Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

[citizen_sleuth]

I've spent the past few days reading through all of the threads and mulling over a lot of the questions that have popped up for me, but first I wanted to write up a quick summary of the known/confirmed facts of the case before delving into my thoughts. I'll make a separate post with my opinions because I don't want to muddy the waters by combining facts with opinions. Much of the information below is derived from Faceless' posts over the years, which are a wealth of information - massive kudos to you, Nic!

I've tried to organize the information thematically as I figured it would be the most logical as this case is quite complex -- apologies if I've missed anything!

Timeline of Events
- The family received a phone call around 9 or 10 p.m. on the night of the murders (source)

- Mikio opened a password-protected work email at 10:38 p.m. (source)

- TMPD believe Rei was killed first (source) as there were no bloodstains on him (source). Rei was also the only victim who was strangled. (source)

- An Irie and her family claim that they only heard a single banging noise/thud at 11 p.m. (also said to have been between 11-11:30 p.m. elsewhere in the thread by Faceless - source) on the night of the murders (source). Faceless says that it may have been the 13-year-old son who reported hearing the 'banging sound' to the police (source)

- The killer used the computer for 5 minutes -- from 1:18 a.m. to 1:23 a.m. (source). Mikio's email was password-protected, but the computer itself was not. The only thing the killer is known to have done on the computer is create a folder (source)

- According to the Chief, the computer activation at 10:00 a.m. was due to Haruko brushing up against the mouse when she entered the house (source)

- Haruko, Yasuko's mother, discovers the bodies at 10 a.m. the following morning and police are called at 10:50 a.m. (source)

Information About the Scene
- The killer's sweatshirt, hat, scarf, handkerchiefs, and hip bag were left in the front room of the house (source)

- The killer's gloves and his (broken) sashimi knife were left in the kitchen sink (source)

- The killer's jacket was left over Yasuko's body in the hall (source)

- The phone line was not cut, according to the Chief (source)

- There were broken twigs and footprints in the mud near the rear wall of the house (source)

- Documents, items from Yasuko's purse, Mikio's wallet, and house keys were thrown in the toilet and defecated on (source)

- More documents along with a bloody towel were found in the bathtub (source)

- The killer ate 4 cups of ice cream without a spoon and drank barley tea (source)

- The window screen in the bathroom was removed and the bathroom window was likely found open (source)

Known Information About the Perpetrator
- The killer has Type A blood (source)

- TMPD believe the killer was around 5'6" to 5'7" (source)

- The killer ate string beans and sesame seeds before the murder (source)

- DNA tests revealed the killer is possibly of mixed race (source)

- TMPD believe the killer had a slim build with a 70-75 cm waist (source)

- TMPD believe the killer was likely right-handed (source)

- TMPD believe the killer was between 15 and 24 years old at the time of the murders and was "living a student lifestyle" (source)

Perpetrator's Clothes (Arriving)
- Black "Air Tech" "UNIQLO" jacket, size large (source)

- Light gray "Marufuru Corporation (M/X)" sweatshirt with light purple sleeves, size large. These sweatshirts were sold between August 2000 and December 2000 and a total of 130 pieces were sold at 41 stores in 14 different prefectures. The price ranged between 1,480 yen to 1,900 yen. (source)

- Black "EDWIN" gloves, measuring 26 cm in size. Between 1998 and 2000, 10,755 pairs of gloves were manufactured and were sold for around 1,980 yen. The primary retailers of these gloves were JEANS MATE and Marufuru (M/X). (source)

- "Slazenger" athletic shoes (source) size 27 cm or 27.5 -- detectives were split about the size. Size 27.5 was not available for sale in Japan while size 27 was. (source)

- Gray knitted wool bucket hat with black trim. 3,465 hats of this kind were sold in Japan between July 1998 and November 2000 and were sold for around 1,900 yen. TMPD believe that based on the tag, the killer's hat was purchased after September 21, 1999. The hat was sold by Marufuru Corporation (M/X), Unique Co., Ltd., and Daisan Black Co., Ltd. in the Kanto region. (source)

- Plaid scarf of unknown manufacture as there was no tag (source)

- 2 solid black "MUJI" handkerchiefs. Between 1995 and 2000, a total of 66,500 of these black handkerchiefs were manufactured and sold for 300 yen a piece. 59,000 of these were manufactured between 1998 and 2000. (source)

- Hip bag with a belt/strap length of 83 cm. 2,850 of these bags were made by a manufacturer in Osaka and the bags were were sold for 2,900 yen at discount stores in the Kanto region from September 1995 through January 1999. One handkerchief had an approximately 3-cm cut in the center, which police believe indicates the killer used the handkerchief to wrap around the knife handle. The other handkerchief was folded into a triangle, and police say it is possible the killer used it as a mask. (source)

