NH NH - Maura Murray, 21, Haverhill, 9 Feb 2004 - #13

[skeptik]

There would have been footprints in the snow. This makes me believe she stayed on the road. The question is for how long?

I agree, she likely left the accident scene on the roadway for some period of time, how long is impossible to know of course.

I do think this possibility is fairly consistent with what we know of her state of mind immediately after the accident. She refused help from Butch, and she lied to him about calling AAA.

We know that she made some effort to leave the accident scene as quickly as possible based on the time short between when 911 was called and when the first officer arrived on scene. It stands to reason that her intent as that time was to avoid contact with police and to leave the scene as soon as possible.

We also know or believe that she took most of the alcohol she bought, Vodka, Baileys, and Kahlua, other than the box of wine, and she took her backback and some of the sleeping pills as well.

Based on that alone it seems reasonable to conclude that she would have left on the roadway, at a run or perhaps fast walk, and she may have taken steps to avoid being seen by any car traffic she could see on the road, which would have been possible considering it was dark and and she could see any headlights approaching with enough time to avoid being seen.

So how far did she go? An athlete with some level of adrenaline could fairly get a mile or so from the scene in about 8-10 minutes even if she was walking fast or jogging. By the time the police arrived on scene she could have been 2 miles from the scene and outside of the search area. Given another 20-30 minutes she could easily have been 4 -5 miles away, far enough that no searches conducted would have even come close to where she could have gone into to woods.

Obviously she could also have gotten a ride once she got a mile down the road, putting her well outside of any search area.

It is also worth noting that the location where the dog track ended is in fact right in front of where Butch parked his bus. So the theory that she walked to that location and then got in a car seems unlikely as either Butch or his wife would likely have seen a car stopping in front of the house.

In my experience people who are in a stressful situation such as after a car accident, and may have been drinking, are able to walk or run quite a distance from the scene just on adrenaline alone. It is also not uncommon for people to walk up to 10 miles to get away from a potential DWI, late at night in the cold and even highly intoxicated.

If she wanted to get away from that car and avoid any police she could easily have done so and been far outside of the search area. That leaves a vast and very desolate area accessible to her to disappear and never be found.

One item in particular that she brought with her is very telling of her possible intentions, in my opinion anyway. That book she brought was titled, "Not Without Peril". Many people have suggested this may be a guide or resource to hiking in the White Mountains, it is not that at all. It is actually a very tragic book comprised of many stories of death by climbers and hikers in the White Mountains, specifically Mount Washington. If a person were considering or contemplating suicide by hiking into the unknown this would be a book they might bring. It is a really great book well worth reading.

 

[PaulR]

I've been following the case of Bill Ewasko (the hiker who vanished in Joshua Tree many years ago, with numerous searches going out to find him, all failing), and one thing the search organizer, who has SAR experience, has talked about is that a lot of searches start with looking at the hiker, where they were, and where they would have gone. With lost hikers, they typically want to be found so they will head downhill (hopefully hitting a river that can be followed to civilization), or they may climb up to get better cell phone service or visibility. I do not know, but suspect, that the SAR team were doing the same thing - Maura would have been lost and confused, possibly inebriated, but would go in a direction that made some sense because rescue was that-a-way.

But if Maura really wanted to disappear - this is not "she got lost in the woods and couldn't find her way out" but something much more intentional than that - she may have headed towards areas that nobody from SAR would have dreamed she'd be going. Think down a particularly steep bank, or into dark and deep woods that offered no visible signs of hope. A place where even hunters don't bother going.

 

[Pettibon Junction]

I kind of believe Skye when she says that the blood in the closet of Claude Moulton's A-frame came from here. Not that I buy for a second that it's menstrual blood, but he's known to be violent and when Fred and his team came in to collect evidence, she was pretty forthcoming with that explanation. Maybe it's because she knew Claude beat the tar out of her in that room and that the blood, when analyzed, would point toward being hers.

It's sad, but the abused often downplay their abuse and will often go to ridiculous lengths to protect their attackers or otherwise justify/normalize the violence perpetrated against them. (I hate that I'm speaking from experience here, but I am.) Skye was covering for Claude but not necessarily for murder.

Still, I wish to hell we could get some results on that carpet sample or the wood paneling to either rule him in or out as a suspect in Maura's disappearance and (likely) murder.

