AMBER ALERT NJ - Dulce Mariá Alavez, 5, abducted at Bridgeton City Park, Cumberland County, 16 Sept 2019 #3

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JC40 said:
Can we please drop this red SUV / van thing, it's not relevant and hasn't been for days now.
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I think we're all still "hyped up" about it because of the Amber Alert. People hear Dulce and think "Red Van!"... my coworkers (I live in Northern NJ) are still joking about how vague the Amber Alert is and are counting red vans and saying "Should we report this one!?"

I'm fairly new to the true-crime world and websleuths as well. Is there any possibility of there being a second or updated amber alert...should new information arise (which it doesn't seem anything substantial has)?
 
rosesfromangels said:
Uh, well, how old are the grandparents? Perhaps they started their family at a youthful age as well. Regardless, glad they are supporting their daughter and grandchildren, especially now.

Amateur opinion and speculation
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I would think the grandma is definitely on the younger side being she has a 8 year old daughter (Noema’s sister that was in the car). Only 3 years older than Dulce. JMO
 
TedERoosevelt said:
I think we're all still "hyped up" about it because of the Amber Alert. People hear Dulce and think "Red Van!"... my coworkers (I live in Northern NJ) are still joking about how vague the Amber Alert is and are counting red vans and saying "Should we report this one!?"

I'm fairly new to the true-crime world and websleuths as well. Is there any possibility of there being a second or updated amber alert...should new information arise (which it doesn't seem anything substantial has)?
Click to expand...
Maybe they don't have any new information, but red van has not been ruled out.
 
jjenny said:
She doesn't work or doesn't go to school. Her mother kicked her out of the house. In her situation, how would she be able to support two (and soon to be three) children? But her parents obviously allow her to visit the kids, presumably as much as she wants. What's not to be ok about?
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I could absolutely see how in the circumstances you have outlined, other carers may be a better option/ the only option, but as a mum, I could just never imagine myself saying that “I was ok with it.” I would be anything but ok with it. Just my opinion.
 
jjenny said:
Except some posters are now confused and think that a red van into which she has supposedly been lured, has been ruled out.
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Yes, I understand. That's why it's important to read the thread, or at least the latest posts.

I already replied to that post and several others explaining the whole situation and three times my post was quoted saying the same exact thing that I had just said.

It's probably happened with other posts too, and that's why it's becoming redundant to others.

It's as if we have an echo on here or something. We just keep going round and round.
 
MsBetsy said:
Yes, I understand. That's why it's important to read the thread, or at least the latest posts.

I already replied to that post and several others explaining the whole situation and three times my post was quoted saying the same exact thing that I had just said.

It's probably happened with other posts too, and that's why it's becoming redundant to others.

It's as if we have an echo on here or something. We just keep going round and round.
Click to expand...
Well, since we don't have much new information to discuss, what exactly should we be discussing?
 
I know many who have posted with me for years must be wondering why I'm not linking info like always, backing up ASAP what I've learned through the decades. I embarrassingly admit I do not know how to link, copy, and paste yet from my phone.

But yippee, I'm finally in my office in front of my computer. I don't know if its a gift or a curse to be able to vividly recall so many things for years or decades, no matter the subject matter. LOL!

I apologize to all for the very long delay. As I had mentioned much earlier its one of the reason why I look at each case on an individual basis in cases like this or any other case for that matter based on the known evidence or facts at the time.

This largest research study to date for 775 children who were abducted...later found to be murdered, but also the relationship of the offenders or total lack of to the children are also known. It shows that 26% of child victims were little boys. I believe that number will rise.

I believe through the years they will have more research in this specific area since the last research in 2006. The more data they have the more it helps LE not to become ones with immediate tunnel vision as we have seen happen in several cases.

Again, IMOO, there are far more stranger offenders for both children, and adult victims. Until all of those remain unknown becomes known is why I believe statistical averages doesn't even begin to tell the whole story.

