Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #19

[mrjitty]

“It is understood that he gave his testimony to police in return for a reduction of a seven-year sentence for smuggling three migrants.” So HB is getting financial compensation AND a reduced sentence. To me, he is either getting a deal and HB is involved with MM in some way but isn’t the main perpetrator so he is getting a ‘reward’ for giving the info about CB and it would explain why he hasn’t come forward in so long as he did not have an incentive OR this info will lead to CBs arrest as it’s very vital.

The article also said that a child had been raped at the 2007 dragon festival which CB may have attended.

This would tend to indicate that the bar room confession was invented to obscure this witness.

 

[Sharkbite]

According to statements seen by The Sun, Busching was asked by a Scotland Yard detective named as Mark, to look closely at Google satellite images of the Algarve.
Madeleine McCann witness so crucial cops sealed off entire hotel and swept the building for bugs while interviewing him

I wonder if HB was being shown up to date or historical Google Earth satellite imagery.
Maybe he was being shown a place that has dramatically changed. My first thought that it may have been the 'Ocean Country' development on Rocha Negra that was demolished between 22/10/2006 and 22/06/2007 that was located less than 500m from the PDL farmhouse, so an area HB would have some knowledge of.


Location and how it looks today.
خرائط ‪Google‬‏‏

Anyway. like I said it could have been anywhere, so just a thought

 

[Chiatos]

''But he never actually told me what it was that he told Scotland Yard about Christian B and Madeleine, it must have been important because he came back a few days later with lots of money and he was hoppa (drunk) hoppa (drunk).''

Surely they would not give HB money unless it leads to a conviction? I thought HB was seen as credible as he wasn't receiving monetary compensation for his statement?

Madeleine McCann witness so crucial cops sealed off entire hotel and swept the building for bugs while interviewing him

They're not supposed to pay him at all if you ask me!

 

[mrjitty]

“It is understood that he gave his testimony to police in return for a reduction of a seven-year sentence for smuggling three migrants.” So HB is getting financial compensation AND a reduced sentence. To me, he is either getting a deal and HB is involved with MM in some way but isn’t the main perpetrator so he is getting a ‘reward’ for giving the info about CB and it would explain why he hasn’t come forward in so long as he did not have an incentive OR this info will lead to CBs arrest as it’s very vital.

The article also said that a child had been raped at the 2007 dragon festival which CB may have attended.

I also note from this, he seemed to go backwards and forwards between Portugal and Germany as part of his drug dealing.

Likely he was buying in portugal, and selling in germany.

This all leads me to wonder if the "material evidence" is something CB told HB in 2008, that LE were then able to verify after the 2017 meeting with the Met. (Just like the rape of the American). Something to do with how he sought to conceal his guilt, but that does not tie specifically to the victim.

The only problem is, what witness could possibly come forward?

These guys are all unsophisticated low rent career crooks. Surely it is not hard to figure out who CBs other associates were back in 07/08.

 

[Chiatos]

That's Murat's VW. It's a special shade of green, not blue.
Robert Murats camper van 33 year old Editorial Stock Photo - Stock Image | Shutterstock

The colour is blue.
It says so in the file: azul.

 

[Dlk79]

This all leads me to wonder if the "material evidence" is something CB told HB in 2008, that LE were then able to verify after the 2017 meeting with the Met. (Just like the rape of the American). Something to do with how he sought to conceal his guilt, but that does not tie specifically to the victim.

Like what though? The 2017 rape was verified by forensic evidence, the hair they found belonging to CB. HCW has openly admitted they don't have any forensic evidence in this case.

The "material evidence" refers to evidence that MM is dead with certainty in the eyes of the Prosecutor. I don't think an alleged confession fits that description. Plus HCW makes out that HB is not a key witness so that indicates whatever HB told them in 2017, it was just the instigation of the investigation, nothing to do with the actual material evidence they found. HCW said they came to the conclusion MM was dead in 2018, which is when I suspect they found this material evidence.

Photos or a video would certainly fit the description based on what we've heard, I'm yet to see any other possible evidence suggested that sounds plausible.

I know you keep saying it can't be a video as they would surely have informed the parents if they had one, but I think you are in the minority with that opinion. There are obvious reasons why they might not, which have been discussed here over and over. Even if it wasn't a video but something else, your argument still doesn't stack up as if it proves MM's death, why haven’t they let the McCanns in on that either? Why does it make a difference if it was a video?

 

[MENDEL]

My thoughts too.

I also think that everything released by FF is strategic - persuasion is his job.

