bbm
Thanks for bringing up probability, as I was thinking about that myself. Possibility vs. Probability.
I was thinking more how the scenario envisioned by everyone of how Terri took Kyron fails to make sense, but I probably (ha!) used the wrong words here. Sorry.
Probability as in statistics and such, I don't really care about. It's the facts that matter. The evidence. And I realize that statistics and non-scientific methods of judgments (behaviour analysis, polygraphs) are pushed in this case because the facts and evidence of Terri's involvement just aren't there.
Years ago, I did hours of research trying to find a case similar to Kyron’s. The theory has long been that a stranger, (I’ve never heard that it was a volunteer or staff member, that’s a new one. It’s always been an unknown subject) came into the school during the science fair, and because it was so “chaotic and unorganized,” the stranger was able to take Kyron out of the building and disappear him. For years, some have insisted that Kyron’s school was responsible for his disappearance, and should be sued by his parents, as noted above. (Not only did they not sue the school, but my understanding is that Kaine started his daughter out at the same school Kyron attended. Why did he do that? And if Terri believed the school was responsible, wouldn't she have been terrified and fought to not let that happen?)
If she believed the school was responsible due to lax procedures (and it's hard to argue that it wasn't) then at least that would have been taken care of, for no other reason than self-preservation. I think Terri had a lot of ideas of what happened over the years, with few means to settle on one scenario in particular (since the ones who should do that decided to settle on her instead). Being innocent, she isn't afforded the luxury of single-mindedness that her accusers have.
But yeah, the school made it out golden and Kaine didn't sue, because everyone (Kaine included) immediately placed all blame on Terri. The idea that it's a mark against Terri that no one sues the school and no one looks for the unidentified man is ridiculous. If LE et al were more discerning (and competent) they wouldn't have put all their eggs in the Terri basket, with embarrassing (for them) results.
Front office staff are responsible for verifying that those checking out students are legitimate. There have been a few cases of the wrong people checking students out, with those people intending to harm the children. And those schools should be sued. Note that nobody checked Kyron out of the school. They simply walked out a door, without being challenged. Who would be able to do that? Someone that school staff would not question because the child belonged with the adult. Someone like Terri.
This all rests on the assumption that when Kyron walked out of the school it was with the seeming intention of leaving it. Would asking a kid to just pop outside and get something from a truck in the parking lot require signing out? In a school where kids could go outside unattended (as testified by the groundskeeper)?
(cont.)
Several cases have been cited in the discussions of the past several days, such as Brittanie Drexel and Meredith Kercher, cases where someone has been falsely suspected. Those are not appropriate comparisons, as none of them had anything to do with a disappeared child. Cases have been cited, such as Jacob Wetterling, involving a stranger abduction. Those are also poor comparisons, because none of those cases involved a child disappearing from a school.
I cited all three of these not as examples of a similar crime (that would be ridiculous), but as cases with a similar tunnel vision, and where the single-minded pursuit of an individual by LE is taken as proof that the LE are correct. In the Drexel case, the family of the victim also pushed the LE theory, telling the public that there was more evidence that hadn't been revealed.
This fairly typical comment (from the Drexel thread) is pretty similar to what has been said in the Horman threads:
Well, the evidence seems to be pointing at the Taylors. I think the FBI knows a lot more than they are telling and I strongly suspect that they have evidence, other than the informants, that puts Brittany at the stash house. I really think that this case is now just a matter of time.
Turns out they had nothing. The Taylors were completely unrelated.
And without a doubt parents were suspected in all those cases. None of those parents got a lawyer within a month, nor gave up a child to keep from talking.
There continues to be this worrying notion that getting a lawyer when the police begin to target you is a sign of guilt. Terri didn't get a lawyer until it became clear the police were trying to incriminate her (via a sting operation). Did that happen to any of the other parents? Because if it did, they too should have gotten lawyers.
It is “possible” but highly improbable that a stranger took Kyron from the school. It reminds me of the claim that wild animals disappear children. For example a toddler missing from a campground was, according to some, carried off by an animal, leaving no blood or other sign of the child, nor any sign of attack. The most probable event in that case, that the toddler was disappeared by his parents, was abandoned by some for the most improbable theory, that an animal carried the child away, with no sign or evidence. So let’s believe the most improbable theory instead of the most probable.
Cold comfort for Lindy Chamberlain.
That seems to be what some are doing, by claiming the likelihood of a stranger taking Kyron from a school building.
I honestly don't care about likelihood. I care about facts and evidence. And what we have now speaks against Terri's involvement.
“But there’s a first time for everything!” So Terri is the most unfortunate person ever, the victim of a rare event, an
abduction of her step-son from a school, still missing after 12 years. It doesn’t happen, but it happened to her. Don’t look at what is most probable, look at what is most improbable. Don’t look over here, look over there. Minimize her behavior, as it doesn’t tell you anything. Minimize her abandonment of her tiny child. Keep the “big lie” going, that the school and the teacher were responsible. And by the way, I am very troubled by the denigration of Kyron’s teacher, based on suppositions and no facts.
Don't look at the lack of evidence. Don't look at the failure of the police to get an indictment after 12 years. Don't look at their admitted mistakes regarding cell phone data, their failed stings, their reliance on voodoo science like polygraphs, the disagreement from the FBI.
No, look at her behaviour. Let "experts" (i.e. self-taught) analyze the way she looks up here, the way she frowns here. She didn't do enough to get visitations with her daughter on the advise of her lawyer. I, who have never been in a similar situation, would obviously act differently. Didn't she sext someone? Isn't she a BAD MOTHER(tm)?
And isn't being a BAD MOTHER basically the same as being guilty of murder?
Denigration based on suppositions and no facts. Yeah, don't want to do that.
It doesn’t happen, because: there is a whole staff of people at school who are charged with monitoring, supervising, and watching the students. That’s their only job. Unless you’ve ever worked at a school, it’s hard to explain the mindset you develop. You scan the room or hallway or playground. In some situations, you count heads. Teachers will tell you that when they’re off duty, it’s hard to shake that mindset, you find yourself telling children, “Don’t run!”
Would this include the parents who were set to chaperone the children during their tour of the exhibits? Outside the view of the teachers?
Parents at home may have many distractions, and there may be just one person watching a child. Who is supervising a child on their journey to and from the school or the bus stop? No adults.
I reject the idea that it would have been easier to take a child from a school event. I submit that teachers are even more hyper-alert at this kind of event. They and their students are “on display,” they are in front of parents. School assemblies, science fairs, art shows, teachers are watching the kids like hawks. Teachers would have been more alert in that situation, not less. Unless, a parent had communicated that they were going to take a child to an appointment after they looked at the science fair. Perhaps the teacher reminded Terri, don’t forget to check him out! But she didn’t.
Again, probability vs possibility may not help with establishing evidence. But is a common sense way of looking at the case.
In my experience, "common sense" is mostly used as an excuse to stick with pre-conceived notions. A lot of this is how teachers should be, not how they actually are. And what they are is people. Sometimes people slip up, and they obviously did here. The illogical idea that Terri used her appointment as an reason to remove Kyron from the school, even if it happened (and I have never seen anyone from LE say it did), is no excuse for the failure of the teacher here.
There's so much stereotyping going round in this case. A mother wouldn't do this. A teacher wouldn't do that. An innocent person wouldn't behave like this. Usually with the writer themselves as the measure of what's right, and often in situations that they haven't experienced themselves, but are still certain they knew how they would react to.
