Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #39

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To be clear, I am saying there a multiple possibilities.

Sometimes police know who did it, but cannot charge for procedural / evidential reasons. Morphew is a case like this. The case has collapsed for procedural reasons, despite the case against the accused being strong. Other times it is evidential. e.g some evidence might be inadmissible, or not prove part of the actus reus, or the witness might not be reliable enough at trial.

Then there are a small number of cases where the reason they cannot find the direct evidence of murder is because the perfect suspect is in fact not guilty. See Delphi.

I agree their failure to close the case does not prove CB innocent. Rather the longer this goes on, the more it suggests an alternate possibility - the theory of the case is incorrect

How likely that is, we can't say, because we don't know what the secret evidence is.
BIB - I just don’t think that necessarily follows. Why should a failure to gather sufficient evidence against a particular suspect mean that abducted by a stranger theory is incorrect? That makes no sense to me.
 
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I can see it but it all still needs something absolutely compelling to drive it which, we have to assume, must be the bit we don't know, the 'if you knew what I know, you too would come to no other conclusion' bit.

I'm just not sure a written confession in Das Buch could be the compelling driver?
Initially my thoughts were that the "only" evidence would be written confessions (autobiographic texts) corroborated (autonomously) by independent testimonies in more than one case (MM included). But, even so, this seems poor for a normally cautious and conservative BKA to get involved and to has proceeded with that worldwide appeal.

In MM's case, I "no longer" believe that it was not CB based on the info we already have on him. But BKA has to have something more palpable than the above (even if not sufficient to charge now). If we will ever know that was "only" the above, I will admit my surprise/disappointment.
In any case, at the moment, I do not see any option other than CB. I even suspect the possibility of his involvement in other horrible cases (unsolved, dubiously closed, still unknown).
 
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I suspect it was something from within CB's vast and horrible collection of photographic images and videos which has made investigators so sure.
For some reason he took the mask off to reveal his face after raping DM, he may have revealed himself deliberately or inadvertently during other outrages.
This is incorrect. Who has provided an statement that they have seen the DM rape video?

It’s important to keep the facts straight.

<modsnip: snarky>
 
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This is incorrect. Who has provided an statement that they have seen the DM rape video?

It’s important to keep the facts straight.
<modsnip: snarky>

MM suspect 'raped US pensioner in Praia da Luz two years before'

The 43-year-old man, named as Christian B, is reportedly in prison for raping a 72-year-old American woman in 2005 after a witness came forward with a statement containing details that matched the pensioner's horrific ordeal

Last year, the 43-old-man German was sentenced to seven years at a district court in Braunschweig for the pensioner attack in the region where MM vanished from the family's holiday apartment.

Details from a witness statements leading to the conviction reveal how an acquaintance of the defendant had found footage of the attack on a video camera at his home.

The man said he had broken into the home while the defendant was absent serving a short sentence for diesel theft.

After stealing a video camera from the house, he said he found footage of the pensioner bound and masked while being whipped and raped.

The witness then says footage showed the perpetrator take off his own mask - who he recognised as the owner of the house.

Cold case police officers, who only received the witness statement years later, then cross-matched it to victim statements in cases yet to be solved - finding a match on details provided by an American widow who was attacked in her home in September 2005.
 
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This is incorrect. Who has provided an statement that they have seen the DM rape video?

It’s important to keep the facts straight.

<modsnip: snarky>
He is then said to have carried out the degrading rape, videotaping the whole ordeal and ripping off his own mask at the end of the attack before stealing cash and a computer, according to evidence heard at CB’s trial last year in Braunschweig, near Hanover.

Details of the rape case first emerged in a local newspaper, but were then reported by two of Germany’s biggest media organisations – Bild and Der Spiegel – after CB’s name was linked to the MM case.

Police in Braunschweig, who are leading the investigation, refused to comment directly.

The witness, an acquaintance of CB, said the elderly woman was bound, masked and whipped before being raped.

