First, I'd like to thank you for the absolute amazing work you've done on this case and the amount of info you have gathered. As I said, I've always been fascinated by this case, but it wasn't exactly a popular discussion years ago in Western media and forums and there was no-one to talk to about it. Thankfully I see it getting more and more attention and it's because of the work people like you have done in bringing it to people's attention. So again - thank you
Much appreciated,
@femto. As you say, there is such a dearth of English-language reporting on this case. And 99.9% of what is out there is a copy of a copy of a flawed / poorly-translated original. Even some of the major podcast titles covering these murders are filled with mistakes (due to this very reason). So yes, it was well overdue that a long-form podcast on this case was made. I'm glad people found FACELESS informative and I'm grateful for your words.
1. Correct me if I'm wrong but looking on google maps in the earliest possible years, there's two grounds that can be used as skateparks. One to the side of the house and one directly behind it's back from where the killer came from. In the pictures from 2001 the area appears to be virtually the same. Kids playgrounds are often used for skating, so it's not out of the question for skaters to have used it.
I appreciate your thoughts on this, even if we disagree on a lot. You raise many good points and I'll do my best to answer each one. You'll see in my responses, I'll raise a lot of questions. To be clear, they're rhetorical. No need to reply. At any rate, as I'm facing a deadline, even if you had further responses, it's unlikely I'll have further comment for you on this.
The skatepark is across from the house. The playground is for kids which is directly behind it. Could you use that for skating? I suppose so but that's something I've never seen on any of the occasions I went there / never heard of in the conversations I've had. The first image below is of the skatepark. The second is its relation to the Miyazawa home:
You can see the house to the left. I've seen skaters/cyclists etc using that whole open space. The layout has changed down the years but all the skaters I spoke to said they would bring their own equipment to create their lines etc. Back in 2000, skating was generally frowned on in Japan and, short of going guerilla-style through the streets, spots like these were cherished. The playground directly behind the house I believe you're referring to is the Choo-Choo Park. So yeah, I can't say that skaters
never used it to skate. But everyone I spoke to was referring to the space in the pictures. Guess I don't see much point using the playground when there's a dedicated space a few steps away? It's irrelevant, either way.
2. While that is news to me, here's my thoughts - How many skaters have they chased down (obviously you wouldn't know), but it couldn't be that many. Furthermore, how do we know if this guy was a loner or part of a skater group? There's virtually no way to chase them down unless the area had CCTV which I'm pretty sure it didn't have. They might have eliminated the most active regulars in that park, but people who might have visited once or twice and weren't that known in the community - definitely not. Because for all intents and purposes they might have just been passing down. Tokyo is a huge city, the biggest in the world, there's way more than enough playgrounds for skaters to hang out.
"It couldn't be that many."
Why not? Based on what? With all respect, I believe you're wrong. Obviously, I can't tell you the total figure of skaters the TMPD have questioned. But I can tell you that I've spoken to a number of them that were interviewed and they told me the same story: the detectives wanted only two things. 1) their fingerprints to eliminate them. 2)
Names, names, names. Detectives came with print-outs from skating videos and skate magazines, they came with long lists.
Do you know X, do you know Y, tell us where we can we find Z. So, clearly, it
could be that many.
To date, the TMPD has fingerprinted over 1 million men. They've had 280,000 personnel on this case in the last 24 years. Why couldn't they have chased down many skaters? Why not thousands, if they felt like it? The TMPD is the largest and, as I understand it, best-funded metro police force on earth. What conceivable reason could there be for them NOT chasing down skaters? Tokyo being big or there being other skate parks doesn't seem like a factor to me. Of course, I'm not saying they interviewed
every skater in Tokyo. But I strongly and respectfully disagree with "couldn't be that many."
3. My problem with this is that you assume skaters are one singular monolith.
No, I do not. I am relating what the ones who I spoke to told me. If I gave the impression that I was speaking for all human skaters, I phrased it poorly. I would like to think I am not in the habit of speaking about people as monoliths.
Just because the guy you spoke to has a different experience doesn't necessarily mean that Mikio might not have been in a bad mood and shouted another group down on a different occasion. After all, teen activity didn't just happen once in the park. I myself highly doubt all the skaters in that park knew each other, there might even have been lone skaters there, as well. It's hard to say. But even if we take this scenario, that Mikio never shouted them down and asked them politely to keep it quiet or leave, that can still trigger a psychopath.