 

[chemgirl]

The November 9 episode of the “Crime Writers on...” podcast, about 17 minutes in, talks about Strelzin, the Oxygen channel, etc. He basically says the case isn’t reopened, since it was never closed. Also the woodchips/blood issue is sort-of dismissed as not of value to the investigation...

 

[skeptik]

Equally likely? Nah. Not even close. We have many reasons to believe she didn't go into the woods; at least 10 errors would have had to have been made for Maura to not be traced in the woods.

There were also TWO FEET of snow in the woods. Absolutely awful terrain for hiding out or making any ground.

Just doesn't make sense logically.

May I ask if you would care to elaborate? What factors make it unlikely that she may have gone into the woods?

It's so funny that in some circles this is in fact the overwhelming opinion, so to hear someone else say it makes no sense or is almost impossible makes me curious.

Thanks.

 

[skeptik]

The November 9 episode of the “Crime Writers on...” podcast, about 17 minutes in, talks about Strelzin, the Oxygen channel, etc. He basically says the case isn’t reopened, since it was never closed. Also the woodchips/blood issue is sort-of dismissed as not of value to the investigation...

Thank you for the link, I listened to the podcast earlier. I admit I tend to agree with the assessment of the 2 hosts regarding the Oxygen series, they said that they were initially very interested in it and began watching it with the intent of discussing it on their own show but early on decided it was perhaps overly dramatic (my words) and had little to no investigative value.

This is a pretty good example of why Law Enforcement does not share information and generally give a 'no comment' regarding active investigations such as this. Look as what happened to Jeff Strelzin and Chuck West, who btw I consider to be the finest criminal investigator I ever had the pleasure to work in my entire career. They take the time to sit with Maggie and Art and make some of the LE witnesses available for interview and what do they get in return? Self serving lies from the Oxygen hosts and/or producers about how the case has been 'reopened' and there are 3 new 'task forces' working on the case.

At the end of the day the primary objective of Oxygen and it's hosts is to get ratings for the show and further their careers, not to actually conduct a thorough, comprehensive investigation. Except for the psychic of course, that was true detective work. :facepalm:

 

[skeptik]

Oh, and one other thing: Atty Strelzin repeatedly used the words “ongoing criminal investigation” and was present at both John Monaghan and Cecil Smith’s interviews. Why? To make sure they didn’t say anything that would compromise the investigation!

He also mentioned that grand jury proceedings were done. For those unfamiliar, you generally don’t empanel a grand jury unless you’re looking seriously to file charges.

Forgetting all the other stuff - the Renners and John Smiths, the Witness A’s and idle online speculation - look at the timeline of bureaucracy and you’ll see a stymied legal system waiting to amass enough evidence to bring a case against a person or persons (at the moment unknown) for a crime. That’s not nothing.


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A couple points as I read back in this thread. The reason that Strelzin was present is because in a very high profile case like this he would be the one and only person who would authorize anyone to speak as it is, as you say, an ongoing criminal investigation.

What many people don't know is that this case has had an absolute enormous amount of resources devoted to it since a few days after the accident. I would say that about 95% of the 'theories' that have been discussed over and over for the last 13 years have been thoroughly investigated early on and eliminated as possibilities.

Second, a "Grand Jury" is also used for the purpose of Investigating a crime. It is called an Investigative Grand Jury, it is extremely helpful in cases like this and truth is the the Detectives at Troop F have used it many times. Based on who from Troop F was on this case early on I can virtually grantee that those GJ's were of the Investigative nature.

I myself have used an Investigative GJ probably about a dozen times over the years, it saves time and resources in obtaining Subpoenas and Search Warrants from judges. To infer that because there were several GJ's early on in this case must mean that they have a suspect would be a mistake. As far as I know there is NO POI at this time.

I concur that John Smith has been a huge distraction in this case, not to the investigators but as far as how the public perceives the case.

 

[scoops]

I think with maura we just have to understand that we haven't been filled in on a lot of details. And taking little snippets or single-events and then trying to work a story out of those, is next to impossible. Maura was depressed, that is no secret. That depression was not the result of her car accident with dad's car, it wasn't the result of something happening the night of her breakdown at work, those events were more symptomatic than triggers.