The statement re "wouldn't let CB look after my kids but dogs OK" = OK so I know my client isn't safe around kids but he's not that bad really.

The statement re falling off chairs in UK - is this like saying "I'm getting closer...be very afraid" and aiming to get someone to come forward?

Not sure whether this has been raised before but maybe the memory sticks that CB hid aren't all his, could have been stolen from someone else and maybe he has now given up information that implicates someone else. The "horrible job" - maybe nothing to do with MM, could refer to anything - a burglary perhaps?

I'm baffled by the death threats that FF says he has received. It's a high profile case, very emotive - but death threats? Who are they from and how many? (not really expecting answers, and maybe I'm being dim but I just don't get it)

"Horrible job", after which he wouldn't be seen for a while might be the November 1, 2007 burglary where he stole 100.000€ and then fled to his Kleingarten in Hannover with NF (witnessed by one of the neighbors interviewed in last episode of "Sexta as 9"). Just a thought. Once witness only made a connection between MM and "horrible job" many years after, dating can be a lot imprecise.

 

[mrjitty]

Like what though? The 2017 rape was verified by forensic evidence, the hair they found belonging to CB. HCW has openly admitted they don't have any forensic evidence in this case.

The "material evidence" refers to evidence that MM is dead with certainty in the eyes of the Prosecutor. I don't think an alleged confession fits that description. Plus HCW makes out that HB is not a key witness so that indicates whatever HB told them in 2017, it was just the instigation of the investigation, nothing to do with the actual material evidence they found. HCW said they came to the conclusion MM was dead in 2018, which is when I suspect they found this material evidence.

Photos or a video would certainly fit the description based on what we've heard, I'm yet to see any other possible evidence suggested that sounds plausible.

I know you keep saying it can't be a video as they would surely have informed the parents if they had one, but I think you are in the minority with that opinion. There are obvious reasons why they might not, which have been discussed here over and over. Even if it wasn't a video but something else, your argument still doesn't stack up as if it proves MM's death, why haven’t they let the McCanns in on that either? Why does it make a difference if it was a video?

I am thinking something that confirms broader elements of the crime

Perhaps HB led them to a different witness who saw photos for example - but these photos might have been exteriors, or even a photo of the family before the crime. But Wolters does not have these photos/trophies and can't find them.

So hypothetically they have been able to confirm him as someone who entered those apartments before (burglary), was planning something, gave a false alibi, engaged in covering up (his car registration), kept trophies, and then confessed the rest of the details in 2008.

Something like this would explain how they have 95% confidence in their theory of the case, but nothing that specifically ties CB to the victim.

Like with the video of the American, whatever there was no longer exists, but the difference is, in the American rape case, they had the forensic evidence to link him to the crime scene. This time they don't have that.

 

[axelcruze]

Isn't the prosecutor looking for a murder charge because abduction can't be proved? if CB was a lone wolf and operated a seperate life via dark web. The witness statements are unreliable, other than some of his crook mates who knew him better and he possibly told them she's dead when drunk? and if he told them she's dead and there's an image or video that shows this with metadata, then is murder the only charge they can go with here? Not been looking into this case for long, but i feel that the time and place with regards explosion of online dark webs, this was a source of income and he did horrific video/images for people to buy/order (pensioner, young woman etc) rather than as trophies. With Dark web, i think the market probably moved on and it was more online based than physical meet ups wityh other pedos.

 

[MENDEL]

This is in Pj files , just with the talk of the blue van, does anyone know why this is documented ??

That van was parked in Murat's house, as Mr Jitty told. A "K" on plate in 2007 means an imported used car. The car is built for driving on right, so it wasn't imported from UK, but perhaps from Mainland Europe. When searching for plate registration it no longer exists for that car. This may mean IMO 1) he replaced plate with one without "K" (later allowed and not compulsory) 2) the car was destroyed (accident for instance) or 3) the car was exported (to Germany for instance).

 

[Dlk79]

I am thinking something that confirms broader elements of the crime

Perhaps HB led them to a different witness who saw photos for example - but these photos might have been exteriors, or even a photo of the family before the crime. But Wolters does not have these photos/trophies and can't find them.

So hypothetically they have been able to confirm him as someone who entered those apartments before (burglary), was planning something, gave a false alibi, engaged in covering up (his car registration), kept trophies, and then confessed the rest of the details in 2008.

Something like this would explain how they have 95% confidence in their theory of the case, but nothing that specifically ties CB to the victim.

