Oscar Pistorius - Discussion Thread #64 ~ the appeal~

[cottonweaver]

I think the panel will have met at a time the minister accepts as within the guidelines and will have once again given his Correctional Supervision placement the go ahead before a February appeal date.

Okay..
But do you still feel confident that he will be released within say, the next two weeks? (At the early Sept review board meet, his release will be reaffirmed by panel?)

 

[aftermath]

Okay..
But do you still feel confident that he will be released within say, the next two weeks? (At the early Sept review board meet, his release will be reaffirmed by panel?)

I don't know how long the process takes to go through the system. Whenever they meet next, I think they will okay his release like they did the last time.

 

[cottonweaver]

I don't know how long the process takes to go through the system. Whenever they meet next, I think they will okay his release like they did the last time.

Yes, no idea of process time and the sept date either - don't know if that's confirmed by anyone other than U.Roux - may not be credible. But, if it is imminent, I'm not so sure they will give it the okay now.
Last week I would have said yes he will be out very soon, now I wouldn't put a large wager on it.
Would be happy to lose a tenner on it - but no more!

So I'm guessing you think the initial postponement/intervention by Minister was "fair" then. ie. you still have faith in the system now?

 

[aftermath]

Yes, no idea of process time and the sept date either - don't know if that's confirmed by anyone other than U.Roux - may not be credible. But, if it is imminent, I'm not so sure they will give it the okay now.
Last week I would have said yes he will be out very soon, now I wouldn't put a large wager on it.
Would be happy to lose a tenner on it - but no more!

So I'm guessing you think the initial postponement/intervention by Minister was "fair" then. ie. you still have faith in the system now?

I am very dubious about the minister's intervention, but don't think it will ultimately stop a release into correctional supervision ultimately

 

[Viper]

Yes, no idea of process time and the sept date either - don't know if that's confirmed by anyone other than U.Roux - may not be credible. But, if it is imminent, I'm not so sure they will give it the okay now.
Last week I would have said yes he will be out very soon, now I wouldn't put a large wager on it.
Would be happy to lose a tenner on it - but no more!

So I'm guessing you think the initial postponement/intervention by Minister was "fair" then. ie. you still have faith in the system now?

The State's HOA are devestating, I have not seen any other cases like this one where the judge is so clearly wrong on the law and evidence. I suspect that the minister will let the parole board know that OP has a possible murder conviction pending with the SCA so maybe its best to let him kick back in his custom made cell in the infirmary a little while longer.

 

[cottonweaver]

The State's HOA are devestating, I have not seen any other cases like this one where the judge is so clearly wrong on the law and evidence. I suspect that the minister will let the parole board know that OP has a possible murder conviction pending with the SCA so maybe its best to let him kick back in his custom made cell in the infirmary a little while longer.

The minister is a lawyer/ex-lawyer and I would put more £ on the notion that Minister know's where the wind is blowing- in another direction.
The womens' group may have said, effectively ( can't remember the exact quote) as long as he doesn't come out in August which is womens' month in SA., he can come out in Sept... but don't believe it's a credible influence.

State's Appeal plus..
We still don't know - impact of flight risk issue on the review panel etc. which is a sensible precaution??
June may have written another, stronger letter 2nd time around, which could perhaps be considered again?
More pressure from nameless govt. ministers

Anyway, my gut says it's not looking so likely for OP to leave before Appeal.
But naturally we'll wait and see.

(I certainly, have been wrong before, eg. on expected dolus eventualis verdict!)

 

[Trotterly]

Hmm... Got a link?







IIRC she is a nurse anesthetist that tried to refute not only a medical doctor, who had performed thousands of autopsies, but also the medical books' documentation. Yea, I would have gone with Professor Saymann on that one.

At 5.45 in
[video=youtube;LJDyfb_Y-iQ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJDyfb_Y-iQ"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJDyfb_Y-iQ[/video]

BTW the witness is Professor Christina Lundgren an anesthetist department head. I don't know if she also has nursing experience.

