Found Deceased MO - Toni Anderson, 20, North Kansas City, 15 Jan 2017 #6

[Deleted member 155000]

In general, that is what I believe in... probability theory. I don't want to make this a thread on that, but it is my opinion that Occam's Razor refers to the relative likelihood of different hypotheses, *given the available data*

Meaning, that as data changes, new hypotheses and probabilities can emerge.

For example, in the beginning of this case, we had no idea where Toni's car was, but accident and even specifically in water was statistically relevant given the circumstances. It was also the circumstances around the disappearance and details about Toni's life that brought forward probabilities of a stalker or dealings with drugs or human trafficking etc.

Thus why I say garbage in, garbage out. If you have unreliable or unconfirmed data, you are obviously not able to be confident in probability of anything.

As things evolved, we saw things that changed probability. Accident has always been a significant probability. It's the simplest one, no doubt. But If every time someone went missing and you started with just information she was in a car last late at night in bad weather and very little else, and you chose accident via Occam's Razor *given the available data* and thought that was going to be 100% accurate, you'd be wrong a statistically relevant amount of the time. But, you'd be right most of the time, just based on probability.

But probability of 99% is not an excuse to exclude everything else, that's why you investigate. Because any given detail could change probability.

I think many here will agree that Occam's Razor is one of the most misused concepts we see in these cases. The reality is that it doesn't and shouldn't get used just once in a case, but repeatedly as available data changes. This is just a natural flow for an investigation where you know less in the beginning, and a whole lot more at the end.

But I don't think it's best for us to debate Occam's Razor here, as it seems to get done every time people don't like a theory or have another theory etc. I'll respect that you have another opinion and post what I see based on probability. I am well aware that I am a fallible individual and even 1% could be reality, regardless.

To over simplify here, with the data we have now, I lean toward accident.

But I have always said if the data changed, and we found out someone met her there etc, I would assign probability differently.

I do prefer Occam's razor, but I do understand that if we have the wrong or incomplete data, we can't even apply it correctly.

So I say most likely an accident...unless something arises to change my mind.


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[LadyL]

there might not have been a 'conversation' either previous to or after that one text

Her last text s reported to a girlfriend as paraphrasing ..omg just pulled over again.....was that the end of their conversation? If yes, would it be common for TA to stop texting in the middle of something that naturally would cause additional communication between most people. Did her friend respond? Wouldn't most people ask...did you get a ticket...what happened ...where.....u ok??

So was there more conversation or truly was that the last text?


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[MaxManning]

To over simplify here, with the data we have now, I lean toward accident.

But I have always said if the data changed, and we found out someone met her there etc, I would assign probability differently.

I do prefer Occam's razor, but I do understand that if we have the wrong or incomplete data, we can't even apply it correctly.

So I say most likely an accident...unless something arises to change my mind.


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Agreed, I feel as if accident has always been statistically relevant, from day one. It would take like 2-3 data points to be confirmed and I think most would be at 99.9% probability of accident.

I don't think I'm dissing Occam's Razor, but rather the flawed usage of it. Occam's Razor is one usage of probability theory. *available data* is no small detail. Also, bad data can dull the razor. People lie. Occam's Razor is not a truth serum.

 

[MaxManning]

There are some criticisms of Occam's razor. For example, it may not always be possible to determine which of a number of conflicting theories is correct, without the benefit of hindsight.
At the turn of the century, Einstein's supporters, and believers in ether, could not have known the simplest theory for the nature of light. Both hypotheses fitted the observed data, and only the Michelson-Morley experiment swung opinion towards Special Relativity.
In addition, it is difficult to pare away information without risk of throwing out something crucial to the theory. Occam's razor should be a guide and not a rule.

This is what I mean by Occam's Razor being a tool that gets used all throughout an investigation, it's not used at one point. It's used many times to evaluate specific elements of a case and thus point at high probability areas to investigate and thus provide more *available data* for the higher level theories.

All theories must be able to predict the same outcome in order to use Occam's Razor.

For example, whether the car went into the water or not, is no longer something in question. So it's a concrete data point. So now it's about how the car got in the water.

Slope vs Boat ramp -- use the razor. Car damage, location of the car, debris or lack of it on the slope, impressions such as tire tracks or divots on the slope or any evidence pointing to the car hitting things on the slop - ie trees.

