Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #21

[Denis R Tandib]

Well, germans like me aren't always that efficient. You maybe wouldn't believe how error-prone or impulsive most of us are. We are not working like machines and most of us can be very empathic.

But yes, sometimes we put efficiency above empathy. I do not really know why....

IMO, if the suspect wanted to remove a special "item" out of 5A, he had enough possibilites to do so, if you ask me!

To understand that, you might have to think like a person that is capable of snatching a three year old. I can only try to do so, like most of us i hope....

Sorry, I first tried to add an emoji and then delete the post - I didn’t want to, in any way, offend you.

Your comment above does suggest that the intention going into 5A was to abduct MM. Other than the fact that she disappeared, are there any other reasons you suspect that motive?

 

[Okapi]

Except he is not just a burglar. From his convictions we know he's a monster that enjoys hurting people including children.


There are witness statements suggesting the appt was watched. There is a witness statements from a previous tourists who had children whose baby sitter found a man hanging round


There was the perfect opportunity - I can imagine the Tapas 7s behaviour was commented upon if not with malice then with incredulity

And he entered the easiest appt with a child - the one offering the easiest way in and out. Not 5L or 4A.

Look on paper Newthoughts, yes it would make more sense for him to exit with his prize. I agree there are elements that support that the child was targeted viz the witness reports of men loitering and staring.

But I also agree with redplanet that plans may have changed as soon as he entered 5a. Because of his compulsive sexual behaviour.

I think dlk79's post waaaayy back making the link between the phraseology of HCW and the known circumstances on the night the child disappeared is also convincing (confident of her death but not how she died, no mention of the word abduction or kidnapping etc). This has also been persuasively reasoned by Denis. For me, this is a compelling argument that whether planned or spontaneous, MBM came to harm in situ.

And never say never, back to her sleep patterns. As we've previously discussed, what if - conjecture - MBM was awake, or stirred, as CB crept into her room? He would have to silence her, primarily so that he didn't have three crying children. The 2-year-olds in particular would be far more likely to wail in distress at a stranger's unexpected appearance in their bedroom. The silence/restraint could easily spill over into abuse. It pains me to contemplate that.

 

[Loobyloo]

Your comment above does suggest that the intention going into 5A was to abduct MM. Other than the fact that she disappeared, are there any other reasons you suspect that motive?

One reason I have is CB's reported comment to a girlfriend that he had a 'horrible job' to do the next day, after which he would need to lie low. If that report is true, it doesn't fit with planning to burgle the apartment, since burglary was almost a regular occupation for him.

The 'abduction to order' theory seems to have fallen out of favour recently in discussions here, but I still find it quite persuasive.

 

[redplanet]

Silencing-restraint (without any other type of abuse) might be sufficient to cause death in situ IMO.

Look on paper Newthoughts, yes it would make more sense for him to exit with his prize. I agree there are elements that support that the child was targeted viz the witness reports of men loitering and staring.

But I also agree with redplanet that plans may have changed as soon as he entered 5a. Because of his compulsive sexual behaviour.

I think dlk79's post waaaayy back making the link between the phraseology of HCW and the known circumstances on the night the child disappeared is also convincing (confident of her death but not how she died, no mention of the word abduction or kidnapping etc). This has also been persuasively reasoned by Denis. For me, this is a compelling argument that whether planned or spontaneous, MBM came to harm in situ.

And never say never, back to her sleep patterns. As we've previously discussed, what if - conjecture - MBM was awake, or stirred, as CB crept into her room? He would have to silence her, primarily so that he didn't have three crying children. The 2-year-olds in particular would be far more likely to wail in distress at a stranger's unexpected appearance in their bedroom. The silence/restraint could easily spill over into abuse. It pains me to contemplate that.

 

[Okapi]

This is just a thought, so if he killed her in the apartment, why not then just leave her there?