- "Seki Magoroku, Ginju" sashimi knife, manufactured in Fukui Prefecture in June 2000. A total of 1,500 of these knives were manufactured and they were sold for around 3,500 yen each in 46 stores in Kanto region. (source)

- Traces of "DRAKKAR NOIR" perfume, manufactured in France by Guy Laroche, were found on the handkerchiefs and the hip bag. DRAKKAR NOIR has been sold in Japan since 1982 and a 30ml bottle retailed for 3,000 yen in Japan. (source)

Items Stolen From the House
- Mikio's sweatshirt, which said "DIVE" on the front and had the English alphabet on the back (source)

- Money, although the killer left behind more money than he took (source)

TMPD Investigation
- TMPD ran the killer's prints through South Korea's national database which contains the fingerprints of all adults in the country and found no matches (source)

- Immediately after the murders, TMPD checked all border entry/exit points for individuals matching the killer's profile (source)

- An Irie and her family were ruled out as suspects by TMPD (source)

- The killer's fingerprints are in the Interpol database, according to the Chief (source)

- According to the Chief, only the killer's DNA was found on the hip bag (source)

- TMPD found no traces of drugs or alcohol in the killer's blood (source)

- TMPD conducted detailed sound experiments in the house (source)

- The police have not conclusively determined how the killer entered the house (source)

- Former TMPD Chief told Faceless that the killer's gloves (Faceless emphasizes that it was gloves - plural) were in bad shape (source)

- TMPD has officially said nothing about the sand found in the killer's bag and the Chief dodged Faceless' questions about the sand (source)

- The 'Kuromatsu' poster on 2chan who was active before and after the murders has been 'eliminated' as a suspect, according to the Chief (source)

- In 2021, police revealed that the man seen purchasing the sashimi knife on CCTV near JR Kichijoji Station the day before the murders was ruled out as a suspect (source)

 

[BatataPoha]

Hello everyone. Thank you @Cryptic and @cenazoic for your replies. Thanks for your insights.

I will address both your posts together. From the start, I have kept a rather open mind about the origins of the killer-on whether he is Japanese or a foreigner.

I think one thing we can be certain of, is that this is not a Japanese guy in the vicinity of the Miyazawas social circle. Unless the TMPD have overlooked someone major and obvious, which I don’t think is the case.

Next is whether he is a random foreigner or a random Japanese criminal. And here is where it gets murky. Admittedly a lot of things that people here have attributed to this military brat can also be applied on this random Japanese person.

The only points that point in favour of a foreigner over a Japanese in my view is the hip bag. We know the killer has used the hip bag for stuff. It has various things in it which can only come from some sort of regular use. Would a random Japanese guy be brave enough to leave something like that behind, which could potentially lead to someone identifying him? He didn’t need to leave the hip bag behind as far as I am aware, and yet it was left behind with impunity.

The 2nd point is the killer used the mum’s sanitary pad to patch himself up, which is not only smart from a sterility pov, but is also incredibly ingenious in my view for a young 18-22 yr old. @Faceless has confirmed that this is a survival guide that is taught to military people.

The 3rd point, albeit very weak is the Jizo statue. There is no direct link between the murders and that statue, but if lets suppose they are linked, then it would make no sense for a random Japanese guy to come back to that place and leave the statue behind.

Now it would also not make sense for a young foreign brat, but perhaps if his parents are feeling guilty and have immerse themselves into the Japanese culture quite a bit ( as @Cryptic has mentioned for people in senior positions), then it could be one feasible explanation in my view.

 

[BatataPoha]

I've spent the past few days reading through all of the threads and mulling over a lot of the questions that have popped up for me, but first I wanted to write up a quick summary of the known/confirmed facts of the case before delving into my thoughts. I'll make a separate post with my opinions because I don't want to muddy the waters by combining facts with opinions. Much of the information below is derived from Faceless' posts over the years, which are a wealth of information - massive kudos to you, Nic!

I've tried to organize the information thematically as I figured it would be the most logical as this case is quite complex -- apologies if I've missed anything!