They chose boat ramp. Many of us here felt that way as well, as soon as we saw the boat ramp. why do police believe that? We don't know because they didn't tell us that. But we are making an assumption they evaluated the above *available data* and used Occam's Razor / probability theory

Next the question posed is why was she there?

Did she go there unintentionally?
Did she go there on her own?
Did she go to meet someone there?

So again, you might apply the razor with all your data points -- time of day, location and it's usage, communication, etc

unintentional
Is it more believable that she went there at 5:30am because she was disoriented or having a psychotic break? What would have to happen for that to be the case? Were drugs found in her system or in her car? Did she have a schizoprenia diagnosis? These types of things might have the razor slice in the favor of this theory

Intentional, alone
Is it more believable that she went there on her own to watch the sunrise and smoke weed? For example, if she had a dog, would that change our analysis? Would someone telling you that she goes there often to smoke weed change your analysis. That might just have the razor slice in favor of this.

Meeting someone
Did she go there to meet someone? Did she meet someone there before? This is also where communication is what we'd be looking for. If there was confirmed communication with someone, the razor would slice in favor of this.


So you can see that Occam's razor is not just to take 3 hypotheses with no regard to available data and just assume things. That's where investigation comes in. It generates data for you to evaluate with Occam's razor.

Say tomorrow it becomes new information that the iCloud data revealed she was writing poems or journaling at that time. That would be an incredibly huge piece of data. It would change probability of everything.

So, the idea of just applying Occam's Razor without investigating probabilities first, is a bit reckless imo. It's simply not a magic wand, but a tool.

Investigation should focus on things like alternate forms of communication, if she has a dog, if she has a mental illness, if she goes to this park regularly, etc -- occam's razor doesn't produce those data points, investigation does.

 

[Capstan07]

there might not have been a 'conversation' either previous to or after that one text

There was a conversation prior. TA was discussing Las Vegas with her friend. TA said something to the effect she wasn't cool enough for Vegas. So yes, there was a conversation prior.


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[StPauliGirlK]

I personally think the probability is lower for this sugar daddy thing, because it seems an awfully odd place to meet someone for something of this nature.

For what it's worth, it looks like she hadn't been active on Seeking Arrangement since mid-September 2016.

 

[leep]

For what it's worth, it looks like she hadn't been active on Seeking Arrangement since mid-September 2016.

Which was only 4 months


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[Spartygirl]

Toni's obituary:

http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/kansas/obituary.aspx?n=toni-marie-anderson&pid=184578221

This just breaks my heart :crying:

 

[StPauliGirlK]

Toni's obituary:

http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/kansas/obituary.aspx?n=toni-marie-anderson&pid=184578221

No mention of PS Jr.

"Anderson, Toni Marie 20 years old of Wichita, KS and most recently KC, MO, was granted eternal life on January 15, 2017. Toni's life would seem too short to many, but those who were touched by her understood that the quality of existence far exceeds the quantity of time in which one lives. Toni graduated from East High in 2014, attended WSU and UMKC. She was studying Poli-Sci and Journalism. Toni lifeguarded, gave swim lessons, wrote music blogs and was active in Big Brothers Big Sisters. Toni leaves behind her loving parents, Liz and Brian Anderson; grandparents, Gene and Dianne Anderson, aunts and uncles, Kathleen (Roger) Ingbretson, Jeff (Susan) Thomson, Steve (Diane) Anderson, Katie (Rob) Schletty; 14 cousins; and many loving wonderful friends. She was preceded in death by her grandparents, Charles and Kathleen Thomson, and uncle, Mike Thomson. Celebration of Life will be at 11 a.m. on Tuesday, March 21, 2017, at Risen Savior Lutheran Church, 6770 E. 34th St. N., Wichita, Ks 67226. Brian and Liz would like to express their deepest gratitude and appreciation to all law enforcement, Team Watters Sonar, the divers, media, and all the beautiful friends and families who searched, prayed and supported us during this difficult time. Donations may be sent to KS Big Brothers Big Sisters at Kansasbigs.org or Team Watters Sonar at TeamWatterssonar.com"

 

[OnTheCase101]

No mention of PS Jr.

I don't find that unusual. She was 20, they weren't even engaged, and her parents ostensibly wrote the obituary.

