ACTIVE SEARCH JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[ZaZara]

I cannot read the courant.com article directly due to geographical restrictions, but fortunately someone posted it on archive.is:

https://archive.is/QyKmO

<modsnip - Rules - Copyright Rules - paywalled articles can't be quoted>

IMO the trail that 'wasn't really well marked' is not the Kohechi trail, but the trail that Pattie was not supposed to be on.

 

[Charlot123]

Oh my, 700 miles is a lot and if she was half-way through them she'd already covered 350 miles of it!

I wonder if the guesthouse she was staying at the night before had any single male guests who may have taken a nefarious shine to her, and followed her along the trail?

Until we know more, in this case, an attack by a human, by an animal or a physical condition that made her deviate off the track hold equal value.

Each track has own physical challenges. In the end there is a breakdown of conditions that happen in Grand Canyon.

The 10 Most Common Hiking Injuries and Illnesses and How to Treat Them

Save your trip or even your life with these treatments for 10 common hiking injuries and illnesses that can strike on the trail.

www.backpacker.com

 

[ZaZara]

Good article, @Unalienable Rights .



Pattie’s husband said that (his opinion) the Kohechi wasn’t well marked until after Pattie went missing. Yet it’s hard for him to imagine Pattie making this mistake.

This ‘incorrect’ trail near where her things were found was actually searched before. It was a treacherous one. They had calculated at that time that if she fell, she would fall on the left.

The backpack was located on the right.

RSBM & BBM

IMO the trail that wasn't really well marked is not the Kohechi trail, but Kirk is referring to the other trail, the one that Pattie wasn't supposed to be on.

So instead of taking the well-marked Kohechi trail, Pattie (an experienced hiker) allegedly chose the badly marked other trail. I can imagine that Kirk is confused about this. And rightfully says that they don't know if indeed she got on that trail. (I would like to add that even if she chose the wrong trail, she would have noticed her mistake soon, because if you are walking north to south, the sun is on your right hand side in the morning.)

I hope the family manages to organize another search party soon. To search the right side of that trail, and also the other side of the stream where the items were found.

 

[Charlot123]

RSBM & BBM

IMO the trail that wasn't really well marked is not the Kohechi trail, but Kirk is referring to the other trail, the one that Pattie wasn't supposed to be on.

So instead of taking the well-marked Kohechi trail, Pattie (an experienced hiker) allegedly chose the badly marked other trail. I can imagine that Kirk is confused about this. And rightfully says that they don't know if indeed she got on that trail. (I would like to add that even if she chose the wrong trail, she would have noticed her mistake soon, because if you are walking north to south, the sun is on your right hand side in the morning.)

I hope the family manages to organize another search party soon. To search the right side of that trail, and also the other side of the stream where the items were found.

That’s the thing. I have been reading a lot about spatial disorientation during flights, but I never looked into hiking disorientation. Certain well-traveled forums are full of terms like “disorientation when hiking” or even “hiking dyspraxia” that looks like a misnomer to me. However, the main message is, people can suddenly get disoriented at poorly marked trails.

I wonder what was the elevation of the trail? Thinking, Patty was healthy, but any new inner ear infection, for example, could cause dizziness and disorientation. We poorly know Patty’s family history. I think there should have been a reason for disorientation, but we know the situation too poorly.

 

[Curiousobserver]

There must be a sense of relief for the family that they at least know where to look.

I am surprised that a towel and a shoe survived in a form complete enough to identify ownership after being in the water for a year or more.

As an avid hiker it is very easy to go off on the wrong trail, to think you know where you're going when you don't, and to make simple mistakes that escalate quickly. We obviously don't know what happened to her and may never know, but getting lost, then injured, is in MOO the very likely explanation. From the beginning it seemed likely from comments by other hikers that she was never on her planned route.

 

[jennytrevor]

I'm not sure how closely others in this thread follow other missing hiker cases, but I would recommend reading posts on the blog of Tom Mahood (who found the death valley germans) and his search for missing hiker Bill Ewasko to get a handle on how hard it is to find someone out in the wild when you don't know what exactly happened. Bill Ewasko's body was found in 2022 and in a different location than expected because it turned out that the most likely presumed set of events leading to him going missing was not accurate. I wonder if when Pattie's body is recovered, its location will suggest unexpected circumstances.