Timeline of Events
- The family received a phone call around 9 or 10 p.m. on the night of the murders (source)

- Mikio opened a password-protected work email at 10:38 p.m. (source)

- TMPD believe Rei was killed first (source) as there were no bloodstains on him (source). Rei was also the only victim who was strangled. (source)

- An Irie and her family claim that they only heard a single banging noise/thud at 11 p.m. (also said to have been between 11-11:30 p.m. elsewhere in the thread by Faceless - source) on the night of the murders (source). Faceless says that it may have been the 13-year-old son who reported hearing the 'banging sound' to the police (source)

- The killer used the computer for 5 minutes -- from 1:18 a.m. to 1:23 a.m. (source). Mikio's email was password-protected, but the computer itself was not. The only thing the killer is known to have done on the computer is create a folder (source)

- According to the Chief, the computer activation at 10:00 a.m. was due to Haruko brushing up against the mouse when she entered the house (source)

- Haruko, Yasuko's mother, discovers the bodies at 10 a.m. the following morning and police are called at 10:50 a.m. (source)

Information About the Scene
- The killer's sweatshirt, hat, scarf, handkerchiefs, and hip bag were left in the front room of the house (source)

- The killer's gloves and his (broken) sashimi knife were left in the kitchen sink (source)

- The killer's jacket was left over Yasuko's body in the hall (source)

- The phone line was not cut, according to the Chief (source)

- There were broken twigs and footprints in the mud near the rear wall of the house (source)

- Documents, items from Yasuko's purse, Mikio's wallet, and house keys were thrown in the toilet and defecated on (source)

- More documents along with a bloody towel were found in the bathtub (source)

- The killer ate 4 cups of ice cream without a spoon and drank barley tea (source)

- The window screen in the bathroom was removed and the bathroom window was likely found open (source)

Known Information About the Perpetrator
- The killer has Type A blood (source)

- TMPD believe the killer was around 5'6" to 5'7" (source)

- The killer ate string beans and sesame seeds before the murder (source)

- DNA tests revealed the killer is possibly of mixed race (source)

- TMPD believe the killer had a slim build with a 70-75 cm waist (source)

- TMPD believe the killer was likely right-handed (source)

- TMPD believe the killer was between 15 and 24 years old at the time of the murders and was "living a student lifestyle" (source)

Perpetrator's Clothes (Arriving)
- Black "Air Tech" "UNIQLO" jacket, size large (source)

- Light gray "Marufuru Corporation (M/X)" sweatshirt with light purple sleeves, size large. These sweatshirts were sold between August 2000 and December 2000 and a total of 130 pieces were sold at 41 stores in 14 different prefectures. The price ranged between 1,480 yen to 1,900 yen. (source)

- Black "EDWIN" gloves, measuring 26 cm in size. Between 1998 and 2000, 10,755 pairs of gloves were manufactured and were sold for around 1,980 yen. The primary retailers of these gloves were JEANS MATE and Marufuru (M/X). (source)

- "Slazenger" athletic shoes (source) size 27 cm or 27.5 -- detectives were split about the size. Size 27.5 was not available for sale in Japan while size 27 was. (source)

- Gray knitted wool bucket hat with black trim. 3,465 hats of this kind were sold in Japan between July 1998 and November 2000 and were sold for around 1,900 yen. TMPD believe that based on the tag, the killer's hat was purchased after September 21, 1999. The hat was sold by Marufuru Corporation (M/X), Unique Co., Ltd., and Daisan Black Co., Ltd. in the Kanto region. (source)

- Plaid scarf of unknown manufacture as there was no tag (source)

- 2 solid black "MUJI" handkerchiefs. Between 1995 and 2000, a total of 66,500 of these black handkerchiefs were manufactured and sold for 300 yen a piece. 59,000 of these were manufactured between 1998 and 2000. (source)

- Hip bag with a belt/strap length of 83 cm. 2,850 of these bags were made by a manufacturer in Osaka and the bags were were sold for 2,900 yen at discount stores in the Kanto region from September 1995 through January 1999. One handkerchief had an approximately 3-cm cut in the center, which police believe indicates the killer used the handkerchief to wrap around the knife handle. The other handkerchief was folded into a triangle, and police say it is possible the killer used it as a mask. (source)

- "Seki Magoroku, Ginju" sashimi knife, manufactured in Fukui Prefecture in June 2000. A total of 1,500 of these knives were manufactured and they were sold for around 3,500 yen each in 46 stores in Kanto region. (source)

- Traces of "DRAKKAR NOIR" perfume, manufactured in France by Guy Laroche, were found on the handkerchiefs and the hip bag. DRAKKAR NOIR has been sold in Japan since 1982 and a 30ml bottle retailed for 3,000 yen in Japan. (source)

Items Stolen From the House
- Mikio's sweatshirt, which said "DIVE" on the front and had the English alphabet on the back (source)

- Money, although the killer left behind more money than he took (source)

TMPD Investigation
- TMPD ran the killer's prints through South Korea's national database which contains the fingerprints of all adults in the country and found no matches (source)