Like with the video of the American, whatever there was no longer exists, but the difference is, in the American rape case, they had the forensic evidence to link him to the crime scene. This time they don't have that.

But none of that provides proof of death which is what HCW claims the material evidence shows. In theory they could have all those things you mention but still not be able to say she was dead or not with certainty.

 

[mrjitty]

Isn't the prosecutor looking for a murder charge because abduction can't be proved? if CB was a lone wolf and operated a seperate life via dark web. The witness statements are unreliable, other than some of his crook mates who knew him better and he possibly told them she's dead when drunk? and if he told them she's dead and there's an image or video that shows this with metadata, then is murder the only charge they can go with here? Not been looking into this case for long, but i feel that the time and place with regards explosion of online dark webs, this was a source of income and he did horrific video/images for people to buy/order (pensioner, young woman etc) rather than as trophies. With Dark web, i think the market probably moved on and it was more online based than physical meet ups wityh other pedos.

The big problem with any murder charge in a case like this is you must prove the victim is dead, so the global search since 2007 with 1000s of sightings is a huge problem in that regard.

But death and culpability may be inferred from circumstantial evidence.

In a famous missing body case in NZ two teenagers were abducted by the perp on his boat from a NYE party after he apparently offered them a place to sleep when their boat was full. The bodies were never recovered, but a hair of the woman placed them on the boat. The prosecution case was he murdered them, sailed out in the channel, dumped them in deep water, then repainted his boat.

From the circumstantial evidence, the jury was invited to infer he murdered them. Of crucial importance was that police went though the 100+ other boats in the harbour and eliminated them.

That case remains very controversial but shows the latitude. IMO if you have a confession AND a photo of a victim who has otherwise not been seen for 13 years, you have more than enough to charge.

Sure CB can claim he found it on the internet, but that is not very credible unless the defence can back up such claims, IMO

I am attracted to the hypothesis they have found evidence and testimony that shows them the broad sweep of the offence, and which allows inference of death, but for a murder trial you ultimately need at least one piece of forensic evidence which ties the accused specifically to the victim.

Like in the Pilley case in Scotland, that evidence was a cadaver dog hit on the accused car boot.

 

[SuperdadV8]

HCW's statement:

"We have no margin of Maneuver."

seems crucial enough to be sure, that this persuasion isn't made by a verdict, a testimony or just adding 1 and 1 together!

Until there will be a charge, the evidence they have for death won't be made public. Not even shared with PJ and SY, because it likely will make it to the media.

Who wants that? Forcing an outcry, that someone has to be punished for that, who is not already able to be charged? I don't!

Somebody altruistic that claims to be a witness to the crime, just to bring CB to jail and is proven wrong in court, so the chances for a conviction decrease? I don't!

The missing link, the final part of the jigsaw should be the evidence that proves, that the suspect was in front or in apartment 5A at OC on May the 3rd 2007, between 20.00 - 22.00 o clock, due to the lack of forensics.

And i can't read, that investigations will not go on over the next years. We must give them the time they need, to get the evidence or a possible confession.

 

[mrjitty]

But none of that provides proof of death which is what HCW claims the material evidence shows. In theory they could have all those things you mention but still not be able to say she was dead or not with certainty.

Death is typically inferred from circumstantial evidence in no body cases.

So for example is you have evidence reinforcing the abduction / murder confession - you can infer death from there seeing as how MM is missing for 13 years

But proof BARD is a problem where the defence can point to competing theories from 2 other police forces

Anyway - I have outlined my hypothesis. Maybe we will find out more!

 

[MENDEL]

The big problem with any murder charge in a case like this is you must prove the victim is dead, so the global search since 2007 with 1000s of sightings is a huge problem in that regard.

But death and culpability may be inferred from circumstantial evidence.

In a famous missing body case in NZ two teenagers were abducted by the perp on his boat from a NYE party after he apparently offered them a place to sleep when their boat was full. The bodies were never recovered, but a hair of the woman placed them on the boat. The prosecution case was he murdered them, sailed out in the channel, dumped them in deep water, then repainted his boat.

From the circumstantial evidence, the jury was invited to infer he murdered them. Of crucial importance was that police went though the 100+ other boats in the harbour and eliminated them.

That case remains very controversial but shows the latitude. IMO if you have a confession AND a photo of a victim who has otherwise not been seen for 13 years, you have more than enough to charge.