This is where I wonder if she was taken to another site with the intention of acquiring video or images

 

[Denis R Tandib]

One reason I have is CB's reported comment to a girlfriend that he had a 'horrible job' to do the next day, after which he would need to lie low. If that report is true, it doesn't fit with planning to burgle the apartment, since burglary was almost a regular occupation for him.

The 'abduction to order' theory seems to have fallen out of favour recently in discussions here, but I still find it quite persuasive.

I agree that this comment, when taken in context of what we know now, does suggest a plan. @Dlk79 has put forward several reasonable explanations of what this means. His strongest point however is that it’s not a direct quote from the GF in question. It is a quote from a friend of of the GF and it was published without the source.

I am not saying this wasn’t said by CB, it may have been. What I am saying is that this is the one clue, that I’m aware of, that supports a planned abduction. Given that we don’t know who heard it and we don’t know who reported it to the press I think it’s a shaky foundation to build a theory on.

To be honest, I feel that this report is often treated as credible. Yet written police statements from upstanding members of the community (many of whom are doctors) are dismissed because they don’t fit a particular theory, to me ... this doesn’t make sense!

I guess that even though our investigation is a joint hobby, IMO it carries the same qualities as an actual investigation. Over time, with thought and with new information, some theories become more likely than others.

 

[Ardoch]

Is there not a possible relevance in the fact that MM was abducted towards the end of the holiday that could link it to a planned abduction? Here was a group of parents who walked down a main street, were seen dining together in the restaurant every night and without their children.

 

[Newthoughts]

Is there not a possible relevance in the fact that MM was abducted towards the end of the holiday that could link it to a planned abduction? Here was a group of parents who walked down a main street, were seen dining together in the restaurant every night and without their children.

I think so. Plenty of time to observe who does what. Plenty of time for gossip about them (not with malice or to give a heads up but just normal gossip) to circulate round

I agree that this comment, when taken in context of what we know now, does suggest a plan. @Dlk79 has put forward several reasonable explanations of what this means. His strongest point however is that it’s not a direct quote from the GF in question. It is a quote from a friend of of the GF and it was published without the source.

I am not saying this wasn’t said by CB, it may have been. What I am saying is that this is the one clue, that I’m aware of, that supports a planned abduction. Given that we don’t know who heard it and we don’t know who reported it to the press I think it’s a shaky foundation to build a theory on.

To be honest, I feel that this report is often treated as credible. Yet written police statements from upstanding members of the community (many of whom are doctors) are dismissed because they don’t fit a particular theory, to me ... this doesn’t make sense!

I guess that even though our investigation is a joint hobby, IMO it carries the same qualities as an actual investigation. Over time, with thought and with new information, some theories become more likely than others.

They may have been doctors but they weren't at work. It wasn't a case conference or surgery it was a group of people from a highly pressurised profession utterly relaxing at the end of a uneventful holiday. With a system of childcare that seemed to be working perfectly for everyone. I know doctors they have to be able to switch off. They have to have time to relax

What you notice on someone's ECG when highly focused in ICU and what you notice when slightly merry and eager to get back to your tea are two different things. They weren't expecting anything other than a restless child.

Plus the only really relevant points in the statements are that she was there at 9.05 And gone by 10 because those fix the timeline.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I think so. Plenty of time to observe who does what. Plenty of time for gossip about them (not with malice or to give a heads up but just normal gossip) to circulate round


They may have been doctors but they weren't at work. It wasn't a case conference or surgery it was a group of people from a highly pressurised profession utterly relaxing at the end of a uneventful holiday. With a system of childcare that seemed to be working perfectly for everyone. I know doctors they have to be able to switch off. They have to have time to relax

What you notice on someone's ECG when highly focused in ICU and what you notice when slightly merry and eager to get back to your tea are two different things. They weren't expecting anything other than a restless child.

Plus the only really relevant points in the statements are that she was there at 9.05 And gone by 10 because those fix the timeline.