- Immediately after the murders, TMPD checked all border entry/exit points for individuals matching the killer's profile (source)

- An Irie and her family were ruled out as suspects by TMPD (source)

- The killer's fingerprints are in the Interpol database, according to the Chief (source)

- According to the Chief, only the killer's DNA was found on the hip bag (source)

- TMPD found no traces of drugs or alcohol in the killer's blood (source)

- TMPD conducted detailed sound experiments in the house (source)

- The police have not conclusively determined how the killer entered the house (source)

- Former TMPD Chief told Faceless that the killer's gloves (Faceless emphasizes that it was gloves - plural) were in bad shape (source)

- TMPD has officially said nothing about the sand found in the killer's bag and the Chief dodged Faceless' questions about the sand (source)

- The 'Kuromatsu' poster on 2chan who was active before and after the murders has been 'eliminated' as a suspect, according to the Chief (source)

- In 2021, police revealed that the man seen purchasing the sashimi knife on CCTV near JR Kichijoji Station the day before the murders was ruled out as a suspect (source)

Pretty succint post but I would add that

a) The killer’s DNA doesn’t indicate he is mixed race, atleast according to our modern conventional sensibilities. He could be one, but that is not being indicated by the info revealed by the DNA analysis.

b) Killer used sanitary pads to patch himself up. (Confirmed by Faceless here)

 

[Charlot123]

Some additional information: links easily found through Japanese Wikipedia

Blood type A (not of anyone in the house) is found on Rei's futon. Maybe the perpetrator still returned into Rei's room, or maybe the sequence of murders was different after all

長男の布団に犯人の血液…世田谷一家殺害１５年

東京都世田谷区で２０００年１２月３０日深夜、会社員宮沢みきおさん（当時４４歳）一家４人が殺害された事件で、長男の礼君（同６歳）の布団に犯人の血液が付着していたことが捜査関係者への取材でわかった。

web.archive.org

(If you read it in Google Chrome, nowadays hitting translate should be enough)

 

[Charlot123]

I've spent the past few days reading through all of the threads and mulling over a lot of the questions that have popped up for me, but first I wanted to write up a quick summary of the known/confirmed facts of the case before delving into my thoughts. I'll make a separate post with my opinions because I don't want to muddy the waters by combining facts with opinions. Much of the information below is derived from Faceless' posts over the years, which are a wealth of information - massive kudos to you, Nic!

I've tried to organize the information thematically as I figured it would be the most logical as this case is quite complex -- apologies if I've missed anything!

Timeline of Events
- The family received a phone call around 9 or 10 p.m. on the night of the murders (source)

- Mikio opened a password-protected work email at 10:38 p.m. (source)

- TMPD believe Rei was killed first (source) as there were no bloodstains on him (source). Rei was also the only victim who was strangled. (source)

- An Irie and her family claim that they only heard a single banging noise/thud at 11 p.m. (also said to have been between 11-11:30 p.m. elsewhere in the thread by Faceless - source) on the night of the murders (source). Faceless says that it may have been the 13-year-old son who reported hearing the 'banging sound' to the police (source)

- The killer used the computer for 5 minutes -- from 1:18 a.m. to 1:23 a.m. (source). Mikio's email was password-protected, but the computer itself was not. The only thing the killer is known to have done on the computer is create a folder (source)

- According to the Chief, the computer activation at 10:00 a.m. was due to Haruko brushing up against the mouse when she entered the house (source)

- Haruko, Yasuko's mother, discovers the bodies at 10 a.m. the following morning and police are called at 10:50 a.m. (source)

Information About the Scene
- The killer's sweatshirt, hat, scarf, handkerchiefs, and hip bag were left in the front room of the house (source)

- The killer's gloves and his (broken) sashimi knife were left in the kitchen sink (source)

- The killer's jacket was left over Yasuko's body in the hall (source)

- The phone line was not cut, according to the Chief (source)

- There were broken twigs and footprints in the mud near the rear wall of the house (source)

- Documents, items from Yasuko's purse, Mikio's wallet, and house keys were thrown in the toilet and defecated on (source)

- More documents along with a bloody towel were found in the bathtub (source)

- The killer ate 4 cups of ice cream without a spoon and drank barley tea (source)

- The window screen in the bathroom was removed and the bathroom window was likely found open (source)

Known Information About the Perpetrator
- The killer has Type A blood (source)

- TMPD believe the killer was around 5'6" to 5'7" (source)

- The killer ate string beans and sesame seeds before the murder (source)

- DNA tests revealed the killer is possibly of mixed race (source)

- TMPD believe the killer had a slim build with a 70-75 cm waist (source)

- TMPD believe the killer was likely right-handed (source)