 

[Pettibon Junction]

I think with maura we just have to understand that we haven't been filled in on a lot of details. And taking little snippets or single-events and then trying to work a story out of those, is next to impossible. Maura was depressed, that is no secret. That depression was not the result of her car accident with dad's car, it wasn't the result of something happening the night of her breakdown at work, those events were more symptomatic than triggers.

On the contrary, I think we've got way too much information, to the point where it clouds the waters. When someone goes missing, every little detail in their life is scrutinized for clues, however insignificant. Most of the time (especially in the case of a woman who disappeared from the side of the road), none of this minutiae ultimately carries any weight. My signature says "there are such devils" for a reason. Anything that happened at UMass or in Hanson matter only insofar as it set Maura upon her course that night. After the accident, whatever happened next was not planned - not by her, at any rate.

 

[skeptik]

On the contrary, I think we've got way too much information, to the point where it clouds the waters. When someone goes missing, every little detail in their life is scrutinized for clues, however insignificant. Most of the time (especially in the case of a woman who disappeared from the side of the road), none of this minutiae ultimately carries any weight. My signature says "there are such devils" for a reason. Anything that happened at UMass or in Hanson matter only insofar as it set Maura upon her course that night. After the accident, whatever happened next was not planned - not by her, at any rate.

Well said, I couldn't agree anymore. I believe that where the train jumps the tracks for the public in cases like this is when the information that is available is neither complete enough or exciting enough, this makes people hypothesize about what could have happened to fit certain theories based on their own personal thoughts and feelings.

If a person is an optimist with an adventurous or romantic streak they might lean toward the theory that Maura ran away to Canada to start a new life. If they have had bad experiences with men or a breakup then it's Billy who killed her, from several thousand miles away.

Bad relationship with your Father? Well then let's obviously Fred sexually abused her and killed her. Are you the type of person who digs ghoulish horror stories? Well then she was abducted and killed by a serial killer of course. Hate small town locals? Then is must have been a creep from the A -Frame house. Are you a cop hater? Of course the police kidnapped her and killed her, and naturally a massive conspiracy involving the local police, State Police, F&Game and the AG's office are all in on this conspiracy.

It's easy, just choose your theory and there will be more than enough 'facts' spouted on the internet to support your own personal hypothesis, it's all out there for the picking. People to hate, people to love, people to blame, and yes, axes to grind in the case of some former (for a few months) police officer who fancies himself an investigator. Something for everyone.

 

[avamonroe]

A couple points as I read back in this thread. The reason that Strelzin was present is because in a very high profile case like this he would be the one and only person who would authorize anyone to speak as it is, as you say, an ongoing criminal investigation.

What many people don't know is that this case has had an absolute enormous amount of resources devoted to it since a few days after the accident. I would say that about 95% of the 'theories' that have been discussed over and over for the last 13 years have been thoroughly investigated early on and eliminated as possibilities.

Second, a "Grand Jury" is also used for the purpose of Investigating a crime. It is called an Investigative Grand Jury, it is extremely helpful in cases like this and truth is the the Detectives at Troop F have used it many times. Based on who from Troop F was on this case early on I can virtually grantee that those GJ's were of the Investigative nature.

I myself have used an Investigative GJ probably about a dozen times over the years, it saves time and resources in obtaining Subpoenas and Search Warrants from judges. To infer that because there were several GJ's early on in this case must mean that they have a suspect would be a mistake. As far as I know there is NO POI at this time.

I concur that John Smith has been a huge distraction in this case, not to the investigators but as far as how the public perceives the case.

Could you clarify more about the Investigative Grand Jury? I can't seem to find anything online. I have found the following (relating to Grand Juries in NH):

"A grand jury hears evidence presented by the county attorney in criminal cases and decideswhether or not there is enough evidence to formally charge a person with a crime. They donot decide guilt or innocence." and "grand jury: A body of citizens who listen toevidence of criminal allegations presentedby the government and determine whetherthere is probable cause to believe the offensewas committed." (Source: https://www.nhbar.org/uploads/pdf/GuidetoNHCourts.pdf), and somewhere I read (not sure where now, will need to find it) that even if a Grand Jury recommends inditement, it's up to the DA to decide if they want to indite.

However I am curious about the Investigative Grand Jury you mentioned.

Agree completely on John Smith.

