Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #36

[Mex]

It may not have been either/or, but both.

Going back to the search for rags, the ‘she did not scream’ comment and the possibility of photos at the dam. A rag used as a gag may have been sighted in a photo. It’s a pitiful image, apologies.

There is no decent way to contemplate the murder of a child.

But fortunately there are those who have the strength of character to investigate these things to find out the facts whatever the difficulties.

I think that is what we are seeing first hand in respect of the present investigation sixteen years on since MM disappeared.
My opinion

 

[Denis R Tandib]

When the tents went up initially the indication was there. But as a result of watching the procedures followed during the search, not specifically.

What about you? Animal, vegetable, mineral?

I think the tip-off was that MM’s remains would be found there. It seems to be the second one that has led to two searches there - the first one we know for certain alleged that the body was there. I think searching for device storing a photo/video which showed a 16 year old crime is unlikely. I can’t see a logical reason for anyone to give a tip-off that the pyjamas were there.

So by elimination, I think they invested the money to find the body. Next best alternative is some kind of DNA evidence connected to MM.

Either of these things would corroborate the witness statement who provided the tip-off. Then they have a good shot at a conviction.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

If the perpetrator acted alone, there are a few reasons for the window to be opened. Particularly if s/he were an agile young person for whom it was an MO.

If the perpetrator had an accomplice the child could have been passed through the window in an action lasting seconds.

The point you have made regarding the fact that MM vanished without trace is a valid one in the circumstances. When one remembers that JC also vanished without trace from a village in very close proximity to Luz the similarities in the conduct of both investigations are startling.

How Is The Disappearance Of Joana Cipriano Connected To Madeleine McCann? | Oxygen Official Site

Joana Cipriano was an 8-year-old girl with a playful smile and a tomboy haircut. One summer afternoon in 2004, she left her home in the small Portuguese village of Figueira to go to the store. She was never seen again.

www.oxygen.com

I don’t want to get into another window discussion but if the abduction was planned, exit via the window is nonsensical. It would attract attention if witnessed and there was a door, which could be opened from the inside, next to it. Leaving a door carrying a child is only suspicious to people who knew the child, leaving via a window is suspicious to everyone.

If the perp had an accomplice then it’s a planned abduction.

 

[Mex]

Right.

If you look at it as HCW creating a theory of the case, it makes some sense. CB doesn't appear to have had a fixed abode at the time. He went somewhere late at night where he believed he would be safe. But maybe he did not dispose of the body there because it is a place connected to him.

In a case I have mentioned here a few times, police had the correct theory that the body was dumped in water, but mistakenly assumed it must be a river or old quarry close at hand. In fact it was over 100km away. Without knowing exactly where to look, the body would not be found except by accident.

If CB was travelling somewhere else, the disposal site could actually be quite far from 5a

Agreed. But there may be someone responsible for the crime who shared a very similar profile including keeping mementos of his/her depredations in various ways.

Such memorabilia found and analysed with skill would make for strong evidence in the absence of a body.
I think that is the process we are watching taking place at the moment. My opinion

 

[mrjitty]

I think the tip-off was that MM’s remains would be found there. It seems to be the second one that has led to two searches there - the first one we know for certain alleged that the body was there. I think searching for device storing a photo/video which showed a 16 year old crime is unlikely. I can’t see a logical reason for anyone to give a tip-off that the pyjamas were there.

So by elimination, I think they invested the money to find the body. Next best alternative is some kind of DNA evidence connected to MM.

Either of these things would corroborate the witness statement who provided the tip-off. Then they have a good shot at a conviction.

It's a murder case! Of course they are looking for the body (IMO)

The difference with the box factory is CB owned that place so he buried the 'treasure' there. I don't really expect that he has some secret store elsewhere.

 

[Mex]

I don’t want to get into another window discussion but if the abduction was planned, exit via the window is nonsensical. It would attract attention if witnessed and there was a door, which could be opened from the inside, next to it. Leaving a door carrying a child is only suspicious to people who knew the child, leaving via a window is suspicious to everyone.

If the perp had an accomplice then it’s a planned abduction.