He said: ‘Then the man sat on the bed and pulled the mask off his face. I thought: That can’t be!’ He said he immediately recognised CB


<mod note: Edited ^^ to include correct link. Members need to check their links before posting, otherwise posts with broken links will be removed >
 
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IMO you can see how conviction in the hypothesis would build from the tip from Helge B
  • Suspect apparently lived in the area at the time (if not at PdL)
  • Profile matchs well enough
  • Development and conviction in historic rape case (validates Helge B as witness)
  • Proof of theory of someone who breaks and enters and commits violent crime
  • Phone call (places on the scene at approx the right time
  • Jag re-reg - too coincidental?
  • (Poss) written confession in Das Buch
  • (poss) stolen goods from OC
  • (poss) other confessions?
So you might feel at this stage, you are close to getting the big break in the case?
But that only points to circumstantial evidence, two of the points you make would be easily contested imo , the phone call, unless the caller definitely confirms it was CB they talked to and the Jag re-reg that's just a coincidence again imo, a paper trail is left the car didn't disappear, if it was torched the day after then yes that would have been more suspicious in my eyes at least .IMO again there is nothing solid and tangible that currently links CB to MM , that being forensics, and or the girls body, what ever is missing the BKA possibly thought it might have been at the Arade dam area, hence the recent digs.
 
BIB - I just don’t think that necessarily follows. Why should a failure to gather sufficient evidence against a particular suspect mean that abducted by a stranger theory is incorrect? That makes no sense to me.

It doesn’t. It could mean for example they have the wrong abductor.
 
But that only points to circumstantial evidence, two of the points you make would be easily contested imo , the phone call, unless the caller definitely confirms it was CB they talked to and the Jag re-reg that's just a coincidence again imo, a paper trail is left the car didn't disappear, if it was torched the day after then yes that would have been more suspicious in my eyes at least .IMO again there is nothing solid and tangible that currently links CB to MM , that being forensics, and or the girls body, what ever is missing the BKA possibly thought it might have been at the Arade dam area, hence the recent digs.

My point is when they developed the hypothesis they then found new circumstantial evidence that confirmed their suspicions but they never found the conclusive evidence they need for trial.
 
My point is when they developed the hypothesis they then found new circumstantial evidence that confirmed their suspicions but they never found the conclusive evidence they need for trial.
The passage of time is suggestive its unobtainable.
 
I can see it but it all still needs something absolutely compelling to drive it which, we have to assume, must be the bit we don't know, the 'if you knew what I know, you too would come to no other conclusion' bit.

I'm just not sure a written confession in Das Buch could be that compelling driver?

Based on other cases I have followed, I think the combination of the above would be more than enough to validate their investigation without more (but not enough to charge). especially if they had verified other parts of the confession
 
The passage of time is suggestive its unobtainable.

IMO, going back to the wonderful No Stone Unturned, it is likely impossible to recover the evidence unless someone gives the tip on where that evidence can be found.

They've known about CB for 6 years, which reduces the size of the haystack somewhat, but even still, he could have driven some distance from PdL.

Let's also assume that the Reservoir tip was correct for a moment. The problem is, offenders often do not dispose of the victim at a place that is linked to them. He could have driven quite far from the reservoir for disposal.

All of this is suggestive, IMO, that they haven't made the breakthrough in the case.
 
IMO, going back to the wonderful No Stone Unturned, it is likely impossible to recover the evidence unless someone gives the tip on where that evidence can be found.

They've known about CB for 6 years, which reduces the size of the haystack somewhat, but even still, he could have driven some distance from PdL.

Let's also assume that the Reservoir tip was correct for a moment. The problem is, offenders often do not dispose of the victim at a place that is linked to them. He could have driven quite far from the reservoir for disposal.

All of this is suggestive, IMO, that they haven't made the breakthrough in the case.
Agreed look back to the 2020 appeal and specifics of, they wanted to know of his whereabouts between 9 and 10pm on the night in question, the two vehicles and movement of ,the phone call (it must be noted it only said number almost certainly used by CB) recieved a call, the appeal was for who made the call,finally the bit about persons who almost certainly have concrete knowledge of the crime and maybe the place where the body was left.