- TMPD believe the killer was between 15 and 24 years old at the time of the murders and was "living a student lifestyle" (source)

Perpetrator's Clothes (Arriving)
- Black "Air Tech" "UNIQLO" jacket, size large (source)

- Light gray "Marufuru Corporation (M/X)" sweatshirt with light purple sleeves, size large. These sweatshirts were sold between August 2000 and December 2000 and a total of 130 pieces were sold at 41 stores in 14 different prefectures. The price ranged between 1,480 yen to 1,900 yen. (source)

- Black "EDWIN" gloves, measuring 26 cm in size. Between 1998 and 2000, 10,755 pairs of gloves were manufactured and were sold for around 1,980 yen. The primary retailers of these gloves were JEANS MATE and Marufuru (M/X). (source)

- "Slazenger" athletic shoes (source) size 27 cm or 27.5 -- detectives were split about the size. Size 27.5 was not available for sale in Japan while size 27 was. (source)

- Gray knitted wool bucket hat with black trim. 3,465 hats of this kind were sold in Japan between July 1998 and November 2000 and were sold for around 1,900 yen. TMPD believe that based on the tag, the killer's hat was purchased after September 21, 1999. The hat was sold by Marufuru Corporation (M/X), Unique Co., Ltd., and Daisan Black Co., Ltd. in the Kanto region. (source)

- Plaid scarf of unknown manufacture as there was no tag (source)

- 2 solid black "MUJI" handkerchiefs. Between 1995 and 2000, a total of 66,500 of these black handkerchiefs were manufactured and sold for 300 yen a piece. 59,000 of these were manufactured between 1998 and 2000. (source)

- Hip bag with a belt/strap length of 83 cm. 2,850 of these bags were made by a manufacturer in Osaka and the bags were were sold for 2,900 yen at discount stores in the Kanto region from September 1995 through January 1999. One handkerchief had an approximately 3-cm cut in the center, which police believe indicates the killer used the handkerchief to wrap around the knife handle. The other handkerchief was folded into a triangle, and police say it is possible the killer used it as a mask. (source)

- "Seki Magoroku, Ginju" sashimi knife, manufactured in Fukui Prefecture in June 2000. A total of 1,500 of these knives were manufactured and they were sold for around 3,500 yen each in 46 stores in Kanto region. (source)

- Traces of "DRAKKAR NOIR" perfume, manufactured in France by Guy Laroche, were found on the handkerchiefs and the hip bag. DRAKKAR NOIR has been sold in Japan since 1982 and a 30ml bottle retailed for 3,000 yen in Japan. (source)

Items Stolen From the House
- Mikio's sweatshirt, which said "DIVE" on the front and had the English alphabet on the back (source)

- Money, although the killer left behind more money than he took (source)

TMPD Investigation
- TMPD ran the killer's prints through South Korea's national database which contains the fingerprints of all adults in the country and found no matches (source)

- Immediately after the murders, TMPD checked all border entry/exit points for individuals matching the killer's profile (source)

- An Irie and her family were ruled out as suspects by TMPD (source)

- The killer's fingerprints are in the Interpol database, according to the Chief (source)

- According to the Chief, only the killer's DNA was found on the hip bag (source)

- TMPD found no traces of drugs or alcohol in the killer's blood (source)

- TMPD conducted detailed sound experiments in the house (source)

- The police have not conclusively determined how the killer entered the house (source)

- Former TMPD Chief told Faceless that the killer's gloves (Faceless emphasizes that it was gloves - plural) were in bad shape (source)

- TMPD has officially said nothing about the sand found in the killer's bag and the Chief dodged Faceless' questions about the sand (source)

- The 'Kuromatsu' poster on 2chan who was active before and after the murders has been 'eliminated' as a suspect, according to the Chief (source)

- In 2021, police revealed that the man seen purchasing the sashimi knife on CCTV near JR Kichijoji Station the day before the murders was ruled out as a suspect (source)

Thank you very much, great job and time that went into it.

To add: I pay attention to details that are mentioned by the police, even if they are never proven/disproven

This is from Chinese Wiki. The Japanese police made several Wikis, in different languages, about the case. They differ. (I haven't ran all archived articles through way back machine, either.)

"Sounds from the crime scene​

edit
Neighbors once testified that they heard a sound coming from the intercom at the victim's house around 8:30 pm on the day of the incident. However, the police did not investigate further as the family members who lived with the man said they did not hear it.

People walking in a nearby park testified that they heard sounds like a couple quarreling from the victim's house around 10 p.m. that day (but no sound of damage to objects was heard). Since the criminal might have been present at the scene during the quarrel, the time of the crime might have been earlier than the 11-12 p.m. estimated by the police [Note 19] .