I think there was an accomplice. Whether or not an unwitting one in stealing a child is the question.

 

[mrjitty]

On the theory it was a burglary, there might have been an accomplice. But IIRC HCW played down the idea

 

[RichardKimble]

On the theory it was a burglary, there might have been an accomplice. But IIRC HCW played down the idea

Initially but now? Could it be an accomplish provided the location to search for something from 5a that gives another link to CB, jmo.

 

[Okapi]

Initially but now? Could it be an accomplish provided the location to search for something from 5a that gives another link to CB, jmo.

Do you mean that the accomplice is being discretely backgrounded by HCW because they have provided recent intel against CB?

 

[RichardKimble]

Do you mean that the accomplice is being discretely backgrounded by HCW because they have provided recent intel against CB?

Possibly a deal ? who knows, the searches seems to be focused, that could only come from specific Intel surely, and it's not CB. CB maybe many things but a fool bragging doesn't seem to be in his makeup.

 

[frank-cole]

I don’t want to get into another window discussion but if the abduction was planned, exit via the window is nonsensical. It would attract attention if witnessed and there was a door, which could be opened from the inside, next to it. Leaving a door carrying a child is only suspicious to people who knew the child, leaving via a window is suspicious to everyone.

If the perp had an accomplice then it’s a planned abduction. of the window may suggest the primary motive wasn’t abduction.

I don’t want to get into another window discussion but if the abduction was planned, exit via the window is nonsensical. It would attract attention if witnessed and there was a door, which could be opened from the inside, next to it. Leaving a door carrying a child is only suspicious to people who knew the child, leaving via a window is suspicious to everyone.

If the perp had an accomplice then it’s a planned abduction.

Whether it was premeditated or not is something that after years of sleuthing I still can’t get my head around.
The use of the window may suggest that abduction wasn’t premeditated & it started as a burglary. The intrusion seems identical in MO to the 2 previous OC burglaries. I think CB was responsible for them & many others. Perhaps though, it was something that he’d tried, tested & it worked for him - so abduction or not it was his go-to entry at that time. That said who knows why & when he opened it!

it appears that he was lurking for a long time on several occasions & at all hours, I don’t know whether burglars normally scope out an area to this level & for this amount of time. His timing into the apartment seems significant, so IMO he must have been observing the McCann’s pattern of behaviour.

IMO the primary motive will inevitably be reflected in the course of events thereafter. Premeditated & it would have been (hard to contemplate) more organised. Not premeditated & it would be more disorganised. Re-registering of vehicle may factor in that, or may have been something he didn’t consider beforehand.

I think the body would have been disposed of in a secluded area he knew well.

 

[frank-cole]

Immediately prior to the search I was expecting lots of activity under the waters of the dam and lots of divers. We knew there would be some land based searching, but I wonder how many of us were expecting the volume we witnessed. I certainly wasn’t. And I didn’t see any of the activity I thought I would see on the water.

I wasn’t holding out any hope for the remains of a petite three year old being findable after sixteen years. Particularly if she had fallen into the hands of a forensics savvy beast intent on her disposal and with a vast area from which to choose for a deposition site.

The expert investigators have decided the best course of action to help in solving this case involves testing the soil. To do that, they had to dig it up first. We may have found that a bit unusual. But there was a time when lifting fingerprints was unusual. It isn’t now so I think horses for courses is the motivation you are asking for.

The poignancy that we think that what may be happening here is a search for a stain in the ground which might be all that is left of a fragile and much loved child is incomprehensible.

“The search was at least partially successful. We found a lot of things, objects that look like garbage at first glance. But they can be important for us.” HCW

IMO collecting soil samples was just 1 part of their objective & they may have something else in mind.

One of my theories is something akin to a witness stating - ‘I remember a few days after 3/5 asking CB what happened to his bedsheet, rug, pillow case, jacket etc… ‘he said he buried them or burnt them at the dam because….’

 

[onemoremiletogo]

Knowing Algarve, knowing Algarve in 90s and 00s, having a notion about the leniency and incompetence of police forces there, specially in 90s and 00s, it's easy to imagine that CB (and other crooks) did what they really wanted. And he/they could easily repeat...