Anyway here it is.

CHILD ABDUCTION MURDER RESEARCH


2006 Child Abduction Murder Study

In late 1993, the Criminal Division of the Washington State Attorney General's Office undertook a 3-1/2 year research project, partially funded by the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, to study the investigation of child abduction murder cases.

In this first research project, published in 1997, researchers reviewed more than 600 child abduction murder cases across the United States, then interviewed the investigating detectives. This data provided law enforcement valuable insight into what investigative techniques tend to be most productive.

Now the Attorney General’s Office has released a follow-up study, including 175 additional solved cases. The additional cases generally reflect and support the findings in the original report with several significant and definite differences:

  • With more killers identified, researchers found threat that the killer will be a friend or acquaintance is nearly equal to that of a stranger.
  • The probability that the killer’s name will come up during the first week of the investigation has decreased.
  • The use of *advertiser censored* by killers as a trigger to murder has increased.
Key findings:

  • In 74 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child murder victim was female and the average age was 11 years old.
  • In 44 percent of the cases studied, the victims and killers were strangers, but in 42 percent of the cases, the victims and killers were friends or acquaintances.
  • Only about 14 percent of the cases studied involved parents or intimates killing the child.
  • Almost two-thirds of the killers in these cases have prior arrests for violent crimes, with slightly more than half of those prior crimes committed against children.
  • The primary motive for the child abduction killer in the cases studied was sexual assault.
  • In nearly 60 percent of the cases studied, more than two hours passed between the time someone realized the child was missing and the time police were notified.
  • In 76 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child was dead within three hours of the abduction–and in 88.5 percent of the cases the child was dead within 24 hours.
Key recommendations to protect children:

  • Be aware that children are not immune from abduction because they are close to home. More than half of the study’s abductions took place within three city blocks of the victim’s home.
  • Be certain that your children are supervised – even if they are in their own front yard or neighborhood street. Approximately one-third of the abductions studied took occurred within one-half block of the victim’s home.
  • Teach your children not to ever approach a car– whether the occupant is a stranger or not– no matter what the occupant the tells them or asks them.
  • Be aware of strangers and unusual behavior in your neighborhoods. Many child abductions are witnessed by people who do not realize that a crime is being committed.
  • If your child is ever missing, CALL POLICE IMMEDIATELY. An immediate response to a missing or abducted child may be the difference between life and death.
Child Abduction Murder Research | Washington State

JMHO
 
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jjenny said:
The van isn't relevant? How so? As far as I know authorities are still saying she could have been abducted by a man in orange sneakers, red pants and black shirt who had a red van with a sliding door and tinted windows. When did that become irrelevant?
Click to expand...

LE have ruled it out. MSM keep running with it. Let me find the link where LE say.
 
Stella8 said:
I could absolutely see how in the circumstances you have outlined, other carers may be a better option/ the only option, but as a mum, I could just never imagine myself saying that “I was ok with it.” I would be anything but ok with it. Just my opinion.
Click to expand...
Even if you were 14 when you had the first and about to have a third child at nineteen? It can be very overwhelming at that age. I can't imagine not wanting help from her family, especially if they are very close.

I think she was just being straightforward and honest. She didn't have to reveal such personal things about herself, especially about her past drug problem.

It seems to me that her parents are loving and accepting of her while being firm, giving her independence and allowing her to be a part of her children's lives. Imo
 
oceanblueeyes said:
I know many who have posted with me for years must be wondering why I'm not linking info like always, backing up ASAP what I've learned through the decades. I embarrassingly admit I do not know how to link, copy, and paste yet from my phone.

But yippee, I'm finally in my office in front of my computer. I don't know if its a gift or a curse to be able to vividly recall so many things for years or decades, no matter the subject matter. LOL!

I apologize to all for the very long delay. As I had mentioned much earlier its one of the reason why I look at each case on an individual basis in cases like this or any other case for that matter based on the known evidence or facts at the time.