Searching for Bill Ewasko

You haven’t failed at something until you officially give up. (Whoever said this is an idiot). William Michael Ewasko, age 65, visiting from Marietta, Georgia, went on a day hike in Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) on Thursday June 24, 2010. He hasn’t been seen since. This is the story of my...

www.otherhand.org

 

[iamshadow21]

There must be a sense of relief for the family that they at least know where to look.

I am surprised that a towel and a shoe survived in a form complete enough to identify ownership after being in the water for a year or more.

As an avid hiker it is very easy to go off on the wrong trail, to think you know where you're going when you don't, and to make simple mistakes that escalate quickly. We obviously don't know what happened to her and may never know, but getting lost, then injured, is in MOO the very likely explanation. From the beginning it seemed likely from comments by other hikers that she was never on her planned route.

The towel, yeah, that's a surprise if it's 100% cotton, but modern shoes are mostly made of plastic. They don't break down in a year.

MOO

 

[DS2021]

I'm not sure how closely others in this thread follow other missing hiker cases, but I would recommend reading posts on the blog of Tom Mahood (who found the death valley germans) and his search for missing hiker Bill Ewasko to get a handle on how hard it is to find someone out in the wild when you don't know what exactly happened. Bill Ewasko's body was found in 2022 and in a different location than expected because it turned out that the most likely presumed set of events leading to him going missing was not accurate. I wonder if when Pattie's body is recovered, its location will suggest unexpected circumstances.

Searching for Bill Ewasko

You haven’t failed at something until you officially give up. (Whoever said this is an idiot). William Michael Ewasko, age 65, visiting from Marietta, Georgia, went on a day hike in Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) on Thursday June 24, 2010. He hasn’t been seen since. This is the story of my...

www.otherhand.org

Lost Hiker Was Two Miles From Trail When She Died

Hiker found two years after she got lost in the Maine woods left heartbreaking message before she died.

www.google.com

Geraldine comes to mind. She was 2 miles off the trail and it took 3 years to find her.

She was still alive when the search for her began

Found Deceased - ME - Gerry Largay, 66, Appalachian Trail, 21 July 2013

 

[Curiousobserver]

I'm not sure how closely others in this thread follow other missing hiker cases, but I would recommend reading posts on the blog of Tom Mahood (who found the death valley germans) and his search for missing hiker Bill Ewasko to get a handle on how hard it is to find someone out in the wild when you don't know what exactly happened. Bill Ewasko's body was found in 2022 and in a different location than expected because it turned out that the most likely presumed set of events leading to him going missing was not accurate. I wonder if when Pattie's body is recovered, its location will suggest unexpected circumstances.

Searching for Bill Ewasko

You haven’t failed at something until you officially give up. (Whoever said this is an idiot). William Michael Ewasko, age 65, visiting from Marietta, Georgia, went on a day hike in Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) on Thursday June 24, 2010. He hasn’t been seen since. This is the story of my...

www.otherhand.org

You are exactly right- this is a vastly underappreciate task.

There is an entire thread devoted to SAR missing people after searching right on top of them multiple times.

Thread 'Remains Found in Area After LE/SAR Searches'

Jul 15, 2021

@bombardier compiled an excellent starter list of MP cases that ended with the person's remains found in/near a location that had already been searched (some multiple times) by LE/SAR. Other WS members added a few cases to the list as well. I and others thought it would be useful to start a thread in order to track these types of cases as case study analyses could prove useful in future cases. Please feel free to add summaries of similar cases of which you are aware. MOO

Great post and thanks again, @bombardier!
#

TX - TX - Jason Landry, 21, enroute from TSU to home, car...

• YaYa_521
• Replies: 72
• Forum: General Information & Discussion

• 

Imagine how hard it is to find someone in a Walmart, which is well lit and organized (my wife has the ability to become invisible inside Walmart), now imagine a 1 sq mile radius is 30 times larger than that, and a 10 mile radius is 50,000X larger than that with trees, grass, leaves, holes, mud, water etc...

Again, we don't know what happened to Patty, and we might never know if she got lost or if there was foul-play involved.

