be untraceable.

 

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yeah it's been more of just kind of a passing thought about Brian, i don't really have a lot to back it up either so not sure how strongly I believe it. It's just that we know IK had a lot of ties in Indiana with family and burying kill kits, and Columbus isn't terribly far from many places in IN. I've also had trouble placing him anywhere in Ohio which is what he would've wanted of course. And like Brandon, Brian being on ViCAP is interesting. I've seen ViCAP described as a database for serial crimes though i don't think it's solely that. Plus, the thing he mentioned about his victims being assumed to have had an accident which is a theory i've seen somewhat frequently for Brian.

Then again, Brian really got A LOT of coverage which according to Keyes wasn't typical for his victims. It's one of the reasons ive been slightly skeptical about Lauren Spierer though i do think there's a lot there to suggest Keyes as well. And i think it's possible that more than one of his victims did in fact get considerable media coverage.

(Brian's size also makes me somewhat doubtful Keyes was involved. Doesn't make it impossible, but he was decently big -- not fat -- but tall and muscular. Brandon on the other hand was on the shorter side for a male and was thin so that's another thing to consider)

Keyes said (if we are to believe him) that he started liking publicity specifically after the trip where he murdered the Curriers. The Curriers did NOT get a lot of press, but Lauren Spierer disappeared while he was on the same trip.

I do think there’s a strong possibility Keyes killed Lauren, like more than 50/50. And I also agree that he very well could have had a couple of other victims that got quite a bit of coverage.

Eta: Keyes almost certainly passed thru Ohio on the Currier trip, but the one time I know of for sure he can be placed there was the luggage cart transaction in Cleveland, 11/28/07.

 

[MesquiteO21]

Keyes said (if we are to believe him) that he started liking publicity specifically after the trip where he murdered the Curriers. The Curriers did NOT get a lot of press, but Lauren Spierer disappeared while he was on the same trip.

I do think there’s a strong possibility Keyes killed Lauren, like more than 50/50. And I also agree that he very well could have had a couple of other victims that got quite a bit of coverage.

Eta: Keyes almost certainly passed thru Ohio on the Currier trip, but the one time I know of for sure he can be placed there was the luggage cart transaction in Cleveland, 11/28/07.

aside from the publicity thing, another reason i'm skeptical of his involvement in Lauren's disappearance is the documentation of him using toll roads in Indiana on 6/3/11. Paper trails are exactly what he took great pains to avoid, so letting himself be "caught" in the state on the day she disappeared bothers me. But, i suppose it's possible that may have been the beginning of the end for him since he was caught only 9 months later. Maybe he realized his mistake and was upset and stressed and that led to what happened to the Curriers? idk...trying to follow the thought processes of a serial killer is difficult