Obviously I am not saying Mikio could never have been in a bad mood. As I have said many times, we hear different things about him. Obviously I am not suggesting I am able to vouch for every single day in his life. What I am trying to relate, perhaps poorly, is the testimony of the skaters who used that park on a frequent basis in the 90s/2000. Skaters who were interviewed by the TMPD. They referred to the Mikio incident as singular. Maybe they were lying to me? But, as we know the TMPD fingerprinted them, clearly none were responsible for the murders. I would hope you would give me enough credit to assume that I am not claiming absolute certainty on events 24 years ago. I am talking about
what I have been able to ascertain. Clearly, the possibility of Mikio saying the wrong thing to the wrong person is still on the table.
If one thing I've noticed reading these cases, is that some people can be triggered really easily by things you would never expect to make someone mad. I think it's wrong to be under the assumption that this guy was a 'normal' human being who has the same thought process as you and me.
Sure. Where do I assume the killer is normal? Given that he murdered four human beings for no immediately obvious reason, I think the word "normal" can be quite comfortably discounted here.
4. I beg to differ on the clothing. When I was a teen I skated a little and it seems very appropriate for around the time when I was a kid, especially the bucket hat. Obviously the jacket would be too much, but it was winter in Tokyo. The style is definitely something a teen-twenties guy from that culture would wear. You argue about shoes, but skaters do wear tennis shoes often. it's not really out of the style - they're comfortable & easy to do flips with.
Your view on these clothes are as valid as anyone else's. You aren't the first person to view them as in-line (see what I did there) with the clothes of a skater. Though I think you are the first to take this view that has said they skated too? I can't recall. But I skated in my youth, too. Personally, from the very first time I saw those clothes, it felt wrong that a skater label was applied. JMO, of course. Then again, he's wearing tennis shoes and there's a tennis court right there. Why can't he be a tennis player? People wear tennis shoes to cycle around. Why couldn't he be a cyclist etc? In the end, this goes nowhere. I can only repeat what every single person on the scene in Soshigaya Park in the year 2000 I spoke to told me --
those aren't skater clothes. Sometimes, I asked them directly. Many times they gave me this opinion unprompted. Of course, they could be wrong. But seeing as they were there 24 years ago, I'm inclined to take their view on board.
Short of that, we're left with likelihood. Is it
likely he had just been skateboarding before the murders? Is it
likely he decided on a whim to murder the occupants of that house while on the half-pipe? Or is it more likely he would choose his clothes appropriately to hide his identity rather than adhering to 'skater style'? We know he covered his face with a handkerchief and wore a low-brimmed hat. If anything at all, this tells me he didn't want to be seen / recognised.
But isn't Mabori Beach literally a skate park or in the very least an area that can be used as such by teens?
Mabori Beach is not literally a skate park, no. It's an area of coastline in Yokosuka where there happens to be a US naval base -- coincidentally, or not. But I also don't know if there was a skate park there in the year 2000.
You also argue that the killer disappeared just because he isn't caught, but I beg to differ with you. There's nothing to suggest he disappeared or vanished into thin air.
I am not suggesting he vanished into thin air, I am suggesting there is a chance he left the country. And I do not say this simply because he wasn't caught. Not all crimes are solved in Japan. Obviously, that doesn't mean that every single criminal fled the country. I have stated by reasons for believing he left Japan so many times, you'll forgive me for not repeating myself. It's all there up-thread.
He most likely left normally in the early hours of the morning, covering his hand and just went home. Nobody would really notice or pay attention to a fellow Japanese walking home in the darkness. Just because the police couldn't track him down doesn't mean he disappeared like Jack the Ripper.
Let's not get into Jack the Ripper because I have my own views on that and I
don't believe he disappeared
We know the killer left in the early in the morning, yes. I too think he went home, covering his hand. Where else would he have realistically gone? However, the idea that a witness wouldn't pay attention to someone walking home bleeding due to them being Japanese - am I understanding that correctly? If so, I disagree. You asked if I'm aware of the Namiko Takaba case. Yes, I've actually just made a thread on it. In that case, there is no suggestion the killer isn't Japanese. Yet she was also bleeding and seen by witnesses. And I'm not wholly sure where your point about the police not tracking him down meaning he didn't disappear like JtR leads. Do you mean the TMPD overlooked him? Or he's living in plain sight? At any rate, we disagree. I don't say it's impossible he slipped past them. Only that for me it's more likely he left. End of.