Sure CB can claim he found it on the internet, but that is not very credible unless the defence can back up such claims, IMO

I am attracted to the hypothesis they have found evidence and testimony that shows them the broad sweep of the offence, and which allows inference of death, but for a murder trial you ultimately need at least one piece of forensic evidence which ties the accused specifically to the victim.

Like in the Pilley case in Scotland, that evidence was a cadaver dog hit on the accused car boot.

Yes, quite controversial if that's all evidence to charge him. Proof is that they checked 100+ boats to make the finding meaningful, which is a huge inference.

 

[mrjitty]

The missing link, the final part of the jigsaw should be the evidence that proves, that the suspect was in front or in apartment 5A at OC on May the 3rd 2007, between 20.00 - 22.00 o clock, due to the lack of forensics.

RSBM

I think they'll never have the evidence that places him so close

I spent a lot of time on the McStay case, where the bodies were not found for 4 years, and it remains uncertain where the family were murdered. Unfortunately the gravesite also did not tie the accused to the murders.

The prosecution was ultimately built on an extensive web of circumstantial evidence, and especially the suspicious behaviour of the accused after the crime. I am wondering if that is more what we are talking about.

What unusual things did he do in the days after May 3rd?

 

[MENDEL]

HCW's statement:

"We have no margin of Maneuver."

seems crucial enough to be sure, that this persuasion isn't made by a verdict, a testimony or just adding 1 and 1 together!

Until there will be a charge, the evidence they have for death won't be made public. Not even shared with PJ and SY, because it likely will make it to the media.

Who wants that? Forcing an outcry, that someone has to be punished for that, who is not already able to be charged? I don't!

Somebody altruistic that claims to be a witness to the crime, just to bring CB to jail and is proven wrong in court, so the chances for a conviction decrease? I don't!

The missing link, the final part of the jigsaw should be the evidence that proves, that the suspect was in front or in apartment 5A at OC on May the 3rd 2007, between 20.00 - 22.00 o clock, due to the lack of forensics.

And i can't read, that investigations will not go on over the next years. We must give them the time they need, to get the evidence or a possible confession.

Of course those pics would never be leaked to the press. My opinion is that PJ and SY are interested parties to the case and so if Herr Wolters admits he has such pictures, both LE can request them judicially for their prosecutions. He seems to be facing many dilemmas and this is perhaps one of them.

 

[BIZCOCHO]

IMO. Taking into account what we know so far, that the evidence is not enough but is like a puzzle, I think that HCW could have:
- Photos or video of Maddie alive in the previous hours or days with CB acting as in the abuses that we already know.
- CB confessions to accomplices, ex-girlfriends and /or cellmates (IMO more than one).
- Evidence that he was the one who robbed the other Ocean Club apartments (a phone, a camera, an identifiable watch that he took to the box factory or Ausburg and that it belonged to the victims of those robberies) and perhaps someone who identified CB hanging around the Ocean Club in the previous days.
- His mobile phone in the area that day (BKA may have also found that cell phone in the box factory).
- Confirmation that he lied when summoned in 2013 and evidence that he fabricated an alibi.
- Internet chats very similar to reality.
IMO
If HCW had CB's pictures of Maddie dead or dying it would be enough to press charges. Photos or video of Maddie alive (on the beach or in the OC taking advantage of a distraction from parents or staff) would make CB the prime suspect and would justify the statements with the long pause from FF to Sandra Felgueiras.
I believe that the murder may be a deduction based on his profile, on his confessions and on the knowledge of what CB did the following hours and days.
IMO

 

[mrjitty]

Yes, quite controversial if that's all evidence to charge him. Proof is that they checked 100+ boats to make the finding meaningful, which is a huge inference.

Yes and especially they had that one piece of evidence that placed the girl on his boat.

For me the inference of MM's death has never been the main problem on this case, if you can infer CB is the abductor. Night follows day. IMO the material evidence goes to abduction.

But can you prove that BARD - especially given the decision in the Lisbon trial? That is a gift to any defence team.

 

[MENDEL]

RSBM

I think they'll never have the evidence that places him so close

I spent a lot of time on the McStay case, where the bodies were not found for 4 years, and it remains uncertain where the family were murdered. Unfortunately the gravesite also did not tie the accused to the murders.

The prosecution was ultimately built on an extensive web of circumstantial evidence, and especially the suspicious behaviour of the accused after the crime. I am wondering if that is more what we are talking about.

What unusual things did he do in the days after May 3rd?

I believe Herr Wolters is too confident he can jump from location directly to death, something unwarranted IMO in such a complex case where every detail from investigations will be brought to court.