I somehow doubt if any or all have been answered that's why we're at, where we are.
 
But that only points to circumstantial evidence, two of the points you make would be easily contested imo , the phone call, unless the caller definitely confirms it was CB they talked to and the Jag re-reg that's just a coincidence again imo, a paper trail is left the car didn't disappear, if it was torched the day after then yes that would have been more suspicious in my eyes at least .IMO again there is nothing solid and tangible that currently links CB to MM , that being forensics, and or the girls body, what ever is missing the BKA possibly thought it might have been at the Arade dam area, hence the recent digs.
One salient point is that at the time of MM's disappearance CB had access to a variety of vehicles.
Another is that none of these were forensically checked.

Snip
British detectives believe the 43-year-old was living out of a battered VW T3 Westerfalia campervan in the Portuguese resort of Praia da Luz at the time of MM’s disappearance.

According to the witness, MM was seen at 11am on May 28, 2007 – three weeks after she vanished – coming out of popular local restaurant Tunnels in Alcossebre, some 600 miles from Praia da Luz.

At the time, Leicestershire Police Detective Constable John Hughes issued an international Interpol alert with a ‘risk to life missing person’ warning demanding that Spanish and German police investigate.

He urged Spanish police to check the location for CCTV and witnesses and asked for the German vehicle keeper details. It is unclear what checks were made.

The police report, issued as part of Operation Task, says: ‘A caller has reported a possible sighting of MM, 11am, 28th May 2007.

‘Location given as a restaurant called Tunnels, in an old castle at an area called Cap Y Corp, Alcossebre, Spain. She was seen to leave with a man in a Volkswagen van.
______________________________________

As part of the appeal for information, the Met Police said in a statement that the suspect had ‘access to this van from at least April 2007 until sometime after May 2007’.

It added: ‘We believe he was living in this van for days, possibly weeks, and may have been using it on 3 May 2007.

______________________________________

Last night, The Mail on Sunday asked Scotland Yard whether the van’s registration was the same as the one identified in the 2007 sighting, but the force said it was not revealing those details.


Interesting though that so many years after the event information about the vehicle is not being released.
 
One salient point is that at the time of MM's disappearance CB had access to a variety of vehicles.
Another is that none of these were forensically checked.

Snip
British detectives believe the 43-year-old was living out of a battered VW T3 Westerfalia campervan in the Portuguese resort of Praia da Luz at the time of MM’s disappearance.

According to the witness, MM was seen at 11am on May 28, 2007 – three weeks after she vanished – coming out of popular local restaurant Tunnels in Alcossebre, some 600 miles from Praia da Luz.

At the time, Leicestershire Police Detective Constable John Hughes issued an international Interpol alert with a ‘risk to life missing person’ warning demanding that Spanish and German police investigate.

He urged Spanish police to check the location for CCTV and witnesses and asked for the German vehicle keeper details. It is unclear what checks were made.

The police report, issued as part of Operation Task, says: ‘A caller has reported a possible sighting of MM, 11am, 28th May 2007.

‘Location given as a restaurant called Tunnels, in an old castle at an area called Cap Y Corp, Alcossebre, Spain. She was seen to leave with a man in a Volkswagen van.
______________________________________

As part of the appeal for information, the Met Police said in a statement that the suspect had ‘access to this van from at least April 2007 until sometime after May 2007’.

It added: ‘We believe he was living in this van for days, possibly weeks, and may have been using it on 3 May 2007.

______________________________________

Last night, The Mail on Sunday asked Scotland Yard whether the van’s registration was the same as the one identified in the 2007 sighting, but the force said it was not revealing those details.


Interesting though that so many years after the event information about the vehicle is not being released.
If this witness is correct, then the premise of MM being murdered within a day or two of abduction is incorrect.
 
If this witness is correct, then the premise of MM being murdered within a day or two of abduction is incorrect.
If the child seen by the witness was MM and this can be proved, it raises many, many more premises than that one
 
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