Neighbors also said that they heard a loud "thump" from the victim's house at around 11:30 p.m. There are reports [Note 20] that experiments were conducted on this testimony and found that the sound may be related to the sound of the victim falling down the stairs when the murder occurred. Although the relationship between the above-mentioned voice testimonies cannot be denied, the police did not conduct an in-depth investigation because the family later overturned the above-mentioned testimonies."

Now, to me, the sound coming via the intercom, the DNA of the murderer on the slippers and some other aspects (traces midway through the stairs) indicate that he could have initially entered via the front door.

世田谷一家殺害事件 - 維基百科，自由的百科全書

zh.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Charlot123]

Another story found in Chinese sites about a crime committed by a Chinese citizen in Japan in 2012. Very interesting information...

Which makes me question the whole issue of DNA laws in Japan and wonder if there can be loopholes.

愛知縣蟹江町母子3人殺傷事件 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

zh.wikipedia.org

Now, this story is more straightforward. A murderer invaded a house/shop, killed two and maimed one, motive was robbery, he left. DNA was collected.

Soon afterwards, a Chinese immigrant was caught in the same Prefecture during car robbery, his DNA was taken in the police and matched the DNA of the killer. He was caught.

What I see: in 2012, in Japan, the system like Codis was in place? If they could compare DNA from the CS with the DNA of the arrestee. Basically, "criminals to criminals" can be compared?

So what it tells me is that Japanese privacy laws as of today may limit only genetic genealogy work like we do in the US, right? Basically, criminals can not be yet compared with good citizens? But criminals can be compared to criminal databases, or so it seems.

It is 2024. What the TMPD can do is: run the Setagaya murderer DNA against their own databases similar to CODIS. In Japan, Korea and China. In Europe. With the Interpol, too. I know there probably will be no matches, but...they can find the family lines.

Nowadays, mitogroup H15 doesn't tell us much, because there are private mutations, but extracting full mito (FMS) and seeing if it matches full mito in one of the criminal databases can be used for genealogy.

Same for O-M122 Y-haplogroup. By itself, the group is too large, but, it has tons of subclades. Why not ask Yfull to do modern typing of the Setagaya murderer's Y? Or do something like FTDNA and Y full? He is a criminal, he can be studied...and see if the Setagaya murderer's Y could match someone in the criminal databases only, but according to markers tested in 2024? Just pull out some matches by 37 markers, and work from there? Costs nothing today. Maybe they can find a family name? Y is often linked to a paternal name. I bet if they do such a job, they'll be able to say more precisely if the person was of Japanese, Korean or Chinese subclade - as they have diverged.

So my idea: from that article in 2012, I understand that Japanese genetic privacy laws exclude criminal databases. They just didn't find any matches between Setagaya murderer and known criminals. But, if they use criminal databases worldwide alone, but in a modern way, with big Y testing, etc, they can find: matching familial subclades, maybe family name, and maybe a distant autosomal relative. They don't need gedmatch or any other database that "law-abiding citizens" use. Asia is huge. They just need to do a more in-depth comparison with existing criminal databases, which as we see, is not subject to Japanese privacy laws.

 

[Cryptic]

They commented on the murderer Y-haplotype being encountered in 1/5 Koreans, and 1/13 Japanese, and assuming he was more likely, Korean.

I think the analysis they used is incomplete for the following reasons:

Start with: 1/ 5 Koreans -verse- 1/13 Japanese having the characteristic

But, then apply the statistics above to the population of their respective countries:

- 50 million South Koreans (North Koreans dont get out alot- to say the least) - verse- 125 million Japanese

- Now, 10 million (1/5) South Koreans have that DNA material. But... so do about 10 million (1/13) of Japanese.

In short, there are roughly the same number of Japanese with that DNA characteristic as there are Koreans simply because there are more than 2X as many Japanese as South Koreans.

 

[BatataPoha]

I think the analysis they used is incomplete for the following reasons:

Start with: 1/ 5 Koreans -verse- 1/13 Japanese having the characteristic

But, then apply the statistics above to the population of their respective countries:

- 50 million South Koreans (North Koreans dont get out alot- to say the least) - verse- 125 million Japanese

- Now, 10 million (1/5) South Koreans have that DNA material. But... so do about 10 million (1/13) of Japanese.

In short, there are roughly the same number of Japanese with that DNA characteristic as there are Koreans simply because there are more than 2X as many Japanese as South Koreans.

The stats are I think even worse coz the adult South Korean population has been eliminated on the basis of the fingerprint analysis.