 

[lizzyk]

Skeptik, I am really enjoying your posts.... very insightful!!
Can you please help clarify something for me that keeps confusing me in this case?
Why is the case being referred to as a "open criminal investigation into a missing person "?
If there is a possibility that she ran into the woods (or ran away) wouldnt the case just be classed as a "missing person "?
The addition of the word "criminal" seems to imply that LE strongly suspect/have proof that a criminal act has been committed against Maura?
Thank u in advance for explaining! X

 

[Steleheart]

Equally likely? Nah. Not even close. We have many reasons to believe she didn't go into the woods; at least 10 errors would have had to have been made for Maura to not be traced in the woods.

There were also TWO FEET of snow in the woods. Absolutely awful terrain for hiding out or making any ground.

Just doesn't make sense logically.

Thank you. For all the times I read that MM likely ran off into the woods I cringe. One does not run in 2 feet of snow. Intoxicated, I would not give someone even 1/4 mile even at a slow trudge. She could go anywhere on XC skis or snowshoes, IMO, but on foot? I doubt it and if she attempted it the tracks would be unmistakable.
Anyway I've experienced it in NH and in VT.

JMO

 

[theides]

Who exactly is this John Smith character? I've seen him around on the FB missing group and heard him mentioned a few times, but I've never gotten a full understanding of who he is and what his intentions are.

 

[scoops]

I don't think it has been helpful at all to downplay the stuff that was going on in Maura's life that led her to leave UMASS. Painting her as the all american girl who just needed a break from a busy schedule, has been so far removed from reality to what was going on that of course its going to lead to all kinds of wild speculation, accusations, conspiracies. because the premise has been built on complete and utter bull crap. Maura had issues. Pretty big ones at the time she vanished. These weren't new issues or things that happened over a span of a couple days either and folks that know maura know all of this.

 

[MzOpinion8d]

I haven't read the book Renner wrote and wouldn't bother. I'm sorry in advance if this has been discussed but curiously wondered if Renner ever gave money from the book to the family (help with any type of reward regarding her disappearance) or if Oxygen offered to contribute as well; since both parties made money off this horrendous case.
I am new to this case and am sorry for the outcome or lack thereof. I hope the family is given answers sooner rather than later. I've read through a lot of threads, old and new, and have the belief that Maura would never have made a new life because of her past issues. It's quite difficult to start a new life and completely cut your family out, given they clearly were involved in one another's life. It could be different for someone who had little to no ties with their immediate family, yet that isn't the case here. Are there a lot of people in this thread that have been following from the beginning, if so, have your views varied over the years? TIA

It would also be nearly impossible for someone with as many issues as Maura had to start over completely and not make mistakes that lead to her being found.

 

[Caffeine]

Thank you. For all the times I read that MM likely ran off into the woods I cringe. One does not run in 2 feet of snow. Intoxicated, I would not give someone even 1/4 mile even at a slow trudge. She could go anywhere on XC skis or snowshoes, IMO, but on foot? I doubt it and if she attempted it the tracks would be unmistakable.
Anyway I've experienced it in NH and in VT.

JMO

Agreed. Trekking though snowy woods isnt an easy feat. Growing up in NH, my parents lived on a decent sized plot of land, lots of woods in the backyard. Our dog used to wander off all the time. In fact I left the backdoor open once as a teenager in the middle of January while my parents were away one weekend.

Knowing they would kill me if I lost our dog I grabbed a flashlight and bolted outside into the woods wearing jeans and a long sleeve T shirt in 25 degree weather to spend the next half hour searching for the dog. Not pleasant at all and quite difficult to move quickly when each step is 12 inches of snow, sometimes covering rocks, ice, branches etc.

Though, without a doubt the worst expirience was being at a house party in High School that was broken up by police. Obviously, no one wanted to be arrested for alcohol possession so many of us (myself included) managed to slip out the backdoor that led directly to a densely wooded area. About 7 of my friends managed to make it out the back, running purely on adrenaline for a mile, maybe 1.5 miles in the dark woods until we made to a clearing which ended up being the back side of a convenience store.

By the time we all found each other, everyone was exhausted, cold and wet. In fact one person didn't even have time to put her shoes on, she ran through the snowy woods in only a pair of cotton socks . Most of us fell down numerous times due to poor visibility.