By all accounts he had all the time in the world as the bodies were discovered 10 hours later. Ever heard of a similar case of Namiko Takaba? The Japanese police had absolutely everything, same as here, even the blood prints leading to the killer's house and the kid's victim blatantly saying who it was 'a woman from the local store'. The killer still hasn't been caught and has vanished into 'thin air'. Frankly I think the Japanese police is thoroughly unexperienced in dealing with such crimes because the crime rate there is so low.
I'll accept your point about the TMPD Homicide detectives having less experience
compared to US or European murder detectives -- on the numbers alone. And I too see the parallels between the Miyazaws and Namiko Takaba (as per my thread). But if we are going to get into cases where the police have lots of evidence but fail to find a murderer, then we are going to be jumping all over the Atlas.
The homicide rate in Japan is, as you say, incredible low. You are statistically more likely to die taking a selfie in Japan than you are to be murdered. And the conviction rate there is 99.99999%. Now there are problems with the judicial system in Japan as anyone with a passing knowledge will know. But you could also spin these facts as the TMPD being far, far superior, therefore, to any other police force in the world. I do not. I think this would be a gross simplification.
I have openly spoken against the TMPD
in some regards. I have also praised them in many others. My knowledge of their work is limited but, from what I have seen, I think you're characterisation is unfair. My view is that they are incredibly hard-working and, on the whole, deeply respectful. I also reject the view that any kind of comparative inexperience in the TMPD explains the lack of a result in this case. That's just my personal view. You have yours.
As for the
Nagoya Police, I have zero experience so I take no view. Nagoya Police and the TMPD are two separate forces -- I have been guilty in the past of saying or repeating the phrase "Japanese police". I mention this seeing as you don't like people so speak in monoliths
But I think you're ignoring the fact that there's plenty of Japanese people that have Korean DNA. There's a huge overlap between both populations for historical reasons and immigration reasons.
Thank you for explaining this to me. Respectfully, I am not ignoring it. But as I say, I don't know what the killer's DNA make up is. Nor do you. However, Dr. M has a fair idea seeing as he analysed it and his opinions are out there. He, too, will be aware of Japan's history. Is he wrong? I don't know, it's possible. As I say --once again-- I am going off only
what is known so far. I'm not going to repeat my points above but clearly, there is a chance the killer was foreign. There is a chance he was Japanese. Dr. M, the only person to be quoted on this subject who's actually seen the killer's DNA, says the former is more likely than the latter. I'll go with it until better information comes to light.
This is no way means he is Korean, knows anything about Korea or has ever visited Korea.
Yes. There is a chance the killer is
ethnically Korean (yes, I'm aware there is some genetic overlap). But the chance of him being from, or having ever visited, Korea is essentially zero. We know this thanks to the words of the Chief and his collaboration with the Korean authorities. This has been ruled out. This in no way infringes on my theory the killer is an American who left Japan shortly after the murders.
I also would say that you're putting too much credit in the sand information. While it is a vital piece of evidence, it can be very misleading.
Why am I
putting too much credit in it? How can it be vital but also too much credit be put in it? Frankly, I have answered this so many times. I am yet to see one single, solitary solid reason as to why this
isn't important. What other clue in this case tells us where the killer was definitively before the murders? Not only that, it tells us he was able to access a closed world. Not open to Japanese, or casual tourists, or even most American citizens. I would like to hear how exactly I have been misled by this.
In the event that more information comes to light and it turns out the sand is not from Edwards, I will change my mind accordingly. My views must change as the evidence does.
Since you're more knowledgeable than me on the subject, do we know for certain that this is from the airbase or the beach? How do you even determine that? And how do you determine the killer's bag didn't have the traces of sand already when he brought it?
I will not get into detail on this as I was told certain things off the record. But yes, we know one sand was from Edwards USAF base in California, the other was from the
region around Mabori Beach. I've spoken many times about Lorna Dawson and IDing soil / sand. If you listened to FACELESS, you'll know what I'm referring to.
The bag was manufactured in Osaka. It had no DNA or fingerprints belonging to anyone but the killer. So, (as I've said on this same page of the thread I'm pretty sure), if he bought it from someone else or stole it, he cleaned it in such a way as to remove all forensic traces of a previous owner but somehow still leave sand in the bag. Perhaps this is somehow possible. Again, on likelihood, to me, it is not. As for the idea that the bag came brand-new with sand in it from Mabori and a US military base on the other side of world : I cannot say it's impossible. I just don't see how.
