So there's no chance he's alive? That he was kidnapped or something? When/why was that ruled out?
Was foul play ruled out?
Very good question.
As a civilian Search Manager, I have to be very clear about the limitations of my role in the cases we work. The investigation of criminal activity belongs solely to the law enforcement agency having jurisdiction over the case. In Brandon's case, this is the Lincoln County Sheriff. I know he is very dedicated to this case and the department has followed up on any viable lead.
While we do conduct our own type of investigation, our goal is purely to obtain data that will help us determine where to look. We share all of our data with the law enforcement agencies to which we report, but they may not share everything they know with us. This is appropriate, since we don't need to be distracted by things that are irrelevant to our goal--finding Brandon.
This is not to say that we ignore the possibility of foul play. The possibility of abduction, hit and run scenarios, etc. are considered as we develop the probability density map. However, those scenarios generally result in the subject being outside of the search area in the "rest of the world," which is generally too open-ended for a good search plan. We explore the scenarios we can do something about.
Having said that, we do hedge our bets some. We have a standing offer to the Sheriffs that, if they have a lead that would put the subject outside our search area, we would be happy to follow-up on it. We also ask that, if they have strong evidence that the subject is not in our search area, that they share that with us so we can reevaluate our search efforts.
While I cannot speak for the Sheriffs in this case, they have publically said that there is no evidence of foul play in Brandon's case. This doesn't mean that it can be ruled out, just that--as of this moment in time--there is no evidence to support it.
Another role we play in the overall investigation of a missing person case is exclusionary. If we execute a good search plan and come up with no results, that generally reduces the possibility of a lost person scenario and increases the possibility of another scenario that puts the subject outside of the search area, such as criminal activity. There are mathematical models to assist us with this process known as shifting Probabilities of Area.
So, to summarize this case: While there is no evidence to suggest foul play, there is considerable HRD canine evidence to suggest that human remains scent is in the area. As of this date, no human remains have been recovered. While we cannot be cannot be sure that this scent is from Brandon's remains (HRD dogs are not scent-specific for specific individuals), Occam's Razor suggests that this is the most likely explanation.
Jeff