The big problem here is that once your feet get wet in temperatures like that you are in trouble. Which is quite easy wearing nothing more than a regular athletic shoes and cotton socks trudging through a foot of snow and slushy wet areas.

With that said, I do believe she could have traveled a decent distance granted she stayed on the road. However, if she went into the woods I don't personally think she would have managed to get far enough to where she wouldn't be found for 10+ years.

 

[Ozoner]

If a person is an optimist with an adventurous or romantic streak they might lean toward the theory that Maura ran away to Canada to start a new life. If they have had bad experiences with men or a breakup then it's Billy who killed her, from several thousand miles away.

Bad relationship with your Father? Well then let's obviously Fred sexually abused her and killed her. Are you the type of person who digs ghoulish horror stories? Well then she was abducted and killed by a serial killer of course. Hate small town locals? Then is must have been a creep from the A -Frame house. Are you a cop hater? Of course the police kidnapped her and killed her, and naturally a massive conspiracy involving the local police, State Police, F&Game and the AG's office are all in on this conspiracy.

BBM

Not so fast.

I don't hate small-town locals, but I consider abduction by a local a realistic possibility because that scenario fits the facts while the other scenarios that you mentioned do not logically fit.

Nobody knew that Maura was going to be in that spot at that time, ergo it was not a planned crime–by anybody. That location doesn't get many passersby from people outside the community (probably next to none that time of year, that time of day), so if Maura was the victim of a crime, then it is highly likely that the perpetrator was a local.

I can't say that she was the victim of a crime because I consider a natural death in the woods to be possible as well. She might have veered off the road at some point in order to take what she thought was a shortcut; she might have walked into the woods to relieve herself and gotten lost.

In short, there are two realistic possibilities:
1) An oportunistic (probably sexual) homicide at the hands of a local
or
2) A death in the woods, probably from hypothermia.

 

[Ozoner]

With that said, I do believe she could have traveled a decent distance granted she stayed on the road. However, if she went into the woods I don't personally think she would have managed to get far enough to where she wouldn't be found for 10+ years.

The trouble is, we don't know where she might have entered the woods; it could have been miles from the scene of the accident, in a spot where no one thought to look for tracks. She would not have needed to go very far into the woods to be still missing after 13 years. I wish I could remember the particulars, but I read about one case in which a fatal car accident occurred near the woods during the winter, and one of the occupants was thrown from the vehicle. The accident scene was thoroughly searched, but the victim wasn't found until several years later. He was less than 100 yards from the scene of the accident (far less, I think), yet they couldn't find him.

 

[sthrngrl76]

Agreed. Trekking though snowy woods isnt an easy feat. Growing up in NH, my parents lived on a decent sized plot of land, lots of woods in the backyard. Our dog used to wander off all the time. In fact I left the backdoor open once as a teenager in the middle of January while my parents were away one weekend.

Knowing they would kill me if I lost our dog I grabbed a flashlight and bolted outside into the woods wearing jeans and a long sleeve T shirt in 25 degree weather to spend the next half hour searching for the dog. Not pleasant at all and quite difficult to move quickly when each step is 12 inches of snow, sometimes covering rocks, ice, branches etc.

Though, without a doubt the worst expirience was being at a house party in High School that was broken up by police. Obviously, no one wanted to be arrested for alcohol possession so many of us (myself included) managed to slip out the backdoor that led directly to a densely wooded area. About 7 of my friends managed to make it out the back, running purely on adrenaline for a mile, maybe 1.5 miles in the dark woods until we made to a clearing which ended up being the back side of a convenience store.

By the time we all found each other, everyone was exhausted, cold and wet. In fact one person didn't even have time to put her shoes on, she ran through the snowy woods in only a pair of cotton socks . Most of us fell down numerous times due to poor visibility.

The big problem here is that once your feet get wet in temperatures like that you are in trouble. Which is quite easy wearing nothing more than a regular athletic shoes and cotton socks trudging through a foot of snow and slushy wet areas.

With that said, I do believe she could have traveled a decent distance granted she stayed on the road. However, if she went into the woods I don't personally think she would have managed to get far enough to where she wouldn't be found for 10+ years.

Caffeine, that was my question. if she had walked off in the woods, would she not have left tracks or at least wouldn't bones or a piece of clothing or shoe have been found by summer?