So its basically Japanese in Japan vs people of Korean or Chinese or any other ethnic group in Japan at that time which has-that haplotype. Needless to say, the numbers would probably side with it being someone from Japan.

 

[FlowersInBloom]

@Cryptic my question was more of a broader one and not targeting any one particular post, but thank you for bringing yours to my attention as I hadn’t actually read those. I agree his diet isn’t an indication of who he is and isn’t and it doesn’t rule anything out just because of what he ate.

This is from Chinese Wiki. The Japanese police made several Wikis, in different languages, about the case. They differ.

Just FYI as a former Wiki editor myself, articles are written by volunteers and there isn’t any one author of them… there are many who collaborate using sources they compile themselves.

Police don’t write Wikipedia articles and Japanese police didn’t create the articles on this case in several languages. You can actually see who did write them by checking the history tabs…
This is the reason you will see so much conflicting information between articles in different languages on the same subject. Sources are usually mostly in the same language and from the same country the article is in. The result is you get huge amounts of misinformation, not to mention the failures of machine translation between languages confusing the reader with inaccurate meanings…

 

[FlowersInBloom]

The stats are I think even worse coz the adult South Korean population has been eliminated on the basis of the fingerprint analysis.

So its basically Japanese in Japan vs people of Korean or Chinese or any other ethnic group in Japan at that time which has-that haplotype. Needless to say, the numbers would probably side with it being someone from Japan.

The theory I’m talking about here is a Korean-American on a base in Japan though, not a Korean national living in Japan or one born in South Korea. Specifically an American man.

 

[FlowersInBloom]

@citizen_sleuth thank you so much for compiling a post of links and sources for the information! Incredibly useful to look back to and read on.
I think only one thing I remember different here… the jacket that covered Yasuko I think was actually a sheet covering her head and part of her body due to the brutality of her injuries being photographed for the distribution amongst police.
I cannot find the post where Faceless says that sorry… but I’m certain he did say so and it wasn’t a jacket in the end…

 

[Charlot123]

Just FYI as a former Wiki editor myself, articles are written by volunteers and there isn’t any one author of them… there are many who collaborate using sources they compile themselves.

Police don’t write Wikipedia articles and Japanese police didn’t create the articles on this case in several languages. You can actually see who did write them by checking the history tabs…
This is the reason you will see so much conflicting information between articles in different languages on the same subject. Sources are usually mostly in the same language and from the same country the article is in. The result is you get huge amounts of misinformation, not to mention the failures of machine translation between languages confusing the reader with inaccurate meanings…

RSBM - I had to emphasize it for a different reason. Indeed, TMPD made several articles and translated their information about the Setagaya murders into Mandarin (they said, “in Chinese” I assume, Mandarin), Korean and some other languages. TMPD, indeed, did a lot to spread the information worldwide. Maybe I should have said “site” instead of Wiki, but I was amazed at the work they have done.

About the information. Usually it is not conflicting. In fact, the first version of Japanese Wikipedia related to Setagaya murders contained a wonderful part at the end. It was additional information about the yearly progress of the investigation. Now I can’t find it. Thank you for directing me to the tabs, I perfectly well remember what I saw in original Japanese Wikipedia and what I can’t find there now.

In fact, the information i use is the same, and known. After all, the whole world has discussed the case. However, each time one mentions some well-known fact here, such as the murderer’s DNA on the slippers, people ask for sources. So I usually keep the links.

 

[FlowersInBloom]

@Charlot123 ah, yes! In that case of course the articles on Wiki will all contain the information released by police worldwide. A basic grasp of the case will certainly all be the same if not very similar…
But what I meant here is that isn’t the only information being used… you can reference and source newspapers, news sites, blog posts, books, think-pieces, podcasts, almost anything, and the volunteer writing the article can state that as valid information. I can tell you for sure there will be discrepancies between the English, Japanese, Chinese and other language Wiki articles on this case as it remains unsolved.

My time with Wikipedia wasn’t as exciting as an author unfortunately as I just edited mistakes… if I were still on board I’d fix the mistake on the English article as the police chief is both listed as Tsuchida and Tsuchita… someone there isn’t doing their job!

 

[Charlot123]

I think the analysis they used is incomplete for the following reasons:

Start with: 1/ 5 Koreans -verse- 1/13 Japanese having the characteristic

But, then apply the statistics above to the population of their respective countries:

- 50 million South Koreans (North Koreans dont get out alot- to say the least) - verse- 125 million Japanese

- Now, 10 million (1/5) South Koreans have that DNA material. But... so do about 10 million (1/13) of Japanese.

In short, there are roughly the same number of Japanese with that DNA characteristic as there are Koreans simply because there are more than 2X as many Japanese as South Koreans.