She was quoting from Knight's Forensic Pathology and authoritative text which states that using gastric emptying for timing death is unreliable except in certain very special circumstances - and neither Nel nor anyone else suggested that Reeva's death warranted such special consideration.

 

[Mr Fossil]

Karyn Maughan ‏@karynmaughan
BREAKING: another three weeks in jail for #OscarPistorius - his parole review set down for Friday 18 September @eNCA

BREAKING: Parole review board informed #OscarPistorius lawyers yesterday of date of OP parole review.

BREAKING: #OscarPistorius parole review set down for 18 September-day after his lawyers file argument against state culpable homicide appeal

 

[Mr Fossil]

Is the CSPRB reviewing whether it was correct for the CSPB to review OP in June or are they reviewing whether he is now eligible for correctional supervision? In other words, if the former, might they conclude that the CSPB was wrong to review in June and send it back to them to set another review date?

 

[cottonweaver]

Karyn Maughan ‏@karynmaughan

BREAKING: #OscarPistorius parole review set down for 18 September-day after his lawyers file argument against state culpable homicide appeal

RSBM - Thanks Fossil,
What timing.
So they have managed to stretch the initial delay to 28 days extra( 21 aug to 18th Sept) plus given themselves an opportunity to take a legal view of the Defence's argument.

Will we hear a squeak of opposition from his lawyers at this extension? Instead probably just a PR statement from the Pistorius family spokesperson.
I'm thinking June may be meeting with her lawyer and the ANCWL will be contacting her regarding drafting further objections to his release.

 

[cottonweaver]

Is the CSPRB reviewing whether it was correct for the CSPB to review OP in June or are they reviewing whether he is now eligible for correctional services? In other words, if the former, might they conclude that the CSPB was wrong to review in June and send it back to them to set another review date?

Good question Fossil. Sadly I can't look anything up for the next few days.
Doubt it's rubber stamping the previous decision but their processes will surely have to be squeaky clean.
Presumably, somewhere in the rules, it will say the previous decision was invalid as settled too early and eligibility process must start again and take into account any new info./circumstances occurred since June 5th/8th.

New items on their agenda...? Prior to 18th Sept, chances are the Appeal date will be timetabled. Hence pure speculation that Steenkamps write a second letter. Legal view of chances of State's success?
In which case OP won't be able to go into meltdown (vent his disappointment) in the interim.

All IMO

 

[akp]

BTW the witness is Professor Christina Lundgren an anesthetist department head. I don't know if she also has nursing experience.

She was quoting from Knight's Forensic Pathology and authoritative text which states that using gastric emptying for timing death is unreliable except in certain very special circumstances - and neither Nel nor anyone else suggested that Reeva's death warranted such special consideration.

Do you really want everyone who followed the trial very closely to believe what you wrote above portrays the right picture of Lundgren's EIC and cross? Here is that day's proceedings, summarised fairly accurately by Lisa in her blog:
https://juror13lw.wordpress.com/201...ay-27-may-8-lundgren-van-schalkwyk-wolmarans/
See what it tells you about Lundgren's evidence.

 

[Mr Fossil]

Is the CSPRB reviewing whether it was correct for the CSPB to review OP in June or are they reviewing whether he is now eligible for correctional supervision? In other words, if the former, might they conclude that the CSPB was wrong to review in June and send it back to them to set another review date?

To answer my own question, I found this:

14. WHAT IF THE OFFENDER OR ANY OTHER PARTY IS NOT SATISFIED WITH THE DECISION OF THE PAROLE BOARD?

The Correctional Services Act is clear that a decision of the Parole Board is final. However, the Minister or the Commissioner may refer any decision of a Parole Board to the Correctional Supervision and Parole Review Board (Review Board). The Review Board will either confirm the decision of the Parole Board or take any other decision as they see fit which the Parole Board aught to have taken.

http://www.dcs.gov.za/docs/landing/Parole public pamphlet 2012 Eng.pdf

 

[Interested Bystander]

The State's HOA are devestating, I have not seen any other cases like this one where the judge is so clearly wrong on the law and evidence. I suspect that the minister will let the parole board know that OP has a possible murder conviction pending with the SCA so maybe its best to let him kick back in his custom made cell in the infirmary a little while longer.