I will say as an aside that PS Jr is someone I've felt the worst for throughout this tragedy. Someone he slept in the same bed with every night left one day and just never came home. Then, people accused him of doing it! Amid this all, he loses his job, apartment, and has to move home with his parents. Without an legal bond connecting him to Toni, I bet he didn't even get a chance to keep a few things to remind him of her even though he seemed to be closer to Toni in the 2 years before her death than her parents. [emoji174]

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[OnTheCase101]

I have so many FOIAs I can't wait to file the second KCPD "closes" the case.


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[Pamela_Brewer]

No mention of PS Jr.

"Anderson, Toni Marie 20 years old of Wichita, KS and most recently KC, MO, was granted eternal life on January 15, 2017. Toni's life would seem too short to many, but those who were touched by her understood that the quality of existence far exceeds the quantity of time in which one lives. Toni graduated from East High in 2014, attended WSU and UMKC. She was studying Poli-Sci and Journalism. Toni lifeguarded, gave swim lessons,wrote music blogs and was active in Big Brothers Big Sisters. Toni leaves behind her loving parents, Liz and Brian Anderson; grandparents, Gene and Dianne Anderson, aunts and uncles, Kathleen (Roger) Ingbretson, Jeff (Susan) Thomson, Steve (Diane) Anderson, Katie (Rob) Schletty; 14 cousins; and many loving wonderful friends. She was preceded in death by her grandparents, Charles and Kathleen Thomson, and uncle, Mike Thomson. Celebration of Life will be at 11 a.m. on Tuesday, March 21, 2017, at Risen Savior Lutheran Church, 6770 E. 34th St. N., Wichita, Ks 67226. Brian and Liz would like to express their deepest gratitude and appreciation to all law enforcement, Team Watters Sonar, the divers, media, and all the beautiful friends and families who searched, prayed and supported us during this difficult time. Donations may be sent to KS Big Brothers Big Sisters at Kansasbigs.org or Team Watters Sonar at TeamWatterssonar.com"

BBM-
How tragic to die like that after being trained how to survive in the water!
MOO

 

[jggordo]

I have so many FOIAs I can't wait to file the second KCPD "closes" the case.


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What is a FOIA? Why the need for initials?

Just Wondering...

 

[Capstan07]

What is a FOIA? Why the need for initials?

Just Wondering...

Freedom Of Information Act.

Applies to the Federal Government. Most States have similar laws for full disclosure of government.

Not sure if original poster is claiming the Feds have investigative info he / she wants to see made public or is confusing the term with whatever the State uses for their own "sunshine" laws.


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[BigRedTomato]

Hope I'm not breaking any rules.....but.....

From the beginning this case has been reported as a college girl gone missing and working at Chrome as a part time waitress. TA own social media says stripper. Etc.

To be clear I don't equate being a stripper with being a bad person so that's not where I'm going.

My point is the parents and everyone have painted a very different media perception of her than was reality. The media even seems to be complicit with how they have been reporting--probably just lazy reporting. There is no doubt the parents--and understandably-- wanted their daughter portrayed a particular way and things left out of the public eye.

Now think about packing up her room before any realty facts are known in the case--especially with the real possibility she might not have been deceased at that time.

What potential evidence was packed up? What potential evidence could have been removed, destroyed--inadvertently or purposely--what secrets did her father find in her belongings.

My point is seems like forensically her personal room belongings really could have been extremely valuable in providing important information in this case and now it gone, moved, contaminate etc.

Anyone know if LE searched her room? It would be standard I would think but nothing standard has happened in this case so far.


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Nor do I consider an exotic dancer or stripper to be a bad person. There are lots of ways that people are unfairly criticized and viewed that are nowhere near accurate representations of them. It's easy for me to recognize that Toni was a beautiful person despite whatever shortcomings she might have had.

There certainly could have been potential evidence in her apartment. I'm finding Toni's last tweet ("coogi rave scarf") suspicious. What is this in reference to? And when was it transmitted? To me, it could lead to a black swan or reveal and "unknown unknown". Is this something she wanted or possibly a scarf that she had???

It might mean something or nothing. Does anyone else find this last Tweet on the 1/14 peculiar? She has 5 likes to it none of which appear to be any from her closest friends.