As far as the killing goes, I think nothing in the crime suggests he had experience in murdering or military-like training. He came ill prepared, armed with just a bad knife (for killing people) in a very risky, incredibly narrow house. He started killing randomly and given all the evidence - he was in some danger himself.
I do not say I think he had military training or experience in killing. But how do you know he started killing randomly?
After the murder he is insanely sloppy, throws his clothes, leaves a mountain of evidence, stays at the crime scene for hours, does all kinds of weird things in no hurry. At any moment he could have been caught. You suggest he did so because he was planning to move out of Japan anyway, but so what?
"So what?" Because perhaps he was thinking he had already bled all over the crime scene and now his fingerprints are there too. What difference would all the rest of the evidence make?
I am not saying this was smart. I am saying it's possibly what his thinking was. You not thinking it's a good explanation doesn't mean it isn't the explanation.
Even if he left Japan and the police actually tracked him by DNA and fingerprints, he'd still be extradited even if he went to China itself. Nobody would harbor a criminal just because they didn't like Japan. That's not a good explanation for him being so careless.
What the TMPD would do with his DNA / fingerprints if the killer has no criminal record in -let's say- the USA? As far as I know, the TMPD has never spoken with US authorities, though the killer's fingerprints are lodged with Interpol. However, when I spoke to Interpol, I was told:
we cannot comment on a case about which we have no information. So, I leave you to decide what has happened there.
And where do I suggest that a country would harbour a murderer because they don't like Japan? Again, I am not saying that his thought process is
good or logical. His carelessness doesn't have to make sense to you or me or anyone else.
I also find the notion of some random foreign guy attacking this house in the middle of nowhere in order to taste his first kill before leaving as far-fetched.
With respect, that's neither here nor there. Very little in this case is ordinary or quotidian. If it were, the killer would already be hanged by now. I'm unsure of your best theory. I've come to my own. It's led to a person of interest who is exactly the very thing you say you find far-fetched. So, again, while you may not find it credible. I do. That's fine.
Though, I must quibble with your characterisation of the house being in the middle of nowhere. It is not.
These were not victims picked at from a night club or anything, the house is very hard to find and the killer went from a very specific angle in it.
Why is the house very hard to find?
Which is why I said I don't think he is a drifter or someone who randomly struck the house.
Yes, I was actually agreeing with you on this point.
I don't know what the Tokyo police have investigated with the skaters, but so far they haven't achieved much breakthrough in this case, so I'm a little doubtful of their work.
Again, that's your view. And there areas in which I disagree with them too. But if your argument is that because they haven't solved the case, therefore they are inexperienced and their work deserves to be doubted: I strongly disagree. This is simplistic, in my view, bordering on disrespectful. Though perhaps I've misunderstood your characterisation.
And given that this is a killing that was 20 years ago, there's zero way to actually chase the skateboarder link unless DNA is matched or the killer (or someone close to him) comes forward.
I really don't follow this. Because it happened 24 years ago, they can't chase the skater link? Why?
At any rate, we do know that they are chasing it based on everything stated above.
I understand you're leaning on the military angle, but what in the crime scene suggests that?
Your post is lengthy and, again, I appreciate your thoughts. But from here on in, anything that I've answered many, many times, I'm going to simply refer you back to my earlier answers.
With respect, they are up-thread time and again. You are free to look them up if you wish!
We have an emotional killer that struck a somewhat isolated house full of an entire family in an hour where most people are actually still awake. I find it hard to believe he had nothing to do with them.
Fair point, sure. It's been 24 years and if you accept that 280,000 TMPD personnel have gone over this case frontways and backways then perhaps you'll have an explanation for why some personal connection with the killer and the family has been overlooked? I'm yet to hear one. Of course, it's possible he knew them. I just think it's unlikely given what we know.
While it is indeed possible, he took a lot of risks in this endeavor. A random killer would be a lot more cautious with a victim he doesn't care about - the target would be a lone female in the middle of nowhere usually. But this is not the case here.
Why would a random killer be more or less cautious? Also, are random killers fine to be spoken of in monoliths? Once again, thank you for your ideas
@femto. Those are mine. I'll wrap this up here.