To make it more complicated, there are subclades, paragroups etc etc.

Here is a page about O-M122 from FTDNA, By tapping upper L corner one can see more information. Basically, there would be “downstream” mutations more typical for Vietnam, China, Korea, etc., but in 2001 this information was unavailable.

Welcome to FamilyTreeDNA Discover

Discover more about your paternal ancestry and join in on the research!

discover.familytreedna.com

 

[Hausos]

Hello! My first post here so I apologize if I post anything obtuse/unacceptable. I've been really interested in this case and have been following it for quite a while. Reading all the threads on this site gave me a lot of information. I really appreciate everyone's amazing commentary, information, and hard work!

I understand it's already been pointed out, however I will say as someone interested in archaeogenetics... haplogroups are not an accurate way to identify someone's genetic identity at all. It simply indicates a certain ancestor in your genetic line existed once upon a time and passed down that haplogroup to you. I'm of Asian descent, all my relatives are Asian, my genetic line is essentially Asian for hundreds and hundreds of years (which can be proven) yet my haplogroups are both considered 'European', e.g. more commonly found in European people.

With that being said, I will say that the killer's paternal haplogroup, O-M122, is decidedly East Asian in origin. It's most commonly found in the Chinese... which is odd, considering the research given to us by those associated with the case said it was most commonly found amongst Koreans. I just want to mention that the modern Japanese genetic cluster is said to be the most similar with the Korean one; in a haplotype-based study, the Japanese cluster was found to share 87–94% of its genetic components with the Korean cluster, compared with a Han Chinese result of only 0–8%. A lot of Japanese who have performed genetic tests from major companies get confused when their DNA comes back with a large proportion of Korean.

I'm not really too fussed about the maternal haplogroup (H15) of the killer... it just means that somewhere in his genetic line there is a woman that introduced this haplogroup into his maternal line. I did some research as well and whilst it's true that this maternal haplogroup is commonly found amongst populations in European countries, Central Asia, and some Middle Eastern countries, some individuals from China have also reported carrying this haplogroup. Again, we also don't know the specific subclade of the killer.

I do think obtaining DNA samples and running them through a genetic testing software would be extremely helpful. I know this cannot be done... as of right now. It may not give us the exact identity of the killer but it would be beneficial in understanding who his relatives/ancestors are. For example, relatives possessing Japanese surnames vs. foreign surnames.

I cannot really speculate if the killer is mixed race or not, as many people believe, but I won't say it's impossible. What I can say is that the killer has an East Asian father and he also likely has a very East Asian appearance. I actually looked into the Yokota yearbook archives that were posted a few pages back and tried to find possible clues. Some people on here have said they found things that were very interesting. I frankly couldn't. I was looking for a male with an East Asian surname (Chinese, Korean, Japanese, etc), with a very East Asian appearance. Whilst some fit the mark, their hobbies/interests threw me off. I am definitely curious about the POI everyone is alluding to, but I understand the hush-hush nature and not wanting to throw anyone under the bus, so to speak.

Anyway, here's to hoping we only get more helpful clues, hints, leads, and most importantly a concrete answer eventually. ☺

 

[Sor Juana]

I'm not really too fussed about the maternal haplogroup (H15) of the killer... it just means that somewhere in his genetic line there is a woman that introduced this haplogroup into his maternal line. I did some research as well and whilst it's true that this maternal haplogroup is commonly found amongst populations in European countries, Central Asia, and some Middle Eastern countries, some individuals from China have also reported carrying this haplogroup. Again, we also don't know the specific subclade of the killer.

RSBM

Hi Hausos,

Great overview! Regarding H15, there have been numerous instances throughout history where people from different countries married or had children together, resulting in ethnically mixed descendants. Colonies are a notable example of this phenomenon on a large scale.

In South Asia, one notable case is Macau, which was under Portuguese administration for over 400 years. This long period of Portuguese rule led to the creation of an informal ethnic group known as Macau Chinese, who have mixed Chinese-Portuguese ancestry. While Macau Chinese may now appear similar to Cantonese people, DNA tests would reveal Portuguese genetic influences.

Given this historical context, it wouldn't surprise me if the killer turned out to be of this ethnic background—perhaps an immigrant or student from the Macau area in China.

 

[AlatzuMeizzaja]

Just as an example of haplogroups not necessarily matching ancestry: my autosomal DNA is ~90-93% Pakistani, yet my paternal haplogroup is linked to Persian Jewish populations as well as possibly Mediterranean Jews, and although it is known to exist in some Pakistanis, it has also been found in individuals in Armenia, Greece, and southern Germany, none of which have any close connection to me. JMO.