[video=twitter;820422076670607360]https://twitter.com/Tonianderson2/status/820422076670607360[/video]

 

[Capstan07]

Nor do I consider an exotic dancer or stripper to be a bad person. There are lots of ways that people are unfairly criticized and viewed that are nowhere near accurate representations of them. It's easy for me to recognize that Toni was a beautiful person despite whatever shortcomings she might have had.

There certainly could have been potential evidence in her apartment. I'm finding Toni's last tweet ("coogi rave scarf") suspicious. What is this in reference to? And when was it transmitted? To me, it could lead to a black swan or reveal and "unknown unknown". Is this something she wanted or possibly a scarf that she had???

It might mean something or nothing. Does anyone else find this last Tweet on the 1/14 peculiar? She has 5 likes to it none of which appear to be any from her closest friends.

[video=twitter;820422076670607360]https://twitter.com/Tonianderson2/status/820422076670607360[/video]

Coogi apparently per Google is an Australian clothing company and people that enjoy the rave music scene...TA did review music festivals and raves.....see a Coogi as a desired item of clothing.

The problem I have w how she was portrayed in the media...again so sorry for her parents and other family and yes I understand wanting her portrayed as angelic....but not being true and fair might keep someone from remembering something or coming forward.

At the end of the day the best way to get the truth is to be truthful. JMO


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[thekarmabus]

Nor do I consider an exotic dancer or stripper to be a bad person. There are lots of ways that people are unfairly criticized and viewed that are nowhere near accurate representations of them. It's easy for me to recognize that Toni was a beautiful person despite whatever shortcomings she might have had.

There certainly could have been potential evidence in her apartment. I'm finding Toni's last tweet ("coogi rave scarf") suspicious. What is this in reference to? And when was it transmitted? To me, it could lead to a black swan or reveal and "unknown unknown". Is this something she wanted or possibly a scarf that she had???

It might mean something or nothing. Does anyone else find this last Tweet on the 1/14 peculiar? She has 5 likes to it none of which appear to be any from her closest friends.
[video=twitter;820422076670607360]https://twitter.com/Tonianderson2/status/820422076670607360[/video]

It's just a cool rave scarf . Unsure why she tweeted it. My guess a rave was happening soon.


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[tinytena]

There was a conversation prior. TA was discussing Las Vegas with her friend. TA said something to the effect she wasn't cool enough for Vegas. So yes, there was a conversation prior.


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her friend roxy did reply to her text about being pulled over. it jusy said "why". but i'm not sure if we know that it was read by toni

 

[AceDetective]

IV. User Records Maintained by Snapchat and the Process Required to Obtain These Records


Snapchat stores the following information for each user:


• Email
• Phone number
• Usernarne
• A log of the last 200 snaps that have been sent and received (similar to a phone record)
• Date Account was Created


Snapchat does not store any image or video data as it is deleted immediately after the recipient views the image or video. If an image or video has not been viewed, it remains on the Snapchat server for 30 days, and then it is removed.

(source)

Bolding by me.

Above is an excerpt from the snapchat guide for law enforcement. When LE was trying to figure out what Toni was doing in Parkville, surely they would have served a warrant on snapchat, since Toni had an account. So if Toni used snapchat that fateful Sunday morning, LE would know about it.

edit: To clarify, from another source:
"The logs contain meta-data about the Snaps, Stories, and Chats, but not the content."

So if Toni used snapchat to communicate with some unknown person that morning, LE would know she was chatting, and they would know who with, but not the content of the chats.

 

[AceDetective]

Nor do I consider an exotic dancer or stripper to be a bad person. There are lots of ways that people are unfairly criticized and viewed that are nowhere near accurate representations of them. It's easy for me to recognize that Toni was a beautiful person despite whatever shortcomings she might have had.

There certainly could have been potential evidence in her apartment. I'm finding Toni's last tweet ("coogi rave scarf") suspicious. What is this in reference to? And when was it transmitted? To me, it could lead to a black swan or reveal and "unknown unknown". Is this something she wanted or possibly a scarf that she had???

It might mean something or nothing. Does anyone else find this last Tweet on the 1/14 peculiar? She has 5 likes to it none of which appear to be any from her closest friends.

[video=twitter;820422076670607360]https://twitter.com/Tonianderson2/status/820422076670607360[/video]

Two minutes before posting this she retweeted a picture of two Bassnectar pins. The ravers depicted are wearing scarves.