 

[Cryptic]

but I never looked into hiking disorientation. Certain well-traveled forums are full of terms like “disorientation when hiking” or even “hiking dyspraxia” that looks like a misnomer to me. However, the main message is, people can suddenly get disoriented at poorly marked trails.
.

I am a believer as I have experienced it.

I don't think the causes reflect a deep mental condition. Rather, it stems from the sudden transition from "having fun" to "lost- and alone".

On the time in question, I "memorized" my map- yeah right, before giving it to another hiker who wanted to turn back. Then.... there was the deliberately twisted trail sign pointing in the wrong direction.

The end result, is that I "tunnel visioned" as dusk started to fall. I literally could not see the over all terrain and could not act on the fact that the trail head was at a lower elevation. I could only see what was in front of me. I wasted time going in repeated circles on a mesa.

Before light faded completely, I made a dash down the mesa, out of the park and to a rural paved road. Fortunately, a friendly rancher gave me a ride to the one stop sign town- civilization at last!

 

[ZaZara]

YAHOO: Interview with Kirk Murad about the recent findings. Scroll down for the video in the second report.

Family of CT woman missing in Japan says her backpack was found. Her shoe was there too.

The entries to both trails are close to each other, but Murad said his wife was such experienced hiker that it’s hard to think she would make that kind of mistake.

“The trail wasn’t really well-marked until after she went missing,” he said.

Murad said his son hiked this particular trail when the family went to Japan to look for Wu-Murad and that it was treacherous. His daughter and search and rescue team also searched on the trail.

“We did mathematical probability, the probability was 90 percent that if she fell, she fell to the left,” he said. “So we searched to the left and the bag was found to the right.

“But we don’t know if she got on the wrong trail. It just raises more questions than it gives answers,” he said.

 

[ZaZara]

Lost Hiker Was Two Miles From Trail When She Died

Hiker found two years after she got lost in the Maine woods left heartbreaking message before she died.

www.google.com

Geraldine comes to mind. She was 2 miles off the trail and it took 3 years to find her.

She was still alive when the search for her began

Found Deceased - ME - Gerry Largay, 66, Appalachian Trail, 21 July 2013

Geraldine Largay was known to have a bad sense of orientation. She was fine as long as she was with her friend, but when the friend had to leave, Gerry decided to continue despite this handicap.

No such limitation has been mentioned about Pattie.

If Pattie got lost, why didn't she use her phone?

 

[Cryptic]

If Pattie got lost, why didn't she use her phone?

Even in relatively populated areas, it fairly common not to have cell phone reception on trails.

 

[slowpoke]

RSBM & BBM

IMO the trail that wasn't really well marked is not the Kohechi trail, but Kirk is referring to the other trail, the one that Pattie wasn't supposed to be on.

So instead of taking the well-marked Kohechi trail, Pattie (an experienced hiker) allegedly chose the badly marked other trail. I can imagine that Kirk is confused about this. And rightfully says that they don't know if indeed she got on that trail. (I would like to add that even if she chose the wrong trail, she would have noticed her mistake soon, because if you are walking north to south, the sun is on your right hand side in the morning.)

I hope the family manages to organize another search party soon. To search the right side of that trail, and also the other side of the stream where the items were found.

Upon rereading Kirk’s remark, I guess it can be he was referring to the ‘not KohechI’ one.

However, in the past the daughter wrote (LINK to your very helpful post back in May 2023 — where I got these quotes):

“we have learned a handful of people have struggled finding the entrance to the Kumano Kodo in this area. Since Pattie’s disappearance, new signs have been put in place in multiple areas in Miura Guchi (where Mandokoro is located)”

and

“Although there is a sign that says "Not Kumano Kodo" at the beginning of this route, we also discovered multiple white banners tied around trees that said "Kohechi Trail" in orange letters. These banners were used for a trail running event back in October of 2022.”
—-

So, whatever Kirk meant, it can be surmised that it is seems plausible to confuse the entrance to the Kohechi trail, and is looking more and more was Pattie’s mistake leading to her demise.

MOO

 

[Babylon Sister]

dbm- repeat of previously posted info

 

[Curiousobserver]

A forensic analysis of the pack should be able to tell if it has been lying on a person's body all this time. Details like the chest clasps being still linked together could indicate she never removed the pack.