I wish I were as confident as you. I am concerned the state's HOA contain too many elements that are concerned with facts and not law. As I am sure you know, Prosecutors in SA cannot appeal on Facts. I can see the HOA irritating the judges. I think Masipa did make a mistake in Law but I am unsure whether the SCA will run with it. They are known to be very reluctant to go against a High Court Judge. The fact that Masipa stated another court might come to a different conclusion and it was the reason why she allowed the appeal gives me some hope but not much. I think her statement was probably the norm for this situation. There were profound flaws in her summing up but mostly they were factual and therefore will not be entertained by the SCA.

I think Pistorius is guilty of murder and that he lied the whole way through his trial but in SA there seems still to be different laws for black and white and I expect nothing to change. I hope I am very wrong.

 

[cottonweaver]

Thanks Fossil

"The Review Board will either confirm the decision of the Parole Board or take any other decision as they see fit which the Parole Board aught to have taken."

So they have to negate it- Scrap the earlier decision as he was ineligible at that point.
Now he is eligible, it starts afresh/review all the past PLUS current info/circumstances as it stands and do "as they see fit"!!

 

[cottonweaver]

Do you really want everyone who followed the trial very closely to believe what you wrote above portrays the right picture of Lundgren's EIC and cross? Here is that day's proceedings,.......

RSBM - wish I could open these akp and play "spot the difference", sadly connection here "throttled".

 

[Interested Bystander]

Good question Fossil. Sadly I can't look anything up for the next few days.
Doubt it's rubber stamping the previous decision but their processes will surely have to be squeaky clean.
Presumably, somewhere in the rules, it will say the previous decision was invalid as settled too early and eligibility process must start again and take into account any new info./circumstances occurred since June 5th/8th.

New items on their agenda...? Prior to 18th Sept, chances are the Appeal date will be timetabled. Hence pure speculation that Steenkamps write a second letter. Legal view of chances of State's success?
In which case OP won't be able to go into meltdown (vent his disappointment) in the interim.

All IMO

I have just had a quick look at the SAFFLI Rolls for 2015 so far for this year and it seems that the SCA deals mainly with Civil Law and I didn't see much in the way of criminal appeals. I hope they are up to speed on Criminal Law :scared:. Perhaps they are busy swatting up as I speak LOL!

http://www.saflii.org/za/other/ZASCARolls/recent.html
.

 

[Marfa Lights]

That's an interesting read, thank you for linking it. Do you know if Pistorius ever had the opportunity to plead guilty to culpable homicide?

I am sure Roux could have arranged for that.

 

[aftermath]

I am sure Roux could have arranged for that.

Possibly - presuming the state would have been prepared to settle for CH and drop the DD

 

[cottonweaver]

I hope they are up to speed on Criminal Law :scared:. Perhaps they are busy swatting up as I speak LOL!

http://www.saflii.org/za/other/ZASCARolls/recent.html
.

Hang on in there Bystander.
I can't assure you on the Civil Law "specialty"- never heard of that etc.
Yes, if he is given release on 18th Sept, that wouldn't be a great omen for Appeal's chances of success but at least by then there will be appraisals of the quality of the Defence's rebuttal.

All I can offer, doesn't really help, is what i pasted in an earlier post - many months ago- there may be more in the article but can't go back to check it.
Re SCA judges:
"Some of our biggest judicial personalities are there - people like the SCA Judge President Lex Mpati (all intellectual dignity), Judge Mahomed Navsa (aggressive erudition itself), or Judge Azhar Cachalia .......... The sight of these judges, or any of their colleagues, being broadcast around the world would be one of the best adverts we could produce for our country."

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2014-10-27-the-pistorius-appeal-bring-it-on/#.Va5IEipVikp