This may all be true but it’s not my point. I am simply saying that they were credible people who put their names to their statements while being interviewed by LE. Whichever way you look at it, this information should be taken more seriously than information from a friend of an ex GF of CB who was unwilling to put their name to the information.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Is there not a possible relevance in the fact that MM was abducted towards the end of the holiday that could link it to a planned abduction? Here was a group of parents who walked down a main street, were seen dining together in the restaurant every night and without their children.

In short, I don’t know that we can make this connection.

I think a follow up questions may be helpful: Does it make a planned abduction more likely than either in-situ abuse or a burglary?

 

[Lilly b]

In short, I don’t know that we can make this connection.

I think a follow up questions may be helpful: Does it make a planned abduction more likely than either in-situ abuse or a burglary?

I suppose its getting into his mind, and how he works, I'm going to say, it's like everyone, we look at someone and are attracted to them, or not attracted, so did he see mm, and then realised she was the one he wanted, not any other little girl, was she was his type? , now I'm not saying I'm right about this, just trying look at something in a different way

 

[Okapi]

Tbh @Denis R Tandib the witness accounts of fair-haired men loitering and watching 5a suggest a reccie to me? In other words, scoping the apartment for a planned burglary/abduction/abuse (delete as appropriate).

 

[Ardoch]

In short, I don’t know that we can make this connection.

I think a follow up questions may be helpful: Does it make a planned abduction more likely than either in-situ abuse or a burglary?

What we (the public) know of his past crimes - some planned, some impulsive and the type of crimes - burglary, other theft, and sexual crimes, this makes it difficult to profile him and to decide what he's capable of carrying out at any particular time.

It could have been coincidental that young children happened to be in the apartment when he decided to burglar it, however, had his initial intention been abduction, he'd had a few days to watch and plan it.
He would have been fairly confident by the end of the week that they were going to stick to that pattern. Also, maybe he needed time to include someone else or some other plans connected to the abduction. IMHO

 

[redplanet]

IMO there is an opportunity now to re-interpret the alerts by Eddie as being caused by the actions of an intruder.

 

[Okapi]

I think so. Plenty of time to observe who does what. Plenty of time for gossip about them (not with malice or to give a heads up but just normal gossip) to circulate round


They may have been doctors but they weren't at work. It wasn't a case conference or surgery it was a group of people from a highly pressurised profession utterly relaxing at the end of a uneventful holiday. With a system of childcare that seemed to be working perfectly for everyone. I know doctors they have to be able to switch off. They have to have time to relax

What you notice on someone's ECG when highly focused in ICU and what you notice when slightly merry and eager to get back to your tea are two different things. They weren't expecting anything other than a restless child.

Plus the only really relevant points in the statements are that she was there at 9.05 And gone by 10 because those fix the timeline.

Well of course the time she was last seen and the time she was discovered missing are generally accepted facts, but that doesn't by association rule out the abuse in situ theory any more than it confirms a planned and successful abduction of a live child.

 

[Okapi]

IMO there is an opportunity now to re-interpret the alerts by Eddie as being caused by the actions of an intruder.

Absolutely.

 

[redplanet]

IMO the alert which was by the original investigation most appallingly mis-interpreted was of an item of clothing.

 

[redplanet]

If you were laying on your bed at night and someone outside opened the shutter and window and started climbing in, what would you do?

 

[Lilly b]

If you were laying on your bed at night and someone outside opened the shutter and window and started climbing in, what would you do?

Or should you say, what would a child do? I personally would wake my other half up, if he wasn't awake already

 

[Newthoughts]

IMO there is an opportunity now to re-interpret the alerts by Eddie as being caused by the actions of an intruder.

Yes but with huge reservations. Blood - could be anything. People have nose bleeds, paper cuts etc. Small children are always falling down.

Cadaver scent takes time to develop and Eddie's also alerted to the McCanns car. KM was a GP - very likely to signed death certs for people who had been dead for a while. Especially if she attended care home residents