This largest research study to date for 775 children who were abducted...later found to be murdered, but also the relationship of the offenders or total lack of to the children are also known. It shows that 26% of child victims were little boys. I believe through the years they will have more research in this specific area since the last research. The more data they have the more it helps LE not to become ones with immediate tunnel vision as we have seen in several cases.

Again, IMOO, there are far more stranger offenders for both children, and adult victims. Until all of those remain unknown becomes known is why I believe statistical averages doesn't even begin to tell the whole story.

Anyway here it is.

CHILD ABDUCTION MURDER RESEARCH


2006 Child Abduction Murder Study

In late 1993, the Criminal Division of the Washington State Attorney General's Office undertook a 3-1/2 year research project, partially funded by the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, to study the investigation of child abduction murder cases.

In this first research project, published in 1997, researchers reviewed more than 600 child abduction murder cases across the United States, then interviewed the investigating detectives. This data provided law enforcement valuable insight into what investigative techniques tend to be most productive.

Now the Attorney General’s Office has released a follow-up study, including 175 additional solved cases. The additional cases generally reflect and support the findings in the original report with several significant and definite differences:

  • With more killers identified, researchers found threat that the killer will be a friend or acquaintance is nearly equal to that of a stranger.
  • The probability that the killer’s name will come up during the first week of the investigation has decreased.
  • The use of *advertiser censored* by killers as a trigger to murder has increased.
Key findings:

  • In 74 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child murder victim was female and the average age was 11 years old.
  • In 44 percent of the cases studied, the victims and killers were strangers, but in 42 percent of the cases, the victims and killers were friends or acquaintances.
  • Only about 14 percent of the cases studied involved parents or intimates killing the child.
  • Almost two-thirds of the killers in these cases have prior arrests for violent crimes, with slightly more than half of those prior crimes committed against children.
  • The primary motive for the child abduction killer in the cases studied was sexual assault.
  • In nearly 60 percent of the cases studied, more than two hours passed between the time someone realized the child was missing and the time police were notified.
  • In 76 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child was dead within three hours of the abduction–and in 88.5 percent of the cases the child was dead within 24 hours.
Key recommendations to protect children:

  • Be aware that children are not immune from abduction because they are close to home. More than half of the study’s abductions took place within three city blocks of the victim’s home.
  • Be certain that your children are supervised – even if they are in their own front yard or neighborhood street. Approximately one-third of the abductions studied took occurred within one-half block of the victim’s home.
  • Teach your children not to ever approach a car– whether the occupant is a stranger or not– no matter what the occupant the tells them or asks them.
  • Be aware of strangers and unusual behavior in your neighborhoods. Many child abductions are witnessed by people who do not realize that a crime is being committed.
  • If your child is ever missing, CALL POLICE IMMEDIATELY. An immediate response to a missing or abducted child may be the difference between life and death.
Child Abduction Murder Research | Washington State

JMHO
Click to expand...

The 24-48 hour window statistics for murder are just depressing. :(
 
jjenny said:
Well, since we don't have much new information to discuss, what exactly should we be discussing?
Click to expand...
There are plenty of other things to discuss without continuing to talk about the fact that the SUV in the video is not connected to the crime. It's not relevant to the case, so there is not much else we can say about it.

I don't mind explaining it, as I have many times, but I feel like some posters are getting tired of reading it over and over.
 
oceanblueeyes said:
I know many who have posted with me for years must be wondering why I'm not linking info like always, backing up ASAP what I've learned through the decades. I embarrassingly admit I do not know how to link, copy, and paste yet from my phone.

But yippee, I'm finally in my office in front of my computer. I don't know if its a gift or a curse to be able to vividly recall so many things for years or decades, no matter the subject matter. LOL!

I apologize to all for the very long delay. As I had mentioned much earlier its one of the reason why I look at each case on an individual basis in cases like this or any other case for that matter based on the known evidence or facts at the time.