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Whether it was premeditated or not is something that after years of sleuthing I still can’t get my head around.
The use of the window may suggest that abduction wasn’t premeditated & it started as a burglary. The intrusion seems identical in MO to the 2 previous OC burglaries. I think CB was responsible for them & many others. Perhaps though, it was something that he’d tried, tested & it worked for him - so abduction or not it was his go-to entry at that time. That said who knows why & when he opened it!

it appears that he was lurking for a long time on several occasions & at all hours, I don’t know whether burglars normally scope out an area to this level & for this amount of time. His timing into the apartment seems significant, so IMO he must have been observing the McCann’s pattern of behaviour.

IMO the primary motive will inevitably be reflected in the course of events thereafter. Premeditated & it would have been (hard to contemplate) more organised. Not premeditated & it would be more disorganised. Re-registering of vehicle may factor in that, or may have been something he didn’t consider beforehand.

I think the body would have been disposed of in a secluded area he knew well.

I’m the same, much of it makes no sense.

I think if CB is the perpetrator, it was a combination of opportunism and luck.

 

[onemoremiletogo]

Whether it was premeditated or not is something that after years of sleuthing I still can’t get my head around.
The use of the window may suggest that abduction wasn’t premeditated & it started as a burglary. The intrusion seems identical in MO to the 2 previous OC burglaries. I think CB was responsible for them & many others. Perhaps though, it was something that he’d tried, tested & it worked for him - so abduction or not it was his go-to entry at that time. That said who knows why & when he opened it!

it appears that he was lurking for a long time on several occasions & at all hours, I don’t know whether burglars normally scope out an area to this level & for this amount of time. His timing into the apartment seems significant, so IMO he must have been observing the McCann’s pattern of behaviour.

IMO the primary motive will inevitably be reflected in the course of events thereafter. Premeditated & it would have been (hard to contemplate) more organised. Not premeditated & it would be more disorganised. Re-registering of vehicle may factor in that, or may have been something he didn’t consider beforehand.

I think the body would have been disposed of in a secluded area he knew well.

Yes, it had to be premeditated. Otherwise it would be more disorganized, yes. Even knowing CB's experience in repeating burglaries in the area and in OC. Try and test first. Yes. And he had a lot of this. Too much green light.
The window? Not sure if it was only used for coming light/sound check while he was in.
An accomplice!? CP?! IMO it seems more to be only him.
Escape and walking to the van/car but then has he risked driving at night with MM still alive? Or just for disposal?!
This was about drugs but...
Where possible, only driving during the day so that my battered 'hippy bus' didn't attract attention, only driving on the roads I needed to and, most importantly, never provoking the police.

 

[onemoremiletogo]

I’m the same, much of it makes no sense.

I think if CB is the perpetrator, it was a combination of opportunism and luck.

Also luck, yes.
Anyway, he seemed meticulous when the risk was higher but incautious with the trivial (e.g. diesel theft) and lax and foul-mouthed when drunk.

 

[mrjitty]

it's not as if doing break ins requires criminal genius

 

[Lilly b]

I'm still sort of thinking, that after 2013, after he was sent a letter ( when he was at the kiosk/shop he had ,)
when the police wanted to discuss mm, that he went back to Portugal (as we no he did). And may have moved the body or evidence , he was back in Germany for quite a few years, so why go back ? After he had rebuilt his life in Germany

 

[onemoremiletogo]

it's not as if doing break ins requires criminal genius

That's why for the burglaries (and worst crimes) he might have done, he should have been seen and caught more times.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I'm still sort of thinking, that after 2013, after he was sent a letter ( when he was at the kiosk/shop he had ,)
when the police wanted to discuss mm, that he went back to Portugal (as we no he did). And may have moved the body or evidence , he was back in Germany for quite a few years, so why go back ? After he had rebuilt his life in Germany

Wasn’t he running away from drugs charges in Germany? When he was arrested in the playground in 2017, he was deported back to Germany.