This largest research study to date for 775 children who were abducted...later found to be murdered, but also the relationship of the offenders or total lack of to the children are also known. It shows that 26% of child victims were little boys. I believe through the years they will have more research in this specific area since the last research. The more data they have the more it helps LE not to become ones with immediate tunnel vision as we have seen in several cases.

Again, IMOO, there are far more stranger offenders for both children, and adult victims. Until all of those remain unknown becomes known is why I believe statistical averages doesn't even begin to tell the whole story.

Anyway here it is.

CHILD ABDUCTION MURDER RESEARCH


2006 Child Abduction Murder Study

In late 1993, the Criminal Division of the Washington State Attorney General's Office undertook a 3-1/2 year research project, partially funded by the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, to study the investigation of child abduction murder cases.

In this first research project, published in 1997, researchers reviewed more than 600 child abduction murder cases across the United States, then interviewed the investigating detectives. This data provided law enforcement valuable insight into what investigative techniques tend to be most productive.

Now the Attorney General’s Office has released a follow-up study, including 175 additional solved cases. The additional cases generally reflect and support the findings in the original report with several significant and definite differences:

  • With more killers identified, researchers found threat that the killer will be a friend or acquaintance is nearly equal to that of a stranger.
  • The probability that the killer’s name will come up during the first week of the investigation has decreased.
  • The use of *advertiser censored* by killers as a trigger to murder has increased.
Key findings:

  • In 74 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child murder victim was female and the average age was 11 years old.
  • In 44 percent of the cases studied, the victims and killers were strangers, but in 42 percent of the cases, the victims and killers were friends or acquaintances.
  • Only about 14 percent of the cases studied involved parents or intimates killing the child.
  • Almost two-thirds of the killers in these cases have prior arrests for violent crimes, with slightly more than half of those prior crimes committed against children.
  • The primary motive for the child abduction killer in the cases studied was sexual assault.
  • In nearly 60 percent of the cases studied, more than two hours passed between the time someone realized the child was missing and the time police were notified.
  • In 76 percent of the missing children homicide cases studied, the child was dead within three hours of the abduction–and in 88.5 percent of the cases the child was dead within 24 hours.
Key recommendations to protect children:

  • Be aware that children are not immune from abduction because they are close to home. More than half of the study’s abductions took place within three city blocks of the victim’s home.
  • Be certain that your children are supervised – even if they are in their own front yard or neighborhood street. Approximately one-third of the abductions studied took occurred within one-half block of the victim’s home.
  • Teach your children not to ever approach a car– whether the occupant is a stranger or not– no matter what the occupant the tells them or asks them.
  • Be aware of strangers and unusual behavior in your neighborhoods. Many child abductions are witnessed by people who do not realize that a crime is being committed.
  • If your child is ever missing, CALL POLICE IMMEDIATELY. An immediate response to a missing or abducted child may be the difference between life and death.
Child Abduction Murder Research | Washington State

JMHO
Click to expand...
Thanks Ocean! That study is my favorite "go to" report for information as the majority of cases in it were actually solved so what's included comes from facts.

I do remember reading a short "update" report that talked about some changes between the 1997 report and the 2006 report. Interestingly one is an increase in the use of *advertiser censored*. I would very much like to see what has changed between 2006 and today now that social media has become a constant presence in many people's lifestyle.
The entire report as a PDF. It's worth reading.

Also while I'm here, a reminder to those just joining Dulce's thread - regarding the video from the convenience store where Dulce got ice cream, we're not allowed to discuss anyone other than Dulce and her family. That may change but for now anyone else in the store is off limits.
 
MsBetsy said:
There are plenty of other things to discuss without continuing to talk about the fact that the SUV in the video is not connected to the crime. It's not relevant to the case, so there is not much else we can say about it.

I don't mind explaining it, as I have many times, but I feel like some posters are getting tired of reading it over and over.
Click to expand...
Yes indeed. I skip right past the van posts now.
 
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